Lewis Hamilton

[Derek Smith]

Never you mind said:

Doesn't every F1 driver want to drive for them at some point of their career?

I think, after reading this thread from the beginning to the end that everyone is agreement that Hamilton is class act and that we are currently watching one the greatest driver to grace F1.

Always remember that we are living through a time that fans in the future will call the golden age.

I'm not sure they'd be far wrong either. We've had season after season where the WDC has been decided in the last race or two. It wasn't so long ago that half way through the season it was settled, or for a while, at the first race. Up until the summer break, no driver had won consecutive races. Whilst the last race was the first time LH took the lead, he was widely tipped to relinquish it last Sunday. That he didn't just adds to the spice.

We had a crash at the first corner that took out three WDCs, and yet another went on to win the race. There's been many a season when the average quality of driver has been very low. There has been some excellent duels down the field. Last Sunday there were three cars all having a go at one another for a few laps.

I'm enjoying 2017.

[LDN]

Derek Smith said:

Always remember that we are living through a time that fans in the future will call the golden age.

I'm not sure they'd be far wrong either. We've had season after season where the WDC has been decided in the last race or two. It wasn't so long ago that half way through the season it was settled, or for a while, at the first race. Up until the summer break, no driver had won consecutive races. Whilst the last race was the first time LH took the lead, he was widely tipped to relinquish it last Sunday. That he didn't just adds to the spice.

We had a crash at the first corner that took out three WDCs, and yet another went on to win the race. There's been many a season when the average quality of driver has been very low. There has been some excellent duels down the field. Last Sunday there were three cars all having a go at one another for a few laps.

I'm enjoying 2017.

Very good points.

[Dr Z]

tankplanker said:

Dr Z said:

The mind games and nastiness is fine by me, he's a big boy and can take it, been known to dish some out too.

It defined how Rosberg won 2016 for me, with games off the track rather than a straight up beating on the track as Lewis proved susceptible to the mind games, which is a weakness on Lewis's part. After 2015 finished Rosberg looked completely fed up and beaten down, he came back with a new approach in 2016 and it worked, fair play to him, but its not an approach that I'd ever want to take even with a world title at stake.

Interesting that you'd see that Rosberg beat Hamilton off track in 2016. Whilst I agree that there were some questionable incidents such as the Spanish GP start, my impression was that Rosberg lacked the killer instinct to actually finish the job when he had his team mate over the precipice.

I'm of course referring to the team order at Monaco. If it were me, I would have flatly refused to move over as Hamilton has done on another occasion. A perfect opportunity to fk him up good and proper. Hamilton was still searching for his first win of the season, and in that moment Rosberg failed to pull the trigger. I'd argue that Monaco '16 proved to be a big kick start for Hamilton to help him mount some sort of a challenge through the year. The belief was back from that win.

tankplanker said:

Dr Z said:

Right, 2-1 WDCs in favour of Hamilton is fine by me. All three years were riddled with Merc reliability problems that affected Lewis or Nico in their Championship campaigns. I documented it in this forum somewhere. It would have been a shame if it was 3-0 to Hamilton at the end of 2016 as it ignores the huge part Rosberg played in pushing Hamilton to greater heights, and to keep the racing interesting.

I agree, 2016 was one of the best recent title fights, just wish there had been no nastiness. I'd argue that this year has been better than 2016 as Ferrari and Merc both have very good cars, but good at different tracks so it has lead for more interesting racing. If Merc had been able to keep Rosberg this season we would have had a very interesting battle.

In 2016 its the extra DNF or the races were one of the Redbulls managed to sneak in between Lewis and Rosberg that cost Lewis that year and especially Baku and China. Anyone of those and Lewis would have won the WDC, the same cannot be said for the previous two years, with Lewis ~60 points ahead each time.

My overall view of the three hybrid years is this:

2014: Nico was the quicker driver on Saturdays, but Lewis was quicker on Sundays. Points get given on Sundays, and Lewis had better race pace. We can argue about the margins and I think the final points margin reflect his superiority over Nico (double points notwithstanding) as I’m a sucker for drivers who show superior race pace. That’s the litmus test for me.

2015: The points margin at the end of the year does not reflect Lewis’ advantage over Nico, as he bore the brunt of reliability problems that prevented him from giving Lewis a real challenge through the year. Lewis was the quicker driver over a qualifying lap, but Nico’s race pace was equally good. It was a case of what could have been for Nico.

2016: It was Lewis’ turn to get bad reliability, which helped Nico in the early part of the season. The fact that other teams were much closer to Mercedes than the previous two years helped Lewis to close the gap in the middle and latter part of the season (didn’t help him much when he had grid penalties). Again absolutely nothing separating the two in terms of race pace. Overall, it was a case of what could have been for Lewis.

It’s all a bit academic now, but allow me to indulge in some alternate history too.

TL;DR. If my aunty had balls….

In 2015, I consider the Hungarian GP to be a turning point. A lot of the ‘racing luck’ went Hamilton’s way and that really played havoc with Nico’s challenge. In fact I could start with the British GP. Mid to latter part of the race, a slight drizzle. Nico was catching Lewis at a big rate of knots on slicks. Lewis was too slow, and had no choice but to pit for intermediates as he was losing time to others, but would you believe, it starts to tip it down in that exact moment. Alas, Nico had to drive one whole lap on slicks in that rain before they could pit.That could have gone either way but the points loss from there is small beer compared to what came afterwards.

Moving on to the Hungarian GP. Seb was leading as both Mercs had poor starts. Hamilton damaged his car at the start and was running in the midfield on course for a few points. A late race safety car gives Rosberg and Ricciardo a chance to challenge Vettel for a race win with Rosberg having better pace than the Red Bull and a big chance to catch up on points to Lewis in the WDC table. But would you believe it, an unfortunate racing incident (with Ricciardo) that could have been fine on another day meant Nico gets a puncture and ends up finishing behind Lewis!

On to the Italian GP. Merc introduce a powerful new engine spec at this weekend for both cars, and Nico had some issues with it and so had to revert to an old engine. This meant he qualifies 4th, and later on in the race he’s chasing Seb for a 2nd place finish with the engine turned up. As he closes in for the kill, the engine gives way. Hamilton wins the race. Getting further and further behind now in the points.

Let’s go to Singapore, a circuit that Nico goes well at. A mysterious lack of pace for Mercedes that weekend. Lewis suffers his only retirement of the year at this race. Funny that it should happen at a race when Rosberg had no chance of scoring big points and possibly winning, to close the points gap. He finishes a paltry (by Merc’s standards) 4th place. By now Nico is really fighting to keep his chances alive.

Japan. Nico get’s pole but poor start means Lewis is gone and Nico can only recover to 2nd. We’ll chalk this one up to driver error.

Russia. Another must win scenario. Outqualifies Lewis again and retires while leading the race due to …throttle pedal getting stuck! Another chance to catch up gone.

I mean there’s only so many issues and bad luck a man can handle. Sounds familiar? That was Lewis in 2016. That brings us nicely to Austin where he finally ‘lost’ the Championship after taking pole in wet conditions (Rosberg outqualifying Hamilton in the wet?!), and received a 2nd place podium cap lovingly presented by Lewis.

Because the race pace was similar between the two, if one gets ahead at the start it is more likely that the lead driver would win the race in 2015 & 2016. This is partly helped by the rigid Mercedes race strategy that favoured the lead driver and compounded by the fact that Merc still had a big pace advantage over the rest of the field on average in 2015.

You can see the different mindset of Lewis and Nico, depending on who was chasing or leading in their title fights of 2015 & 2016, and how that reflected in their performance on track. Second half of 2015, Nico was chasing Lewis and in the crunch races he was quicker than Lewis, who was content to sit back and pick up the pieces when Nico made a mistake. Many say that Lewis switched off after winning the title in 2015 and that allowed Nico to beat him for the last three races (in 2015). It’s a convenient excuse, but I think there is a grain of truth in it.

They both switched places in 2016, when Lewis was chasing Nico in the points. After Suzuka, Nico was content to sit back and bring it home. So you can see the dynamic changes depending on how far ahead one driver is of another, especially as the car still having a good performance advantage to the rest of the field that allowed them to do that. If there were other teams close on pure pace, they couldn’t afford to do that and maybe we could have seen how good both drivers are when performing under different kinds of pressure. This makes it difficult to judge relative driver performance in 2015 & 2016. Take US GP in 2015, generally Lewis is quicker than Nico in wet conditions, but Nico simply outperformed Lewis in qualifying and in the race in wet/damp conditions (until he made that mistake that allowed Lewis through).

Enough of my rambling. Lewis had the edge on Nico in 2015 in qualifying, but race pace was similar and therefore they pretty much finished where they were at the end of lap 1 on most occasions. The random nature of the Mercedes starts could well have decided the WDC if both cars had perfect reliability, more than any real performance differentiator between the drivers.

[sandman77]

Did anybody see Lewis on Jonathon Ross at the weekend? He was sitting next to Mel Brooks who kept taking the mick about his trousers and jacket. Lewis came across ok though but does seem to lack confidence when out his comfort zone.

[sparta6]

sandman77 said:

Lewis came across ok though but does seem to lack confidence when out his comfort zone.

He's certainly no Graham Hill. Not sure how he would deal with a broken leg like Mansell, Schumacher, Hill, Rossi etc.

He seems to excel when wrapped up in cotton wool.

[tardelli]

sandman77 said:

Did anybody see Lewis on Jonathon Ross at the weekend? He was sitting next to Mel Brooks who kept taking the mick about his trousers and jacket. Lewis came across ok though but does seem to lack confidence when out his comfort zone.

To be fair Mel Brooks has been at the Top of his Game for a long time and is a bit of a legend and Lewis was perhaps overawed by him,

[mko9]

tankplanker said:

For the longest time Vettel has battled against the perception that the car earned him the win, particularly when Danny Ric came into the team and beat him soundly. I think that is unfair on Vettel as he is clearly a quick driver and even proven he can pull off some stunning over takes, but he seems shy of facing a top level driver in the same team.

I have always felt there were two aspects to the car, and Vettel illustrates them well. The first and obvious one is, is it a good car that can win the championship. The second, and less obvious, is does it suit the driver.

When Vettel started at STR, they were using the previous year chassis for the first few races of the season. Vettel was being outperformed by Sebatian Bourdais, who while certainly a distinguished driver, didn't exactly light up the F1 field. As soon as STR fielded the new chassis, that better suited Vettel, he was off and running and Bourdais was never heard from again. My understanding from the analysis at the time was the old STR tended towards understeer (like a Champ car, I guess), while the new chassis tended a little more towards oversteer, which suited Vettel. It isn't necessarily enough to be in the best car, it also must suit your driving style so you can take full advantage.

[tankplanker]

Dr Z said:

... Nico’s race pace was equally good.

...Again absolutely nothing separating the two in terms of race pace.

Alternate history stuff

This applies to both of them, but Merc had the drivers managing race pace to save engines and tyres (tyres were particularly crap for everybody during this period) so much and because their nearest competitor was in another Merc so also using the same engine modes/tyre saving (partcularly after they insisted both drivers follow the same tyre strategy to reduce arguments) there was little risk this would backfire. So neither driver when in the lead from the other Merc driver pushed it to the limit. I think we saw in Bahrain 2014 just how fast both drivers could drive with both cars set on seemingly qually mode, building a ~25 second gap in the last 10 laps, which is fking mental. That was the last race we really saw all out driving from both of them when they were 1-2 during the race as if I remember correctly Merc prevented them from repeating what was an amazing performance from both of them and the car.

So I'm not a fan of suggesting one or the other had better race pace as after Bahrain neither would use anywhere near full performance unless they'd made a mistake or had a car problem and were trying to get through he field. It is a lot like the Vettel vs. Webber years were Vettel would often beat mark on the Sunday by out qualifying him on the Saturday, usually by a small margin. It is too hard to overtake safely when you are in the same car unless you don't give a st about having an accident, which both Rosberg and Lewis have caused over their time together. Merc keen to avoid looking like the favoured either driver also worked to prevent any under or over cuts during pit stops.

With the alternate history stuff, both 2014 and 2015 Rosberg would have needed multiple DNFs for Hamilton or similar point swings to win either of those WDCs. With 2016 Hamilton needed to place higher by one place in one race out of about half a dozen possibles.

mko9 said:

I have always felt there were two aspects to the car, and Vettel illustrates them well. The first and obvious one is, is it a good car that can win the championship. The second, and less obvious, is does it suit the driver.

When Vettel started at STR, they were using the previous year chassis for the first few races of the season. Vettel was being outperformed by Sebatian Bourdais, who while certainly a distinguished driver, didn't exactly light up the F1 field. As soon as STR fielded the new chassis, that better suited Vettel, he was off and running and Bourdais was never heard from again. My understanding from the analysis at the time was the old STR tended towards understeer (like a Champ car, I guess), while the new chassis tended a little more towards oversteer, which suited Vettel. It isn't necessarily enough to be in the best car, it also must suit your driving style so you can take full advantage.

I'd argue that the very best drivers can work around such difficulties.

[Dr Z]

tankplanker said:

This applies to both of them, but Merc had the drivers managing race pace to save engines and tyres (tyres were particularly crap for everybody during this period) so much and because their nearest competitor was in another Merc so also using the same engine modes/tyre saving (partcularly after they insisted both drivers follow the same tyre strategy to reduce arguments) there was little risk this would backfire. So neither driver when in the lead from the other Merc driver pushed it to the limit. I think we saw in Bahrain 2014 just how fast both drivers could drive with both cars set on seemingly qually mode, building a ~25 second gap in the last 10 laps, which is fking mental. That was the last race we really saw all out driving from both of them when they were 1-2 during the race as if I remember correctly Merc prevented them from repeating what was an amazing performance from both of them and the car.

So I'm not a fan of suggesting one or the other had better race pace as after Bahrain neither would use anywhere near full performance unless they'd made a mistake or had a car problem and were trying to get through he field. It is a lot like the Vettel vs. Webber years were Vettel would often beat mark on the Sunday by out qualifying him on the Saturday, usually by a small margin. It is too hard to overtake safely when you are in the same car unless you don't give a st about having an accident, which both Rosberg and Lewis have caused over their time together. Merc keen to avoid looking like the favoured either driver also worked to prevent any under or over cuts during pit stops.

Agree that the Merc drivers don't usually go full on, in the races. However, you look at the long runs to get a real idea of race pace. From what I've seen in 2015 & 2016, anything Hamilton can do, Rosberg did. Then it comes down to race craft, wet weather ability and who gets ahead at the 1st corner; the first two aspects, I concede Nico was found more in lacking compared to Hamilton. Even here there are times when Nico has surprised, and challenged the stereotype, so there is some doubt as to the accuracy of such stereotypes.

tankplanker said:

With the alternate history stuff, both 2014 and 2015 Rosberg would have needed multiple DNFs for Hamilton or similar point swings to win either of those WDCs. With 2016 Hamilton needed to place higher by one place in one race out of about half a dozen possibles.

Ah, this is where we differ. I don't believe Hamilton and Rosberg were seperated to such an extent (in 2015) that it would have required multiple Hamilton DNFs for Nico to get back in the game. All accounted for, I think Hamilton would have won the 2015 WDC with about 20 points margin. In 2014, it was close between them and it was great to see both really going for it in the final few races. Never quite saw that again in 2015 & 2016 due to the ebb and flow of the Championship.

FWIW, here's my revisionist take on the races:

2014	HAM	ROS	Comments
Australia	25	18	LH retired due to engine problems
Malaysia	25	18	-
Bahrain	25	18	-
China	25	18	-
Spain	25	18	-
Monaco	18	25	Qualifying shenanigans by NR. No change in the finishing order
Canada	0	18	LH's retirement was directly influenced by the racing between team mates. It was unfortunate he was behind rather than ahead, but NR had outqualified him, so fair play.
Austria	18	25	-
UK	18	25	NR had a gearbox problem and retired while in the lead.
Germany	18	25	Reliability issue in qualifying for LH. Finished 3rd in the end, but I'll say LH could have finished 2nd under normal circumstances
Hungary	15	12	LH directly influenced where NR finished by disobeying a team order. NR had a very good chance of winning this race if LH had obeyed. No change
Belgium	0	18	Racing incident. It's possibly a case of NR taking LH out! No change in the order.
Italy	25	18	-
Singapore	25	18	Mechanical for NR from about 2nd place.
Japan	25	18	-
Russia	25	18	-
USA	25	18	-
Brazil	18	25	-
Abu Dhabi	25	18	Mechanical for NR from 2nd place
Total Points	380	371	-

2015	HAM	ROS	Comments
Australia	25	18	-
Malaysia	18	15	-
China	25	18	-
Bahrain	25	18	Brake issues caused NR to lose 2nd place.
Spain	18	25	-
Monaco	25	18	Pit error caused LH to lose the win
Canada	25	18	-
Austria	18	25	-
UK	25	18	-
Hungary	6	18	Racing incident with RIC caused a certain 2nd place finish for NR.
Belgium	25	18	-
Italy	25	18	Reliability issue caused DNF for NR. Could have finished 2nd in normal circumstances
Singapore	12	10	Mechanical for LH.
Japan	25	18	-
Russia	18	25	Mechanical for NR
USA	25	18	-
Mexico	18	25	-
Brazil	18	25	-
Abu Dhabi	18	25	-
Total Points	394	373	-

2016	ROS	HAM	Comments
Australia	25	18	Ferrari threw away this race win, but it's racing.
Bahrain	25	18	Racing incident with another driver for LH, caused by a bad start
China	25	18	LH had mechanical issues.
Russia	25	18	Both drivers had to nurse issues in the race
Spain	0	0	Possible NR took LH out. Racing incident. No change
Monaco	6	25	NR obeyed team order that enabled LH to win the race. No change
Canada	10	25	Racing incident with LH sees NR punted down the order. No change
Azerbaijan	25	15	PU derate issue for LH prevents possible 3rd place finish
Austria	18	25	Racing incident with LH due to different tyre strategies. NR had a grid drop for a gearbox change that precipitated the issue
UK	18	25	Gearbox issue for NR in race prevents 2nd place finish
Hungary	18	25	-
Germany	12	25	-
Belgium	25	18	PU penalties for LH
Italy	25	18	-
Singapore	25	15	-
Malaysia	18	25	Racing incident with another driver for NR & engine blow up for LH in the lead
Japan	25	15	-
USA	18	25	-
Mexico	18	25	-
Brazil	18	25	-
Abu Dhabi	18	25	-
Total Points	397	428	-

Margin looks to be about the same in 2014 & 2015, all things considered. 2016 was very messy.

Edited by Dr Z on Tuesday 26th September 15:23

[anonymous-user]

sandman77 said:

Did anybody see Lewis on Jonathon Ross at the weekend? He was sitting next to Mel Brooks who kept taking the mick about his trousers and jacket. Lewis came across ok though but does seem to lack confidence when out his comfort zone.

His body language with Paloma Faith screamed I don't like this woman.

Other than that he came across well I thought.

[KevinCamaroSS]

Dr Z said:

Lots

I see this as one of your more 'pointless' posts. All it does is show that by your reckoning Hamilton should have won in all 3 years with Rosberg a close second. Not surprising considering the Merc was the class car of the field and most dispassionate observers will agree Hamilton lost 2016 mainly down to the retirement in Malaysia.

[Dr Z]

Wish I hadn't spent time writing such a pointless post. The point was to show that the gap between them in points at the end of '14 & 15 doesn't reflect how close they were in performance. Of course, it looks like Hamilton dominated all three Championships, if you only count Hamilton's retirements and issues. It might be news to some but car #44 wasn't the only one run by Merc.

[allsop83]

tankplanker said:

'd argue that the very best drivers can work around such difficulties.

Well look at guys like Alonso, Kimi, Jenson.....all these guys have seen (with varying success admittedly) different Formula from V10, V8, Blown Diffuser, KERS, Hybrid, 2017 High Downforce, Fuel Conservation, Varying Types of Tyres......

All meaning that you need to adjust your driving style to the car/conditions/Formula etc etc.

[thegreenhell]

KevinCamaroSS said:

I see this as one of your more 'pointless' posts. All it does is show that by your reckoning Hamilton should have won in all 3 years with Rosberg a close second. Not surprising considering the Merc was the class car of the field and most dispassionate observers will agree Hamilton lost 2016 mainly down to the retirement in Malaysia.

Many of those dispassionate observers would also consider 2-1 to Hamilton to be a very fair result over those three seasons, considering the relative performance of the two drivers.

Also, you can't just say that one event was the cause, unless it had happened in the final race of the season. Had that failure not happened at that time then you can't say that the following races would have played out exactly as they did. Rosberg has said that as soon as he got the win in Japan, meaning that he only needed to finish second in each of the next four races, his mindset changed and he was happy to follow Hamilton home without risking everything for the win. Had he needed to then he would no doubt have pushed harder at the end of the season.

[LDN]

I think their respective WDC counts, whilst at Mercedes, reflects perfectly on their abilities. Rosberg was a great driver and underestimated. I really took note of his performances against MS and realised that he's no joke.

I think Rosberg deserves his WDC despite the fact that, perhaps; all things being equal, Hamilton would have won them all. But that's not F1 and the WDC count reflects well on their time together I feel.

[KevinCamaroSS]

Don't get me wrong, Rosberg deserved his championship, he really pushed Hamilton all the way.

[glasgow mega snake]

After monaco 2014, Rosberg hasn't ever deserved a championship.

[KevinCamaroSS]

glasgow mega snake said:

After monaco 2014, Rosberg hasn't ever deserved a championship.

This sort of thing does seem to be the 'German' way........

[ellroy]

His twitter feed is saying big announcement tomorrow, anyone any clues?

[cuprabob]

ellroy said:

His twitter feed is saying big announcement tomorrow, anyone any clues?

Yip, he's gave up being a Vegan