The wet and windy, with occasional snow, 2022/2023 thread

[Puggit]

Met Office explain where we are at with the charts:

https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1598294775215...

[Puggit]

6 days away...

Easterly wind with a cheeky snow-making low pressure. What could possibly go wrong?

[Puggit]

road hog said:

This should cancel any possible snow event


https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/snowf...

Definitely no snow event currently forecast.

What we can be reasonably sure of is the Greenland high and some cool air coming our way. Probably snow showers on the East Coast.

Anything beyond that at the moment is pure guess work and hyperbole.

However, we do have a ticket for the 'big one' - we are in with a shout.

[Puggit]

Still looking good...

[Puggit]

It starts...

https://twitter.com/Met4CastUK/status/159898111811...

The key is how the cold evolves from this point... Above 50/50 chance of proper cold coming.

[Puggit]

Its about this point where some downgrades happen.

Still looking for them...

[Puggit]

Cold spell still happening, but might end after next weekend. However, that's so far away it could be inaccurate...

[Puggit]

Thursday beginning to look interesting...

https://twitter.com/UKWX_/status/15993906410828595...

[Puggit]

MetOffice move from a standard level 1 warning for cold to level 3...

[Puggit]

Cold is still coming - after Thursdays transient snow, coming down from the north and reaching at least the M4 with a sprinkling for all, there's precious little signal for snow.

So... no downgrade on cold, just a lack of signal for snow. But get the cold in, the snow will follow.

[Puggit]

Snowlercoaster has quietly clunked to almost the top... this new one is much better!

Now let's see how long and wild the ride is...

[Puggit]

Seriously - time to start getting excited. It's only downgrades from here...

[Puggit]

Bannock said:

Any particular geographic areas?

Tricky with the snow - but deep and prolonged cold for 10 days seems a good bet.

There is one exceptional snowfall modeled for Devon/Cornwall next week. 40cm possible on the moors when an Atlantic low bumps in to the cold air over UK.

Going to be very costly for heating.

[Puggit]

rossub said:

The first named storm last year was Arwen in late November.

No named storms yet this year that I recall…

There has been precious little Atlantic action. We have a new rescue dog who refuses to go to the toilet in our garden (I guess that's a good thing...). This means we have to walk him 4 times a day, and I can only think of one really soggy walk.

[Puggit]

Situation update... There's big uncertainty caused by an Atlantic low pressure system due to arrive midweek next week. Until its future is resolved, next week's weather is in the balance. However, the trend is for it to go south of the UK, keeping the cold air on us.

Other scenarios which are possible are - it batters somewhere in the southern part of UK with snow, or snow then rain. Or even worse it goes north and brings in lots of mild air behind it.

All to play for, trending towards a winter wonderland next week - but not certain. Maybe 70/30 at this point.

[Puggit]

Bannock said:

Oof, could be another 2009/10 in the Thames Valley area then. Beautiful and great fun, but the gas bill, boss. The gas bill.

I have huge sympathies for those with expensive bills - my inlaws are restricting themselves to £15 per day on energy and finding it tough.

Mrs Puggit locked us in to a 2 year deal in Sept 2021 - she is a miracle worker! We have solar too, so today's weather is great for free leccy!

[Puggit]

And we have the first snow forecast! I know there's already snow on the ground in Aberdeenshire from friends there.

Most of us will have to wait until next week, although there might be some 'surprise snow' over the weekend.

Snow showers off the North Sea for the eastern side, a small low pressure moving from NW, curving over Ireland, Wales and the SW before moving back out SW for western parts.



https://twitter.com/UKWX_/status/16004184683685232...

[Puggit]

What happens when an Atlantic low hits cold air?



One week out - so won't happen exactly like this. Also note the marginality - loads of rain behind the snow.

[Puggit]

CTO said:

so, what we saying then, Puggit? Snowmaggedon or what?

Every year this thread sucks me in, every year it becomes my most clicked on thread when I open the PH browser... and here I am again, a frozen precipitation fiend, craving the next hit from Puggit the Pusher.

oh the shame

Welcome to the mad house.

I'll repeat a line from last week. No certainties, but we've got a ticket and the draw is coming up.

This difficult Atlantic low has the capacity to deliver snowmeggedon in the South midweek next week. There's a real chance, but not a forecast of it happening (yet...) !

[Puggit]

Speedywurzel said:

Since when do we need ott weather warnings like I’m listening to now (on Vine for my sins)? Is it some ulterior motive to condition us to thinking it’s never been this cold before?

Is this the same Jeremy Vine who talked about special cannabis detecting helicopters taking infra-red images from space?