Discussion
mike74 said:
Would any military tech from 30 years ago really still be required to be kept classified now? Let alone for another 50 years?
This. We are talking about large objects with the ability to remain stationary with no sound, then shoot off in the blink of an eye. If the military had this capability for at least 30 years, we would know about it by now.
zek said:
This. We are talking about large objects with the ability to remain stationary with no sound, then shoot off in the blink of an eye.
If the military had this capability for at least 30 years, we would know about it by now.
No we wouldn't. There is a lot of pretty good evidence that the A-12 was replaced. It's also very unlikely that the stealth-helo used on the Bin Laden would be public knowledge today if the pilot hadn't fluffed the landing.If the military had this capability for at least 30 years, we would know about it by now.
If you have a SIGNIFICANT tech advantage there are often good reasons to keep quiet as long possible because as soon as it becomes public knowledge your adversaries start looking for counters or chasing the same tech.
We tend to hear about stuff where either ambition outstrips capability, or where the tech is an advance on an existing tech, or where you're bluffing and want an adversary to spunk a load of cash and research effort into a duff idea... e.g. Rail guns, B-21, and nuke powered aircraft.
Rail guns don't work but look scary, the b-21 is just a better b-2,and nuke powered aircraft are a stuoud idea.
take-good-care-of-the-forest-dewey said:
No we wouldn't. There is a lot of pretty good evidence that the A-12 was replaced. It's also very unlikely that the stealth-helo used on the Bin Laden would be public knowledge today if the pilot hadn't fluffed the landing.
If you have a SIGNIFICANT tech advantage there are often good reasons to keep quiet as long possible because as soon as it becomes public knowledge your adversaries start looking for counters or chasing the same tech.
We tend to hear about stuff where either ambition outstrips capability, or where the tech is an advance on an existing tech, or where you're bluffing and want an adversary to spunk a load of cash and research effort into a duff idea... e.g. Rail guns, B-21, and nuke powered aircraft.
Rail guns don't work but look scary, the b-21 is just a better b-2,and nuke powered aircraft are a stuoud idea.
This is true, but a counter argument to that is this is not a new phenomena, well documented reports of this nature have been going on for several decades, improved tech has allowed us to see and track them (SPY1 radar) If you have a SIGNIFICANT tech advantage there are often good reasons to keep quiet as long possible because as soon as it becomes public knowledge your adversaries start looking for counters or chasing the same tech.
We tend to hear about stuff where either ambition outstrips capability, or where the tech is an advance on an existing tech, or where you're bluffing and want an adversary to spunk a load of cash and research effort into a duff idea... e.g. Rail guns, B-21, and nuke powered aircraft.
Rail guns don't work but look scary, the b-21 is just a better b-2,and nuke powered aircraft are a stuoud idea.
This article gives an overview of recent events:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article...
"Consensus has gelled around the idea that at least some physical aircraft were flying during the encounters reported by Navy pilots. The DNI report supports this point of view: “Most of the UAP reported probably do represent physical objects, given that a majority of UAP were registered across multiple sensors, to include radar, infrared, electro-optical, weapon seekers, and visual observation.”
The repeated sightings around military ships makes U.S. defense officials wonder if another country with malicious motives could be responsible.
Russia and China, both geopolitical foes with rapidly advancing militaries and a keen interest in blunting the U.S. Navy’s influence around the globe, have been put forward as primary suspects. A theory within defense circles is that at least one foreign navy has been flying aircraft near American vessels to spy on their reactions.
This explanation is satisfyingly rational, but details of the UAP encounters leave a lot of room for doubt. If there were aircraft flying near the Navy jets, and they were not American, where did they launch from?
When Super Hornets encountered a UAP near Jacksonville in January 2015, there did happen to be a Russian military vessel transiting the area. The Viktor Leonov, a Russian Navy intelligence warship, arrived in Havana, Cuba, on January 20, 2015. The spy ship collects signals, but it is not a launch platform for experimental aircraft—submarines would be a better option for that.
Russian submarines are as good or better at prowling U.S. coastlines now as they were during the Cold War, and it is conceivable that a submarine surfaced to deploy powered drones or balloons with radar reflectors. Perhaps the Viktor Leonov was on the scene to help collect data generated when the provocative objects were spotted by befuddled U.S. pilots and radar operators.
Cheap, expendable balloons could also explain the shape of some of the UAPs reported, as well as the glimpse of one seemingly dropping into the waves. Sub-launched spy balloons have been around since at least 1959, when the CIA dabbled with the trick, but no comparable, modern balloon program is known to exist in the U.S. or elsewhere. The U.S. Navy is, however, outfitting submarines with powered drones like AeroVironment’s Blackwing—a small winged drone equipped with a sensor suite—and other nations are surely following suit.
However, balloons don’t accelerate to high speeds or make sharp turns, and Tic-Tac, Gimbal, and Go-Fast appeared to lack flight control surfaces that would allow for high-speed maneuvers, such as wings or a tail. The objects also had no visible exhaust, even when seen in infrared.
Drone technology in 2004 and even 2015 was nowhere near as evolved as it is now, and even the known experimental craft of today would have an impossible time replicating some of the UAPs’ feats. During the 2004 incident, for example, Fravor says he saw the Tic-Tac accelerate so quickly that his eye couldn’t follow it. Radar logs on the U.S.S. Princeton seemed to back up the claim, spotting the UAP 60 miles away from Fravor’s jet just seconds after he saw it pull away from him.
The radar returns recorded by military ships and warplanes should provide the most reliable data about what was in the air during these encounters, but the mystery only deepens when such data is considered. During the 2015 Gimbal incident, for example, Navy pilots remarked that the radar picked up a “whole fleet” of UAPs, which seemed to merge, vanish, and do impossible aerial feats. It’s a detail that chills the blood of practitioners of a shadowy art known as electronic warfare.
Secret world of the crows
There is an ongoing, invisible cat-and-mouse game between designers of U.S. weapon systems and those made by Russia and China. In places like Syria, Taiwan, and Ukraine, military specialists, nicknamed crows, vie for dominance over the electromagnetic spectrum.
“Over time, the sensors on an aircraft or a missile get more and more sophisticated,” says Mike Meaney, Northrop Grumman’s vice president of Land and Maritime Sensors. “On the flip side, usually within short order, they have new and different ways to spoof or fool those sensors to make them think something’s happening that really isn’t.”
When radar operators receive returns showing things that are impossible—like extremely fast-moving objects and vanishing swarms of aircraft—electronic warfare is the first thing a crow considers. “If I see one enemy plane, and all of a sudden it becomes 20 planes in my display—I’m being spoofed,” Meany says. Such funhouse mirror tricks are useful for avoiding anti-aircraft weapons, which often initially rely on radar to track targets.
Spoofing sounds a lot like what happened in the Gimbal encounters, and the DNI report addresses the possibility. “UAP reportedly appeared to exhibit unusual flight characteristics,” it states. “These observations could be the result of sensor errors, spoofing, or observer misperception and require additional rigorous analysis.” But if spoofing was involved, it would be very advanced tech for 2015. “That’s really the higher level of electronic warfare,” Meany notes.
If the Russian spy ship in Cuba was part of an intelligence gathering operation using covert tools of electronic warfare, that would mean the Kremlin unveiled a potentially sensitive system that would be more valuable as a surprise during an actual conflict. There are vast military ranges in Russia and China where sensitive systems can be tested without tipping their hand—just as there are within the United States.
Meaney says a cardinal rule in electronic warfare is: The less shown, the better. “As far as the cat-and-mouse goes, all sides are very careful in what they show and when they show it,” he says. “We don’t show it until we need it, and it’s been that way for five decades.”
Even if spoofing can explain some of the strange things seen on radar screens, it can’t explain what pilots saw with their own eyes, or the objects captured on video. Perhaps a combination of physical objects and electronic warfare is responsible for some of the UAP incidents, but no one seems to be able to put all the puzzle pieces together in a way that makes sense."
Edited by zek on Saturday 17th July 14:38
@zek
I was specifically addressing the 'we'd know about it'
UFOs are a fascinating topic, and some of the foo fighter accounts are harder to explain away given their age. I don't rule them out but occam"s razor...
Funnily enough I saw a 'UFO' yesterday whilst on a work call as I was looking out of the window.
At first glance it was a high speed metallic spherical object travelling at low altitude changing it's shape with pulsing light.
It was a metallic party helium balloon close up dougal! Hence appearing to be travelling fast.
Easy to see where the stories come from.
I was specifically addressing the 'we'd know about it'
UFOs are a fascinating topic, and some of the foo fighter accounts are harder to explain away given their age. I don't rule them out but occam"s razor...
Funnily enough I saw a 'UFO' yesterday whilst on a work call as I was looking out of the window.
At first glance it was a high speed metallic spherical object travelling at low altitude changing it's shape with pulsing light.
It was a metallic party helium balloon close up dougal! Hence appearing to be travelling fast.
Easy to see where the stories come from.
Edited by take-good-care-of-the-forest-dewey on Sunday 18th July 08:48
paulguitar said:
It’s frustrating that in a world where nearly everyone has an HD camera with them all of the time, most of what we see of UFO’s and ghosts is grainy footage taken with potatoes.
What do you mean by ‘national security threat’.
This is a photo of Elon Musks Starlink satellites passing overhead.What do you mean by ‘national security threat’.
And this is my effort of taking a photo of the same thing, on a clear night, using my iPhone 11 Pro Max + (or whatever it’s called).
Granted, I’m no David Bailey, I just pointed and clicked, but this photo was taken on a perfectly clear night with very little light pollution, on a phone that’s sold on the strength of its camera.
I suspect that the reason why almost all photos of strange objects in the sky look crap is because the person using the camera is rubbish at taking photos and that they’re using pretty crap equipment.
mike74 said:
Would any military tech from 30 years ago really still be required to be kept classified now? Let alone for another 50 years?
This all depends on how much one side is aware of or believes the other side has similar technology/development that would redeem the tech in question to be "worthless" or still of value, in terms of either providing an advantage or providing any form of benefit to maintain a strategic or tactical use for the purpose of national interests. The whole reason for the likes of Area 51 and other high security bases in the super-power nations is to protect national interests for as long as they can. So I wouldn't be overly surprised if there were some things that have been kept secret for 30 to 50 years.
The main problem of course (apart from espionage), is that once a new tech is put to use it becomes "open business" for the rest of the world to investigate and copy. Similar to how Formula 1 works.
My sighting of something unexplained was early one morning, I was working on a job in Liverpool.
I was looking up at a passenger jet flying high leaving the exhaust trails behind. From its right came a large silver ball, it passed behind the jet going through the trails, turned in a large arc and followed the plane.
All over in seconds, no chance of getting the phone out which would have been no good anyway considering the height they were flying at.
Just amazing and turned my mild interest in the subject to definite belief.
I was looking up at a passenger jet flying high leaving the exhaust trails behind. From its right came a large silver ball, it passed behind the jet going through the trails, turned in a large arc and followed the plane.
All over in seconds, no chance of getting the phone out which would have been no good anyway considering the height they were flying at.
Just amazing and turned my mild interest in the subject to definite belief.
paulguitar said:
daveco said:
It's very frustrating that no one has any high quality footage of a UFO, and even more frustrating that the MOD would deem it a national security threat if they did have said footage.
It’s frustrating that in a world where nearly everyone has an HD camera with them all of the time, most of what we see of UFO’s and ghosts is grainy footage taken with potatoes. What do you mean by ‘national security threat’
Images of the craft could potentially indicate what power source it is using, materials used for construction etc. If that info was to become universally available then other, more belligerent nations could use it as a political tool to increase armaments, military spending/investment to protect themselves from such an advanced threat.
It would likely affect international relations and potentially lead to another era of spying and paranoia not seen since the Atomic bomb was being developed.
daveco said:
As in, if it is advanced tech they are testing then they would want it kept secret for as long as humanly possible.
Images of the craft could potentially indicate what power source it is using, materials used for construction etc. If that info was to become universally available then other, more belligerent nations could use it as a political tool to increase armaments, military spending/investment to protect themselves from such an advanced threat.
It would likely affect international relations and potentially lead to another era of spying and paranoia not seen since the Atomic bomb was being developed.
Gotcha, thanks.Images of the craft could potentially indicate what power source it is using, materials used for construction etc. If that info was to become universally available then other, more belligerent nations could use it as a political tool to increase armaments, military spending/investment to protect themselves from such an advanced threat.
It would likely affect international relations and potentially lead to another era of spying and paranoia not seen since the Atomic bomb was being developed.
randomeddy said:
paulguitar said:
What do you mean by 'definite belief' ?
Belief that there are things flying about that are unidentified. I think that for many people until there is an obvious explanation for something, they are open to it being extraterrestrial, which as we've seen explained here, is a bit of a non-starter.
It's so appealing though, that there should be some amazing explanation, rather than a logical one. Remember in 'The X-Files', there was actually a poster on the wall with a flying saucer and the words 'I Want to Believe'. I guess we all have a bit of that in us somewhere.
paulguitar said:
It's so appealing though, that there should be some amazing explanation, rather than a logical one. Remember in 'The X-Files', there was actually a poster on the wall with a flying saucer and the words 'I Want to Believe'. I guess we all have a bit of that in us somewhere.
In a slight way I do want to believe…..I’d say it is a certainty that somewhere up / out there, there is life on other planets, even if it’s just microorganisms.
If that life is curious enough and advanced enough to travel to Earth, then as an entire species, we’re probably completely f
ked !Unless what we’ve been seeing is all a hoax, we’re probably f
ked anyway, just by slightly less varying degrees.If it’s USA tech, it starts an arms race, (which isn’t good).
If it’s Russian / Chinese tech, that has alarming repercussions.
Two videos one looking at the possibility that the tic tac is America military.
https://youtu.be/_lml2D4eHbQ
The other a sighting I haven't heard about.
https://youtu.be/d9BtFIeuCn4
https://youtu.be/_lml2D4eHbQ
The other a sighting I haven't heard about.
https://youtu.be/d9BtFIeuCn4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AkGkOdpxAL8&t=...
Some very interesting testimony from very experienced pilots/aviation experts.
Most describe the craft as being huge in size, 1 mile long and 1/2 a mile wide but capable of outrunning/outmaneuvering F16s.
Some very interesting testimony from very experienced pilots/aviation experts.
Most describe the craft as being huge in size, 1 mile long and 1/2 a mile wide but capable of outrunning/outmaneuvering F16s.
zek said:
There are compelling pictures, but not available to the public:
The Calvine incident is a good example:
The 6 pictures were due to be declassified this year, but the MOD have now said the records will not be released until 2072 :
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/perth-k...
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/6144270/ufo-...
Well that's irritating.The Calvine incident is a good example:
The 6 pictures were due to be declassified this year, but the MOD have now said the records will not be released until 2072 :
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/perth-k...
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/6144270/ufo-...
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