The Official 2018 F1 Silly Season *Contains Speculation*

[JS1500]

Maybe not for 2018 but perhaps for 2019...

Vettel to Merc, they've wanted him for years. They'll take a solid 2nd driver (Bottas, Wehrlein, Ocon...)
Verstappen to Ferrari.
Lewis to Ferrari, he wants it!
Kubica back at Renault, everyone wants this (except Palmer)!

Not sure where this leaves Alonso, other than still at McLaren (I reckon Merc power despite what they say)... If with Merc or Ferrari (Alfa) power he'll be ok there. If not, he'll retire which would be a shame.

Sainz, not sure. I think with the big boys moving around so much in the next couple of years he'll have to take what's left, so will Grosjean, Hulk etc.

Kimi gone.

Danny Ric to stay at Red Bull.

Can anyone see...
Merc: VET & BOT
Fer: HAM & VES
Ren: HUL & KUB
RBR: RIC & SAI
McL: ALO & GRO
?

[andburg]

Alonso and grosbeak at mclaren?!? Never!!

Be more moaning than a thread on mumsnet

[JS1500]

^^^ Not if the car works!

[rubystone]

I'm not so sure that Mercedes have wanted Vettel for years. He's close to accepting a 3 year deal, with Kimi on a one year extension being a contingency on that deal happening.

I fully expect Mercedes to exercise the option on Bottas for 2018 in the next couple of months and for Hamilton to sign an extension at the end of the year to 2020.

Red Bull have run a very big flag up the pole that Verstappen will cost a lot of money to buy out of his contract. If both Hamilton and Vettel sign their extensions, both will want their current team mates to re-sign too to block Verstappen moving to either team. If Ferrari or Mercedes management want to hold their star drivers' feet to the fire they will do nothing to dispel the Verstappen rumours and it will be interesting to see what emerges on this front.

[confucuis]

To be honest I don't think Hamilton will ever end up at Ferrari. I think that he and Ferrari would fall out spectaculary if they tried to order him around as they are wont to do.

[Dr Z]

I think Alonso should stay with McLaren, but I don't see McLaren winning races (if at all) before 2019/2020. He seems to want to win races yesterday, but what other options does he have? A regulation reset is coming with the power plants for 2021 and who knows if the established order will receive a shakeup then?

Mercedes seems to want to keep Hamilton/Bottas

It also seems that Ferrari are wanting to keep the Vettel/Raikkonen combo going.

I don't see any others in the immediate future fighting for titles.

I have been tracking performance leaps of the teams at the sharp end and those in the midfield from 2014 when the regulations changed every year till now. This is where some of the teams are behind Mercedes in terms of raw qualifying pace:

Track	RBR	McLaren	Ferrari	Renault	Williams	Force India	Haas
Melbourne	1.64%	3.87%	0.41%	3.36%	2.75%	3.46%	2.33%
Sakhir	0.87%	3.57%	0.54%	1.19%	1.45%	3.18%	2.20%
Shanghai	1.46%	2.85%	0.20%	2.03%	1.96%	2.16%	2.64%
Sochi	1.70%	3.18%	-0.10%	2.09%	1.85%	2.15%	2.84%
Barcelona	0.70%	2.34%	0.06%	2.76%	2.55%	2.37%	2.68%
Monte Carlo	0.38%	1.40%	-0.06%	1.91%	2.13%	1.51%	1.34%
Montreal	1.30%	3.00%	0.46%	2.47%	1.92%	2.14%	3.15%
Spielberg	0.99%	2.06%	0.07%	2.05%	3.43%	1.81%	1.64%
Silverstone	1.74%	3.15%	0.63%	2.54%	-	2.59%	3.29%
Average	1.20%	2.83%	0.34%	2.27%	2.26%	2.37%	2.46%

I have used this to predict some qualifying times for some of the teams at the top this year with good results. Since 2014, Ferrari are the only team at the sharp end that have had big jumps in performance over every winter (RB in 2016 came close). This year they are 'only' an average of 0.34% behind Mercedes (in the tracks they didn't take pole). This is in very rarefied area, and this gap can be realistically closed if the team has a good winter. Getting to within 0.5% of a top team is the big struggle. Especially one that has enjoyed unprecedented levels of dominance.

At the sharp end, if Mercedes have 0.5% or more performance advantage, they will be able to keep that gap since they also bring performance to their car that keeps the competitors that one step behind. They've been doing this since 2014, about average. This is the problem for RB and for Max & Daniel. Even if RB & Renault at Viry have a mega winter this year, they may be within 0.3-0.5% of Mercedes/Ferrari in 2018. Okay, they may be able to fight for victories then, but will they be able to out develop the might of Mercedes/Ferrari in-season? You have to say that it should be possible. So, best option for Daniel and Max is to stay put. However, if the power plant reliability is anything like this year, one more year will be gone and I'm sure Max will be out looking then.

Coming back to Alonso. It's clear that Honda is holding back McLaren considerably. Say about 70% of the current deficit is Honda which is quite generous to McLaren (IMO), we are still looking at a 1% deficit...and this is pure qualifying pace. Provided Honda do a frankly unprecedented job over this winter (unlikely), and for McLaren to make a step comparable to that of Ferrari (2014-2015) with the car to come to within 0.5% of the top teams in 2018.

Still, it doesn't guarantee a realistic WDC campaign for Alonso (reliability etc). Hence, my original statement that 2019/2020 is the earliest Alonso can expect to fight for his 3rd title if he stays with McLaren (he'd be 38 then!). The other option is Mercedes or Ferrari. Renault is another one, but it seems they are evaluating Kubica now. Even Renault would be in the same boat as McLaren but arguably worse as more of the current gap is chassis related than McLaren.

It would seem that having a Mercedes or Ferrari powering McLaren would immediately wipe away the Honda-related deficit of McLaren and put them on a more level footing with the likes of RB/Ferrari. Then it would be about the team's ability to develop in-season and during the winter. I can see why Mercedes or Ferrari wouldn't want to give McLaren such a luxury.

If past form is anything, Alonso will sign for Renault while McLaren will be fighting for the WDC in 2018/2019. Sorry!

Edited by Dr Z on Wednesday 19th July 14:41

[99dndd]

My guesses:

Mercedes: Hamilton Bottas
Ferrari: Vettel Saintz
RBR: Ricciardo Verstappen
Force: Perez Ocon
Williams: Grosjean Stroll
Renault: Hulkenberg Palmer
McLaren (with a '17 Mercedes engine): Vandoorn Wehrlein
Torro Rosso: Kvyat Gastly
Haas: Magnussen LeClerc
Sauber: Ericsson + the highest bidder

Porsche LMP1: Alonso
Retirement: Massa Raikkonen

[SmoothCriminal]

Bleh another year of Roman crying and bleating on the radio.

Both him and kmag confirmed for 2018

[Vaud]

I have a hunch that Porsche will be in sooner rather than later, with a rebadged engine for a few years until the next cycle.

Force India or Torro Rosso as the acquisition. Sauber would be nice but dearth of skills in Switzerland.

[kambites]

Vaud said:

I have a hunch that Porsche will be in sooner rather than later, with a rebadged engine for a few years until the next cycle.

I don't think even VAG have much idea when/if they'll join F1.

[Vaud]

kambites said:

Vaud said:

I have a hunch that Porsche will be in sooner rather than later, with a rebadged engine for a few years until the next cycle.

I don't think even VAG have much idea when/if they'll join F1.

Well they have just quite LMP1 to join Formula E

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/130956...

It was suggested to me that they will join, it is the "when" that is in question and more linked to the certainty of the future engine spec.

[ajprice]

Sauber getting Ferrari engines next year, so chances are that Charles LeClerc will be with them. Kaltenborn quit because the new management was favouring Ericsson over Wehrlein. So LeClerc and Ericsson at Sauber next year, where does Wehrlein go (do Mercedes still think he's the next big thing to place him in another Mercedes engine team?)

[andburg]

If no kubica then do we see icon move to Renault and wehrlein at force <insert random word>

[rubystone]

Vaud said:

I have a hunch that Porsche will be in sooner rather than later, with a rebadged engine for a few years until the next cycle.

Force India or Torro Rosso as the acquisition. Sauber would be nice but dearth of skills in Switzerland.

Do you mean between now and 2020?

[rubystone]

ajprice said:

Sauber getting Ferrari engines next year, so chances are that Charles LeClerc will be with them. Kaltenborn quit because the new management was favouring Ericsson over Wehrlein. So LeClerc and Ericsson at Sauber next year, where does Wehrlein go (do Mercedes still think he's the next big thing to place him in another Mercedes engine team?)

If Mercedes pension off the older DTM drivers like DiResta, I can see Wehrlein given a Formula E drive. What that means for 2018 I don't know.

[Vaud]

rubystone said:

Do you mean between now and 2020?

Yes. But not with a Porsche built engine at first.

[rubystone]

Vaud said:

Yes. But not with a Porsche built engine at first.

So they would badge a Mercedes engine? Have Porsche ever badged anyone else's engine in the past? The reverse is certainly true of the TAG lump...

[ajprice]

rubystone said:

So they would badge a Mercedes engine? Have Porsche ever badged anyone else's engine in the past? The reverse is certainly true of the TAG lump...

Within F1 or motorsport? I don't know. Porsche badges did find their way into the mk1 SEAT Ibiza though

[Z3MCJez]

ajprice said:

Sauber getting Ferrari engines next year, so chances are that Charles LeClerc will be with them. Kaltenborn quit because the new management was favouring Ericsson over Wehrlein. So LeClerc and Ericsson at Sauber next year, where does Wehrlein go (do Mercedes still think he's the next big thing to place him in another Mercedes engine team?)

No. Wehrlein has shown this year that he's not going to be the next Lewis Hamilton. I'm not sure that Merc will try and find him another spot in F1. Isn't Ocon connected to Mercedes too. He's made a better job of it than Wehrlein. I'm sure that Mercedes will be happy for him to get another year at FI. If he can start beating Perez (who I rate quite highly) then he could get a promotion in the big shake up in time for 2019. I'd like to see Sainz move into a car where he can compete. But I fear he's going to have another year at TR, during which time he'll have to dominate Gasly to maybe get something for 2019 if there is movement. Perhaps in the senior team if Verstappen goes to Ferrari as Vettel goes to Mercedes.

Jez

[Jinba Ittai]

I've been super impressed with Ocon. His first full season and he just seems to have, as well as being super quick, that undefinable something the same as Verstappen has; he just seems extremely comfortable in the F1 environment. Compare to the likes of Palmer, or Stroll, who just seem a bit 'rabbit caught in the headlights' by what is going on around them.

I think Mercedes give Bottas a two year contract, Ocon two years at Force India, and then give him the Mercedes seat in 2020 alongside god knows who.......

ETA - the big loser in all this could be Wehrlein. Looks like Leclerc may go to Sauber alongside Erricson next year, so there may be no seat left for him. Possibly could go to Force India alongside Ocon if Perez ends up replacing Raikkonen. Other than that the only space that could open up is if Alonso leaves McLaren....