Climate Change - The Scientific Debate (Vol. II)
Discussion
Toltec said:
Gandahar said:
The abuse and misuse of a none scientific post in this forum makes me despair also.
Why don't you go and post on the "get it off my chest forum" ? as you failed miserably to mention any science at all and simply did a letter to the BBC complaining about something. Dear Points of view ....
Meanwhile. some science
https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/climate-change-ma...
What always worries me with articles like that is the implicit message that the climate should be static and nothing should ever change. Why don't you go and post on the "get it off my chest forum" ? as you failed miserably to mention any science at all and simply did a letter to the BBC complaining about something. Dear Points of view ....
Meanwhile. some science
https://www.bas.ac.uk/media-post/climate-change-ma...
Edited by Gandahar on Thursday 29th June 20:07
The third word in the title, as presented on the site, is "may".
The projected time scale, as ever, is the start of the next century. Place your wagers now and appoint an as yet un-conceived descendant to collect your winnings.
Not a bad theory to consider and discuss of course. And one assumes that they may be able to come up with some experiments that would help them better predict a long term outcome over the next decade or so as the changes they expect to see are either observed or not observed.
Or maybe the full paper has a proposal about how to flick a switch and be certain that the changes will stop - or perhaps be reversed?
Maybe it also included a target or targets for the various values at which humanity shout attempt to stabilise the entire Antarctic climate?
Maybe one of the "Solar Shield" concepts that have been around for a while?
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11993-solar...
Interestingly that news piece from 10 years ago also mentions that James Hansen was telling people that the "tipping point" had been reached - in which case it's already too late to take action one assumes.
I'm not sure whether this paper, once fully read, will introduce some impressive insights, merely state the obvious or miss the point entirely.
But here goes.
"The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions."
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-932...
If you are a meat eating Petrol Head who has or would like a large number of offspring and enjoys travelling the world I suspect you are not going to like this much.
But here goes.
"The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions."
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-932...
If you are a meat eating Petrol Head who has or would like a large number of offspring and enjoys travelling the world I suspect you are not going to like this much.
LongQ said:
I'm not sure whether this paper, once fully read, will introduce some impressive insights, merely state the obvious or miss the point entirely.
But here goes.
"The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions."
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-932...
If you are a meat eating Petrol Head who has or would like a large number of offspring and enjoys travelling the world I suspect you are not going to like this much.
Interesting.But here goes.
"The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions."
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-932...
If you are a meat eating Petrol Head who has or would like a large number of offspring and enjoys travelling the world I suspect you are not going to like this much.
In the abstract it does look like everything pales in comparison to the birthrate number. Although you'd hope that the trend of greater education = lower birthrate continues (along with investment in education!)
Will read the rest at leisure.
LongQ said:
I'm not sure whether this paper, once fully read, will introduce some impressive insights, merely state the obvious or miss the point entirely.
But here goes.
"The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions."
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-932...
If you are a meat eating Petrol Head who has or would like a large number of offspring and enjoys travelling the world I suspect you are not going to like this much.
As a meat eating petrolhead* who has no children and is never going to the government should be cutting me some slack and ideally giving me carbon tax rebates.But here goes.
"The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions."
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-932...
If you are a meat eating Petrol Head who has or would like a large number of offspring and enjoys travelling the world I suspect you are not going to like this much.
* I enjoy driving cars, however I walk to work so my annual mileage is also well below average.
Wayoftheflower said:
LongQ said:
I'm not sure whether this paper, once fully read, will introduce some impressive insights, merely state the obvious or miss the point entirely.
But here goes.
"The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions."
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-932...
If you are a meat eating Petrol Head who has or would like a large number of offspring and enjoys travelling the world I suspect you are not going to like this much.
Interesting.But here goes.
"The climate mitigation gap: education and government recommendations miss the most effective individual actions."
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-932...
If you are a meat eating Petrol Head who has or would like a large number of offspring and enjoys travelling the world I suspect you are not going to like this much.
In the abstract it does look like everything pales in comparison to the birthrate number. Although you'd hope that the trend of greater education = lower birthrate continues (along with investment in education!)
Will read the rest at leisure.
It makes one wonder whether some of the other societal changes we seem to be adopting are also being accepted mainly on the basis of the potential for reducing birth rates.
The word "retirement" with its current connection to discontinuing working will be, er, retired from the English language at some point in this century. IMO.
Oh well, I suppose it was a nice concept for the short time it lasted.
Wayoftheflower said:
s2art said he'd post some data here about adjusted rate of change temperature data from the 1920s 30s. Anyone else got a link to something like that?
High probability it was US data which requires large adjustments due to known biases in the raw data - no warmer now than the 20s/30s turns into a warmer present, so naturally it comes up alot as a conspiracy talking point.https://judithcurry.com/2014/07/07/understanding-a...
I'm not sure whether this is Science or the Met Office putting out a press release to help justify their spending on yet another "super computer".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-4068...
Matt McGrath seems to cover all bases including politics.
"The estimate reflects natural variability plus changes in the UK climate as a result of global warming.
But a supercomputer was needed to understand the scale of increased risk.
Across the winter of 2013-14, a series of storms hit the UK leading to extensive flooding in many parts. The amount of rain that fell in much of southern England and the Midlands was the heaviest in 100 years. Cleaning up from the resulting floods took time and money - the bill for the Thames valley alone was over £1bn.
Met Office researchers say that there was nothing in the observational record to indicate that such an unprecedented amount of rainfall was possible".
"However, by using a climate model that takes the current climate period from 1981-2015 as its base, and running it hundreds of times on the Met Office supercomputer, researchers were able to find many modelled months with similar or greater rainfall to January 2014."
"We found many unprecedented events in the model data and this comes out as a 7% risk of a monthly record extreme in a given winter in the next few years, that's just over Southeast England," Dr Vikki Thompson, the study's lead author told BBC News."
"We are not attributing this directly to climate change, what we are saying is that if you take in everything that's in the climate system today then that is the risk. Climate change is already happening and we've already got some and that is folded in here."
"Key to developing this new understanding of the risk of record rainfall has been adding the power of a supercomputer to create hundreds of realistic UK winter scenarios in addition to the observational record. Other experts believe that the new work will be very important to policy makers."
And McGrath ends with a quote from Bob Ward.
So perhaps it should really be in the Politics thread but I'll put it here for now.
One to reconnect with in 10 years time to see if the Supercomputer money was a worthwhile investment.
I would guess that there is an up to 30% chance that it was.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-4068...
Matt McGrath seems to cover all bases including politics.
"The estimate reflects natural variability plus changes in the UK climate as a result of global warming.
But a supercomputer was needed to understand the scale of increased risk.
Across the winter of 2013-14, a series of storms hit the UK leading to extensive flooding in many parts. The amount of rain that fell in much of southern England and the Midlands was the heaviest in 100 years. Cleaning up from the resulting floods took time and money - the bill for the Thames valley alone was over £1bn.
Met Office researchers say that there was nothing in the observational record to indicate that such an unprecedented amount of rainfall was possible".
"However, by using a climate model that takes the current climate period from 1981-2015 as its base, and running it hundreds of times on the Met Office supercomputer, researchers were able to find many modelled months with similar or greater rainfall to January 2014."
"We found many unprecedented events in the model data and this comes out as a 7% risk of a monthly record extreme in a given winter in the next few years, that's just over Southeast England," Dr Vikki Thompson, the study's lead author told BBC News."
"We are not attributing this directly to climate change, what we are saying is that if you take in everything that's in the climate system today then that is the risk. Climate change is already happening and we've already got some and that is folded in here."
"Key to developing this new understanding of the risk of record rainfall has been adding the power of a supercomputer to create hundreds of realistic UK winter scenarios in addition to the observational record. Other experts believe that the new work will be very important to policy makers."
And McGrath ends with a quote from Bob Ward.
So perhaps it should really be in the Politics thread but I'll put it here for now.
One to reconnect with in 10 years time to see if the Supercomputer money was a worthwhile investment.
I would guess that there is an up to 30% chance that it was.
LongQ said:
One to reconnect with in 10 years time to see if the Supercomputer money was a worthwhile investment.
I would guess that there is an up to 30% chance that it was.
You don't understand how the Met Office works.I would guess that there is an up to 30% chance that it was.
They spend £20 to £30 million every few years in order to continue getting the wrong results, only faster.
LongQ said:
The amount of rain that fell in much of southern England and the Midlands was the heaviest in 100 years.
Met Office researchers say that there was nothing in the observational record to indicate that such an unprecedented amount of rainfall was possible".
The observational record has data back to the 17th Century. The rainfall was similar to 100 years ago and yet "there was nothing in the observational record" Met Office researchers say that there was nothing in the observational record to indicate that such an unprecedented amount of rainfall was possible".
That right there is why they shouldn't get a single penny for a new computer. They don't even understand the data they have.
Jinx said:
The observational record has data back to the 17th Century. The rainfall was similar to 100 years ago and yet "there was nothing in the observational record"
That right there is why they shouldn't get a single penny for a new computer. They don't even understand the data they have.
But a new computer will allow them to fail to understand it even faster.That right there is why they shouldn't get a single penny for a new computer. They don't even understand the data they have.
Jinx said:
LongQ said:
The amount of rain that fell in much of southern England and the Midlands was the heaviest in 100 years.
Met Office researchers say that there was nothing in the observational record to indicate that such an unprecedented amount of rainfall was possible".
The observational record has data back to the 17th Century. The rainfall was similar to 100 years ago and yet "there was nothing in the observational record" Met Office researchers say that there was nothing in the observational record to indicate that such an unprecedented amount of rainfall was possible".
That right there is why they shouldn't get a single penny for a new computer. They don't even understand the data they have.
hairykrishna said:
Jinx said:
LongQ said:
The amount of rain that fell in much of southern England and the Midlands was the heaviest in 100 years.
Met Office researchers say that there was nothing in the observational record to indicate that such an unprecedented amount of rainfall was possible".
The observational record has data back to the 17th Century. The rainfall was similar to 100 years ago and yet "there was nothing in the observational record" Met Office researchers say that there was nothing in the observational record to indicate that such an unprecedented amount of rainfall was possible".
That right there is why they shouldn't get a single penny for a new computer. They don't even understand the data they have.
That is not to say that I disagree with the sentiment.
The interesting thing about scientific assumptions still being used from the 19th century is that its sometimes wrong.
https://www.space.com/37611-solar-eclipse-2017-sun...
It would seem that we don't have an absolute figure on the size of the sun. I wonder if it actually varies?
https://www.space.com/37611-solar-eclipse-2017-sun...
It would seem that we don't have an absolute figure on the size of the sun. I wonder if it actually varies?
Here is an interesting piece about Sea Surface Temperatures and the apparent need for adjustment (or not) and the challenges present when deciding how to go about it.
http://euanmearns.com/making-the-measurements-matc...
Highly recommended.
http://euanmearns.com/making-the-measurements-matc...
Highly recommended.
XM5ER said:
The interesting thing about scientific assumptions still being used from the 19th century is that its sometimes wrong.
https://www.space.com/37611-solar-eclipse-2017-sun...
It would seem that we don't have an absolute figure on the size of the sun. I wonder if it actually varies?
I imagine it is something like trying to measure the height of the surface of a boiling pot of water.https://www.space.com/37611-solar-eclipse-2017-sun...
It would seem that we don't have an absolute figure on the size of the sun. I wonder if it actually varies?
It seems that the hopes that Science could provide a rapid advance for the use of bio-fuels based on algae might have been a little optimistic.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/algal-biofuel-production...
Oh well.
Presumably that's partly why Branson sold his airline?
http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/tag/branson/
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/algal-biofuel-production...
Oh well.
Presumably that's partly why Branson sold his airline?
http://www.biofuelsdigest.com/bdigest/tag/branson/
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