The by-election thread
Discussion
With discussion about the Hartlepool by-election being across a few different threads, I thought it would be helpful to have a dedicated thread to all things by-elections for those interested.
First up, following her election to West Yorkshire Mayor, Tracy Brabin has to give up her seat as Batley & Spen, formerly Jo Cox’s seat. Unlike Dan Jarvis who is able to act as Mayor and MP, the West Yorkshire Mayor also acts as Police and Crime Commisioner, meaning it can not be held by a sitting MP.
Previously a safe Labour seat, in the 2019 general there was large swing away from Labour and the majority was reduced to ~3,500.
Given the national spotlight the Hartlepool result has got, I expect all parties will be fighting hard.
What will Labour do in this strong Leave area?
- select a local candidate, they have a number of long standing councillors for example?
- select a ‘rising star’ who may not have any connection to the local area?
- Bring in someone like Ed Balls - previously MP for neighbouring Outwood & Morley and loves locally?
What will the Tories do? Google suggests that the previous candidates in the seat have had no connection to the area and have been parachuted in. Certainly in my nearby West Yorkshire constituency this is very common… but with such a high profile race I’m not sure this is the best approach for them, personally.
First up, following her election to West Yorkshire Mayor, Tracy Brabin has to give up her seat as Batley & Spen, formerly Jo Cox’s seat. Unlike Dan Jarvis who is able to act as Mayor and MP, the West Yorkshire Mayor also acts as Police and Crime Commisioner, meaning it can not be held by a sitting MP.
Previously a safe Labour seat, in the 2019 general there was large swing away from Labour and the majority was reduced to ~3,500.
Given the national spotlight the Hartlepool result has got, I expect all parties will be fighting hard.
What will Labour do in this strong Leave area?
- select a local candidate, they have a number of long standing councillors for example?
- select a ‘rising star’ who may not have any connection to the local area?
- Bring in someone like Ed Balls - previously MP for neighbouring Outwood & Morley and loves locally?
What will the Tories do? Google suggests that the previous candidates in the seat have had no connection to the area and have been parachuted in. Certainly in my nearby West Yorkshire constituency this is very common… but with such a high profile race I’m not sure this is the best approach for them, personally.
MiniMan64 said:
How many votes did UKIP/Brexit parties get last time?
UKIP did not stand and Brexit Party got 1,678 or 3.2%. However, a pro-brexit independent candidate came 3rd with 6,432 votes or 12.2%. The winning margin was 3,525 or 6.7% so where those votes go could be significant.Some names emerging as possible Labour candidates, including Jo Cox’s sister Kim Leadbeater and former MP for Dewsbury Paula Sherriff being two high profile names.
Lisa Johnson, the GMB union’s external relations director, who is seen as a key Labour power player, had been tipped for the candidacy but said she was not interested. Salma Arif, a Leeds council cabinet member, has been mooted, as has Habiban Zaman, a Batley East councillor. Dan Howard, a Labour party press officer has also put his name forward.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/12/j...
Lisa Johnson, the GMB union’s external relations director, who is seen as a key Labour power player, had been tipped for the candidacy but said she was not interested. Salma Arif, a Leeds council cabinet member, has been mooted, as has Habiban Zaman, a Batley East councillor. Dan Howard, a Labour party press officer has also put his name forward.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/12/j...
If they don't line up behind Kim Leadbeater it'll be another sh
tshow.
Can't see Ed Balls wanting it or being wanted in Starmer's team. Makes you realise how Labour have declined when a second string Treasury bully looks like a star 15 years on.
Interesting to see whether the Batley Grammar controversy becomes an issue. I suspect Leadbeater is the best candidate to navigate this for Labour given her activity in the locality since her sister's death.
tshow. Can't see Ed Balls wanting it or being wanted in Starmer's team. Makes you realise how Labour have declined when a second string Treasury bully looks like a star 15 years on.
Interesting to see whether the Batley Grammar controversy becomes an issue. I suspect Leadbeater is the best candidate to navigate this for Labour given her activity in the locality since her sister's death.
Tlandcruiser said:
Labour need to constantly talk about the Great British people, have a flag in every background when conducting interviews or photos and add some anti eu speak somewhere too. I think that’s the only way they can win back their core voters.
Except while it might impress some of their 'old' core voters, it would not impress most of their 'new' core voters. That's the difficulty they now face, two sets of quite polar voter groups that they need to both vote for them to win. Tlandcruiser said:
Labour need to constantly talk about the Great British people, have a flag in every background when conducting interviews or photos and add some anti eu speak somewhere too. I think that’s the only way they can win back their core voters.
You have a point.The tories were fundamentally divided in Europe for a generation. For good or for bad they have finally united on the topic.
Labour are still pro-Europe, so unless they can convince their pro Brexit support base that they have no interest or intention to rail back on Brexit in any form then they have a challenge.
Labour voters will keep abstaining or voting Tory, not because they are fundamentally Conservatives but because a centre ground, high spend Brexit Tory party is the least worst option.
https://twitter.com/resophonick/status/13912886174...
I think the way political parties use social media is more important than ever with sound bites etc. Which don’t even need to be accurate and it seems to make an impact.
I think the way political parties use social media is more important than ever with sound bites etc. Which don’t even need to be accurate and it seems to make an impact.
MiniMan64 said:
Tlandcruiser said:
Labour need to constantly talk about the Great British people, have a flag in every background when conducting interviews or photos and add some anti eu speak somewhere too. I think that’s the only way they can win back their core voters.
Except while it might impress some of their 'old' core voters, it would not impress most of their 'new' core voters. That's the difficulty they now face, two sets of quite polar voter groups that they need to both vote for them to win. This isn't Hartlepool round 2.
CardinalBlue said:
vaud said:
Loved so much that he lost his seat...
Ah, that was a typo - I meant 'lives' not 'loves'. Tlandcruiser said:
https://twitter.com/resophonick/status/13912886174...
I think the way political parties use social media is more important than ever with sound bites etc. Which don’t even need to be accurate and it seems to make an impact.
The reaction of the reporter is pretty interesting - he's pretty senior in terms of political reporting, not some local trainee.I think the way political parties use social media is more important than ever with sound bites etc. Which don’t even need to be accurate and it seems to make an impact.
Chesham and Amersham by-election won by Lib Dems.
This represents a 25% swing, and turns a seat that has been blue ever since it was created for the first time. Labour lost their deposit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-h...
Excellent Twitter thread by Newsnight’s Lewis Goodall on why and what this means https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/140570626...
This represents a 25% swing, and turns a seat that has been blue ever since it was created for the first time. Labour lost their deposit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-h...
Excellent Twitter thread by Newsnight’s Lewis Goodall on why and what this means https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/140570626...
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