The Official Monaco GP Thread 2014***SPOILERS***
Discussion
rj2k11 said:
Chipmunk1 said:
So if they carry on getting 1-2s for the rest of the season, assuming Hamilton is getting the 1s does it still come down to a final race decides all scenario ?
Quiet morning so I've done the maths.This is based on the Mercedes pair finishing 1st and 2nd for the remaining 13 races with no retirements.
If Lewis was to lose the last race we would need to win 8 of the next 12 for him to still win the championship.
If Lewis was to win the last race he would need to match Nicos wins 6-6 in the next 12 races to win the championship.
Lewis winning 10 of the remaining 12 races would mean he could afford not to finish the last race and still finish ahead of Nico.
13 races still to go: assume Mercedes get the 1-2 for every one of the next 12 races, with the final race still to run.
If Lewis wins between 3 and 9 inclusive of those 12, then the final, 13th, race becomes the decider. Otherwise the championship is already decided before the final race.
Tony2or4 said:
13 races still to go: assume Mercedes get the 1-2 for every one of the next 12 races, with the final race still to run.
If Lewis wins between 3 and 9 inclusive of those 12, then the final, 13th, race becomes the decider. Otherwise the championship is already decided before the final race.
If Lewis wins between 3 and 9 inclusive of those 12, then the final, 13th, race becomes the decider. Otherwise the championship is already decided before the final race.
IainT said:
Is there any chance of them scrapping the stupid 2x points rule for the last race? Surely it'll be gone next season and with the Merc domination won't actually add any value this season (not that it would have).
Actually this becomes very interesting: if they did scrap the 2x rule for the last race, then my summary changes to this: if Lewis wins between 5 and 8 inclusive of those 12, then the final, 13th, race becomes the decider. Otherwise the championship is already decided before the final race.In other words, assuming a Merc 1-2 for the next 12 races, the 2x rule actually increases the likelihood that the championship goes down to the wire.
Lost soul said:
What are the chances of that
6 races so far and lewis has one 4 of them. so on that basis his chance of winning each race is 2/3rds. to win the next 10 races in a row would be 0.015. not high. but really what you're saying is, hamilton needs to score an average of 7 points more per race over the next 11 races to go into the final round certain of being the winner. even just one DNF by rosberg with hamilton winning means hamilton can afford to finish second to rosberg twice and still have the necessary advantage.RealSquirrels said:
Lost soul said:
What are the chances of that
6 races so far and lewis has one 4 of them. so on that basis his chance of winning each race is 2/3rds. to win the next 10 races in a row would be 0.015. not high. but really what you're saying is, hamilton needs to score an average of 7 points more per race over the next 11 races to go into the final round certain of being the winner. even just one DNF by rosberg with hamilton winning means hamilton can afford to finish second to rosberg twice and still have the necessary advantage.Lost soul said:
I think it will be closer than that , also at some stage RB will get their act together and start to at least split the two mercs
I hope so and it's highly likely that they'll crash into each other at some point, leaving one or both cars written off, or slow enough to be caught by the other teams.Lost soul said:
I think it will be closer than that , also at some stage RB will get their act together and start to at least split the two mercs
I agree. Merc (and particularly Rosberg) have to fear Red Bull pulling their finger out soon and start taking points away.Anxiety to make hay while the sun shines may have contributed to last Saturday's events.
One can easily imagine a similar scenario to Button's championship with Brawn - in the latter half of the season Brawn's advantage was greatly reduced and it was only the huge lead that Button built up in the first half of the season that gained him the championship (as opposed to an Alonso-style consitency throughout the season).
braddo said:
One can easily imagine a similar scenario to Button's championship with Brawn - in the latter half of the season Brawn's advantage was greatly reduced and it was only the huge lead that Button built up in the first half of the season that gained him the championship (as opposed to an Alonso-style consitency throughout the season).
I'm not sure. The engine advantage seems so large, and with fundamental changes restricted, I'm not sure the others can catch up on the performance gap. Double diffuser was easier (effort and aero/parts based)swisstoni said:
Lost soul said:
I think it will be closer than that , also at some stage RB will get their act together and start to at least split the two mercs
I agree. Merc (and particularly Rosberg) have to fear Red Bull pulling their finger out soon and start taking points away.Anxiety to make hay while the sun shines may have contributed to last Saturday's events.
RBR will be lucky to get 3rd in Canada - I reckon The Hulk will do well there. Spa and Monza will also be very tough for RBR.
The other question will be when do teams really slow down the development of this years car to switch to next year.
Almost 1/3 rd of the way through now, 6 more races of this and I can see a lot of teams switching focus to next year, Merc could keep the advantage all the way through.
Realistically Redbull need to make a significant jump in the next 2-3 races for them to continue pushing this year.
Almost 1/3 rd of the way through now, 6 more races of this and I can see a lot of teams switching focus to next year, Merc could keep the advantage all the way through.
Realistically Redbull need to make a significant jump in the next 2-3 races for them to continue pushing this year.
I wouldn't bother me at all to see Mercedes walk the championship and I would like to see Hamilton win the drivers' crown. I hope it is straightforward but I can imagine some curve balls on the way - what if Lewis and Nico take each other out not once but 2-3 times? What if they keep turning up their engines which leads to unreliability and perhaps breaching the limit of engines in a season?
All the while, Fernando Metronome keeps on circling...
All the while, Fernando Metronome keeps on circling...
swisstoni said:
Lost soul said:
I think it will be closer than that , also at some stage RB will get their act together and start to at least split the two mercs
I agree. Merc (and particularly Rosberg) have to fear Red Bull pulling their finger out soon and start taking points away.Anxiety to make hay while the sun shines may have contributed to last Saturday's events.
I think the biggest fear is, when do Merc turn to next years car!
They have the this season pretty much sorted, even with developments of other teams, if they were to say win 2 more races, and then switch to next years cars - they would STILL be ahead for a good few races (1 sec is a lot to catch up).
They have the this season pretty much sorted, even with developments of other teams, if they were to say win 2 more races, and then switch to next years cars - they would STILL be ahead for a good few races (1 sec is a lot to catch up).
Mikey G said:
As far as I know there are no significant rule changes for next year so they can develop as much as they like this year as most of the parts will continue over to the following season.
As much as the others will start to catch up that's a huge advantage to take forwards.Gassing Station | Formula 1 | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff