The Official F1 2020 silly season *contains speculation*

The Official F1 2020 silly season *contains speculation*

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Teddy Lop

8,301 posts

68 months

Sunday 28th July 2019
quotequote all
Has to be bottas out at the end of the season for sure doesn't it?

You can't pan him for the crash itself when everyone and their mum was spinning off, but on a day when Hamilton was having a rare mare he needed to take baton for merc, not run off faffing around trying to pass lance (heck vettel made the move and he isn't exactly the master of the wheel to wheel)

Ocon alongside ham for next year then?

skwdenyer

16,527 posts

241 months

Monday 29th July 2019
quotequote all
Teddy Lop said:
Has to be bottas out at the end of the season for sure doesn't it?

You can't pan him for the crash itself when everyone and their mum was spinning off, but on a day when Hamilton was having a rare mare he needed to take baton for merc, not run off faffing around trying to pass lance (heck vettel made the move and he isn't exactly the master of the wheel to wheel)

Ocon alongside ham for next year then?
Bottas went off in the same neck of the woods as Hamilton; only luck separated the outcomes. Hamilton was pushing, and dropped it. Bottas was being a little more prudent, and hadn't dropped it. Then the team came on the radio and said "push, push" and Bottas dropped it.

Never mind the baton. Never mind the Ferrari (which was clearly running a softer and more wet-friendly set up than the markedly stiff Mercedes cars). Bottas should really have said "no, I'm not pushing any harder - this is what I can safely do."

From the post-race interviews, I'd say the only reason Bottas went along with the "push, push" instruction was because he was concerned about contract renewal. Which is ironic, of course.

Andy S15

399 posts

128 months

Monday 29th July 2019
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Personally, I still don't understand the push to put Ocon in the car. I don't understand what he has done in the sport to be deemed good enough to match Lewis in the Merc.

Bottas had his first real off weekend of the season so far. Up until now he has been the solid number 2, hasn't caused any issues in the team, is 2nd in the C'ship and has helped put Merc into a pretty much unassailable 2nd in the constructors. That said, he really, really needs to do well in Hungary to give himself some security. A win next week would put Toto into a really difficult position. Feels more like Toto doesn't want to lose Ocon from under his wing, rather than Bottas actually doing a whole lot wrong.

I reckon Ocon alongside Russel in Williams next year would be a good shout, then he can prove if he's got the pace. Russel has proved himself solid this year. Then best of those 2 into the 2nd Merc seat in 2021.

Vaud

Original Poster:

50,607 posts

156 months

Monday 29th July 2019
quotequote all
Ocon has proven he has pace at FI.

thegreenhell

15,404 posts

220 months

Monday 29th July 2019
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Vaud said:
Ocon has proven he has pace at FI.
By getting beaten by Perez, two years in a row?

Vaud

Original Poster:

50,607 posts

156 months

Monday 29th July 2019
quotequote all
thegreenhell said:
Vaud said:
Ocon has proven he has pace at FI.
By getting beaten by Perez, two years in a row?
No.

I mean that he clearly proved to Mercedes by the publicly available data and whatever the team shared with Mercedes that he was the right future investment.

Otherwise, they would be signing Perez (with all of his backing)

I love the armchair expertise in this forum. The team principals have far more data and analysis than we do smile

Andy S15

399 posts

128 months

Monday 29th July 2019
quotequote all
Vaud said:
No.

I mean that he clearly proved to Mercedes by the publicly available data and whatever the team shared with Mercedes that he was the right future investment.

Otherwise, they would be signing Perez (with all of his backing)

I love the armchair expertise in this forum. The team principals have far more data and analysis than we do smile
You mean the publicly available data that still shows him finishing second to Perez 2 years in a row? tongue out

Perez isn't on the Merc books either so that's a moot point.

I just don't see what Ocon has (publicly) done to show him worthy of booting out Bottas. I don't see why Merc seem to eager to put him in the car. Only reason I can see is that they just don't want to loose him, rather than particularly wanting him to drive. Seems Merc are just a bit paranoid these days in case there's another Rosberg surprise exit situation. What more do they want than what Bottas is currently providing? Do they actually want a fight between their two drivers every race?

LaurasOtherHalf

21,429 posts

197 months

Monday 29th July 2019
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I think Mercedes have a point, realistically how many more years does HAM have left in him? Two, three?

The new kids are coming and they don't have one.

Personally, as driver salaries aren't covered by the cost cap I think they simply need to wave the biggest cheque at whoever they want but as is said above, they've had their fingers burnt by ROS so probably don't want to be left out in the cold.


Vaud

Original Poster:

50,607 posts

156 months

Monday 29th July 2019
quotequote all
You are right that Merc want to avoid another Rosberg situation, at almost all costs. It was divisive and destructive.

But my point remains - they have more performance data than the public, and there is more to their assessment than who beat who. They need a range of options - short term and long term; the Rosberg retirement caught them out badly.

Andy S15

399 posts

128 months

Monday 29th July 2019
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Personally I hope they loan out Ocon to another team next year just to get him a drive, but keep the option in his contract to pull him back if required in an emergency. Takes the immediate pressure off whoever is in the no. 2 Merc seat then too and gives Merc a better comparison between Ocon and Russell. Bottas doesn't deserve the boot, despite his poor show yesterday. Ocon doesn't deserve the seat, just by right of being their 3rd driver.

LaurasOtherHalf

21,429 posts

197 months

Monday 29th July 2019
quotequote all
Therein lies the problem, why give a driver a chance, nurture him, invest in his image only for Mercedes to call him back whenever they want. Bye bye goes your driver with all the knowledge and experience you’ve just paid to teach him.

You’d have to get some pretty discounted engines to put up with that.

StevieBee

12,928 posts

256 months

Monday 29th July 2019
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Andy S15 said:
I just don't see what Ocon has (publicly) done to show him worthy of booting out Bottas. I don't see why Merc seem to eager to put him in the car
Ocon's manager is Toto Wolff... in other words, Toto gets a cut of whatever retainer is paid to Ocon. No such relationship exists between Toto and Bottas.

That is not to say that Wolff is motivated by personal gain - if he were, Ocon would be the 2nd Merc driver already - but this will inevitably be a factor.

On the wider subject of Bottas, the race yesterday is already a statistic. Bottas remains second in the championship and highly likely to end the season in that position. Mercedes were long overdue a bad day. Bottas is to Hamilton what Patrese was to Mansell and Irvine was to Schummacher. I really don't think that Ocon is any better or worse than Bottas.

Andy S15

399 posts

128 months

Monday 29th July 2019
quotequote all
StevieBee said:
Ocon's manager is Toto Wolff... in other words, Toto gets a cut of whatever retainer is paid to Ocon. No such relationship exists between Toto and Bottas..
Except it used to exist... before Toto put him into the car.

Norfolkit

2,394 posts

191 months

Monday 29th July 2019
quotequote all
Teddy Lop said:
Has to be bottas out at the end of the season for sure doesn't it?

You can't pan him for the crash itself when everyone and their mum was spinning off, but on a day when Hamilton was having a rare mare he needed to take baton for merc, not run off faffing around trying to pass lance (heck vettel made the move and he isn't exactly the master of the wheel to wheel)

Ocon alongside ham for next year then?
Toto wasn't being overly supportive in some of his interviews over the weekend so I'd say you could be right.


HTP99

22,582 posts

141 months

Monday 29th July 2019
quotequote all
Norfolkit said:
Teddy Lop said:
Has to be bottas out at the end of the season for sure doesn't it?

You can't pan him for the crash itself when everyone and their mum was spinning off, but on a day when Hamilton was having a rare mare he needed to take baton for merc, not run off faffing around trying to pass lance (heck vettel made the move and he isn't exactly the master of the wheel to wheel)

Ocon alongside ham for next year then?
Toto wasn't being overly supportive in some of his interviews over the weekend so I'd say you could be right.
And did you see how upset Bottas was in the interview pen, he looked as though he'd had a good cry and was about to go again, maybe he knows something.

Vaud

Original Poster:

50,607 posts

156 months

Monday 29th July 2019
quotequote all
HTP99 said:
And did you see how upset Bottas was in the interview pen, he looked as though he'd had a good cry and was about to go again, maybe he knows something.
I think he was just upset at himself. With hindsight he could have had a huge haul of points against Lewis.

Mercedes have been clear that they won't decide anything until August, which in itself is hardly a vote of confidence.

I know it would be against their ethos, but if Gasly needs to be swapped still then Bottas would be a good foil against Verstappen, even as an interim move while they identify the next top driver.

HustleRussell

24,724 posts

161 months

Monday 29th July 2019
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There are reasons why Mercedes may not renew Bottas' contract at the end of the season but I'm not sure that the German Grand Prix weekend is one of them. He made fewer mistakes than the team's star driver and didn't come unstuck at all until the team started pushing him on the radio.

Ocon is obviously the principal threat to Bottas' seat- they nearly put Ocon in Hamilton's car at the weekend such is their commitment to him.

Vaud

Original Poster:

50,607 posts

156 months

Monday 29th July 2019
quotequote all
thegreenhell said:
By getting beaten by Perez, two years in a row?
And now Stroll is beating Perez... 18 pts to 13. Stats can be misleading for driver potential?

Andy S15

399 posts

128 months

Monday 29th July 2019
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Vaud said:
And now Stroll is beating Perez... 18 pts to 13. Stats can be misleading for driver potential?
Well, if we take yesterday's results at face value, Perez was certainly made to look amateur yesterday. Only car to bin it there. Stroll with a very mature drive.

So there's only one conclusion to make here - if Perez is better than Ocon, and Stroll is better than Perez, Stroll to the Merc No. 2 seat? biggrin

Vaud

Original Poster:

50,607 posts

156 months

Monday 29th July 2019
quotequote all
Indeed wink