Has Scientific Innovation Slowed Down?
Discussion
eldar said:
'His own prediction on reviewing the data is that there's an 80% probability that the singularity will occur in a range of 5 to 100 years.'That's like a weather forecaster saying it will be sunny with some clouds and probably a bit of rain and the wind will be variable.
blinkythefish said:
I think you are viewing past breakthroughs with a kind of hindsight.
Take something like the invention of the motor car. It wasn't a sudden appearence of a car overnight, there were countless incremental improvements to exisitng tech to get there. Say it started at horses and carts - wheels, suspension - through steam power - static engines becoming mobile engines(trains) becoming steam cars etc. Also there were lots of "minor" discoveries required along the way in metalurgy, chemistry, manufacturing etc. No one of which would have seemed like a huge deal to people outwith the fields at the time.
Same applies to Aeroplanes, Computers, Telephone, Television, take your pick of the revolutionary technologies.
Looking back it seems like there was a time before these things existed and now, but actually there was a gradual change. You seem to want some huge game changing technology (although I'm not sure what: Space elevator? Reconstructive surgery? Augmented Biology? Teleportation(if even possible)? Disease Cures? Hot fussion? Cloaking?) to just appear overnight, but they too will involve incremental improvements.
The reality is any "future tech" you can imagine, or some pre-requisite technology for it, is probably being worked on as we speak.
While I agree that it's usually an amalgam of gradually advancing technologies that create the big breakthroughs I still think their is a definite point where it changes from look at all these clever little ideas, to Eureka, we just invented the auto-mobile.Take something like the invention of the motor car. It wasn't a sudden appearence of a car overnight, there were countless incremental improvements to exisitng tech to get there. Say it started at horses and carts - wheels, suspension - through steam power - static engines becoming mobile engines(trains) becoming steam cars etc. Also there were lots of "minor" discoveries required along the way in metalurgy, chemistry, manufacturing etc. No one of which would have seemed like a huge deal to people outwith the fields at the time.
Same applies to Aeroplanes, Computers, Telephone, Television, take your pick of the revolutionary technologies.
Looking back it seems like there was a time before these things existed and now, but actually there was a gradual change. You seem to want some huge game changing technology (although I'm not sure what: Space elevator? Reconstructive surgery? Augmented Biology? Teleportation(if even possible)? Disease Cures? Hot fussion? Cloaking?) to just appear overnight, but they too will involve incremental improvements.
The reality is any "future tech" you can imagine, or some pre-requisite technology for it, is probably being worked on as we speak.
For cars you could say it was the Model T, for air planes possibly the Wright Brothers (although I know their has been some debate around that). My point is that their is usually a flashpoint where it all seems to come together and the results then fundamentally change the way we live. The internet is probably the biggest development for my generation but that was 20 years ago now, I guess I'm just keen to see what the next big step change will be and where it will come from.
My two predictions for game changers we might see in the next 10-20 years are the solving of fusion power or some other form of energy and the development of genetics\microbiology to a point where we can eradicate most forms of illness in the womb and even prolong life although I predict the last might have serious implications on earth's natural resources.
Guvernator said:
blinkythefish said:
I think you are viewing past breakthroughs with a kind of hindsight.
Take something like the invention of the motor car. It wasn't a sudden appearence of a car overnight, there were countless incremental improvements to exisitng tech to get there. Say it started at horses and carts - wheels, suspension - through steam power - static engines becoming mobile engines(trains) becoming steam cars etc. Also there were lots of "minor" discoveries required along the way in metalurgy, chemistry, manufacturing etc. No one of which would have seemed like a huge deal to people outwith the fields at the time.
Same applies to Aeroplanes, Computers, Telephone, Television, take your pick of the revolutionary technologies.
Looking back it seems like there was a time before these things existed and now, but actually there was a gradual change. You seem to want some huge game changing technology (although I'm not sure what: Space elevator? Reconstructive surgery? Augmented Biology? Teleportation(if even possible)? Disease Cures? Hot fussion? Cloaking?) to just appear overnight, but they too will involve incremental improvements.
The reality is any "future tech" you can imagine, or some pre-requisite technology for it, is probably being worked on as we speak.
While I agree that it's usually an amalgam of gradually advancing technologies that create the big breakthroughs I still think their is a definite point where it changes from look at all these clever little ideas, to Eureka, we just invented the auto-mobile.Take something like the invention of the motor car. It wasn't a sudden appearence of a car overnight, there were countless incremental improvements to exisitng tech to get there. Say it started at horses and carts - wheels, suspension - through steam power - static engines becoming mobile engines(trains) becoming steam cars etc. Also there were lots of "minor" discoveries required along the way in metalurgy, chemistry, manufacturing etc. No one of which would have seemed like a huge deal to people outwith the fields at the time.
Same applies to Aeroplanes, Computers, Telephone, Television, take your pick of the revolutionary technologies.
Looking back it seems like there was a time before these things existed and now, but actually there was a gradual change. You seem to want some huge game changing technology (although I'm not sure what: Space elevator? Reconstructive surgery? Augmented Biology? Teleportation(if even possible)? Disease Cures? Hot fussion? Cloaking?) to just appear overnight, but they too will involve incremental improvements.
The reality is any "future tech" you can imagine, or some pre-requisite technology for it, is probably being worked on as we speak.
For cars you could say it was the Model T, for air planes possibly the Wright Brothers (although I know their has been some debate around that). My point is that their is usually a flashpoint where it all seems to come together and the results then fundamentally change the way we live. The internet is probably the biggest development for my generation but that was 20 years ago now, I guess I'm just keen to see what the next big step change will be and where it will come from.
My two predictions for game changers we might see in the next 10-20 years are the solving of fusion power or some other form of energy and the development of genetics\microbiology to a point where we can eradicate most forms of illness in the womb and even prolong life although I predict the last might have serious implications on earth's natural resources.
At the time they were invented there were some who saw the potential, but it still took effort and time to develop into a world changer. Graphene has been mentioned several times on this thread, it is the same thing. It is a totally new substance, which has been recognised as having potential to have a major impact across many different fields, but it is not going to happen overnight. It will however probably happen in a shorter timespan than it did for inventions at the turn of the last century.
Guvernator said:
While I agree that it's usually an amalgam of gradually advancing technologies that create the big breakthroughs I still think their is a definite point where it changes from look at all these clever little ideas, to Eureka, we just invented the auto-mobile.
For cars you could say it was the Model T, for air planes possibly the Wright Brothers (although I know their has been some debate around that). My point is that their is usually a flashpoint where it all seems to come together and the results then fundamentally change the way we live. The internet is probably the biggest development for my generation but that was 20 years ago now, I guess I'm just keen to see what the next big step change will be and where it will come from.
My two predictions for game changers we might see in the next 10-20 years are the solving of fusion power or some other form of energy and the development of genetics\microbiology to a point where we can eradicate most forms of illness in the womb and even prolong life although I predict the last might have serious implications on earth's natural resources.
I think there's plenty we can still discover, and are doing continually still. Graphene has quite exciting possibilities.For cars you could say it was the Model T, for air planes possibly the Wright Brothers (although I know their has been some debate around that). My point is that their is usually a flashpoint where it all seems to come together and the results then fundamentally change the way we live. The internet is probably the biggest development for my generation but that was 20 years ago now, I guess I'm just keen to see what the next big step change will be and where it will come from.
My two predictions for game changers we might see in the next 10-20 years are the solving of fusion power or some other form of energy and the development of genetics\microbiology to a point where we can eradicate most forms of illness in the womb and even prolong life although I predict the last might have serious implications on earth's natural resources.
I always feel that DNA is proof of somethiing very, very clever out there. We, as humans have discovered its existance and we can currently theorise and tinker with it. But I feel there are some massive questions about where it has come from, and how a string of commands stored in miniature in an astonishing 4 letter format came about to create all living things on earth.
How would you empirically measure this sort of thing? It's very difficult. With hindsight it's relatively easy to see that ideas and innovations X, Y and Z combined to produce amazing products A and B but it's almost impossible to start with all the recent ideas and innovations and predict which will result in amazing products.
ewenm said:
How would you empirically measure this sort of thing? It's very difficult. With hindsight it's relatively easy to see that ideas and innovations X, Y and Z combined to produce amazing products A and B but it's almost impossible to start with all the recent ideas and innovations and predict which will result in amazing products.
Very true, I just think the 20th century has been a humdinger in terms of scientific and technological progress (probably massively helped along by two world wars). I know we are only 13 years into the 21st but it has a hell of a way to go to top the last one. I'll put my stake in the ground and say it will be looked back on in hindsight as THE century that really changed the course of humanity. Even things developed after this will probably have roots in discoveries made in the last century...unless of course scientists discover the secret of eternal youth in the next 20 years, in which case I reserve the right to take it all back
You're just unaware of the advances that occur these days. Just one of the latest examples: http://m.phys.org/news/2013-07-5d-optical-memory-g...
Eric Mc said:
How many major breakthroughs 100, 200, 300 years ago were recognised as such at the time?
Not many. Very few things did something that was so disruptive that it made people sit up and take notice. The electric telegraph was one of those. Many other technologies initially didn't seem much better than the thing they replaced - steam locomotives, for example, were barely quicker than walking pace to start with.It was only in the fullness of time that people realised what the new technologies were capable of, often using them in new ways unimaginable by the original inventor.
vladcjelli said:
I'm sitting typing this on a touch screen computer, not much bigger than a sheet of a4 paper, posting my opinion for the whole world to see within milliseconds.
Which part of massive technological advancement are you having trouble with?
Agreed but we should be on Mars by now, or flying to Australia in 2 hours, not sitting indoors tapping computers 24/7. We have stopped looking outwards and look only inwards. Do we know anything? No, we google it and copy/paste from Wiki. OK so we send the odd probe into space but it's hardly a big deal in the scheme of things.Which part of massive technological advancement are you having trouble with?
Nuclear fusion would be good - but the ecofreaks will kill it no doubt.
Edited by Simpo Two on Wednesday 10th July 22:46
Simpo Two said:
vladcjelli said:
I'm sitting typing this on a touch screen computer, not much bigger than a sheet of a4 paper, posting my opinion for the whole world to see within milliseconds.
Which part of massive technological advancement are you having trouble with?
Agreed but we should be on Mars by now, or flying to Aistralia in 2 hours, not sitting indoors tapping computers 24/7. We have stopped looking outwards and look only inwards. Do we know anything? No, we google it and copy/paste from Wiki. OK so we send the odd probe into space but it's hardly a big deal in the scheme of things.Which part of massive technological advancement are you having trouble with?
Nuclear fusion would be good - but the ecofreaks will kill it no doubt.
The Internet is the largest repository of (mostly useless) knowledge ever known to mankind, and is largely free and uncontrolled/uncensored. In terms of the technology, it's pretty incredible. In terms of the culture shift, it's been mammoth.
Everyone can know anything, anytime. Education is dead, long live the Internet!
ks about climate change.Mars is inhospitable - absolutely true.
But technically we COULD have been on Mars by now - except the momentum that was pushing manned spaceflight forward at a frenetic pace in the 60s and 70s has slowed down a lot.
All that means is that we will put people on Mars a little later than some might have predicted in (say) 1969.
Getting to Mars does not require any major scientific or technological breakthrough. We have the technology to do it now. What we don't have yet are programmes to put all the elements together to allow missions such as this to happen.
But technically we COULD have been on Mars by now - except the momentum that was pushing manned spaceflight forward at a frenetic pace in the 60s and 70s has slowed down a lot.
All that means is that we will put people on Mars a little later than some might have predicted in (say) 1969.
Getting to Mars does not require any major scientific or technological breakthrough. We have the technology to do it now. What we don't have yet are programmes to put all the elements together to allow missions such as this to happen.
Simpo Two said:
Agreed but we should be on Mars by now, or flying to Australia in 2 hours, not sitting indoors tapping computers 24/7. We have stopped looking outwards and look only inwards. Do we know anything? No, we google it and copy/paste from Wiki. OK so we send the odd probe into space but it's hardly a big deal in the scheme of things.
Nuclear fusion would be good - but the ecofreaks will kill it no doubt.
Instant communication has replaced the need to fly to Australia in 2 hours, or fly to New York by Concorde. Unless time travel was possible, there is no real reason to go to Mars, or the moon again. Sure, it's possible, but why would we need to?Nuclear fusion would be good - but the ecofreaks will kill it no doubt.
Edited by Simpo Two on Wednesday 10th July 22:46
You are right though, we have not had a major breakthrough in power sources for fast vehicles which don't involve tonnes of liquid fuel.
Small, powerful 1.21 gigawatt generators needed to power a house, personal transit flying saucer or time travel Delorean have not appeared. These would be game changers, if we could figure out how to create small scale fusion reactions then we would have unlimited power.
Gassing Station | Science! | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff