1st Test 2017

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Discussion

RobGT81

5,229 posts

187 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
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Crafty_ said:
I wonder if Ferrari have/are working on that instead of outright speed

When everyone is on the same tyres, the Ferraris look quicker than the Mercs. Are people ignoring the timing screens?

Vocal Minority

8,582 posts

153 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
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I'm sorry to keep banging on about this. But I think everyone decided Mercedes were a mile out in front before a wheel was turned, and evidence is just being moulded around this conviction instead of influencing it

PhillipM

6,524 posts

190 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
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Yes, because it's the first test and they mean very little.

Hamilton was doing 1.22's at the end of a race sim on softs and he looked like he could have been on his phone at the same time for the all the effort he was having to put in.

Same with the fast times, they're 2 seconds off the outright pace at the minute.

And Ferrari have a bit of a history of being fast in testing...

Edited by PhillipM on Thursday 2nd March 13:46

anonymous-user

55 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
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RobGT81 said:

When everyone is on the same tyres, the Ferraris look quicker than the Mercs. Are people ignoring the timing screens?
The rule of thumb is that when Ferrari looks strong, it's down to low fuel or softer compound tyres, or Merc drivers taking it steady. When Mercedes put in a strong lap, it's deemed to not be because of low fuel or softer tyres. The Beeb in particular take this view, as if it's not physically possible for a team to have caught up to Mercedes.

In reality, we simply don't know yet - Merc are most likely sandbagging and have something left in reserve. Ferrari have been quite open about the fact that they're doing what they intended to and are very happy with progress. Make of that what you will, but they appear to at the very least, have a very good platform to build upon, whereas in recent years, the car was flawed from the get go and the season was spent working around inherent flaws. This week has gone well for them, both drivers seem happy - Seb in particular comparing it to his 2010 RB in terms of chuckability.

I have high hopes they'll be giving Mercedes a hard time, as it would be good for the sport. The elephant in the room at this point is Red Bull, who haven't shown any of their cards and are likely to have built a monster in the RB13.

This week has been about system checks and correlation of data against simulators given the upheaval in design due to the regulations. Q2 and Q3 in Melbourne will be an indicator of who's where I expect.

tommunster10

1,128 posts

92 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
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VolvoT5 said:
hairyben said:
My opinion on pastor was that he was properly naturally quick, but struggled to recognise when he was on the limit. His win owes at least a little to the jackpot comedy clown car tyres of that time.
I agree he was certainly fast. The issue is he was on the limit the whole time. The best drivers seem to be able to be on the limit when it is absolutely necessary but have the capacity to operate consistently at 9/10 the rest of the time.
And that comes down to the car. In the best cars you don't need to be 110% and flirting with the limits. Only thing that got Nico and Lewis to the limits was pushing themselves to beat each other.
Having to over drive a car is a sure fire way to the gravel. Lewis was a lot more exciting to watch IMO when he wasn't in the best car by a mile.

Vocal Minority

8,582 posts

153 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
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Today has the distinct aire that no one can be arsed really - with the track not staying wet for long enough to get meaningful tyre data, and the wet disrupting a sensible dry program

tommunster10

1,128 posts

92 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
quotequote all
Vocal Minority said:
I'm sorry to keep banging on about this. But I think everyone decided Mercedes were a mile out in front before a wheel was turned, and evidence is just being moulded around this conviction instead of influencing it
OK have a friendly bet then. £10 to charity of choice that I think Merc will be 1-2 come Melbourne and making the rest look like Class B cars...again.

Vocal Minority

8,582 posts

153 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
quotequote all
You're on.

I will settle for a Mercedes 1-2 as that is easy to define.

We can then have a friendly debate about what constitutes a class B car!

Crafty_

13,297 posts

201 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
quotequote all
RobGT81 said:
Crafty_ said:
I wonder if Ferrari have/are working on that instead of outright speed

When everyone is on the same tyres, the Ferraris look quicker than the Mercs. Are people ignoring the timing screens?
A timing screen at a test is hardly a definitive answer on who has the best car.

We have no idea how much engine's are turned up, how hard they are pushing, what out they do/don't have on cars and so on, a car doesn't ev3n need to be legal at these tests.

When I said 'recently' I meant the last couple of years. They've looked good in tests and when conditions have suited them but quite average otherwise. Last year they were some way off the red bulls at times.

My point was I wonder if they've worked on widening the window of the cars ability this year.

London424

12,829 posts

176 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
quotequote all
Vocal Minority said:
I'm sorry to keep banging on about this. But I think everyone decided Mercedes were a mile out in front before a wheel was turned, and evidence is just being moulded around this conviction instead of influencing it
I think most are making the assumption based on the fact that Merc typically run with 70-80% fuel loads (as they did at testing last year).

Ferrari have historically run lighter loads and set what look like fast times that don't translate.

Merc are running this week with the engine turned down.

kambites

67,593 posts

222 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
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fuelracer496 said:
RobGT81 said:
When everyone is on the same tyres, the Ferraris look quicker than the Mercs. Are people ignoring the timing screens?
The rule of thumb is that when Ferrari looks strong, it's down to low fuel or softer compound tyres, or Merc drivers taking it steady. When Mercedes put in a strong lap, it's deemed to not be because of low fuel or softer tyres. The Beeb in particular take this view, as if it's not physically possible for a team to have caught up to Mercedes.
To be fair, there's strong historical evidence for this view point.

If I'm remembering correctly, Ferrari were timing ahead of Mercedes this time last year and indeed the year before. In neither case were they able to mount a serious challenge for the constructor's championship or even win a significant number of races.

I'd love to be proven wrong, but in terms of times everything we've seen so far this year has been the same as the last couple of years.

Vocal Minority

8,582 posts

153 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
quotequote all
In past years I would agree. But Ferrari are usually grandstanding and doing low fuel runs on soft tyres, as well as talking the car up. This year they appear to be doing middling length stints on middling tyres.

The only thing that is similar to last year are the superficial headlines

As such, I think they are playing the same game as Mercedes. I'm not saying they are ahead.

I am saying I think Ferrari are right up there with them.

kambites

67,593 posts

222 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
quotequote all
We'll see in Melbourne, I guess.

I hope you're right but personally I'd be surprised if Ferrari are within a quarter of a second a lap of Mercedes over the course of a race.

FourWheelDrift

88,555 posts

285 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
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Vandoorne going quicker.



tommunster10

1,128 posts

92 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
quotequote all
Vocal Minority said:
You're on.

I will settle for a Mercedes 1-2 as that is easy to define.

We can then have a friendly debate about what constitutes a class B car!
The bet is £10 I give to charity if another car gets on front row, or if it is Merc 1-2 you give £10 to charity.
You seem to be saying you don't think Merc will be the car to beat again.

FourWheelDrift

88,555 posts

285 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
quotequote all
FourWheelDrift said:
Vandoorne going quicker.

although when supersub Giovinazzi goes 0.1s quicker on the same ultrasofts using a 2016 Ferrari engined Sauber, there is still speed to be found.



Palmer going well on softs now, matching Verstappen.

Derek Smith

45,703 posts

249 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
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PhillipM said:
And Ferrari have a bit of a history of being fast in testing...

Edited by PhillipM on Thursday 2nd March 13:46
The words year, understatement and of spring to mind.


Vocal Minority

8,582 posts

153 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
quotequote all
tommunster10 said:
Vocal Minority said:
You're on.

I will settle for a Mercedes 1-2 as that is easy to define.

We can then have a friendly debate about what constitutes a class B car!
The bet is £10 I give to charity if another car gets on front row, or if it is Merc 1-2 you give £10 to charity.
You seem to be saying you don't think Merc will be the car to beat again.
Oh, so are we talking qualifying? I thought race.

Yeah, go on, deal.

I'm sticking to my guns on this.

I am saying I think the Mercedes and Ferrari will be on a par. I expect neither to have a definitive advantage

Edited by Vocal Minority on Thursday 2nd March 18:32

HustleRussell

24,724 posts

161 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
quotequote all
Vocal Minority said:
I am saying I think the Mercedes and Ferrari will be on a par. I expect neither to have a definitive advantage
I wish I could believe.

Crafty_

13,297 posts

201 months

Thursday 2nd March 2017
quotequote all
I still think Red Bull are the dark horse, I don't think they've shown anything like their true speed and will be very surprised if (on the whole) they aren't closer to merc this year than they were last year.

Ferrari - who knows, maybe they'll get it right, but they struggled badly last year and I'm not sure how effective the design team are after Allison left.

I think the midfield (Renault, FI, Williams, STR) is going to be a good battle this year.