The Official 2018 F1 Silly Season *Contains Speculation*

[jamiebae]

Z3MCJez said:

No. Wehrlein has shown this year that he's not going to be the next Lewis Hamilton. I'm not sure that Merc will try and find him another spot in F1. Isn't Ocon connected to Mercedes too. He's made a better job of it than Wehrlein. I'm sure that Mercedes will be happy for him to get another year at FI. If he can start beating Perez (who I rate quite highly) then he could get a promotion in the big shake up in time for 2019. I'd like to see Sainz move into a car where he can compete. But I fear he's going to have another year at TR, during which time he'll have to dominate Gasly to maybe get something for 2019 if there is movement. Perhaps in the senior team if Verstappen goes to Ferrari as Vettel goes to Mercedes.

Jez

I'm pretty sure Kvyat is confirmed at TR for 2018 already, so unless someone else buys out Sainz they will be running the same lineup as this season.

I guess at the end of the year Wehrlein is done, Ocon looks like Mercedes next big thing now and although Pascal has done a decent job of beating his teammate he hasn't done it to the extent that shows he's a future world champion. Gio isn't doing himself any favours with the amount of carbon he's destroyed when he's been allowed in an F1 car so I guess Leclerc will get the Sauber seat alongside Ericsson.

I guess at the top of the grid Kimi will have to go as he seems to have lost the support of the top management at Ferrari, but will Ferrari pay Red Bull to buy out Sainz, or take Perez for free as well as the Mexican sponsorship cash he brings as a shot to nothing - if he shines then great, if not then maybe Leclerc or even Verstappen will be available for 2019/20.

[rubystone]

jamiebae said:

I'm pretty sure Kvyat is confirmed at TR for 2018 already, so unless someone else buys out Sainz they will be running the same lineup as this season.

I guess at the end of the year Wehrlein is done, Ocon looks like Mercedes next big thing now and although Pascal has done a decent job of beating his teammate he hasn't done it to the extent that shows he's a future world champion. Gio isn't doing himself any favours with the amount of carbon he's destroyed when he's been allowed in an F1 car so I guess Leclerc will get the Sauber seat alongside Ericsson.

I guess at the top of the grid Kimi will have to go as he seems to have lost the support of the top management at Ferrari, but will Ferrari pay Red Bull to buy out Sainz, or take Perez for free as well as the Mexican sponsorship cash he brings as a shot to nothing - if he shines then great, if not then maybe Leclerc or even Verstappen will be available for 2019/20.

I think this is a good prediction of what will happen. If Perez comes essentially for free, it would seem a no brainer for Ferrari. But if they want to retain Vettel I think he will dictate his own terms, including the retention of Kimi.

I think that Mercedes may move Wehrlein to Formula E and it seems that Ocon is pretty much a shoe-in for a second year at Force India. There is no doubt that before ditching the Honda deal, Vasseur will have negotiated hard with Ferrari for a 2018 engine deal with their choice of driver alongside Ericsson. Given Gio's crash record, I'd say LeClerc has his bum parked in that seat right now.

[lee_fr200]

I think we could see vettel at Mercedes with Lewis if they get rid of Kimi as he's stated that, to keep him he wants Kimi by his side, then would alonso go back to Ferrari and bottas too

Would Kimi then retire or end up at mclaren jb has said even though he's got a contract for next year he's doubtful of racing in F1 again but would mclaren hold him to contract if they can't easily get anyone to drive it!

I suppose next year all depends on vettel and Kimi

[HTP99]

lee_fr200 said:

I think we could see vettel at Mercedes with Lewis

That will never happen, as long as I have a hole in my arse.

Mercedes, or any team for that matter, do not need 2 top tier drivers taking points off each other and causing ructions within the team and anyway, Vettel won't want to team up with Hamilton, I'm sure Hamilton will relish it, however Vettel won't want it.

[hairyben]

jamiebae said:

I guess at the top of the grid Kimi will have to go as he seems to have lost the support of the top management at Ferrari, but will Ferrari pay Red Bull to buy out Sainz, or take Perez for free as well as the Mexican sponsorship cash he brings as a shot to nothing - if he shines then great, if not then maybe Leclerc or even Verstappen will be available for 2019/20.

Would any of them slot into the no.2 driver role demanded by vettel?

[Vaud]

hairyben said:

Would any of them slot into the no.2 driver role demanded by vettel?

How do you know what is demanded by Vettel?

[rubystone]

lee_fr200 said:

I think we could see vettel at Mercedes with Lewis if they get rid of Kimi as he's stated that, to keep him he wants Kimi by his side, then would alonso go back to Ferrari and bottas too

Would Kimi then retire or end up at mclaren jb has said even though he's got a contract for next year he's doubtful of racing in F1 again but would mclaren hold him to contract if they can't easily get anyone to drive it!

I suppose next year all depends on vettel and Kimi

Zero chance of Vettel and Hamilton together. Swapping places? Not until 2021 I'd say. Alonso won't end up back at Ferrari either. It's looking more likely he won't move to Renault either for 2018.

[ZX10R NIN]

HTP99 said:

That will never happen, as long as I have a hole in my arse.

Mercedes, or any team for that matter, do not need 2 top tier drivers taking points off each other and causing ructions within the team and anyway, Vettel won't want to team up with Hamilton, I'm sure Hamilton will relish it, however Vettel won't want it.

LH wouldn't want it either, neither wanted Max as a team mate so I can imagine they didn't want each other either.

I think Kimi will go & the reason for this will be that Ferrari want Max/Carlos, so they take Perez because they'll struggle to get CS/MV in 2019 but all bets are off at which point they have their established number 2 & then can go out aggressively target either of the above they won't want to be changing two drivers in 2019.

[jamiebae]

Interesting comment from Toto Wolff today, that based on Di Resta's performance in qualifying if Mercedes needed a reserve driver they'd probably use him (as opposed to Wehrlein, their official reserve). Yes, it was a bit of a throwaway comment but it does suggest he could do just as good a job as Pascal for the team which supports the speculation that Ocon is now the focus of Mercedes young driver programme.

[Z3MCJez]

Vettel has stated that he wants Raikkonen. But I think he might settle for Perez. I think Perez will take that role even if he is unofficial number 2. A bit like Bottas did at the start of the year.

I think Ocon has done enough that FI will be comfortable with him as number 1. They passed on Wehrlein once. They will do so again. I'm not sure who they will take though. I agree that Bottas gets 2018/19. Ocon will be lined up if they can't keep Hamilton. Red Bull swap neither. Sainz stays at TR and hopes for something at the end of 2018.

Agree that LeClerk is in at Sauber. I'm not sure why Ericsson keeps his seat though. Is he bringing that much money?

Di Resta has put his name back in the frame today. Somewhat unbelievably. Dour when things go badly. Doesn't bring money. Won't be WC. But experienced and can handle the car. My bet is that he'd have done as well as Massa this year.

Alonso is going to stay at McL or leave F1. I think he should be chasing the Renault seat. That car is looking better each weekend and there's a chance it could compete next year. And ultimately Ron was right - you need to be in the first choice team for the engines. If Renault are competing it's *BAD* news for Red Bull.

Jez

[hairyben]

Z3MCJez said:

Vettel has stated that he wants Raikkonen. But I think he might settle for Perez. I think Perez will take that role even if he is unofficial number 2. A bit like Bottas did at the start of the year.

Thats a pretty poor analogy. Bottas went to a team that have gone the parity route to a fault, and alongside a driver who to a fault does his talking on track. Any number 2 status flung about was an assumption on bottas ability.

The absolute very opposite of joining vettel at fez...

[jamiebae]

Z3MCJez said:

Agree that LeClerk is in at Sauber. I'm not sure why Ericsson keeps his seat though. Is he bringing that much money?
Jez

Ericsson's backers effectively own the team. Longbow Finance is a consortium with much of the cash coming from the guys (or guy, actually) funding his career.

I do also wonder if Kvyat's continued presence at STR is due to the team being for sale and maybe targeting Russian buyers?

[Vaud]

jamiebae said:

I do also wonder if Kvyat's continued presence at STR is due to the team being for sale and maybe targeting Russian buyers?

I remember a comment that said - who is next in the RB program? Their view was that there isn't an obvious candidate.

[Allyc85]

Vaud said:

I remember a comment that said - who is next in the RB program? Their view was that there isn't an obvious candidate.

Gasly must be worth a go? Can't do any worse!

[jamiebae]

Vaud said:

I remember a comment that said - who is next in the RB program? Their view was that there isn't an obvious candidate.

Gasly won GP2 pretty comfortably and has a good record, I'm not sure how much more he could have done to show he's ready. I think there's maybe an element that they've spent a lot of cash taking him this far, and don't want him to be another Buemi who leaves and wins titles elsewhere.

[thegreenhell]

I think the thing possibly keeping Kvyat in the seat at the moment is the uncertainty over Sainz's future position. Sainz in known to want out if he can find someone to buy his contract out (Renault, Ferrari?), so in that instance they have Gasly as a replacement, but they don't have a second lined up to replace Kvyat. I think if they can be sure to keep Sainz for next year then Gasly will replace Kvyat.

[VolvoT5]

Z3MCJez said:

Vettel has stated that he wants Raikkonen. But I think he might settle for Perez. I think Perez will take that role even if he is unofficial number 2. A bit like Bottas did at the start of the year.

Sky Sports Italy are apparently reporting that Vettel & Raikkonen have been retained and the official announcement will be done at the Monza race weekend.

Edited by VolvoT5 on Saturday 29th July 20:52

[Z3MCJez]

hairyben said:

Thats a pretty poor analogy. Bottas went to a team that have gone the parity route to a fault, and alongside a driver who to a fault does his talking on track. Any number 2 status flung about was an assumption on bottas ability.

The absolute very opposite of joining vettel at fez...

Hamilton says that a lot. But I don't quite believe it. I believe he thinks he can beat any team mate. But the only reason to welcome the best driver in the world to be your team mate is that you know you're in equal machinery.

If you think you have the best machinery, you want someone nice (and quick to help develop the car) next to you. He thinks Bottas is that at the moment, although watch that relationship worsen if Bottas starts beating him regularly. See Nico.

Ferrari wouldn't take Perez as an outright number 2. But Vettel would view him as such. I haven't seen Ferrari actively favour Vettel. He's in front because he's in front.

I don't view the situation as very different, but if we were all the same it would be a very dull place.

Jez

[Z3MCJez]

jamiebae said:

Ericsson's backers effectively own the team. Longbow Finance is a consortium with much of the cash coming from the guys (or guy, actually) funding his career.

I do also wonder if Kvyat's continued presence at STR is due to the team being for sale and maybe targeting Russian buyers?

I didn't know that re: Ericsson. But it clarifies a lot of things! Where do you find these guys? With a bit more funding I could have been in F1!

Jez

[Vaud]

OK, my theory in progress:

Ferrari
Sauber -(with Ferrari engine branded as Maserati)
McLaren - (with Ferrari engine branded as Alfa Romeo)
HaaS - Ferrari