The Official 2019 Australian Grand Prix Thread **SPOILERS**
Discussion
TheDeuce said:
It's no more flawed than any other prediction, in as much as anything can happen. all I'm claiming is that there is a strong correlation between a team that enters the season with a 1-2 finish, and a team that has the potential to go on and win the WCC.. The Melbourne stats demonstrate that to be usually correct. So far, we could say 100% correct, but I'm not a fool - I'm well aware that in the fullness of time the stats will fail and it won't happen.
If something happens 7 out of 7 times, it's not unreasonable to start to accept it's a good indicator of what may happen again, and then look at why the two events seem to occur hand in hand so reliably.
By no means unreasonable, particularly this year.If something happens 7 out of 7 times, it's not unreasonable to start to accept it's a good indicator of what may happen again, and then look at why the two events seem to occur hand in hand so reliably.
Without the damage to Lewis's car which iirc he thought occurred on the 4th lap, we may well have had two cars 20 seconds ahead of the rest of the field.
Ferrari weren't there for the sightseeing they were busting a gut and still 20s adrift potentially from both Hamilton and Bottas. In f1 that's not even a different planet it's a different galaxy.
The circuit factor will be clearer after the next race or two but for Ferrari and Red Bull to play catch up they first need to see which way the silver arrows went.
turbobloke said:
TheDeuce said:
It's no more flawed than any other prediction, in as much as anything can happen. all I'm claiming is that there is a strong correlation between a team that enters the season with a 1-2 finish, and a team that has the potential to go on and win the WCC.. The Melbourne stats demonstrate that to be usually correct. So far, we could say 100% correct, but I'm not a fool - I'm well aware that in the fullness of time the stats will fail and it won't happen.
If something happens 7 out of 7 times, it's not unreasonable to start to accept it's a good indicator of what may happen again, and then look at why the two events seem to occur hand in hand so reliably.
By no means unreasonable, particularly this year.If something happens 7 out of 7 times, it's not unreasonable to start to accept it's a good indicator of what may happen again, and then look at why the two events seem to occur hand in hand so reliably.
Without the damage to Lweis's car which iirc he thought occurred on the 4th lap, we may well have had two cars 20 seconds ahead of the rest of the field.
Ferrari weren't there for the sightseeing they were busting a gut and still 20s adrift potentially from both Hamilton and Bottas. In f1 that's not even a different planet it's a different galaxy.
The circuit factor will be clearer after the next race or two but for Ferrari and Red Bull to play catch up they first need to see which way the silver arrows went.
Yes Ferrari were clearly trying. Yes Mercedes were insanely fast (we're talking 1 second per lap faster than Ferrari, and nearly half a second per lap over Verstappen). Yes even with damage Lewis was competitive enough to come home second and No, Ferrari and Red Bull probably can't 'just catch up'. Mercedes will keep moving forwards too, so catching up in F1 is extremely difficult.
In the end I expect with development it will get tighter, and Mercedes won't excel at every track. But by the time Ferrari have got on top of whatever they failed to for this race, it's likely the points advantage at Mercedes is going to be commanding - unless of course Red Bull really do have more to give, as rumoured.
With the above FACTS known (as in - it's fact, that's how the race went) it is totally reasonable to make predictions. It would be different if Mercedes fought and snatched the 1-2, but they didn't really. They walked it, one car walked it with a limp! At what time is it reasonable to say "Yup, it's pretty likely Mercedes have this season"? Even if I say that, and happen to be proven wrong, it wouldn't be a silly or unfounded prediction at all. It would, I think most people would agree, be reasonable. And the last 20 or so years of stats at Melbourne support just how reasonable a prediction it would be.
Sorry for the rant
I just feel that unlike a week ago, it's now totally time to make/debate predictions. There is enough to go off now for it to not be a complete waste of time or pure guesswork.turbobloke said:
The problem with Lewis's damaged car putting a Merc in Max's sights is blinding commentators to the actual chasm in relative performance. Sweet dreams listening to a coaching tape and three weetybangs for breakfast can't explain what Bottas did, and which Hamilton could have done.
Yep, it's more fun to speculate on 'how fast' Red Bull are than focus on the reality that Mercedes were so fast, no one else was actually fast at all.Although, Red Bull, or at least, Max, were able to soundly get past Vettel on a track where overtaking is usually rare. There is some reason to smile on Red Bull's performance for sure. But overall, Sunday was a Mercedes story - I think a lot of people, including F1 media, don't want to focus on that too much, as continued Mercedes dominance is boring. But whatever, it's also reality! And actually now Hamilton is within a realistic shot of catching and surpassing Schumacher's record, I'm starting to think... why not? It's dull but watching anyone win 7+ times is dull, yet also impressive.
Deesee said:
So...
Marko has come out and said basically the Honda PU is to powerful for the chassis, and “they have not been used to having to put this downforce on a car”, and we have have to previously compensate to get pace!!!
We are working on it!
Then Ferrari have ERS and cooling problems (just ERS for Hass/Alfa) can they be resolved without scrapping the car and binning a PU, (k&h & es)!
No speed higher than 280kph through the traps.
Merc
Mystery floor damage (lap 4 poss), at a canter running 20/30kph less through the traps than the Hondas, Bottas running a perfect race.
Car looks quick in the corners, and a nice 1/2 quali & Race.
Midfield
McLaren
Look race quick, podiums for them this year.
Hass
Quick car, Grosjean unlucky with the wheel, looked like a decent package, and Kmag a decent finish. Need consistency. Podiums this year.
RP
Mr Stroll (jr) best grid starter in F1?
Perez needs to have a good season again.
Car will be dangerously quick on high speed circuits. Podiums or better this year.
Alfa
Great finish for Kimi, and a dogged race for Giovinazzi, proper midfield scrap. Points most weeks.
Renault
A tale of two starts, F1 timing live explained on the start Dani Ric was not used to starting this far back, and then had an incident on the start, Nico decent race points finish. Need to get going.
Torro Rosso,
Kyvat, great drive, points finish and held off the red bull for 17 laps.
AA, did well in quali, a little lost in the race, has raw pace though..
Williams
George, F1 live timing had him as the hardest working driver yesterday, decent debut.
Kubica, unfortunate first lap incident, 3 pit stops and 3 laps down.
That's a lot of teams listed with podium potentialMarko has come out and said basically the Honda PU is to powerful for the chassis, and “they have not been used to having to put this downforce on a car”, and we have have to previously compensate to get pace!!!
We are working on it!
Then Ferrari have ERS and cooling problems (just ERS for Hass/Alfa) can they be resolved without scrapping the car and binning a PU, (k&h & es)!
No speed higher than 280kph through the traps.
Merc
Mystery floor damage (lap 4 poss), at a canter running 20/30kph less through the traps than the Hondas, Bottas running a perfect race.
Car looks quick in the corners, and a nice 1/2 quali & Race.
Midfield
McLaren
Look race quick, podiums for them this year.
Hass
Quick car, Grosjean unlucky with the wheel, looked like a decent package, and Kmag a decent finish. Need consistency. Podiums this year.
RP
Mr Stroll (jr) best grid starter in F1?
Perez needs to have a good season again.
Car will be dangerously quick on high speed circuits. Podiums or better this year.
Alfa
Great finish for Kimi, and a dogged race for Giovinazzi, proper midfield scrap. Points most weeks.
Renault
A tale of two starts, F1 timing live explained on the start Dani Ric was not used to starting this far back, and then had an incident on the start, Nico decent race points finish. Need to get going.
Torro Rosso,
Kyvat, great drive, points finish and held off the red bull for 17 laps.
AA, did well in quali, a little lost in the race, has raw pace though..
Williams
George, F1 live timing had him as the hardest working driver yesterday, decent debut.
Kubica, unfortunate first lap incident, 3 pit stops and 3 laps down.
imo, the only teams I can see on the podium this year are Merc, Ferrari, Red Bull
maybe Renault, RP or McLaren with some DNFs and A LOT of luck
TobyTR said:
That's a lot of teams listed with podium potential
imo, the only teams I can see on the podium this year are Merc, Ferrari, Red Bull
maybe Renault, RP or McLaren with some DNFs and A LOT of luck
I agree. It's common in the F1 community to put down such speculation, but the current formula/regs are now very mature and the top 3 teams have refined their efforts, to become fairly unassailable. I suppose it's possible that there could still be a genuine surprise from another team, but unlikely.imo, the only teams I can see on the podium this year are Merc, Ferrari, Red Bull
maybe Renault, RP or McLaren with some DNFs and A LOT of luck
And any other team after a podium, needs at least 4 drivers out of the 6 that are each in top flight cars, to have a very bad day. Which will probably happen at some point, somehow... But it's hardly going to be a trend.
The only question I have when it comes to podiums, is who out of Red Bull or Ferrari will take the most, behind Mercedes.
Plenty of unknowns in the midfield though
Seems a bit premature... "Valtteri Bottas - no more just Lewis Hamilton's wingman"
https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/47623639
Calm doon man, it's only the first race!
https://www.bbc.com/sport/formula1/47623639
Calm doon man, it's only the first race!
TobyTR said:
That's a lot of teams listed with podium potential
imo, the only teams I can see on the podium this year are Merc, Ferrari, Red Bull
maybe Renault, RP or McLaren with some DNFs and A LOT of luck
? Big 3 + McLaren, RP & Hass.imo, the only teams I can see on the podium this year are Merc, Ferrari, Red Bull
maybe Renault, RP or McLaren with some DNFs and A LOT of luck
McLaren, decent set off wheels this year, they'll seek a podium or two.
Hass, Quick car, and apparently do not have the cooling issues Ferrari have, RG is too quick for his own good, and Kmag is up there wheel to wheel with anyone in the midfield, again multiple podiums for me.
RP, car that is slippery down the straights, comfortably the quickest Merc powered car in a straight line, look out for them at high speed circuits.
With only 3 PU (& PU parts) this year, we are going to see a few mixed up grids.
Deesee said:
? Big 3 + McLaren, RP & Hass.
McLaren, decent set off wheels this year, they'll seek a podium or two.
Hass, Quick car, and apparently do not have the cooling issues Ferrari have, RG is too quick for his own good, and Kmag is up there wheel to wheel with anyone in the midfield, again multiple podiums for me.
RP, car that is slippery down the straights, comfortably the quickest Merc powered car in a straight line, look out for them at high speed circuits.
With only 3 PU (& PU parts) this year, we are going to see a few mixed up grids.
I mean, I'd like to believe these drivers can see multiple podiums but it's a big ask..McLaren, decent set off wheels this year, they'll seek a podium or two.
Hass, Quick car, and apparently do not have the cooling issues Ferrari have, RG is too quick for his own good, and Kmag is up there wheel to wheel with anyone in the midfield, again multiple podiums for me.
RP, car that is slippery down the straights, comfortably the quickest Merc powered car in a straight line, look out for them at high speed circuits.
With only 3 PU (& PU parts) this year, we are going to see a few mixed up grids.
Where will the top 6 cars be that will make that possible? I suppose it's possible there will be a race in which both feraris are at the back with penalties, bottas crashes, Hamilton is off work with food poisening and verstappen crashes into his team mate. Unlikely to work out that well for the midfield 'multiple' times though
TheDeuce said:
Deesee said:
? Big 3 + McLaren, RP & Hass.
McLaren, decent set off wheels this year, they'll seek a podium or two.
Hass, Quick car, and apparently do not have the cooling issues Ferrari have, RG is too quick for his own good, and Kmag is up there wheel to wheel with anyone in the midfield, again multiple podiums for me.
RP, car that is slippery down the straights, comfortably the quickest Merc powered car in a straight line, look out for them at high speed circuits.
With only 3 PU (& PU parts) this year, we are going to see a few mixed up grids.
I mean, I'd like to believe these drivers can see multiple podiums but it's a big ask..McLaren, decent set off wheels this year, they'll seek a podium or two.
Hass, Quick car, and apparently do not have the cooling issues Ferrari have, RG is too quick for his own good, and Kmag is up there wheel to wheel with anyone in the midfield, again multiple podiums for me.
RP, car that is slippery down the straights, comfortably the quickest Merc powered car in a straight line, look out for them at high speed circuits.
With only 3 PU (& PU parts) this year, we are going to see a few mixed up grids.
Where will the top 6 cars be that will make that possible? I suppose it's possible there will be a race in which both feraris are at the back with penalties, bottas crashes, Hamilton is off work with food poisening and verstappen crashes into his team mate. Unlikely to work out that well for the midfield 'multiple' times though
Why not, every year in the turbo hybrid era to date, there’s been a poduim/s from outside the ‘big 3’.
This year I think it’s going to be a little closer and your going to see a few more names up there.
Deesee said:
Teams not drivers!
Why not, every year in the turbo hybrid era to date, there’s been a poduim/s from outside the ‘big 3’.
This year I think it’s going to be a little closer and your going to see a few more names up there.
You said multiple podiums just for Haas alone. Yeah I'm sure some of the midfield will sneak the odd podium. One way or another.Why not, every year in the turbo hybrid era to date, there’s been a poduim/s from outside the ‘big 3’.
This year I think it’s going to be a little closer and your going to see a few more names up there.
Personally I think the more mature the current era and formula becomes, the harder it is for anyone outside the top 3 to see a podium. The top 3 teams huge budgets have seen them evolve to a point that significant reliability or performance (relative to midfield cars) problems are increasingly unlikely.
Kmag did a great job on Sunday and was up there. But it was a race where Ferrari were considered to have had a shocking day, and he was 30 seconds behind them. Over a minute off third place. If the race were repeated, he would need to either find a second per lap to fight for third, or hope that both Ferrari's and verstappen had some extreme bad luck.
Edited by TheDeuce on Wednesday 20th March 11:20
|https://thumbsnap.com/kENX3sio[/url]
Some words from Binotto about Ferrari performance
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.binotto...
Not exactly enlightening tbh. All this talk of the track at Melbourne being more difficult that Barcelona.. Well, sure - but everyone else was on that same track too
It's curious that they tried throughout the weekend to get the setup right, and failed to such an extent that they were a full minute off Mercedes pace. Or.. perhaps it is better viewed as Ferrari not getting it quite right, and Mercedes simply having an inherently much faster car at this stage.
I think Bahrain will be very revealing, as it's such a different track. I'm expecting Mercedes to maintain a solid advantage though...
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.binotto...
Not exactly enlightening tbh. All this talk of the track at Melbourne being more difficult that Barcelona.. Well, sure - but everyone else was on that same track too
It's curious that they tried throughout the weekend to get the setup right, and failed to such an extent that they were a full minute off Mercedes pace. Or.. perhaps it is better viewed as Ferrari not getting it quite right, and Mercedes simply having an inherently much faster car at this stage.
I think Bahrain will be very revealing, as it's such a different track. I'm expecting Mercedes to maintain a solid advantage though...
Deesee said:
Am I correct in thinking that these speeds are distorted by DRS? If you don’t attempt a pass you are more restricted in top speed.It seems a little odd that Merc and Ferrari are so far down, while the midfield are somewhat higher than expected.
rdjohn said:
Deesee said:
Am I correct in thinking that these speeds are distorted by DRS? If you don’t attempt a pass you are more restricted in top speed.It seems a little odd that Merc and Ferrari are so far down, while the midfield are somewhat higher than expected.
Heres Quali speeds, (all have DRS, Min Fuel, crazy engine mode)..
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