The Official 2018 Chinese Grand Prix Thread **SPOILERS**

[anonymous-user]

Thank you DR Z for continuing to post all this information.

Can't be exactly an easy process but thanks

[Dr Z]

^No probs, I will continue to post as long as I can muster the enthusiasm/time...

So who's betting against a Merc pole/win this race?

They've been very quick at this track in the past...won here in 2012 & 2014-2017.

[Gad-Westy]

Dr Z said:

^No probs, I will continue to post as long as I can muster the enthusiasm/time...

So who's betting against a Merc pole/win this race?

They've been very quick at this track in the past...won here in 2012 & 2014-2017 since they came back to the sport.

Yep, barring any drama, I can't see past Lewis for this one. Red Bull could do with bringing their A-game too.

[rdjohn]

FurballS2000 said:

Dr Z said:

FurballS2000 said:

Hang on medium, soft and ultra soft?? No supers?

Haven't noticed a selection like that before, they are usually three sequential compounds aren't they?

It's a new thing Pirelli are doing this year to have more of a spread in tyre performance to encourage strategy variation between drivers/teams.

Bridgestone used to do it too, bringing two tyre compounds to a race that are two steps apart.

Fair enough, should make it more interesting.

So, Mercedes will be targeting a Soft, Medium race.

[The Moose]

Gad-Westy said:

Yep, barring any drama, I can't see past Lewis for this one. Red Bull could do with bringing their A-game too.

The question is whether Bottas will be bringing home the 1-2 or will the Ferraris.

I have gone for Hamilton Raikonnen Vettel. Let's see what happens!

[DanielSan]

suffolk009 said:

DanielSan said:

slipstream 1985 said:

If williams can't get a point here thy are doomed for the season

Given the weaknesses of their car seem to be aero, handling and top speed I’d say they’re pretty fked everywhere but you need all of those things to work in China to do anything.

Don't forget the drivers....

I keep trying to With how the car is this year I wonder is Kubica is quietly a bit pleased he’s not in the race seat this year. Sirotkin finished 17 seconds back from the next car in Bahrain with only Stroll and a couple of retired cars behind them in the results. That’s a hell of a long way back for 2 Merc powered cars that didn’t seem to have any mechanical issues in the race.

[HustleRussell]

rdjohn said:

So, Mercedes will be targeting a Soft, Medium race.

Nope, nobody is going to qualify on the softs because the Ultras are two steps softer. The Ultras probably won’t go far enough for a one stop. Sure you might get some people outside of the top 10 starting on the softs as you have suggested... should mix things up.

Traditionally, cooler conditions in China favour Mercedes- but this year, who knows?

[sandman77]

HustleRussell said:

Nope, nobody is going to qualify on the softs because the Ultras are two steps softer. The Ultras probably won’t go far enough for a one stop. Sure you might get some people outside of the top 10 starting on the softs as you have suggested... should mix things up.

Traditionally, cooler conditions in China favour Mercedes- but this year, who knows?

I’m not sure. I think the Mercs and Ferrari’s could make it through Q2 on the soft compound. Vettel was 2 seconds faster then 10th Place in qualifying last week.

[HustleRussell]

sandman77 said:

HustleRussell said:

Nope, nobody is going to qualify on the softs because the Ultras are two steps softer. The Ultras probably won’t go far enough for a one stop. Sure you might get some people outside of the top 10 starting on the softs as you have suggested... should mix things up.

Traditionally, cooler conditions in China favour Mercedes- but this year, who knows?

I’m not sure. I think the Mercs and Ferrari’s could make it through Q2 on the soft compound. Vettel was 2 seconds faster then 10th Place in qualifying last week.

If you are in the top 3 teams, wilfully resigning yourself to starting on the 4th or 5th row would be strategic suicide... 12 or 14 laps passing HAAS and Renaults could see the leading driver 10 seconds up the road straight away... and that’s assuming you don’t go backwards from the start on the very long run to turn 1.

[thegreenhell]

HustleRussell said:

If you are in the top 3 teams, wilfully resigning yourself to starting on the 4th or 5th row would be strategic suicide... 12 or 14 laps passing HAAS and Renaults could see the leading driver 10 seconds up the road straight away... and that’s assuming you don’t go backwards from the start on the very long run to turn 1.

They'll still use the ultras for Q3 to get grid position, but should be able to get through Q2 on softs to use them as race tyres. Hamilton managed it comfortably in Bahrain last weekend, and China is even more suited to their car, so it should be easy for them to do this if they wish.

[anonymous-user]

Dr Z said:

^No probs, I will continue to post as long as I can muster the enthusiasm/time...

So who's betting against a Merc pole/win this race?

They've been very quick at this track in the past...won here in 2012 & 2014-2017.

Can't see anyone beating Mercedes this time out. Big power circuit but "to put a spanner in the works" there is a 50-60% of rain for Saturday so it might mix things up for at least qualifying.

The one thing that Mercedes are struggling with this year is tactics. This was normally an issue for Ferrari but I would not have expected this with Mercedes.

They will need to make sure they are spot on this weekend.

To be fair Bottas also needs to step up and make it a 1-2.

[The Moose]

sandman77 said:

HustleRussell said:

Nope, nobody is going to qualify on the softs because the Ultras are two steps softer. The Ultras probably won’t go far enough for a one stop. Sure you might get some people outside of the top 10 starting on the softs as you have suggested... should mix things up.

Traditionally, cooler conditions in China favour Mercedes- but this year, who knows?

I’m not sure. I think the Mercs and Ferrari’s could make it through Q2 on the soft compound. Vettel was 2 seconds faster then 10th Place in qualifying last week.

I can certainly see Mercs and Ferraris could do Q2 on the softs and then hit the ultras for Q3. Would be an interesting strategy.

I guess the thing to do is to stick in a banker on the softs and then sit in the bits with ultras on and make the last minute call.

[The Moose]

ELUSIVEJIM said:

The one thing that Mercedes are struggling with this year is tactics. This was normally an issue for Ferrari but I would not have expected this with Mercedes.

I don't disagree that Ferrari have in the past needed to step up their game when it comes to strategy, but haven't Merc made questionable calls previously? I seem to recall Hamilton being let down on multiple occasions during his tenure at Mercedes.

[StevieBee]

The Moose said:

ELUSIVEJIM said:

The one thing that Mercedes are struggling with this year is tactics. This was normally an issue for Ferrari but I would not have expected this with Mercedes.

I don't disagree that Ferrari have in the past needed to step up their game when it comes to strategy, but haven't Merc made questionable calls previously? I seem to recall Hamilton being let down on multiple occasions during his tenure at Mercedes.

Also, we're only two races in. In Australia, Mercedes got wrong footed on the safety car. I don't really see that as an error as such and could have gone either way. Last weekend was a technical issue on the gearbox which really forced them into the only strategy that made sense. They had no reason to think the Red Bulls would bin it.

Either way, we're splitting hairs really. We've yet to have a proper straight, all-things-being-equal, type fight yet. Should be interesting.

[The Moose]

StevieBee said:

The Moose said:

ELUSIVEJIM said:

The one thing that Mercedes are struggling with this year is tactics. This was normally an issue for Ferrari but I would not have expected this with Mercedes.

I don't disagree that Ferrari have in the past needed to step up their game when it comes to strategy, but haven't Merc made questionable calls previously? I seem to recall Hamilton being let down on multiple occasions during his tenure at Mercedes.

Also, we're only two races in. In Australia, Mercedes got wrong footed on the safety car. I don't really see that as an error as such and could have gone either way. Last weekend was a technical issue on the gearbox which really forced them into the only strategy that made sense. They had no reason to think the Red Bulls would bin it.

Either way, we're splitting hairs really. We've yet to have a proper straight, all-things-being-equal, type fight yet. Should be interesting.

True, although those things are part of 'real life' and will become more so with the reduction in numbers of components that can be used without penalty.

[kambites]

StevieBee said:

Also, we're only two races in. In Australia, Mercedes got wrong footed on the safety car. I don't really see that as an error as such and could have gone either way.

It was an error, Mercedes said as much afterwards - they gave Hamilton the gap he needed to maintain to be safe against Vettel pitting during a VSC and he pulled out to that gap then stopped pushing... they got their calculation of that gap wrong.

They were very unlucky for it to matter, though.

Edited by kambites on Wednesday 11th April 22:14

[HustleRussell]

The Moose said:

sandman77 said:

HustleRussell said:

Nope, nobody is going to qualify on the softs because the Ultras are two steps softer. The Ultras probably won’t go far enough for a one stop. Sure you might get some people outside of the top 10 starting on the softs as you have suggested... should mix things up.

Traditionally, cooler conditions in China favour Mercedes- but this year, who knows?

I’m not sure. I think the Mercs and Ferrari’s could make it through Q2 on the soft compound. Vettel was 2 seconds faster then 10th Place in qualifying last week.

I can certainly see Mercs and Ferraris could do Q2 on the softs and then hit the ultras for Q3. Would be an interesting strategy.

I guess the thing to do is to stick in a banker on the softs and then sit in the bits with ultras on and make the last minute call.

You are both of course spot on, I had a brief brain fart and forgot that they’d only have to get into the top 15. Still, not sure we’ll see it. Green track, pretty big chance of safety car, chance of mixed conditions, long way to go on two sets...

[LaurasOtherHalf]

HustleRussell said:

You are both of course spot on, I had a brief brain fart and forgot that they’d only have to get into the top 15....

Top 10

[HustleRussell]

[Angpozzuto]

The Ferrari does seem to be kinder on its tyres this year so they could possibly have a go at a one stop race