Premier League 22-23 - who will be relegated?

[johnboy1975]

bad company said:

2002/3 West Ham were relegated with 42 points.

None of the current bottom 3 can get more than 39 pts.

Forest / Everton could get relegated on 39, but that would require Leeds and Leicester to both win all their last 3 games.

As it stands, it's More likely they win 1 (at best) putting the bar at 33 pts. Nick a draw and it's 34. If Leicester get 4 points, everyone else needs 35 due to GD

But it just takes an unexpected win to change things massively. Everton went from 8/13 to 5/2 after beating Brighton

[Gargamel]

I was really only thinking of this season. None of the current bottom five are getting to 39 points.

[JNW1]

Fast Bug said:

As an Everton fan, I still think we need 3 or 4 points to be sure that we stay up this season

I've always thought you'd beat Bournemouth on the last day and quite possibly Wolves in your penultimate game as well; however, with your win against Brighton last night (which I wasn't expecting!) I think 4 points from those 2 games will almost certainly suffice. Anything from your game against City will be a bonus but even assuming you lose that one I still think you're now odds-on to stay up.

From a Leeds perspective the results last night probably mean we need to take 7 points from our last 3 games to have a chance of survival and I just don't see that happening; given our current form losing all 3 feels much more likely....

[Leicester Loyal]

JNW1 said:

Fast Bug said:

As an Everton fan, I still think we need 3 or 4 points to be sure that we stay up this season

I've always thought you'd beat Bournemouth on the last day and quite possibly Wolves in your penultimate game as well; however, with your win against Brighton last night (which I wasn't expecting!) I think 4 points from those 2 games will almost certainly suffice. Anything from your game against City will be a bonus but even assuming you lose that one I still think you're now odds-on to stay up.

From a Leeds perspective the results last night probably mean we need to take 7 points from our last 3 games to have a chance of survival and I just don't see that happening; given our current form losing all 3 feels much more likely....

As a LCFC fan, we need 5 points from the last 3 games, but there's no way we won't lose one, so we need 2 wins 1 loss, as 4 points (1 win 1 loss 1 draw) won't be enough.

We'll lose the next 2, but beat WHU final game of the season when the pressure is off and there's nothing to play for, relegating us by two points.

[TCEvo]

coldel said:

bad company said:

Gargamel said:

I don’t any team with 37 points gets relegated. 36 is probably the target for likely safety.

Southampton, Leeds Leicester look the most likely for the door.

Massive win for Everton and with CL back, I think they have enough to stay clear now.

2002/3 West Ham were relegated with 42 points.

I remember that, still the highest points total to be relegated in PL history maybe without googling it? There was definitely a feeling of 'too good to go down' at the time, the likes of Joe Cole/Carrick/David James/Sinclair/Jermaine Defoe (who we know then went on to offer a get me outta here straight after the last game) etc. I think the team above were two points clear and better goal difference so we would have needed 45 points to stay up...so much more dross in the PL this season!

Remains the case - one of our many accolades...

Palace were relegated from the 1992/93 PL season with 49 Points, but that was over a 42 game season.

[JNW1]

Leicester Loyal said:

JNW1 said:

Fast Bug said:

As an Everton fan, I still think we need 3 or 4 points to be sure that we stay up this season

I've always thought you'd beat Bournemouth on the last day and quite possibly Wolves in your penultimate game as well; however, with your win against Brighton last night (which I wasn't expecting!) I think 4 points from those 2 games will almost certainly suffice. Anything from your game against City will be a bonus but even assuming you lose that one I still think you're now odds-on to stay up.

From a Leeds perspective the results last night probably mean we need to take 7 points from our last 3 games to have a chance of survival and I just don't see that happening; given our current form losing all 3 feels much more likely....

As a LCFC fan, we need 5 points from the last 3 games, but there's no way we won't lose one, so we need 2 wins 1 loss, as 4 points (1 win 1 loss 1 draw) won't be enough.

We'll lose the next 2, but beat WHU final game of the season when the pressure is off and there's nothing to play for, relegating us by two points.

I'm not sure another 5 points on top of your existing 30 would be enough anyway? I certainly see Everton getting at least another 4 (which would take them to a minimum of 36) and I can see Forest managing at least 3 from their remaining games as well (which would also take them to 36). That's why I think we'll need at least 37 to stand a chance of staying up which is in turn why I think we're done for - given the opposition we'd struggle to get 2 wins and a draw even if we were playing well but playing the way we are we've got no chance.

[Fast Bug]

I'm hoping for 4 points against Wolves and Bournemouth to see us safe. I can't see us getting anything out of City, even though I think we got a point off them earlier this season.

I just hope if we survive (again) we learn our lesson and don't circle the plug hole next season. We need the owner to just write the cheques and let everyone else do their job. If DCL stays fit next season we stand a better chance of taking any potential points deduction on the chin and surviving.

[Leicester Loyal]

JNW1 said:

I'm not sure another 5 points on top of your existing 30 would be enough anyway? I certainly see Everton getting at least another 4 (which would take them to a minimum of 36) and I can see Forest managing at least 3 from their remaining games as well (which would also take them to 36). That's why I think we'll need at least 37 to stand a chance of staying up which is in turn why I think we're done for - given the opposition we'd struggle to get 2 wins and a draw even if we were playing well but playing the way we are we've got no chance.

Not sure guess we'll see, 35 or 36 with our GD (will be the best from below WHU) it doesn't really make much of a difference anyway as we'll need 2 wins, we won't go unbeaten vs. Liverpool, Newcastle and WHU.

I hope our owners are already planning for life in the Championship but according to local reports from journalists the team are only now just starting to have growing relegation fears You couldn't write it.

[Pieman68]

Honest opinion and it pains me to say it but I think Leicester, Everton and Forest playing for the last spot.

I can't see Leeds picking up another point, they're gutless.

Certainly can't see us picking up anything against Newcastle. West Ham highly unlikely as they seem to have found a bit of form. Spurs - well who knows which Spurs will turn up up but even on a bad day I think they beat us.

Victor Orta has a massive amount to answer for. Majority of his signings were awful, as were managerial appointments (apart from dropping lucky with Bielsa). The delay in getting rid of Ted Lasso and then the shambles of trying to replace him in February with a load of glory targets, before bringing in Gracia when he was already undermined as a 5th choice for the job.

Losing Adams and Wober to injury in the international break just as we were starting to look more solid has probably been the final nail in the coffin (despite Wober being back now)

Big Sam was just brought in to placate the growing unrest in the stands. Poisoned chalice and on a hiding to nothing with only 4 games remaining

[aeropilot]

Pieman68 said:

Honest opinion and it pains me to say it but I think Leicester, Everton and Forest playing for the last spot.

I can't see Leeds picking up another point, they're gutless.

Certainly can't see us picking up anything against Newcastle. West Ham highly unlikely as they seem to have found a bit of form. Spurs - well who knows which Spurs will turn up up but even on a bad day I think they beat us.

I think your right, and Leicester are in the worst position of the 3 with who they have left to play, and Forest and Everton already have the points advantage.

However, no one expected Everton to beat Brighton 1-5 at Brighton, so could there yet be another twist in the tale and it all comes down to what happens on the last day?

[aeropilot]

So, that's Forest now safe, so now down to 2 from 3 to join Saints in relegation.

[Gargamel]

So happy Forest don’t need anything on the last day. We were fantastic today.

[Hub]

Everton will beat Bournemouth, we've given up again now there's no threat of relegation - so I think that's it now.

[coldel]

Yes Bournemouth are the slide again. I think Leicester will beat West Ham, I can see a lot of players given the weekend off in preparation for the ECL final.
Everton of course are the only team with the destiny in their own hands, but they are so erratic at the moment.

[bad company]

coldel said:

Yes Bournemouth are the slide again. I think Leicester will beat West Ham, I can see a lot of players given the weekend off in preparation for the ECL final.
Everton of course are the only team with the destiny in their own hands, but they are so erratic at the moment.

I criticised Moyes for putting out a weak West Ham team v Brentford before Premiership safety was guaranteed. This time I reckon resting key players is sensible imo.

Leeds & Leicester will be relegated I reckon.

[coldel]

It was a calculated risk. all the teams below us bar Forest threw away points it could be a lot closer than it actually ended up being.
35 points being enough to stay up this year is really beyond a joke, Everton could stay up on 33 points!

[Gargamel]

coldel said:

It was a calculated risk. all the teams below us bar Forest threw away points it could be a lot closer than it actually ended up being.
35 points being enough to stay up this year is really beyond a joke, Everton could stay up on 33 points!

That's pretty crazy, especially as if Leeds, Leicester and Southampton go down then all the promoted clubs from last year are all staying up. Had the bar been set at 40 points, then for sure it would have been a struggle.

[V8covin]

Gargamel said:

That's pretty crazy, especially as if Leeds, Leicester and Southampton go down then all the promoted clubs from last year are all staying up. Had the bar been set at 40 points, then for sure it would have been a struggle.

All the promoted clubs are already safe

[lowdrag]

I must admit I found the Leicester - Newcastle formation pretty cool. Not often you see a 1-10-0-0 layout these days. But hero to zero seems to be their goal this year. League champions to championship is a neat achievement

[johnboy1975]

coldel said:

It was a calculated risk. all the teams below us bar Forest threw away points it could be a lot closer than it actually ended up being.
35 points being enough to stay up this year is really beyond a joke, Everton could stay up on 33 points!

Not that much of an outlier, in fact pretty much bang on the average if Everton win and survive on 36pts. 40 points has only been needed 4 times in the 20 team era (95/96 onwards).

33 would indeed be the second lowest though, although that's pretty unlikely to be enough.


https://www.101greatgoals.com/news/how-many-points...

said:

Outside of the above 34 points were needed on four occasions, 35 on four occasions, 36 once, 37 five times, 38 once, 39 twice and 31 once back in 2009/10.

[B]This works out at an average of 35.7[b], so essentially 36, points needed to stay in the Premier League each campaign.