Where next in the solar system?
Discussion
I would get behind Musk’s starship approach. Big, reusable, refuellable space craft. Get a load of them up there and don’t bring them down again. Space will become viable and cheap when we don’t need to haul everything from earth - you just send people up, maybe 1000 at a time crammed into a starship “bus” that gets to orbit and lets people board existing craft. If Musk can get his launch costs down to $2m, then a ticket to earth orbit would be $2000 - that’s mass transit money,
Ultimately you need to be able to make “‘stuff” from materials you’ve found outside a gravity well. In that respect, Mars is hard - you’ve got to launch the damn stuff again. The goal has to be asteroids, which are a long way out, but as soon as you can build arbitrary stuff in zero-g, space will explode with life.
Ultimately you need to be able to make “‘stuff” from materials you’ve found outside a gravity well. In that respect, Mars is hard - you’ve got to launch the damn stuff again. The goal has to be asteroids, which are a long way out, but as soon as you can build arbitrary stuff in zero-g, space will explode with life.
ash73 said:
What would they all do when they're up there?
I’d guess some will be tourists. If the intention is to get to a point where we make raw materials off earth, you’re going to need a lot,people up there. The point is not that we can or can’t lift large numbers of people, it’s that there is a plausible way to get into space (say in a decade or two) for an affordable price. If we can’t make raw materials off earth, we’re going to be limited to launching bus/plane sized things with limited range.I believe a manned mission to Mars, is at this point, worthless and a waste of money and effort.
I would:
1. Concentrate on building a moon/orbital space base that people can realistically live in for a long period. In order to learn what we can for when we eventually branch out to other planets/have jumping off points.
2. Concentrate on energy harnessing techniques/mining techniques to produce food, water, oxygen and other manufacturing to be able to make stuff in space to use for future missions.
3. For pure science reasons, Venus probe with capture and return capabilities to get samples and get them back to Earth. If we find actual life, especially having spawned independently from Earth, then this is profound and implies life is everywhere in the Universe.
4. Similar trips to Enceladus etc.
I would:
1. Concentrate on building a moon/orbital space base that people can realistically live in for a long period. In order to learn what we can for when we eventually branch out to other planets/have jumping off points.
2. Concentrate on energy harnessing techniques/mining techniques to produce food, water, oxygen and other manufacturing to be able to make stuff in space to use for future missions.
3. For pure science reasons, Venus probe with capture and return capabilities to get samples and get them back to Earth. If we find actual life, especially having spawned independently from Earth, then this is profound and implies life is everywhere in the Universe.
4. Similar trips to Enceladus etc.
The_Nugget said:
I believe a manned mission to Mars, is at this point, worthless and a waste of money and effort.
I would:
1. Concentrate on building a moon/orbital space base that people can realistically live in for a long period. In order to learn what we can for when we eventually branch out to other planets/have jumping off points.
2. Concentrate on energy harnessing techniques/mining techniques to produce food, water, oxygen and other manufacturing to be able to make stuff in space to use for future missions.
3. For pure science reasons, Venus probe with capture and return capabilities to get samples and get them back to Earth. If we find actual life, especially having spawned independently from Earth, then this is profound and implies life is everywhere in the Universe.
4. Similar trips to Enceladus etc.
There is an argument that anything which is expedient for a short term goal is a diversion from a long term goal. Apollo ultimately set back working and living in space by decades and then baked in shuttle which did the same.I would:
1. Concentrate on building a moon/orbital space base that people can realistically live in for a long period. In order to learn what we can for when we eventually branch out to other planets/have jumping off points.
2. Concentrate on energy harnessing techniques/mining techniques to produce food, water, oxygen and other manufacturing to be able to make stuff in space to use for future missions.
3. For pure science reasons, Venus probe with capture and return capabilities to get samples and get them back to Earth. If we find actual life, especially having spawned independently from Earth, then this is profound and implies life is everywhere in the Universe.
4. Similar trips to Enceladus etc.
My human space flight strategy:
- Fix cost to orbit
- Fix cost to luna
- Build resource extracting base on the moon.
- Once you have a sustained presence on the moon you can move luna metals to earth orbit relatively cheaply to build hotels, casinos, houses, labs universities in low earth orbit.
- Head out to Mars to build an exploration base.
Going to Mars is orders of magnitude more difficult than the moon because once you set out you're on your own for years and minutes away for communications you need to scale (a large number of large ships) up to avoid Apollo 13 type failures resulting in slow death 500 days before rescue.
Elon Musk's desire to go to Mars is entirely related to eternal fame for great deeds. I doubt a million people will go there for a very long time. See the Antarctic. My reason for this is that most human achievement is related to sex:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJ6knaienVE
While the first few people going to Mars will be world famous the next 100 will be as famous as the current people on the ISS. Going to Mars will be harsh, thankless and similar to over wintering in Antarctica it will also feature the cabin fever and tyranny of being stuck with people you have fallen out with, don't like your boss well you are stuck with them for 2 years. You aren't going to find freedom on Mars for decades/hundreds of years you will be dependent on the other people you are with and on supplies from earth.
In short this won't be where the cool people hang out for a long time, it won't be a place to raise a family it probably won't have that many women. Similar to the Antarctic I don't think people will want to live there, they will go for a live changing 2-5 years (assuming the gravity doesn't mess you up long term).
Low earth orbit and the moon are however places that you can get to in time periods comparable to a city break. I can see millions of people who would like to visit space (if you can get the 1 in 100 chance of dying down), probably enough to build sufficient infrastructure to allow people to live up there. You will need millions of people to put their hands in their pocket to make this happen. Furthermore in reference to the above Futurama video, once LEO is opened up to visit at reasonable costs then you will draw the elites of fashion, arts, music, sports as well as science and education. This will build a cultural offering which will draw people in similar to London, Paris, New York today. What draws people to live in a place is the people who live there.
Dua Lipa's zero G party or Elon Musk's martian soggy biscuit?
BTW the National Space Society have a roadmap:
https://space.nss.org/milestones-to-space-settleme...
https://space.nss.org/wp-content/uploads/NSS-roadm...
With regards to millions on Mars, I could see hundreds of people exploring it for decades. If it is possible to live their indefinitely I'm sure some of them may decide to stay and have children there. The next stage would mirror where the Antarctic is today which would be as a cruise destination, I don't see this happening until we are using substantially faster drives so your minimum trip isn't a 2 year stretch.
Edited by Talksteer on Sunday 4th October 22:11
ash73 said:
Talksteer said:
My reason for this is that most human achievement is related to sex:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJ6knaienVE
The problem with that theory is as soon as anyone, human or robot, regularly says yes we get bored, so they'd be upgraded to say no occasionally, then they'd make it goal based; go out and get a job, improve your social status, be a constructive member of society... and before you know it we're right back where we started.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJ6knaienVE
The point is that most human behaviour can be related to things that in a hunter gatherer society would be linked to procreation. The desire for recognition for deeds/fame is one of them. The desire to be around lots of accomplished and attractive people is another.
The point is that LEO is likely to be a sort of supercharged version of Ibiza/Cancun/ Monaco/HVAR. (With the pro astronauts as super club reps :-) )
Mars is likely to be like the Antarctic.
https://www.economist.com/1843/2020/07/03/the-secr...
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