Climate Change - The Scientific Debate (Vol. II)

Climate Change - The Scientific Debate (Vol. II)

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Discussion

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

109 months

Thursday 12th November 2020
quotequote all
PRTVR said:
There is no crossover, it is pure Politics, Biden and Trump should have given it away,
"copy and paste" is because you used somebody's words and passed them off as your own, with no link.
Eh? Where did I do that? I would never consciously do it usually going to length to give links to articles and using the word ’extract’ to denote that what follows is from the link and not me.

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

109 months

Thursday 12th November 2020
quotequote all
More research in the field..

Late-season Arctic research cruise reveals warm ocean temperatures, active ecosystem

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/11/2011...

Extracts:

Arctic researchers have been visiting the Bering and Chukchi seas off Alaska for nearly 30 years, collecting information about the biological diversity of the watery world under the sea ice. This year, a late-season research cruise revealed a surprise. At a time of year when an ice-breaking ship is usually required to get to some of the data-gathering outposts, scientists found nothing but open water and an unusually active ecosystem.

"The water and air temperatures were warmer, and we had ecosystem activity that normally doesn't occur late in the season," said University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science Research Professor Jacqueline Grebmeier, chief scientist on the research cruise and a national and international leader in Arctic research.

Grebmeier and Cooper were part of a small team of researchers from the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, the University of Alaska Fairbanks, and Clark University that completed an unusual late-season Arctic research cruise due travel challenges presented by COVID-19 pandemic. They found an ecosystem -- expected to be powering down to low-level winter activity with sea ice forming -- to be still active, likely due to unseasonably warm ocean temperatures. Sea ice formation was still a number of weeks away.

"2020 turned out to be the second lowest minimum sea ice extent, meaning that sea ice retreated back closer to the North Pole," Grebmeier said. "We had warming water up to 3 degrees Celsius higher than typical all the way through water column. That means you can't cool it down that quickly to build ice."


Kawasicki

13,099 posts

236 months

Thursday 12th November 2020
quotequote all
Gadgetmac said:
Climate change causes landfalling hurricanes to stay stronger for longer

https://phys.org/news/2020-11-climate-landfalling-...

“Climate change is causing hurricanes that make landfall to take more time to weaken, reports a study published 11th November 2020 in the journal Nature. The researchers showed that hurricanes that develop over warmer oceans carry more moisture and therefore stay stronger for longer after hitting land. This means that in the future, as the world continues to warm, hurricanes are more likely to reach communities farther inland and be more destructive.”

"The implications are very important, especially when considering policies that are put in place to cope with global warming," said Professor Pinaki Chakraborty, senior author of the study and head of the Fluid Mechanics Unit at the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University (OIST).
Ryan Maue looked at the paper and spotted that they forgot to remove the hurricanes that head back out to sea after making landfall. When the methodology is corrected there is no trend.



Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

109 months

Thursday 12th November 2020
quotequote all
Kawasicki said:
Gadgetmac said:
Climate change causes landfalling hurricanes to stay stronger for longer

https://phys.org/news/2020-11-climate-landfalling-...

“Climate change is causing hurricanes that make landfall to take more time to weaken, reports a study published 11th November 2020 in the journal Nature. The researchers showed that hurricanes that develop over warmer oceans carry more moisture and therefore stay stronger for longer after hitting land. This means that in the future, as the world continues to warm, hurricanes are more likely to reach communities farther inland and be more destructive.”

"The implications are very important, especially when considering policies that are put in place to cope with global warming," said Professor Pinaki Chakraborty, senior author of the study and head of the Fluid Mechanics Unit at the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University (OIST).
Ryan Maue looked at the paper and spotted that they forgot to remove the hurricanes that head back out to sea after making landfall. When the methodology is corrected there is no trend.
This Ryan Maue...

"Trump administration eyes scientist who downplays climate change for top NOAA job"

He's also a member of the Cato Institute isn't he?

Anyway, that must have been pretty quick work as the paper was only published yesterday.

Got a Linky?

Kawasicki

13,099 posts

236 months

Thursday 12th November 2020
quotequote all
Have a look on Twitter

HarryW

15,157 posts

270 months

Thursday 12th November 2020
quotequote all
Gadgetmac said:
Kawasicki said:
Gadgetmac said:
Climate change causes landfalling hurricanes to stay stronger for longer

https://phys.org/news/2020-11-climate-landfalling-...

“Climate change is causing hurricanes that make landfall to take more time to weaken, reports a study published 11th November 2020 in the journal Nature. The researchers showed that hurricanes that develop over warmer oceans carry more moisture and therefore stay stronger for longer after hitting land. This means that in the future, as the world continues to warm, hurricanes are more likely to reach communities farther inland and be more destructive.”

"The implications are very important, especially when considering policies that are put in place to cope with global warming," said Professor Pinaki Chakraborty, senior author of the study and head of the Fluid Mechanics Unit at the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University (OIST).
Ryan Maue looked at the paper and spotted that they forgot to remove the hurricanes that head back out to sea after making landfall. When the methodology is corrected there is no trend.
This Ryan Maue...

"Trump administration eyes scientist who downplays climate change for top NOAA job"

He's also a member of the Cato Institute isn't he?

Anyway, that must have been pretty quick work as the paper was only published yesterday.

Got a Linky?
Taking the personal slight out, Ad Hominem if you will, a challenge is a challenge; should we not be looking at what’s been flagged.
You’d think a robust peer review process would weed out such a fundamental flaw in the methodology though. Otherwise peer reviews that don’t challenge become nothing more than groupthink. Science should be above that.

Edited by HarryW on Thursday 12th November 23:26

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

109 months

Friday 13th November 2020
quotequote all
HarryW said:
Gadgetmac said:
Kawasicki said:
Gadgetmac said:
Climate change causes landfalling hurricanes to stay stronger for longer

https://phys.org/news/2020-11-climate-landfalling-...

“Climate change is causing hurricanes that make landfall to take more time to weaken, reports a study published 11th November 2020 in the journal Nature. The researchers showed that hurricanes that develop over warmer oceans carry more moisture and therefore stay stronger for longer after hitting land. This means that in the future, as the world continues to warm, hurricanes are more likely to reach communities farther inland and be more destructive.”

"The implications are very important, especially when considering policies that are put in place to cope with global warming," said Professor Pinaki Chakraborty, senior author of the study and head of the Fluid Mechanics Unit at the Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University (OIST).
Ryan Maue looked at the paper and spotted that they forgot to remove the hurricanes that head back out to sea after making landfall. When the methodology is corrected there is no trend.
This Ryan Maue...

"Trump administration eyes scientist who downplays climate change for top NOAA job"

He's also a member of the Cato Institute isn't he?

Anyway, that must have been pretty quick work as the paper was only published yesterday.

Got a Linky?
You’d think a robust peer review process would weed out such a fundamental flaw in the methodology though. Otherwise peer reviews that don’t challenge become nothing more than groupthink. Science should be above that.
Indeed. Peer review is, as I understand it, the gateway to publication in journals such as Nature. I'd be more than a little surprised if it failed so spectacularly over something so seemingly obvious.

Of course the other side of this coin for me is that Ryan Maue (a noted AGW denier) and abuser of Twitter for his own ends (see his history of deleting tweets) is simply wrong. It's odd that he, and he alone so far, has come up with this but then again he may be right. It's such a new publication that we'll have to wait to see how it pans out. If other more 'neutral' climatologists agree then clearly the paper will need revisiting but until I see that I personally will reserve judgement.

However, give Kawasicki his due, he found a dissenting voice. I just wish his source had been more untarnished.

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

109 months

Friday 13th November 2020
quotequote all
He's an interesting character is Ryan. One minute he's an arch denier of CC on Twitter and the next he's making weird tweets that upset his co-conspirators (WUWT, Tony Heller etc)...

https://realclimatescience.com/2019/10/ryan-maue-g...







Apparently Anthony Watts (WUWT) asked him to remove these tweets (itself rum) but Ryan didn't at the time...I don't know if he has yet.

I assume anyone using Ryan Maue as their go-to guy would also agree with those tweets? biggrin

Kawasicki

13,099 posts

236 months

Friday 13th November 2020
quotequote all
Gadgetmac said:
He's an interesting character is Ryan. One minute he's an arch denier of CC on Twitter and the next he's making weird tweets that upset his co-conspirators (WUWT, Tony Heller etc)...


I assume anyone using Ryan Maue as their go-to guy would also agree with those tweets? biggrin
Maybe he makes his mind up based on the data he trusts.

Or...

Maybe he makes his mind up based on who pays him.

In either case, it's better to look at the data, and not focus much on the person.

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

109 months

Friday 13th November 2020
quotequote all
Another day - another bunch of scientists...

Climate change worsening Australia's extreme weather: scientists

https://phys.org/news/2020-11-climate-worsening-au...

Extract:

Climate change is already buffeting Australia with extreme bushfires, droughts and cyclones, and the fossil-fuel reliant country should brace for worse to come, according to the country's top science and weather agencies.

The government's top science body, CSIRO, and its Bureau of Meteorology released a report Friday outlining a sobering future for the vast continent nation that was devastated by bushfires in 2019-2020 after its hottest and driest year on record.

The blazes burned an area roughly the size of the United Kingdom, leaving 33 people dead, killing or displacing nearly three billion animals and costing the economy an estimated US$7 billion.

"Ten or 20 years from now, we won't be saying 2019 was really hot—2019 will just be usual. There will be nothing exceptional about 2019," CSIRO Climate Science Centre director Jaci Brown told public broadcaster ABC.

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

109 months

Friday 13th November 2020
quotequote all
Kawasicki said:
In either case, it's better to look at the data
Agreed...as I’m showing on a daily basis with links to scientific research from scientists and scientific institutions from around the globe. The absolute avalanche of which is sadly still unlikely to sway the conspiraloons.

Long live the science.

Kawasicki

13,099 posts

236 months

Friday 13th November 2020
quotequote all
Gadgetmac said:
Kawasicki said:
In either case, it's better to look at the data
Agreed...as I’m showing on a daily basis with links to scientific research from scientists and scientific institutions from around the globe. The absolute avalanche of which is sadly still unlikely to sway the conspiraloons.

Long live the science.
You don't show data. You uncritically regurgitate articles with attention grabbing (and often inaccurate) headlines. Your behaviour is the opposite of scientific. Furthermore, what is it with the focus on the man, see the adhom attacks above... it seems like you can't stop yourself.

The absolute avalanche of alarmist climate science due to an absolute avalanche of funding for it, coupled with uncritical peer reviews. What output do you think will come from a research department founded specifically to research dangerous climate change?

Money makes the world go around... it's a crazy conspiracy!

Kawasicki

13,099 posts

236 months

Friday 13th November 2020
quotequote all
Gadgetmac said:
Another day - another bunch of scientists...

Climate change worsening Australia's extreme weather: scientists

https://phys.org/news/2020-11-climate-worsening-au...

Extract:

Climate change is already buffeting Australia with extreme bushfires, droughts and cyclones, and the fossil-fuel reliant country should brace for worse to come, according to the country's top science and weather agencies.

The government's top science body, CSIRO, and its Bureau of Meteorology released a report Friday outlining a sobering future for the vast continent nation that was devastated by bushfires in 2019-2020 after its hottest and driest year on record.

The blazes burned an area roughly the size of the United Kingdom, leaving 33 people dead, killing or displacing nearly three billion animals and costing the economy an estimated US$7 billion.

"Ten or 20 years from now, we won't be saying 2019 was really hot—2019 will just be usual. There will be nothing exceptional about 2019," CSIRO Climate Science Centre director Jaci Brown told public broadcaster ABC.
And a dissenting scientific voice

https://www.drroyspencer.com/2020/01/are-australia...

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

109 months

Friday 13th November 2020
quotequote all
Kawasicki said:
Gadgetmac said:
Kawasicki said:
In either case, it's better to look at the data
Agreed...as I’m showing on a daily basis with links to scientific research from scientists and scientific institutions from around the globe. The absolute avalanche of which is sadly still unlikely to sway the conspiraloons.

Long live the science.
You don't show data. You uncritically regurgitate articles with attention grabbing (and often inaccurate) headlines. Your behaviour is the opposite of scientific. Furthermore, what is it with the focus on the man, see the adhom attacks above... it seems like you can't stop yourself.

The absolute avalanche of alarmist climate science due to an absolute avalanche of funding for it, coupled with uncritical peer reviews. What output do you think will come from a research department founded specifically to research dangerous climate change?

Money makes the world go around... it's a crazy conspiracy!
I show/give links to climate research papers from respected scientific journals and or other sources. You on the other hand do not, you give links to conspiracy theorists on twitter and blogs and think thats a bona-fide response. It’s no wonder you lost the argument many moons ago.

Yes, they’ve all sold thier soul to the devil. Having left further education they’ve all decided to trade their credibility and passion for the truth for the next 50 years in return for earning less than they could have got in other fields.

“Professors at public universities who teach earth sciences and environmental studies generally earn more than their peers in humanities and social sciences, but less than faculty in the economics, business and law departments, according to data from the Association of American Universities.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/27/us/politics/cli...

You pretend to be a believer in AGW but in reality you’re simply another conspiracy addict.

Kawasicki

13,099 posts

236 months

Friday 13th November 2020
quotequote all
Another day - another bunch of scientists...

Climate change? Not much in 50 years of global landfalls of hurricane strength tropical cyclones: scientists

https://www.forbes.com/sites/rogerpielke/2020/01/0...



robinessex

11,077 posts

182 months

Friday 13th November 2020
quotequote all
Gadgetmac said:
Well it’s not really a bunch is it? It’s Maue again and Pielke Jr who last time I looked had no science qualifications. I think they are part of the 3%.

And it’s not a published, peer reviewed paper is it, it’s a column in Forbes.

You seem to like quoting him so remind me, do you agree with Maue’s tweets that I posted? A simple Yes or No will suffice.

AGW believer....righto hehe
You failed to offer any comment re the graph. Have another try.

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

109 months

Friday 13th November 2020
quotequote all
I’m not sure anyone has said the frequency of Hurricanes would increase. The strength/intensity of the hurricanes appears to be currently being discussed though.

Anyway, it’s not really a bunch is it? It’s Maue again and Pielke Jr who last time I looked had no climate science qualifications. And it’s not “another day” is it, it was back in January. smile

Neither is it a published, peer reviewed paper is it, it’s a column in Forbes.

You seem to like quoting him so remind me, do you agree with Maue’s tweets that I posted above? A simple Yes or No will suffice.

AGW believer....righto hehe

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

109 months

Friday 13th November 2020
quotequote all
robinessex said:
You failed to offer any comment re the graph. Have another try.
I did, it’s above.

And now answer my question.

Kawasicki

13,099 posts

236 months

Friday 13th November 2020
quotequote all
Gadgetmac said:
Well it’s not really a bunch is it? It’s Maue again and Pielke Jr who last time I looked had no science qualifications. I think they are part of the 3%.

And it’s not a published, peer reviewed paper is it, it’s a column in Forbes.

You seem to like quoting him so remind me, do you agree with Maue’s tweets that I posted? A simple Yes or No will suffice.

AGW believer....righto hehe
Jessica Weinkle also assisted. She has published papers on extreme weather events.

Anyway... you seem to only be interested in the people involved, not the actual data. Most predictable.

I do not agree with Maue‘s tweets. That’s a NO.

Gadgetmac

14,984 posts

109 months

Friday 13th November 2020
quotequote all
Kawasicki said:
Jessica Weinkle also assisted. She has published papers on extreme weather events.

Anyway... you seem to only be interested in the people involved, not the actual data. Most predictable.

I do not agree with Maue‘s tweets. That’s a NO.
So he’s right and an expert when it suits and not right when it doesn’t. “Most predictable”.

The people involved are important or would you have me accept Donald Trumps ascertion that Climate Change is all a Chinese hoax?