Monty hall problem = Deal or no deal?

Monty hall problem = Deal or no deal?

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Discussion

crofty1984

Original Poster:

15,859 posts

204 months

Thursday 11th June 2020
quotequote all
OK, lighting the blue touchpaper.
I understand the monty hall problem.
Does deal or no deal work the same way? If you keep your box you've got 1/30 chance but if you swap at the end you've got a 29/30 chance, assuming the top prize hasn't already gone?

Kent Border Kenny

2,219 posts

60 months

Thursday 11th June 2020
quotequote all
No, not the same.

The host in the Monty Hall problem knows where the prize is, so is adding information to the system when they open a door.

This part is absolutely critical to how the original problem works.

Troubleatmill

10,210 posts

159 months

Sunday 21st June 2020
quotequote all
Kent Border Kenny said:
No, not the same.

The host in the Monty Hall problem knows where the prize is, so is adding information to the system when they open a door.

This part is absolutely critical to how the original problem works.
This.


I didn't believe it at first.

But it works.

TwigtheWonderkid

43,368 posts

150 months

Monday 22nd June 2020
quotequote all
Kent Border Kenny said:
No, not the same.

The host in the Monty Hall problem knows where the prize is, so is adding information to the system when they open a door.

This part is absolutely critical to how the original problem works.
Indeed, Deal or No Deal is a completely different concept. True, there's only a 1/30 chance you have the top prize, and there's a 29/30 chance it's elsewhere, but you don't know where, and ultimately, you've got to pick a box at random. You might as well stick with your original. The concept is also different as every box has a value so high, some low. In the Monty Hall problem, only 1 box has a value.

Einion Yrth

19,575 posts

244 months

Monday 22nd June 2020
quotequote all
TwigtheWonderkid said:
In the Monty Hall problem, only 1 box has a value.
Goats aren't entirely without value, a quick google suggests around the hundred and fifty nicker mark.

RizzoTheRat

25,165 posts

192 months

Monday 22nd June 2020
quotequote all
Einion Yrth said:
Goats aren't entirely without value, a quick google suggests around the hundred and fifty nicker mark.
But how many people have the facilities to keep or even transport it? It's a bit like someone from an inner city sink estate who doesn't own a car wining Bully's Star Prize...a frigging speedboat!

TwigtheWonderkid

43,368 posts

150 months

Tuesday 23rd June 2020
quotequote all
Einion Yrth said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
In the Monty Hall problem, only 1 box has a value.
Goats aren't entirely without value, a quick google suggests around the hundred and fifty nicker mark.
I don't think they ever actually got to keep the goat, it was a metaphor for a worthless prize.

Einion Yrth

19,575 posts

244 months

Tuesday 23rd June 2020
quotequote all
TwigtheWonderkid said:
Einion Yrth said:
TwigtheWonderkid said:
In the Monty Hall problem, only 1 box has a value.
Goats aren't entirely without value, a quick google suggests around the hundred and fifty nicker mark.
I don't think they ever actually got to keep the goat, it was a metaphor for a worthless prize.
I'm really not sure I was being entirely serious. wink