Rolex 'Kermit' Submariner & 'Pepsi' GMT Master Values
Discussion
Hello all,
I'm looking into dipping into Rolex territory with either of the above.
I see values have risen quite significantly with both over the last couple of years, with the Kermit and submariners in general holding a bit more value over a GMT. My question is, where do you see these values going forward? have they currently hit a peak value or would you say these are still yet to climb (wether slowly or quickly) and if so, a purchase in either would make a possible 'investment' so to speak? Or, is there a bit of a bubble happening which could potentially pop at some point?
Im in the market for either simply because i like them. I have found various Watch outlets (i'd rather see them in person as opposed to buying online to see their condition with my own eyes) - have people managed to obtain good discounts with used Rolex, if so generally what % are you aiming for?
Any other input and advice surrounding these two would be greatly appreciated.
I'm looking into dipping into Rolex territory with either of the above.
I see values have risen quite significantly with both over the last couple of years, with the Kermit and submariners in general holding a bit more value over a GMT. My question is, where do you see these values going forward? have they currently hit a peak value or would you say these are still yet to climb (wether slowly or quickly) and if so, a purchase in either would make a possible 'investment' so to speak? Or, is there a bit of a bubble happening which could potentially pop at some point?
Im in the market for either simply because i like them. I have found various Watch outlets (i'd rather see them in person as opposed to buying online to see their condition with my own eyes) - have people managed to obtain good discounts with used Rolex, if so generally what % are you aiming for?
Any other input and advice surrounding these two would be greatly appreciated.
When Rolex brought out the Ceramic Pepsi, I think it was a huge disappointment to everyone that it was only available in white gold. As a result the ally Pepsi's have surged to be one of the most desirable SS Rolexes. It is highly unlikely there will ever be another SS Pepsi after the 16750. The Blue/Red is iconic and provides a perfect combination of colour for jeans or a suit, in the ideal size of 40mm for everyone, a GMT complication, SS and slim enough to wear under a shirt cuff, but still undeniably 'Rolex'.
The Kermit has surged I think because it is more discrete (and with a user-friendly name) compared to the Hulk which is a bit inyerface. But I suspect it may be capped soon because it is, at the end of the day, just a regular Sub of which there were millions, with a replacement green bezel.
The Kermit has surged I think because it is more discrete (and with a user-friendly name) compared to the Hulk which is a bit inyerface. But I suspect it may be capped soon because it is, at the end of the day, just a regular Sub of which there were millions, with a replacement green bezel.
spareparts said:
The Kermit has surged I think because it is more discrete (and with a user-friendly name) compared to the Hulk which is a bit inyerface. But I suspect it may be capped soon because it is, at the end of the day, just a regular Sub of which there were millions, with a replacement green bezel.
Not quite. The Kermit introduced the maxi dial and maxi hands. audidoody said:
I bought my 2002 GMT II Coke bezel from WF in 2003 for £1,900 (box and papers).
Same year, same watch with box and papers is now £7,450 from WF.
Just dumb luck, I bought it 'cos I liked it. Never thought the value would rise at all!
Virtually the same situation myself. Same year, same watch with box and papers is now £7,450 from WF.
Just dumb luck, I bought it 'cos I liked it. Never thought the value would rise at all!
Purchased a 2 year old GMT 11 Pepsi in 2005 for £2300 for the exact same reason.
audidoody said:
I bought my 2002 GMT II Coke bezel from WF in 2003 for £1,900 (box and papers).
Same year, same watch with box and papers is now £7,450 from WF.
Just dumb luck, I bought it 'cos I liked it. Never thought the value would rise at all!
I bought my 16710 (1990) GMT II in 2014 for £2750. Boxes, paperwork, original invoice etc. I geneuinely have no idea what it may be worth now.Same year, same watch with box and papers is now £7,450 from WF.
Just dumb luck, I bought it 'cos I liked it. Never thought the value would rise at all!
Mate bought a Pepsi this summer for £4500.
It's the emperors new clothes, if you can put in the leg work you can find one within a decent budget. I'd be wary of buying at todays inflated prices as if the market cools around Brexit these will drop quite markedly.
You can get a GMT BLNR within a couple of months, I'd suggest getting one and using it as a bargaining tool against a BLRO or Anniversary, cheapest way in I'd say.
It's the emperors new clothes, if you can put in the leg work you can find one within a decent budget. I'd be wary of buying at todays inflated prices as if the market cools around Brexit these will drop quite markedly.
You can get a GMT BLNR within a couple of months, I'd suggest getting one and using it as a bargaining tool against a BLRO or Anniversary, cheapest way in I'd say.
irfan1712 said:
Hello all,
I'm looking into dipping into Rolex territory with either of the above.
I see values have risen quite significantly with both over the last couple of years, with the Kermit and submariners in general holding a bit more value over a GMT. My question is, where do you see these values going forward? have they currently hit a peak value or would you say these are still yet to climb (wether slowly or quickly) and if so, a purchase in either would make a possible 'investment' so to speak? Or, is there a bit of a bubble happening which could potentially pop at some point?
Im in the market for either simply because i like them. I have found various Watch outlets (i'd rather see them in person as opposed to buying online to see their condition with my own eyes) - have people managed to obtain good discounts with used Rolex, if so generally what % are you aiming for?
Any other input and advice surrounding these two would be greatly appreciated.
The only advice I can give is this:I'm looking into dipping into Rolex territory with either of the above.
I see values have risen quite significantly with both over the last couple of years, with the Kermit and submariners in general holding a bit more value over a GMT. My question is, where do you see these values going forward? have they currently hit a peak value or would you say these are still yet to climb (wether slowly or quickly) and if so, a purchase in either would make a possible 'investment' so to speak? Or, is there a bit of a bubble happening which could potentially pop at some point?
Im in the market for either simply because i like them. I have found various Watch outlets (i'd rather see them in person as opposed to buying online to see their condition with my own eyes) - have people managed to obtain good discounts with used Rolex, if so generally what % are you aiming for?
Any other input and advice surrounding these two would be greatly appreciated.
Buy any Male Rolex model at the best current price and if you want to shift it on in 5 or more years you will get your money back. To buy thinking your going to make money - especially in the short term is leading to disappointment IMHO.
Don't forget some dealers, on a £5-10K watch might have a profit of between £500-£2000. Obviously the trick is to buy one as near to the dealers cost price (assuming they paid the correct price!) as possible. Enjoy the hunt.
I'd say buy what appeals with little or no thought about investment potential.
I'm sure some have been swayed to buy a watch that wasn't their favourite because of the thought of losing money. As some have said here, and as I've experienced with a Datejust, if you get lucky with rising values that's just a bonus.
I bought a Sub Date in July, spurred on purely by the look of it, but had no qualms trading it 4 weeks later for a new DJ41 because I preferred its look. The Sub was likely a better investment but I put enjoyment before value.
I'm sure some have been swayed to buy a watch that wasn't their favourite because of the thought of losing money. As some have said here, and as I've experienced with a Datejust, if you get lucky with rising values that's just a bonus.
I bought a Sub Date in July, spurred on purely by the look of it, but had no qualms trading it 4 weeks later for a new DJ41 because I preferred its look. The Sub was likely a better investment but I put enjoyment before value.
LaurasOtherHalf said:
I'd be wary of buying at todays inflated prices as if the market cools around Brexit these will drop quite markedly.
Can't see Brexit making a jot of difference, it's a global market. They're not right hand drive and you can post them so anyone anywhere can buy one from anywhere. Ari said:
LaurasOtherHalf said:
I'd be wary of buying at todays inflated prices as if the market cools around Brexit these will drop quite markedly.
Can't see Brexit making a jot of difference, it's a global market. They're not right hand drive and you can post them so anyone anywhere can buy one from anywhere. 
t hits the fan will see a serious dip.The saving grace is that losing 30-40% on a watch isn’t a huge amount in the grand scheme of things.
Anyone buying now for investment rather than enjoyment is exposed, unless looking at long (10+ years) term such are prices and the general lack of buying knowledge.
LaurasOtherHalf said:
That’s one way to think, however I suspect a flooded market when the st hits the fan will see a serious dip.
Even if the st hits the fan will see a serious dip.t does hit the fan, I can't see the immediate reaction being thousands (or even hundreds) of people slipping their Rolex watches off their wrist and composing an Ebay advert. It certainly didn't happen in the 2009 recession, arguably one of the biggest ever with lots of other markets (property, cars, shares etc etc) badly affected.
Ari said:
Even if the st does hit the fan, I can't see the immediate reaction being thousands (or even hundreds) of people slipping their Rolex watches off their wrist and composing an Ebay advert.
It certainly didn't happen in the 2009 recession, arguably one of the biggest ever with lots of other markets (property, cars, shares etc etc) badly affected.
The market wasn't inflated/heated then. Obviously I'm not going to change your mind and if that's because the next recession won't necessarily affect you as it will many others then that's great for you. t does hit the fan, I can't see the immediate reaction being thousands (or even hundreds) of people slipping their Rolex watches off their wrist and composing an Ebay advert. It certainly didn't happen in the 2009 recession, arguably one of the biggest ever with lots of other markets (property, cars, shares etc etc) badly affected.
But small scale valuable commodities that are in fashion now certainly will in my opinion. Will everyone who buys a Rolex (or young-timer classic car etc.) suddenly need to flog it once the recession kicks in? Of course not. Will enough so that it depresses the market to aid liquidity?
In my humble opinion yes. The whole reason for these items gaining attraction is their supposed liquidity which they intrinsically have in todays market but it is completely market dependant.
And unless you're talking about the rarest of the rare there isn't even the tax free gains to be had as there is in the car market as who really cares about a tax free profit of three or four grand (it's nice, but it isn't going to offset any other investments).
In other words, when liquid cash gets tight for a lot of folk these things will be first to go.
I get your point about foreign markets but having dealt with purchases across borders before I would only say that this will depress the market even further, not save it.
There are still bargains to be had and I'd advise the humble watch fan to try and seek these out. A 7 or 8 grand mass produced BLRO or Anniversary isn't that at this moment in time (IMHO) as lovely as they are.
Having said all that, should your 2004 BLRO GMT drop from £7k to £4k over a few months and you never intend to sell, well it doesn't really matter a whole lot does it?
LaurasOtherHalf said:
The whole reason for these items gaining attraction is their supposed liquidity which they intrinsically have in todays market but it is completely market dependant.
Is that why people are buying these watches? I'd have thought it more to do with the fact that they like them and want one. That's why I bought mine. Outside of those with an interest in watches, I'm not sure they are an obvious investment to most (unlike, say, classic cars which seem to be attracting people who normally would have no interest in such a thing were it not seen as an investment). LaurasOtherHalf said:
Having said all that, should your 2004 BLRO GMT drop from £7k to £4k over a few months and you never intend to sell, well it doesn't really matter a whole lot does it?
Doesn't matter a jot, I agree. In fact the silly prices these things are going for is actually putting me off wearing mine a little, which is ridiculous I know. A couple of grand on the wrist is one thing, seven or eight grand when just knocking about is quite another. As I say, ridiculous really - it's the same watch. Ari said:
LaurasOtherHalf said:
The whole reason for these items gaining attraction is their supposed liquidity which they intrinsically have in todays market but it is completely market dependant.
Is that why people are buying these watches? I'd have thought it more to do with the fact that they like them and want one. That's why I bought mine. Outside of those with an interest in watches, I'm not sure they are an obvious investment to most (unlike, say, classic cars which seem to be attracting people who normally would have no interest in such a thing were it not seen as an investment). LaurasOtherHalf said:
Having said all that, should your 2004 BLRO GMT drop from £7k to £4k over a few months and you never intend to sell, well it doesn't really matter a whole lot does it?
Doesn't matter a jot, I agree. In fact the silly prices these things are going for is actually putting me off wearing mine a little, which is ridiculous I know. A couple of grand on the wrist is one thing, seven or eight grand when just knocking about is quite another. As I say, ridiculous really - it's the same watch. However, like the young timer classic car market, is there a sudden influx of cash rich buyers who would previously have kept large reserves in high interest/yield accounts or similar? Yes I think there is. And like the car market they’re being “advised” by sellers, of the potential increases of value and persuaded to buy something “risk free” where in years gone past they’d have been too risk averse to.
All because “these things are only going one way”. Exactly like the classic car market, it’s how the market bubble expands, it’s happened in cars and it’s happened in watches.
Why is my Sea Dweller worth 25% more than what I paid for it (& that’s retail to trade!), is it better now it’s another year older? Is it any rarer? Or is the market now much, much wider for it?
As soon as that wider market disappears, so will any “profit”.
The second point, is it doesn’t mater to me. I don’t plan on selling any of my watches in the next 15 years by which time we could have had a couple of bubble markets so it’ll probably even itself out to an upside. In the meantime I’ll keep wearing them and enjoying them.
PS, I still maintain for those who do want a long term watch investment, the Best Buy at the moment is a brand new Rolex.
Well, you may be right, perhaps this time it is completely different for some reason.
However unlike the classic car market where cars consume considerable amounts of cash for upkeep and storage, I just can't see people panicking and selling their Rolexes if the market falters. More likely to shrug and either carry on wearing it, or leave it in a drawer and hope things pick up at some stage if they're not that bothered about it and really did buy it purely as an investment.
But who knows, time will tell.
However unlike the classic car market where cars consume considerable amounts of cash for upkeep and storage, I just can't see people panicking and selling their Rolexes if the market falters. More likely to shrug and either carry on wearing it, or leave it in a drawer and hope things pick up at some stage if they're not that bothered about it and really did buy it purely as an investment.
But who knows, time will tell.
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