The Official 2019 Australian Grand Prix Thread **SPOILERS**

[sparta6]

Major pile up at T1 ala Spa courtesy of Coulthard.

Kimi wins in the Alfa

[Stan the Bat]

sparta6 said:

Major pile up at T1 ala Spa courtesy of Coulthard.

Kimi wins in the Alfa

Naah DR in the Renault-------Australia implodes.

[DanielSan]

Deesee said:

If you wanted to win a championship in the past you needed to win 6/7 races.. and finish relatively strong in the remainders.

If you want to win a championship against Lewis Hamilton however you need to win 10/11 races, and hope for a bit of bad luck on Lewis side.

There's no one on the grid capable of winning 11 races in a season apart from Lewis in that Merc, and that’s exactly what they will do manage the engine/s to 11 races wins.

Vettel has managed 13 so he's more than capable of 11, as always it comes down to the car.

[TheDeuce]

Deesee said:

If you wanted to win a championship in the past you needed to win 6/7 races.. and finish relatively strong in the remainders.

If you want to win a championship against Lewis Hamilton however you need to win 10/11 races, and hope for a bit of bad luck on Lewis side.

There's no one on the grid capable of winning 11 races in a season apart from Lewis in that Merc, and that’s exactly what they will do manage the engine/s to 11 races wins.

True I think. Even if you could in theory prove one car was 'faster' than the other overall, the end result is more heavily effected by other factors in modern F1.

Notwithstanding that we don't know if this year's Merc is a strong car, but it seems likely it will be.

As for bad luck, is the Ferrari going to be as reliable as the Merc? That could also swing it. The two cars will likely be close enough for a couple of DNFs to more than compensate for and pace difference.

[Jasandjules]

DanielSan said:

Vettel has managed 13 so he's more than capable of 11, as always it comes down to the car.

Well a couple of times last Season it came down to errors by Vettel.....

[Deesee]

DanielSan said:

Deesee said:

If you wanted to win a championship in the past you needed to win 6/7 races.. and finish relatively strong in the remainders.

If you want to win a championship against Lewis Hamilton however you need to win 10/11 races, and hope for a bit of bad luck on Lewis side.

There's no one on the grid capable of winning 11 races in a season apart from Lewis in that Merc, and that’s exactly what they will do manage the engine/s to 11 races wins.

Vettel has managed 13 so he's more than capable of 11, as always it comes down to the car.

Vettel did not even manage to finish on the poduim 13 times last yr, it’s more than the car...

Lewis had 17 podiums and 11 victories.

Both had the same amount of retirements btw..one binned it off the track, the other was mechanical..

Edited by Deesee on Tuesday 12th March 20:37

[another 3 points]

cheddar said:

I would absolutely LOVE an upset to all of our Mercedes/Ferrari/Seb/Lewis conquering predictions, I don't care which team or which driver but please, please bring it on

Enter Leclerc.

[DanielSan]

Deesee said:

Vettel did not even manage to finish on the poduim 13 times last yr, it’s more than the car...

Lewis had 17 podiums and 11 victories.

Both had the same amount of retirements btw..one binned it off the track, the other was mechanical..

Edited by Deesee on Tuesday 12th March 20:37

You stated no one else is capable of winning 11 races in a season other than Hamilton, Vettel and Schumacher have both managed 13. Of those 2 drivers one is still in the grid so he is capable of doing it is he not?

[Petrus1983]

I can see Kimi doing well this year - the environment suits him and the Alfa doesn’t look too shabby either.

[Deesee]

DanielSan said:

Deesee said:

Vettel did not even manage to finish on the poduim 13 times last yr, it’s more than the car...

Lewis had 17 podiums and 11 victories.

Both had the same amount of retirements btw..one binned it off the track, the other was mechanical..

Edited by Deesee on Tuesday 12th March 20:37

You stated no one else is capable of winning 11 races in a season other than Hamilton, Vettel and Schumacher have both managed 13. Of those 2 drivers one is still in the grid so he is capable of doing it is he not?

In the current environment, turbo hybrid, current regs, and closer matched cars (Ferrari/Merc not 2013 Red Bull/Ferrari) I’d have to say I don’t think Vettel can at this present time.

In the last 5 seasons LH has managed at least 9 wins, including one year (10) where he finished 2nd.

Consistent...

If Bottas,CLC or Seb want that WDC I’d say 11 wins they would need, and imo I can’t see any of them doing that.

[davidc1]

Just noticed the race is on sky1 as well. Not sure if this has been posted previously.

[LaurasOtherHalf]

It's easy to be consistent in the best car of the field and even when HAM didn't have the best car, like last year, it wasn't exactly too far off the pace!

I'm a huge HAM-fan but if the Ferrari is the rumoured 3/10ths of a lap quicker than the Mercedes (and reliable), he aint going to be winning 10 races this season.

[Bright Halo]

I'm really hoping that Adrian Newey has weaved his magic on this years RB. You never know, a bit of sandbagging during pre season testing, major step forward with engine power from Honda and it could make the season exciting.
I'm not a great fan of RB but I just want someone to ensure Ferrari and Merc don't have it all their own way.

[rdjohn]

LaurasOtherHalf said:

I'm a huge HAM-fan but if the Ferrari is the rumoured 3/10ths of a lap quicker than the Mercedes (and reliable), he aint going to be winning 10 races this season.

3/10ths of what? Some journalists fantasy predictions, plus a load of deliberate misinformation from teams.

Melbourne today is nothing like Barcelona 2-weeks ago. And will be nothing like Paul Richard, Silverstone, Spa, Monza, Singapore etc etc etc. later in the season.

We have 21 races to enjoy. Trying to guess the outcome of the WDC before the first free practice is a prediction too far.

[TheDeuce]

rdjohn said:

LaurasOtherHalf said:

I'm a huge HAM-fan but if the Ferrari is the rumoured 3/10ths of a lap quicker than the Mercedes (and reliable), he aint going to be winning 10 races this season.

3/10ths of what? Some journalists fantasy predictions, plus a load of deliberate misinformation from teams.

Melbourne today is nothing like Barcelona 2-weeks ago. And will be nothing like Paul Richard, Silverstone, Spa, Monza, Singapore etc etc etc. later in the season.

We have 21 races to enjoy. Trying to guess the outcome of the WDC before the first free practice is a prediction too far.

Totally agree. And you can't really have a 'rumour' of something that's totally impossible for anyone to know. No one on the planet, no one in Mercedes or Ferrari currently know what the real difference in performance will be. Because the only testing stats each team can fully understand (and trust) are their own.

Where did this rumour start? Mercedes... They will tell anyone with a camera that their car is a bit slow or 'needs work'. Hamilton is an expert at looking and sounding a bit sad/troubled about his car - then bangs in a P1 and credits his and the teams faith and positivity for the result!

[Drew106]

davidc1 said:

Just noticed the race is on sky1 as well. Not sure if this has been posted previously.

Oh interesting...

Just had a look there and I could get a NOW TV Entertainment free trial and watch this.

Question is, do I want to set the early alarm! 5.10am for the race start

[playalistic]

Drew106 said:

davidc1 said:

Just noticed the race is on sky1 as well. Not sure if this has been posted previously.

Oh interesting...

Just had a look there and I could get a NOW TV Entertainment free trial and watch this.

Question is, do I want to set the early alarm! 5.10am for the race start

They’re replaying it throughout the day. I’m gonna get up to watch the 8am replay. A bit more palatable!

[E34-3.2]

TheDeuce said:

Where did this rumour start?

It started after Pirelli analysed all the datas after 2 weeks of practice. All available online.

[rdjohn]

E34-3.2 said:

It started after Pirelli analysed all the datas after 2 weeks of practice. All available online.

This is Pirelli’s press statement after the test.

I struggle to understand how you extrapolate a 3/10s lead for Ferrari from this data.

[LaurasOtherHalf]

Christ rdjohn, do you have to take such a bloody minded attitude with everything that’s written in an F1 thread?

I said “if” and “rumoured”.

We’ve had nothing since November but testing and conjecture, what on Earth else are we supposed to talk about?