The Official 2018 Singapore Grand Prix Thread **SPOILERS**
Discussion
We keep hearing that the Ferrari is better than the Mercedes now but is it?
Yes, Vettel overtook Hamilton up the Kemmel straight but outright speed is nothing.
Williams has shown that with their double points in Monza and nothing in Singapore.
I think the two cars are very even but Hamilton is making the difference with his driving.
Yes, Vettel overtook Hamilton up the Kemmel straight but outright speed is nothing.
Williams has shown that with their double points in Monza and nothing in Singapore.
I think the two cars are very even but Hamilton is making the difference with his driving.
I think Ferrari believe they have the fastest car and Mercedes seem to have been implying that they feel that the Ferrari is faster too... whether that's over-optimism on Ferrari's part and/or mind games at Mercedes, we'll probably never know. It seemed to me this weekend that overall Raikkonen was probably faster than Bottas, which is perhaps a good indication that the Ferrari was a bit quicker than the Mercedes but of course that's only one track and since Ferrari messed up qualifying so he ended up stuck behind the Mercedes it's a bit of a moot point anyway.
I think it's pretty clear from watching the relative performance of the mid-field teams that the Ferrari PU has taken a significant step forwards compared to the Mercedes one in recent races, especially in qualifying trim. The question seems to be whether Mercedes have improved their chassis/aero enough to compensate for it. Mercedes certainly seem to have found something to keep them competitive.
I think it's pretty clear from watching the relative performance of the mid-field teams that the Ferrari PU has taken a significant step forwards compared to the Mercedes one in recent races, especially in qualifying trim. The question seems to be whether Mercedes have improved their chassis/aero enough to compensate for it. Mercedes certainly seem to have found something to keep them competitive.
kambites said:
We haven't had the new points system all that long. If you think about coming back from a win and two thirds down with six races remaining (ie 17 points in the old system) I suspect there have been a few?
3 things though.1. The old points system used to have a 40% gap between points for a win and points for 2nd. So assuming 1-2's, an old 17 point gap could be overcome with 5 wins and 1 2nd place - now it needs 6 wins.
2. The old points system coincided with much more frequent DNFs. So large point deficits were regularly eaten up (and indeed opened up).
3. When Kimi came from 20 points back with 6 races to go in 2007 (50pts equivalent now) he was up against two competing (and squabbling) drivers from the same team with no team orders. I can't see Bottas taking points off Hamilton from here on!
kambites said:
It's worth remembering that whilst he didn't do anything as catastrophic as Vettel's crash in Germany, Hamilton had a good few races earlier in the season where he really wasn't performing as one would expect him to. The first half of the season he only really out-scored Bottas because Bottas was extremely unlucky.
I don't think Bottas has got slower in the second half of the season, I think Hamilton has genuinely found nearly half a second a lap in himself from somewhere.
first 6 races Hamilton scored 110 pts to Seb's 96I don't think Bottas has got slower in the second half of the season, I think Hamilton has genuinely found nearly half a second a lap in himself from somewhere.
the next 6, 103 vs 93
it's not inconceivable that that sort of form will continue for the last 6, so even if Seb was level on points right now, that's a challenge ... but throw in a 40 pts deficit, accept Hamilton is on fire at the moment & that Merc seem to have now got a handle on the tyres
well ...it's not looking good
^More stats...
Tyre allocations have been bizarre the last few races, and given how that decision's made a while in advance, you'd have to assume on the strategy front, they've probably tied one hand behind their own back for Sochi already.
It's a very, very strong car, but they've failed to use it. Merc in contrast, have got 100% out of a slightly weaker car.Hamilton - 7 poles - 7 wins
Vettel - 5 poles - 5 wins
Doesn't quite tell the story of 2018 does it?
Hamilton has managed to finish 2nd when he had started the race on pole and didn't win.
Vettel however, has leaked more than double the points when he didn't manage to win from pole. I'd argue not all of it were his fault though, China was a big one where the team let him down by not anticipating the Merc undercut when he was cruising out front then after the SC the drivers struggled to switch on the tyres when nobody expected them to behave this way. Germany, again it was a tough call compounded by Hamilton running the perfect alternate-strategy, Vettel still crashed out but could have finished 3rd at least. Baku was his race again, but Merc had things go their way with the VSC timing, however, he could have finished 2nd/3rd from where he was at that point.
Front row lock outs in qualifying
Merc - 4
Ferrari - 3
Points achieved from front row lockouts
Merc - 109 of 172 available
Ferrari - 74 of 129 available
Even with the double DNF in Austria for Merc, they have a slightly better scoring rate than Ferrari. There has not been a single Ferrari 1-2 on a sunday all season whereas Merc have had 2. Last year Merc had the stronger/faster car over the season, IMO, but Ferrari finished 1-2 twice, compared to Merc's 4 times.
If Vettel & Ferrari are going to win both of this year's Championships they need to bang out some 1-2s in the next races in the correct order. Is it likely given the form so far? I doubt it very much. 40 points is a huge buffer given how close these two cars are in performance. Ferrari need to have things go their way for them to take this to the last race, IMO.
NFC 85 Vette said:
oyster said:
Not this s
t again!!!
How can both Monza AND Singapore be tracks suited to the same car? Unless that car is light years ahead of the opposition.
What similar characteristics are there between the 2 tracks?
Virtually none.
It's well known that the Ferrari has a horsepower advantage and a traction / throttle pickup advantage out of low speed corners. For those reasons, Monza and Singapore are both tracks that should have favoured their car. The problem has been translating that potential into actual performance come race day (through free practice and qualifying, they looked strong). If they don't drop the ball in qualifying, they most certainly do during the race.t again!!!How can both Monza AND Singapore be tracks suited to the same car? Unless that car is light years ahead of the opposition.
What similar characteristics are there between the 2 tracks?
Virtually none.
Tyre allocations have been bizarre the last few races, and given how that decision's made a while in advance, you'd have to assume on the strategy front, they've probably tied one hand behind their own back for Sochi already.
It's a very, very strong car, but they've failed to use it. Merc in contrast, have got 100% out of a slightly weaker car.
Vettel - 5 poles - 5 wins
Doesn't quite tell the story of 2018 does it?
| Vettel | Hamilton | |
| Races won from pole | 2 | 4 |
| Races lost from pole | 3 | 3 |
| Races won not from pole | 3 | 3 |
| Points lost from pole | 49 | 21 |
| Points gained by winning from not pole | 21 | 32 |
Hamilton has managed to finish 2nd when he had started the race on pole and didn't win.
Vettel however, has leaked more than double the points when he didn't manage to win from pole. I'd argue not all of it were his fault though, China was a big one where the team let him down by not anticipating the Merc undercut when he was cruising out front then after the SC the drivers struggled to switch on the tyres when nobody expected them to behave this way. Germany, again it was a tough call compounded by Hamilton running the perfect alternate-strategy, Vettel still crashed out but could have finished 3rd at least. Baku was his race again, but Merc had things go their way with the VSC timing, however, he could have finished 2nd/3rd from where he was at that point.
Front row lock outs in qualifying
Merc - 4
Ferrari - 3
Points achieved from front row lockouts
Merc - 109 of 172 available
Ferrari - 74 of 129 available
Even with the double DNF in Austria for Merc, they have a slightly better scoring rate than Ferrari. There has not been a single Ferrari 1-2 on a sunday all season whereas Merc have had 2. Last year Merc had the stronger/faster car over the season, IMO, but Ferrari finished 1-2 twice, compared to Merc's 4 times.
If Vettel & Ferrari are going to win both of this year's Championships they need to bang out some 1-2s in the next races in the correct order. Is it likely given the form so far? I doubt it very much. 40 points is a huge buffer given how close these two cars are in performance. Ferrari need to have things go their way for them to take this to the last race, IMO.
DS240 said:
I believed he was the next Schumacher era for Ferrari. But I fear someone of that calibre won’t come around too often. He was a great in a different league.
That team was about much more than Schumacher. With Todt/Brawn/Byrne I think you’d have your wish for Vettel titles.oyster said:
How in 2017, then, did an utterly dominant Mercedes in Monza go on to become a dog in Singapore?
There's more to it when explaining the issues Merc had last year. At the time it was argued that the wheelbase (being on the long side) was hampering it on tight and twisty tracks. A long wheelbase often helps on quicker tracks with long straights.Wheelbases have changed on some cars this year and not others; Ferrari - 70mm longer than last year. Merc - identical to 2017. Red Bull - 143mm longer this year.
Rakes have also changed on the Ferrari and Merc (both running more than last year). The upshot of all this, and the development work undertaken by Merc has left them with a car that can cope with twisty tracks much better than it did last year, while retaining the wheelbase that's of use at a greater majority of tracks.
Ferrari went the opposite route; this year's car is longer, to make it a better performing car overall, and slightly less capable at Monaco, Hungary and Singapore. Not a bad move if you're playing the long game and wanting to win a championship, and not just 3 races emphatically (something they failed at miserably this year).
andburg said:
The Surveyor said:
Singapore is a track where overtaking near the front of the grid is almost impossible as Bottas found out trying to get past the back-markers.
Bottas was in a far faster car and couldn't get close to the Renault, yet throughout the rear-midfield there were some great nose to tail battle even if little overtaking occurred.Ignoring Singapore as arather extreme example, this still shows the reality of F1.
Mechanical grip is fairly similar across all cars but the top cars have much more aero generated grip so are affected far more when following closely. The slower cars don't lose as much of their performance when following and know they're going to be running in dirty air so aren't setup to attack the top 3 teams.
This is why we get some great prolonged battles through the midfield but rarely at the front.
reducing aero dependancy has to happen.
Not sure how it would work but I'd almost argue for a maximum amount of downforce so teams would have to differentiate by reducing drag
It's been a great season so far so I think things are getting better, albeit slowly.
NFC 85 Vette said:
Ferrari went the opposite route; this year's car is longer, to make it a better performing car overall, and slightly less capable at Monaco, Hungary and Singapore. Not a bad move if you're playing the long game and wanting to win a championship, and not just 3 races emphatically (something they failed at miserably this year).
I think you can add to this that the Mercedes changes have to a large extent stopped the car being "a diva". They seem to have a much easier time of finding a setup, be much more consistent with tyres, and be a bit less sensitive to dirty air... Fine margins but I think we see progress in these areas.And conversely, I think Ferrari have a car which often has more outright pace, but is now suffering more with these other aspects and they're really hurting results.
ELUSIVEJIM said:
Anyone think it's strange how Ricciardo seems to be going backwards since signing for Renault?
Way off Verstappen in qualifying and again in the race.
That is not just driver performance.
MV’s a bit quicker than DR as shown in the quali stats for this year (and last), also if without incident he’s usually quicker in the race too. MV had a stinker of a start to the season but seems to be avoiding incidents a bit better now. Way off Verstappen in qualifying and again in the race.
That is not just driver performance.
Quali stats – MV out qualified team mate 11 times, DR out qualified team mate 2 times.
Driver Beat team mate Average gap to team mate
Fernando Alonso 14 -0.344s
Max Verstappen 11 -0.574s
Charles Leclerc 11 -0.541s
Sebastian Vettel 11 -0.493s
Esteban Ocon 11 -0.076s
Pierre Gasly 9 -1.162s
Lewis Hamilton 9 -0.128s
Nico Hulkenberg 8 +0.35s
Sergey Sirotkin 7 -0.026s
Kevin Magnussen 7 +0.16s
Lance Stroll 6 +0.026s
Carlos Sainz Jnr 5 -0.35s
Romain Grosjean 5 -0.16s
Valtteri Bottas 5 +0.128s
Sergio Perez 3 +0.076s
Kimi Raikkonen 3 +0.493s
Marcus Ericsson 3 +0.541s
Brendon Hartley 3 +1.162s
Daniel Ricciardo 2 +0.574s
Stoffel Vandoorne 0 +0.344s
Dunc.
Edited by dunc_sx on Monday 17th September 14:31
Edited by dunc_sx on Monday 17th September 14:33
Hungrymc said:
NFC 85 Vette said:
Ferrari went the opposite route; this year's car is longer, to make it a better performing car overall, and slightly less capable at Monaco, Hungary and Singapore. Not a bad move if you're playing the long game and wanting to win a championship, and not just 3 races emphatically (something they failed at miserably this year).
I think you can add to this that the Mercedes changes have to a large extent stopped the car being "a diva". They seem to have a much easier time of finding a setup, be much more consistent with tyres, and be a bit less sensitive to dirty air... Fine margins but I think we see progress in these areas.And conversely, I think Ferrari have a car which often has more outright pace, but is now suffering more with these other aspects and they're really hurting results.
The LWB concept is less dependant on aero vortices sealing the sides of the floor, which naturally makes the high rake SWB cars (red bull for exampl) very dependant on front wing.
There is a theory that the LWB cars are therefore better in the wet.
The theory goes that the SWB cars should therefore be worse in dirty air however it seems to be the Mercedes which is affected worse. How many times have we heard about HAM not being able to get close or follow?
I suppose we don’t know why he can’t follow, is it a lack of downforce hurting his pace or is it actually hurting his tyres which therefore means he has to slow his own pace.
I don’t think we’ll ever know as the teams are never going to public RS their weaknesses.
ELUSIVEJIM said:
We keep hearing that the Ferrari is better than the Mercedes now but is it?
Yes, Vettel overtook Hamilton up the Kemmel straight but outright speed is nothing.
Williams has shown that with their double points in Monza and nothing in Singapore.
I think the two cars are very even but Hamilton is making the difference with his driving.
I saw something being made of totos claim that they'd ironed a couple of bugs out that enabled the car to perform so well this weekend, but with a good car bottas is normally closer to Hamilton, so I'm wondering if it was Lewis who made the difference and totos just gaming ferrari.Yes, Vettel overtook Hamilton up the Kemmel straight but outright speed is nothing.
Williams has shown that with their double points in Monza and nothing in Singapore.
I think the two cars are very even but Hamilton is making the difference with his driving.
It looked very much like Ferrari had everything right just a few races ago. If Mercedes have upped their game fair play but Ferrari have certainly lots to think about how they haven't taken advantage of their better performance. Also appears a bit of atmosphere between Vettel and managment
I think the odds of Ferrari and vettel coming back and taking the championships is very long but it's racing and anything can happen, but on a positive note Ferrari have really upped their game with reliability I don't think they've had any mechanical retirements this season unlike last season
Angpozzuto said:
I think the odds of Ferrari and vettel coming back and taking the championships is very long but it's racing and anything can happen, but on a positive note Ferrari have really upped their game with reliability I don't think they've had any mechanical retirements this season unlike last season
Kimi has had 3 retirements, granted only one was PU related (Spain), Belgium was DRS, and Bahrain was the pit stop incident.Been very reliable.
Mercedes have Ferrari seem to have been pretty similar in terms of reliability so there's no reason to believe that'll help one or the other. I think Ferrari have had a few more reliability issues in free practice than Mercedes, but I could be wrong? Angpozzuto said:
I think the odds of Ferrari and vettel coming back and taking the championships is very long but it's racing and anything can happen, but on a positive note Ferrari have really upped their game with reliability I don't think they've had any mechanical retirements this season unlike last season
ferrari fans will be big on '07 right about now I think, although Hamilton doesn't have McLaren to toss away the championship he's bought and paid for.Gassing Station | Formula 1 | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff