Climate Change - The Scientific Debate (Vol. II)

Climate Change - The Scientific Debate (Vol. II)

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Discussion

LongQ

13,864 posts

233 months

Thursday 14th November 2019
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Flibble said:
Oh is this the politics of climate change thread now? I thought this was for the science, not the BBC's political slant.
When one's weapon of choice is a blunderbuss the resulting shot can end up widely spread.

So far as I am aware they never had a reputation for accuracy.

Gandahar

9,600 posts

128 months

Gandahar

9,600 posts

128 months

Saturday 16th November 2019
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Some science. You can be on my patreon channel where you pay for my divorce from my wife due to spending too much time on the computer arguing about Turboboke ... lucky for him he has 18 wives in his cave...

Let's look at the antarctic

2014



Biggest increase since the odd satellite went down there in the 1960s.


Come 2015 ...one year later...



July into winter freezing took a nose dive... if you can follow the lime green thread smile

Roll onto 2016



Another unexpected drop in September which followed onto the next year.

It's a big swing and seems to be carried on into 2019



Why? An interesting conundrum.

Sadly for penguins down there it seems more than an interesting conundrum, rather sad considering

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/25/weather/penguin...

When drowning effects the life cycle of a bird that spends 3 months at -60C with an egg on its feet as "per natural" I find that rather disappointing.

frown





Gandahar

9,600 posts

128 months

Saturday 16th November 2019
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To be honest if there is climate change we need to be less species centric and work out how to solve this

https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/catastrophic-bree...

rather than a bunch of rich people having to wear welly bobs around Venice at £300 per night minimum stay,


frown

kerplunk

7,064 posts

206 months

Monday 18th November 2019
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kerplunk said:
As I commented on the politics thread, November 11th is an odd time of year to issue a model-obs 'update' - most people do them early in the year when the annual averages come out.

Looks like McKitrick has seen how the 2019 data is panning out and didn't want a graph with a narrative-spoiling uptick at the end thumbup.
Gavin Schmidt, not in any way triggered by McKitick's update, issues an up to date update



https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/11954275...

jet_noise

5,650 posts

182 months

Tuesday 19th November 2019
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But the models have been improved since then - CMIP5.



Maybe the models should be disproved.
When it becomes a hindcast again.

kerplunk

7,064 posts

206 months

Tuesday 19th November 2019
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jet_noise said:
But the models have been improved since then - CMIP5.
up to dated



jet_noise

5,650 posts

182 months

Tuesday 19th November 2019
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kerplunk said:
up to dated
Confirming that the model is running hot. The only time the mean is exceeded in the forecast region is by El Nino spikes.

kerplunk

7,064 posts

206 months

Tuesday 19th November 2019
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jet_noise said:
kerplunk said:
up to dated
Confirming that the model is running hot.
The model mean is running a bit warm (so far) but it's within the spread of model outputs.

jet_noise said:
The only time the mean is exceeded in the forecast region is by El Nino spikes.
Which is what you'd expect.

The more interesting question is whether it's safe to conclude anything about climate sensitivity from the obs so far.

What would the sceptical response be if the obs were running a bit warmer than the model mean?

You might say something like:

It's premature to conclude sensitivity is on the high side.
Decadal variability could be speeding things up temporarily.
It's unrealistic to think it will track straight down the model mean.
It's not safe to extrapolate from the obs to date.
More data required.

And you'd be right.



JustALooseScrew

1,154 posts

67 months

Tuesday 19th November 2019
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This popped up on my youtube today.

Professor Ian Plimer -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqRkM5S6MiM

Worth a listen if you can spare the full hour, but certainly from 40 minutes in shouldn't be too difficult.

Don't know if it has been posted before here but from Jan 2018.

He seems to be asking the right questions. (I think).


kerplunk

7,064 posts

206 months

Tuesday 19th November 2019
quotequote all
JustALooseScrew said:
This popped up on my youtube today.

Professor Ian Plimer -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqRkM5S6MiM

Worth a listen if you can spare the full hour, but certainly from 40 minutes in shouldn't be too difficult.

Don't know if it has been posted before here but from Jan 2018.

He seems to be asking the right questions. (I think).
Why don't you summarize what are 'the right questions' in your opinion.

I just had a quick flick click through and heard some right old gash but maybe I've missed the good bits.

btw in the first 40 mins or so where he appears to be discussing historical climate variation since the year dot does he ever mention greenhouse gas variation as one of the causes? Just curious, but not enough to sit through 40 mins to find out smile



kerplunk

7,064 posts

206 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
quotequote all
kerplunk said:
JustALooseScrew said:
This popped up on my youtube today.

Professor Ian Plimer -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqRkM5S6MiM

Worth a listen if you can spare the full hour, but certainly from 40 minutes in shouldn't be too difficult.

Don't know if it has been posted before here but from Jan 2018.

He seems to be asking the right questions. (I think).
Why don't you summarize what are 'the right questions' in your opinion.

I just had a quick flick click through and heard some right old gash but maybe I've missed the good bits.

btw in the first 40 mins or so where he appears to be discussing historical climate variation since the year dot does he ever mention greenhouse gas variation as one of the causes? Just curious, but not enough to sit through 40 mins to find out smile
Curiosity got the better of me and I listened to it all. As I guessed would be the case, Plimer's tour through earth's historical climate variation since the year dot never once mentions greenhouse gas variation as a factor. All the other standard explanations get a mention - solar variation, volcanic eruptions, orbital variation, albedo, asteroids, the breaking apart of the continents etc, but variation in the greenhouse effect - nada biggrin




mybrainhurts

90,809 posts

255 months

Friday 22nd November 2019
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Been away for a while.

Has anybody mentioned Donnelly and Donnelly?

If not, what do the zealots think?

Thorodin

2,459 posts

133 months

Sunday 24th November 2019
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Watching Country File today on the BBC when an ever-so earnest braggadocio vegan climate change activist said something I couldn’t understand. Not unusual, they frequently induce laughter rather than confusion from me.

However, he said deforestation to increase available land for agriculture, together with methane from cow and sheep defecation, releases into the atmosphere the carbon that has been stored in trees for millennia.

Are there any chemists or scientists out there who can explain in layman’s terms just how felling trees releases carbon? Oh, and how those singular atoms of carbon find two atoms each of oxygen with which to cling and combine? I think we should be told. Of course reduction in foliage has an effect in the atmosphere but release caused by felling?

dickymint

24,339 posts

258 months

Sunday 24th November 2019
quotequote all
Thorodin said:
Watching Country File today on the BBC when an ever-so earnest braggadocio vegan climate change activist said something I couldn’t understand. Not unusual, they frequently induce laughter rather than confusion from me.

However, he said deforestation to increase available land for agriculture, together with methane from cow and sheep defecation, releases into the atmosphere the carbon that has been stored in trees for millennia.

Are there any chemists or scientists out there who can explain in layman’s terms just how felling trees releases carbon? Oh, and how those singular atoms of carbon find two atoms each of oxygen with which to cling and combine? I think we should be told. Of course reduction in foliage has an effect in the atmosphere but release caused by felling?
It's the chainsaws innit hippy

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

108 months

Sunday 24th November 2019
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Thorodin said:
Are there any chemists or scientists out there who can explain in layman’s terms just how felling trees releases carbon? Oh, and how those singular atoms of carbon find two atoms each of oxygen with which to cling and combine? I think we should be told. Of course reduction in foliage has an effect in the atmosphere but release caused by felling?
Well a quick google reveals:

The trees and plants of the Amazon Basin absorb carbon dioxide during the process of photosynthesis . If there are fewer trees and plants, due to deforestation, then less carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere. In this way deforestation contributes to global warming and therefore climate change.

Evanivitch

20,077 posts

122 months

Sunday 24th November 2019
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Thorodin said:
Watching Country File today on the BBC when an ever-so earnest braggadocio vegan climate change activist said something I couldn’t understand. Not unusual, they frequently induce laughter rather than confusion from me.

However, he said deforestation to increase available land for agriculture, together with methane from cow and sheep defecation, releases into the atmosphere the carbon that has been stored in trees for millennia.

Are there any chemists or scientists out there who can explain in layman’s terms just how felling trees releases carbon? Oh, and how those singular atoms of carbon find two atoms each of oxygen with which to cling and combine? I think we should be told. Of course reduction in foliage has an effect in the atmosphere but release caused by felling?
What do you think happens to trees when they are felled?

If you're clearing for farming, you burn it (CO2, bad). If you're lazy, you leave it rot (methane, worse). At best, you put it to good use, bit unless preserved and sheltered it will still like end up rotting or burned.

The best case if you turn it to charcoal and bury it.

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

108 months

Sunday 24th November 2019
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I didn’t want to post that as it just seemed like too obvious an answer.

LongQ

13,864 posts

233 months

Sunday 24th November 2019
quotequote all
Thorodin said:
Watching Country File today on the BBC when an ever-so earnest braggadocio vegan climate change activist said something I couldn’t understand. Not unusual, they frequently induce laughter rather than confusion from me.

However, he said deforestation to increase available land for agriculture, together with methane from cow and sheep defecation, releases into the atmosphere the carbon that has been stored in trees for millennia.

Are there any chemists or scientists out there who can explain in layman’s terms just how felling trees releases carbon? Oh, and how those singular atoms of carbon find two atoms each of oxygen with which to cling and combine? I think we should be told. Of course reduction in foliage has an effect in the atmosphere but release caused by felling?
Few, if any, trees have been around for millennia.

Optimum arboreal carbon sequestration is most likely in most species to be during mid life growth although things get quite tricky to assess since root systems are a significant influence. All other parts of the tree being potential carbon dumps, by one means or another, once into midlife maturity.

Now grass and the like, as eaten by grazing animals, offers some perpetual options for rapid carbon 'fixing'.

Needs a lot of land though.

Flibble

6,475 posts

181 months

Sunday 24th November 2019
quotequote all
Gadgetmac said:
I didn’t want to post that as it just seemed like too obvious an answer.
It seems obvious because it is obvious. Unless the question poster just thought that felled trees would be neatly stacked and stored to make sure they didn't come to any harm...