2018 Pre-Season Thread
Discussion
rdjohn said:
Bradgate said:
Ted Kravitz is reporting that Honda are putting a brand new engine in the Toro Rosso every night, which may explain their apparent reliability. The other teams are re-using their engines.
Just to finally put this one to bed.https://www.motorsportweek.com/news/id/17251
Perhaps Honda have finally entered the end phase of their development. I really hope that some positive results come from the TR partnership.
jsf said:
Sometimes when you hit a bad patch technically, it helps to bring in completely new thinking from outside to see the obvious things you just aren't seeing yourself. I believe Honda have finally accepted some outside help and TR will come to the engineering with a fresh set of eyes too, that's got to be helping.
If you've seen the Grand Prix Driver series on Amazon, it comes across that at McLaren there were Honda people, and McLaren people, and very little of a McLaren Honda team. There's also the story of McLaren dictating the engine spec to Honda that it must be such a size because of the McLaren 'size zero' chassis and aero. If Toro Rosso and Honda talk to each other and cross over more than McLaren and Honda did, they should be ok this year.ajprice said:
If you've seen the Grand Prix Driver series on Amazon, it comes across that at McLaren there were Honda people, and McLaren people, and very little of a McLaren Honda team. There's also the story of McLaren dictating the engine spec to Honda that it must be such a size because of the McLaren 'size zero' chassis and aero. If Toro Rosso and Honda talk to each other and cross over more than McLaren and Honda did, they should be ok this year.
I did see it and that is normal practice in terms of 2 teams of people.What came across to me was the hard work Honda were at releasing info and giving the go ahead for changes, it wasn't integrated enough in that respect. The McLaren engineer was almost begging to get the OK to redesign the fastener for the engine to gearbox studs. That kind of lack of integration frustrates the hell out of people and slows the process down.
jsf said:
ajprice said:
If you've seen the Grand Prix Driver series on Amazon, it comes across that at McLaren there were Honda people, and McLaren people, and very little of a McLaren Honda team. There's also the story of McLaren dictating the engine spec to Honda that it must be such a size because of the McLaren 'size zero' chassis and aero. If Toro Rosso and Honda talk to each other and cross over more than McLaren and Honda did, they should be ok this year.
I did see it and that is normal practice in terms of 2 teams of people.What came across to me was the hard work Honda were at releasing info and giving the go ahead for changes, it wasn't integrated enough in that respect. The McLaren engineer was almost begging to get the OK to redesign the fastener for the engine to gearbox studs. That kind of lack of integration frustrates the hell out of people and slows the process down.
Someone who I met who worked for TTE said that they were hobbled because they could not accept that something was wrong until their Japanese paymasters fully understood why something was wrong. Consequently they were analysing and writing reports that had to be approved and authorised, rather than racing.
My guess is that successful teams in F1 tests lots of different things that don’t work and just move on to quickly find something else that does.
My guess is that successful teams in F1 tests lots of different things that don’t work and just move on to quickly find something else that does.
rdjohn said:
Someone who I met who worked for TTE said that they were hobbled because they could not accept that something was wrong until their Japanese paymasters fully understood why something was wrong. Consequently they were analysing and writing reports that had to be approved and authorised, rather than racing.
My guess is that successful teams in F1 tests lots of different things that don’t work and just move on to quickly find something else that does.
Decision making needs to go through a hierarchy, snap decisions cannot be made by the man on the front line, that's part of the problem and also Japanese companies are very reluctant to accept outside help and to admit that there is a problem.My guess is that successful teams in F1 tests lots of different things that don’t work and just move on to quickly find something else that does.
Gaz. said:
May as well give Hamilton the trophy now, if that's accurate.thegreenhell said:
May as well give Hamilton the trophy now, if that's accurate.
I would not take too much from that rubbish.Take this for instance.
Teammate prediction
Red Bull
Verstappen 73%
Ricciardo 27%
Renault
Sainz 90%
Hulk 10%
McLaren
Alonso 54%
Vandoorne 46%
Whoever wrote this crap is on drugs.
Edited by anonymous-user on Sunday 11th March 19:14
Gad-Westy said:
jsf said:
So long as no accidents intervene, Alonso will be on the podium in Australia.
I admire your optimism and hope you're right but...Anyways, more pre season news-Newey out of Red Bull F1?
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.marca.com/en/mo...
ELUSIVEJIM said:
I would not take too much from that rubbish.
Take this for instance.
Teammate prediction
Red Bull
Verstappen 73%
Ricciardo 27%
Renault
Sainz 90%
Hulk 10%
McLaren
Alonso 54%
Vandoorne 46%
Whoever wrote this crap is on drugs.
Yet in each one of those cases, he provides caveats and reasons to explain the seemingly odd results.Take this for instance.
Teammate prediction
Red Bull
Verstappen 73%
Ricciardo 27%
Renault
Sainz 90%
Hulk 10%
McLaren
Alonso 54%
Vandoorne 46%
Whoever wrote this crap is on drugs.
Edited by ELUSIVEJIM on Sunday 11th March 19:14
jsf said:
rdjohn said:
OK then, I am stunned that this informative piece from DrZ on Thursday did not provoke more discussion. It is perhaps the most relevant thing that happened during 7-days of testing.
Perhaps the graphic is too complex because it show Botas at the bottom
I'm colour blind so it's far too difficult for me to decipher. Perhaps the graphic is too complex because it show Botas at the bottom
Hope this works.
Did some polynomial fitting to show the general trend (sorry, did that in colour to make the graph less busy).
Bottas, Hamilton & Verstappen did three stints on medium tyres.
Hulkenberg did two stints on medium, then a short stint on softs and ending the sim on medium.
Vandoorne did a short 1st stint on super softs, with a fairly long middle stint on softs, and ended on mediums.
Vettel and Raikkonen did a similar short 1st stint on super softs, then did two stints on mediums.
From the trends, it can be seen clearly what I indicated in the previous post for the Ferrari and RB race sims, in the 3rd stint where the pace stabilises. It's either sand bagging or turning everything down and driving to a delta as it so often happens in the final stints of races. Many are looking at the pace difference here and are going crazy over it.
Vettel couldn't help himself though, he did a pretty quick lap at the end to show the pace he had in hand. The most revealing stint is the middle one, where the pace of Merc/Ferrari/RB are quite close together with the Merc maybe having an advantage of around 0.2-0.3s/lap. However, this is close enough that if you can outqualify the Merc, you can beat it in the race. My conclusion for this season therefore is, it will come down to pure 1-lap pace. Lack of big qualifying modes may hurt RB.
Re: McLaren, I don't have the full data, but Alonso did a race sim on the final day which seemed quicker than Vandoorne in the 1st/2nd stints. It was interrupted at some point due to some issue. I think the medium tyre is the only one that was good for this track and all other tyres have to be managed at heavy fuel loads (which complicates comparisons).
Hulk got away with it doing the soft stint towards the end, I would say McLaren's pace was on a par with that; given Vandoorne ran into big deg with pushing hard on the super softs in the 1st stint and the softs weren't managed properly with the deg & long middle stint. Seemed happier on the medium, hence showing a steep drop in lap times towards the end.
Other than that, a lot could change depending on how conservative different players were and whether their car is fully race 1 spec or test spec.
A few thoughts, not sure if they are relevant.
Last year the race lap time was run much closer to 90s. Top teams ran it as a 1-stop strategy.
This year, it is likely to be a two-stop because of the softer compounds now available, so using 3 Medium compounds is not a real race simulation, but Mercedes have clearly worked their tyres as hard as durability and fuel consumption allowed, but still managed to maintain sub 83s laps. They might not do this in the race in May as they could just fit another if they trashed a PU in testing, but they needed to,understand its durability.
It’s is possible that the Mercedes pace may not have been possible for Ferrari and RB fuel consumption rate, so they have had to run a slower delta just to get to the end. Renault just cut short the final stint.
I suspect that the Mercedes strategy will be more conservative during a real race, but it does look like they have a significant margin in hand unless the others have something very special up their sleeves. Renault are already anticipating using additional PUs.
Last year the race lap time was run much closer to 90s. Top teams ran it as a 1-stop strategy.
This year, it is likely to be a two-stop because of the softer compounds now available, so using 3 Medium compounds is not a real race simulation, but Mercedes have clearly worked their tyres as hard as durability and fuel consumption allowed, but still managed to maintain sub 83s laps. They might not do this in the race in May as they could just fit another if they trashed a PU in testing, but they needed to,understand its durability.
It’s is possible that the Mercedes pace may not have been possible for Ferrari and RB fuel consumption rate, so they have had to run a slower delta just to get to the end. Renault just cut short the final stint.
I suspect that the Mercedes strategy will be more conservative during a real race, but it does look like they have a significant margin in hand unless the others have something very special up their sleeves. Renault are already anticipating using additional PUs.
rdjohn said:
A few thoughts, not sure if they are relevant.
Last year the race lap time was run much closer to 90s. Top teams ran it as a 1-stop strategy.
This year, it is likely to be a two-stop because of the softer compounds now available, so using 3 Medium compounds is not a real race simulation, but Mercedes have clearly worked their tyres as hard as durability and fuel consumption allowed, but still managed to maintain sub 83s laps. They might not do this in the race in May as they could just fit another if they trashed a PU in testing, but they needed to,understand its durability.
It’s is possible that the Mercedes pace may not have been possible for Ferrari and RB fuel consumption rate, so they have had to run a slower delta just to get to the end. Renault just cut short the final stint.
I suspect that the Mercedes strategy will be more conservative during a real race, but it does look like they have a significant margin in hand unless the others have something very special up their sleeves. Renault are already anticipating using additional PUs.
If they've cracked their tyre degradation then that's the WCC and, if Bottas is kept in check, the WDC as well.Last year the race lap time was run much closer to 90s. Top teams ran it as a 1-stop strategy.
This year, it is likely to be a two-stop because of the softer compounds now available, so using 3 Medium compounds is not a real race simulation, but Mercedes have clearly worked their tyres as hard as durability and fuel consumption allowed, but still managed to maintain sub 83s laps. They might not do this in the race in May as they could just fit another if they trashed a PU in testing, but they needed to,understand its durability.
It’s is possible that the Mercedes pace may not have been possible for Ferrari and RB fuel consumption rate, so they have had to run a slower delta just to get to the end. Renault just cut short the final stint.
I suspect that the Mercedes strategy will be more conservative during a real race, but it does look like they have a significant margin in hand unless the others have something very special up their sleeves. Renault are already anticipating using additional PUs.
Derek Smith said:
If they've cracked their tyre degradation then that's the WCC and, if Bottas is kept in check, the WDC as well.
I think the softer and more varied compounds will do that for them. The Pirelli target is for every race to be a two-stopper, so the tyres can be worked harder for shorter stints, which will consume more fuel.At the moment we can see that Honda’s reliability has improved dramatically, we have yet to learn if their fuel consumption has made a similar leap. Renault have said they have looked to maintain power and improve durability.
Meanwhile Mercedes have just been working on peak power of 1000bhp and even more durability. I still believe that the 3-PU rule will ultimately determine the outcome of the championships, with only Ferrari and Mercedes in the race, at certain circuits.
rdjohn said:
I think the softer and more varied compounds will do that for them. The Pirelli target is for every race to be a two-stopper, so the tyres can be worked harder for shorter stints, which will consume more fuel.
At the moment we can see that Honda’s reliability has improved dramatically, we have yet to learn if their fuel consumption has made a similar leap. Renault have said they have looked to maintain power and improve durability.
Meanwhile Mercedes have just been working on peak power of 1000bhp and even more durability. I still believe that the 3-PU rule will ultimately determine the outcome of the championships, with only Ferrari and Mercedes in the race, at certain circuits.
I have to agree this years championship is definitely going to come down to reliability, looking at last year I don't think Mercedes had any engine grid penalties and still plenty quick enough. It really is theirs to lose At the moment we can see that Honda’s reliability has improved dramatically, we have yet to learn if their fuel consumption has made a similar leap. Renault have said they have looked to maintain power and improve durability.
Meanwhile Mercedes have just been working on peak power of 1000bhp and even more durability. I still believe that the 3-PU rule will ultimately determine the outcome of the championships, with only Ferrari and Mercedes in the race, at certain circuits.
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