Could 2014 be a year of unexpected outcomes, like 2009?

[toppstuff]

What do people think of the outlook for 2014?

What is the general mood among the teams as they get deeper into the development of next years cars?

If we look back at 2009, no-one really expected the Honda ( revitalised as a Brawn) to have such a performance advantage. There were rumours in testing that the car was a bit special, tempered by the fact that Brawn had no major sponsors and the car was parading around in appliance white looking unloved and unwanted. When the season started and the Brawn disappeared into the distance, everyone was quite shocked and so the pattern for 2009 was set.

Could the same thing happen in 2014? Or will Newey simply show everyone up again?

Personally, I find the prospect for next season to be much more interesting than seeing the current season through to the end. Maybe, just maybe, things are about to get shaken up.

Caterham for race wins maybe?

[CaptainSensib1e]

Well its ertiahly the biggest change of rules for many years. I'm sure there will be a few surprise winners and losers. It might be more to do with engines than design though. One of the newer power plants might have slight advantage, or one might be susecptible to failure. Either way, I'm really looking forward to next season.

[IainT]

There could be a new 'killer' development like the double diffuser that led Brawn to an unexpected title but I think most are expecting the engine and energy recovery systems to be the absolute key. Aero cleverness is relatively easily copied but the fundamentals aren't.

If one engine supplier manages to pull a blinder - either power, delivery or fuel management then all teams with that engine will be looking good.

I'm guessing that the packaging of that plus related harvesting systems will be the defining factor. I expect RBR to run away with it is Renault get it right but I'm strongly hoping Mercedes power is the thing to have next year.

[P-Jay]

The recent story on the front page make me realise the changes are even greater than I suspected. It's so much more than just V8 N/a to V6 Turbo.

Could make a huge difference to RB, the gossip was Newey was terribly unfussed about Kers when it came about and refused to compromise his design to accommodate it - which is sort of backed up by the amount of Kers failures at least one of their cars has had

Seems next years Kers will be twice as powerful, and also charged by heat from the exhaust - get the packaging for that lot wrong and you'll see your cars parked at the side of the track a lot.

Smaller wings, far less, if any opportunity to blow your aero with exhaust gasses. Teams will need a big development budget, be very clever or just lucky - ideally all 3.

[PaulG40]

P-Jay said:

Teams will need a big development budget, be very clever or just lucky - ideally all 3.

Again it comes down to money at the end of the day, the teams further down the grid with minimal budget for development will suffer and the major players will run away with it. I'd like to see an upset where a lower team with a lower budget just gets it spot on and shocks them all but I can't see it happening in practice.

[P-Jay]

PaulG40 said:

P-Jay said:

Teams will need a big development budget, be very clever or just lucky - ideally all 3.

Again it comes down to money at the end of the day, the teams further down the grid with minimal budget for development will suffer and the major players will run away with it. I'd like to see an upset where a lower team with a lower budget just gets it spot on and shocks them all but I can't see it happening in practice.

It can happen, Brawn as above didn't have a pot to piss in, admittedly apart from incorporating the Mercedes Engine their Car was the fruit of a full year of Honda throwing money at it - at the opposite end of the scale Toyota F1 had a budget that would make most teams today blush and achieved very little.

But you're right, I suspect the back 3 will still be the back 3, the middle runners will stay where they are the only difference should be McL taking their place near the front again and Lotus taking their place in the middle.

[Derek Smith]

IainT said:

There could be a new 'killer' development like the double diffuser that led Brawn to an unexpected title but I think most are expecting the engine and energy recovery systems to be the absolute key. Aero cleverness is relatively easily copied but the fundamentals aren't.

If one engine supplier manages to pull a blinder - either power, delivery or fuel management then all teams with that engine will be looking good.

I'm guessing that the packaging of that plus related harvesting systems will be the defining factor. I expect RBR to run away with it is Renault get it right but I'm strongly hoping Mercedes power is the thing to have next year.

If one engine supplier does pull a 'blinder' then the other suppliers will be allowed to modify their engines. The precept behind the current regs is to get an almost one-make series. Further, of course, the engines will not just grace on car.

I think - although without any evidence - along the same lines as you that packaging will be the critical factor.

Mercedes seem to be putting a lot into next season, and one would assume that this includes engine development. If, for any reason, they get it wrong then I could see the plug being pulled from an official team level. It is probable that their plans did not conform to those of Brawn. So one would assume that the board is taking more of a personal interest in the way the team is run. Historically, this has not been a menu for excellence over recent years.

My feeling is that there will be an initial period where one engine is shown to be better than the others, but two teams crack how to put it all together. Then, around race 5, the FIA will allow 'development' by the other engine suppliers.

One wonders what the tyre situation will be. Whilst the suggestion is everything will remain as of this season, given the pressures on Pirelli, I would assume there has been significant negotiation as to the specifics. So my belief - my fervent hope - is that tyre use will not dictate winners.

[entropy]

History shows you radical rule changes can change the order for the first year at least: Benetton in the mid-90s and Renault in the mid-2000s.

[designndrive62]

I'm just hoping the cars look like the brawn. The brawn is hands down the best looking f1 car since the early 90's.

[toppstuff]

Williams are pretty handy with KERS tech. They have an established business advising companies in hybrid power.

Wouldn't it be great if they got an edge, Brawn style ?

[designndrive62]

toppstuff said:

Williams are pretty handy with KERS tech. They have an established business advising companies in hybrid power.

Wouldn't it be great if they got an edge, Brawn style ?

Not to mention it's their unit in the Audi r18 and Porsche hybrid

[vonuber]

Regardless of what happens, there will always be some moaning on here.

[entropy]

toppstuff said:

Williams are pretty handy with KERS tech. They have an established business advising companies in hybrid power.

Wouldn't it be great if they got an edge, Brawn style ?

Williams uses Renault KERS which is a super capacitor ie. energy stored and released from batteries.

Williams KERS business is based on their flywheel technology. They don't use it in F1 because of packaging issues.

[S0 What]

The fixed ratios will make it more mixed from track to track (i hope!) along with reliability obv, i'm not expecting another "brawn" season from one of the lower teams but maybe just maybe, somone will outpace RB for an entire season

[Muzzer79]

Hopes:

Tyres are still 'fragile' but allow drivers to push

Mercedes' investment pays dividends

RBR are still in it, but Vettel actually has to work for performance.

Ferrari finally deliver a season-long competitive car for Alonso and/or Kimi to be in the hunt.

Fears:

RBR walk it again.