Discussion
bloomen said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
I'll soon be turning 60 and I've come to realise that guts are notoriously unreliable. Look for evidence on which to base important decisions. Sure, sometimes the evidence can be misleading, but it's a damn sight better than guts.
Intuition, then. People who think they can trust their gut, or intuition, are just suckers for confirmation bias. They remember all the times they were right, forget all the times they were wrong, and fool themselves into thinking they "just know".
My advice as a near 38 year old reflecting back on the past 8 years...
Look after your body - eat sensible good quality food and exercise regularly.
There is a balance to be found between wealth and health.
You never know when those you love and care for will no longer be there, so time spent with those is valuable.
Look after your body - eat sensible good quality food and exercise regularly.
There is a balance to be found between wealth and health.
You never know when those you love and care for will no longer be there, so time spent with those is valuable.
Abdul Abulbul Amir said:
At 30 years old chaps are on an upward trajectory whilst the lasses are on the way down.
Being single in your 30's is a weird place to be. On the one hand women from 20 to 50 are all fair game, yet on the other many girls of the same age looking for something serious are single Mums, which may or may not be your thing and all the girls you used to "hit up" in your 20s are gradually getting married. If you're the single one in your group then you become more and more distant from your friends as they have kids. Edited by Condi on Thursday 28th April 22:47
TwigtheWonderkid said:
bloomen said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
I'll soon be turning 60 and I've come to realise that guts are notoriously unreliable. Look for evidence on which to base important decisions. Sure, sometimes the evidence can be misleading, but it's a damn sight better than guts.
Intuition, then. People who think they can trust their gut, or intuition, are just suckers for confirmation bias. They remember all the times they were right, forget all the times they were wrong, and fool themselves into thinking they "just know".
He describes cases where each is inaccurate, and would say you were both right some of the time. The skill is to know when to apply each type of thinking.
Loosely speaking, if you are short of time, data is uncertain or ambiguous, and/or you have experience, gut feel is best. If you’ve more time, can get clear data, and/or you lack experience of the topic, analysis may serve you better.
HTH
Btw, if you’re interested in the subject, another book on the subject I can highly recommend: Gary Klein’s “Sources of Power”. He interviewed hundreds of people like firefighters, doctors and air traffic controllers who have to make accurate decisions in complex, high stress situations. Some of the stories are amazing and there’s a graph in there that shows how chess Grand Masters actually make worse decisions if given too much time.
Edited by 67Dino on Friday 29th April 06:29
67Dino said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
bloomen said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
I'll soon be turning 60 and I've come to realise that guts are notoriously unreliable. Look for evidence on which to base important decisions. Sure, sometimes the evidence can be misleading, but it's a damn sight better than guts.
Intuition, then. People who think they can trust their gut, or intuition, are just suckers for confirmation bias. They remember all the times they were right, forget all the times they were wrong, and fool themselves into thinking they "just know".
He describes cases where each is inaccurate, and would say you were both right some of the time. The skill is to know when to apply each type of thinking.
Loosely speaking, if you are short of time, data is uncertain or ambiguous, and/or you have experience, gut feel is best. If you’ve more time, can get clear data, and/or you lack experience of the topic, analysis may serve you better.
HTH
Btw, if you’re interested in the subject, another book on the subject I can highly recommend: Gary Klein’s “Sources of Power”. He interviewed hundreds of people like firefighters, doctors and air traffic controllers who have to make accurate decisions in complex, high stress situations. Some of the stories are amazing and there’s a graph in there that shows how chess Grand Masters actually make worse decisions if given too much time.
Edited by 67Dino on Friday 29th April 06:29
Edited by TwigtheWonderkid on Friday 29th April 08:48
TwigtheWonderkid said:
People who think they can trust their gut, or intuition, are just suckers for confirmation bias. They remember all the times they were right, forget all the times they were wrong, and fool themselves into thinking they "just know".
Each person's "gut feeling" will be different, depending upon their knowledge/experience/ignorance/prejudice/intelligence.“common sense is nothing more than a deposit of prejudices laid down in the mind before you reach eighteen.” -Albert Einstein
"The harder I practise, the luckier I get" -Gary Player.
30s is when life gets serious, particularly if you have kids.
Tiredness, limited free time... etc
If I went back then I would be generally happy with what I did in my 20s in terms of travelling, seeing places etc but I might have been less reserved in my car purchases and told myself to go for something more interesting!
Tiredness, limited free time... etc
If I went back then I would be generally happy with what I did in my 20s in terms of travelling, seeing places etc but I might have been less reserved in my car purchases and told myself to go for something more interesting!
StevieBee said:
If you've a mind to learn something - by which I mean train or pro-actively engage in organised learning; get an MA, PhD or whatever - then your 30s is the optimal period of time in which to commit to it. It's possible later but much more difficult practically and from a motivational point of view.
Get fit and keep fit. Whatever state your body is in by the time you reach 40 it will be the body you'll take to the grave with you - or require considerable effort and commitment to address later in life.
No need to grow up by any measure. In fact don't - plenty of 30 somethings going on 50 and there's no need for that.
At 30 we had our first child, looking back on some photos from the time and during my 30s I was around 10KG overweight at 92KG! Get fit and keep fit. Whatever state your body is in by the time you reach 40 it will be the body you'll take to the grave with you - or require considerable effort and commitment to address later in life.
No need to grow up by any measure. In fact don't - plenty of 30 somethings going on 50 and there's no need for that.
At 40 I bought a road bike. It was one of the best things I've done, been to the Alps a number of times, Swiss Dolomites, Spain, LeJog.
I'm 50 in July and am now 79KG and fitter than I was at 30, and the same weight than I was at 18 when in the RAF. I only wish I'd ridden in my 20s.
So.....get fit is my advice
TwigtheWonderkid said:
My gut feeling is those books will be boring, but as it's an interesting topic and I now have your positive recommendation (some evidence), I'll check those out.
Like what you did there. Thinking fast and slow I found quite dry many years ago but got through it. The book that opened my eyes to the subject matter originally was Predictably Irrational by Dan Airley and it's a little more, for the general reader. Edited by TwigtheWonderkid on Friday 29th April 08:48
Condi said:
Abdul Abulbul Amir said:
At 30 years old chaps are on an upward trajectory whilst the lasses are on the way down.
Being single in your 30's is a weird place to be. On the one hand women from 20 to 50 are all fair game, yet on the other many girls of the same age looking for something serious are single Mums, which may or may not be your thing and all the girls you used to "hit up" in your 20s are gradually getting married. If you're the single one in your group then you become more and more distant from your friends as they have kids. Edited by Condi on Thursday 28th April 22:47
deebs said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
My gut feeling is those books will be boring, but as it's an interesting topic and I now have your positive recommendation (some evidence), I'll check those out.
Like what you did there. Thinking fast and slow I found quite dry many years ago but got through it. The book that opened my eyes to the subject matter originally was Predictably Irrational by Dan Airley and it's a little more, for the general reader. Edited by TwigtheWonderkid on Friday 29th April 08:48
Apologies if Gladwell's name invokes eye rolls, one never knows what's 'cool' in literary terms, seems there's always someone snobbish about whatever one has read
john41901 said:
In your 20s women have the upper hand and unless you are born into a trust fund you are usually only getting started with your career, hence not so much wealth to flash about either. Flip it into your 30s and it all reverses. The female biological clock starts to kick in as your earnings grow and you will be in demand. Being single is no bad thing if you look around at your sleep deprived friends with young kids.... Tread carefully...
Yup, and when you are 40 and divorced it is like shooting fish in a barrel. If you had little interest in your 20s you will find you are beating them off with a stick when you are 40. If you think they are desperate in their early 30s, just wait until they are nearing 40. Throw in the mix the single/divorced women who have children and have managed to get to 40 without owning property and have low paying jobs.
Tread carefully.......
Travel, for the love of god travel!
I didn't, now I'm 36 with a wife and 2 kids. Yes I obviously love them, but they're such a physical anchor in the fact that now I'm restricted right down to your basic family holidays during school half term. Meanwhile my much smarter sister is in her mid 20's without children and is currently spending 6 months working on a nature reserve in South Africa. She's returning to the UK later in the year, before jetting off to Japan.
Health as well. Get your health right and maintain it as early as you can, it's much harder to start a weight loss/fitness journey in your 30's.
I didn't, now I'm 36 with a wife and 2 kids. Yes I obviously love them, but they're such a physical anchor in the fact that now I'm restricted right down to your basic family holidays during school half term. Meanwhile my much smarter sister is in her mid 20's without children and is currently spending 6 months working on a nature reserve in South Africa. She's returning to the UK later in the year, before jetting off to Japan.
Health as well. Get your health right and maintain it as early as you can, it's much harder to start a weight loss/fitness journey in your 30's.
I wasn't awful looking but terrible at actually talking to girls in my 20's. My 30's everything got easier till I settled down again with my babymomma. Then single in my 40's again you just don't stress about it and you're happy in your skin and it's even easier. In your 40's onwards a lot of your competition just look like fat grey Mr Potato Heads so if you've even vaglely looked after yourself and can dress nicely you really stand out. Throw in a decent job and work on not being a knob to everyone and the sky's the limit really.
I’m so glad that in my 30’s phrases like “ baby momma” didn’t exist. Utter pure council at its highest. Sorry mate !
Thing is op: what interest you now? What do you want to do? Moment you start settling and having children ye life will slow a bit while they are young and need more care. That might not bother you but you lose a lot of freedom.
My advice on tattoos still stands. They’re all still rubbish and even worse with the passage of time.
Thing is op: what interest you now? What do you want to do? Moment you start settling and having children ye life will slow a bit while they are young and need more care. That might not bother you but you lose a lot of freedom.
My advice on tattoos still stands. They’re all still rubbish and even worse with the passage of time.
SturdyHSV said:
deebs said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
My gut feeling is those books will be boring, but as it's an interesting topic and I now have your positive recommendation (some evidence), I'll check those out.
Like what you did there. Thinking fast and slow I found quite dry many years ago but got through it. The book that opened my eyes to the subject matter originally was Predictably Irrational by Dan Airley and it's a little more, for the general reader. Edited by TwigtheWonderkid on Friday 29th April 08:48
Apologies if Gladwell's name invokes eye rolls, one never knows what's 'cool' in literary terms, seems there's always someone snobbish about whatever one has read
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