Official 2019 British Grand Prix Thread ***SPOILERS***

Official 2019 British Grand Prix Thread ***SPOILERS***

Author
Discussion

TheDeuce

21,618 posts

67 months

Tuesday 9th July 2019
quotequote all
janesmith1950 said:
orry, you quoted a post I started then deleted (not your fault). I was going to give context to the point but ran out of energy to infect the thread with it, so deleted.

My opinion is that the show has too many people leeching money out of it who aren't necessary for the thing to thrive.
Fair play, in that case I shall say no more. Other than a single word that explains it all: Capitalism.

Graveworm

8,496 posts

72 months

Tuesday 9th July 2019
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
This years ticket sales should be around £50m x 0.7 (your 70%) = £35m. It's enough to host a 4 day event and pay Liberty the assumed £19m, more than enough

Look at their overall revenue from last year, I think it was £59m... If F1 ticket sales account for most of that,
The accounts I linked says F1 is only half of their revenue.. So not the 50 million you are working on.

ZX10R NIN

27,628 posts

126 months

Tuesday 9th July 2019
quotequote all
I'm calling my top ten:

1) LH
2) VB
3) CL
4) SV
5) MV
6) CS
7) LN
8) KM
9) SP
10) KR

TheDeuce

21,618 posts

67 months

Tuesday 9th July 2019
quotequote all
Graveworm said:
TheDeuce said:
This years ticket sales should be around £50m x 0.7 (your 70%) = £35m. It's enough to host a 4 day event and pay Liberty the assumed £19m, more than enough

Look at their overall revenue from last year, I think it was £59m... If F1 ticket sales account for most of that,
The accounts I linked says F1 is only half of their revenue.. So not the 50 million you are working on.
The ticket prices have gone up significantly this year, and it is this year I base my guesstimates on.

How do they attribute income on the Thursday? That's not strictly "F1", they could also legitimately remove %'s of their ticket sales from "F1" as the support series and Porsche run sessions too.

In most account presentations such as this, there is a difference between how something is read, and technically how it is written. Are they referring to the net figure for F1 income after VAT? That would be a little disingenuous given that a break-even business generally reclaims vat to the same level they hand it over to HMRC.

The basic maths show this years ticket income is way, way more than half of last years revenue. It's more than enough to pay Liberty and pay for the event. The only reason they bleat about the cost is to stay off further increases by Liberty or to hope for some government funding. The media lap up their sob story and becomes big news, great for them as they get to make their 'point' about costs and also rev up interest in the event itself on a very large stage. They have been doing this for years. Some member on here must have been to the final Silverstone GP several times smile

TheDeuce

21,618 posts

67 months

Tuesday 9th July 2019
quotequote all
ZX10R NIN said:
I'm calling my top ten:

1) LH
2) VB
3) CL
4) SV
5) MV
6) CS
7) LN
8) KM
9) SP
10) KR
I'd swap 5 & 4 around, apart from that - seems as good a guess as any.

JonChalk

6,469 posts

111 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
quotequote all
ZX10R NIN said:
I'm calling my top ten:

1) LH
2) VB
3) CL
4) SV
5) MV
6) CS
7) LN
8) KM
9) SP
10) KR
I'd have Lando ahead of Carlos, and Kimi above Perez and Mag.

Derek Smith

45,672 posts

249 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
quotequote all
ZX10R NIN said:
I'm calling my top ten:

1) LH
2) VB
3) CL
4) SV
5) MV
6) CS
7) LN
8) KM
9) SP
10) KR
I think we've reached an interesting point in the season with regards to performance of cars.

Everyone, and that includes me, is confident that the RB only managed to win by turning up the wick. Equally, Ferrari were as fast as the Mercs because of the nature of the circuit. However, there does seem to be a certain degree of equivalence. In the midfield we have all sorts of swopping around of ascendancy.

I assume the Mercs will dominate, but I thought that last year. That worked out well.

I would swop a one or two of your choices, particularly Vettel and Leclerk. I think you are spot on with regards the McLaren pair. Norris has shown his worth, but I’m a bit of a fan of Sainz. When the mood takes him, as last race, he can turn it on. I’d be happy with another two McLs in the top 10 whichever came first, but if Norris continues to improve at this rate, it might be the last race Sainz beats his teammate without some misfortune messing with the positions.

Let’s hope Ferrari remember to bring out the tyres for the pit stop. Rather a basic requirement one might have thought.

There are two races now, rather like the time when there were turbo-charged and normally aspirated cars on the grid. We now have the top 5 (sorry Gasly) fighting for the top spot and the podium, with the remainder – less two – fighting for the other positions. Racing Point and HAAS have been disappointing of late. As a fan of McLaren since the first MP4 days, I’ll be following their fortunes closely on Sunday.

I don’t like to predict results and all that means is it reduces the finishing line up possibilities by one but I reckon your choice is good.


TheDeuce

21,618 posts

67 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
quotequote all
Derek Smith said:
I think we've reached an interesting point in the season with regards to performance of cars.

Everyone, and that includes me, is confident that the RB only managed to win by turning up the wick. Equally, Ferrari were as fast as the Mercs because of the nature of the circuit. However, there does seem to be a certain degree of equivalence. In the midfield we have all sorts of swopping around of ascendancy.
We know that when any F1 car is designed these days, certain compromises in the design philosophy are accepted in order that the final car is as good as possible at the maximum number of circuits. No matter how excellent the Mercedes is, there will be certain circuits where the faster and more slippery Ferrari will be a better tool - in theory at least, in reality Ferrari seem to find ways of scuppering the odds this season..

But overall, even without Ferrari's cock ups, the Mercedes seems like the far stronger car overall. It's superior most of the time, and in each area of performance it's at worse slightly off the Ferrari, and in most areas noticeably above.

For me the most interesting comparison is the Red Bull and the Ferrari. These two cars are really very different in philosophy, yet, ignoring Gasly, the cars/drivers have equivalent tally's of points. On paper the Red Bull should be nowhere near as fast around most circuits as the Ferrari, yet frequently we have Max keeping up or passing. Just how often have they been able to turn the wick up for (in race terms) an extended period? Quite often apparently.

Begs the question, that if if Red Bull/Honda are happy to inflict this strain on their PU and manage to do so without it giving up, just how much performance is yet to be reached on a permanent basis following the next major update?

In many ways, this is a development season for RB now. They will take third in WCC almost no matter what they push, break or have as penalties. So they can afford to prod the engine and gamble on glory over a DNF as a result. Crucially it will return the used PU's to Honda having been thoroughly 'tested' in the real world and they will be able to assess how much more power they can safely unleash in the future. Hopefully after the summer break we will see Red Bulls with more full time power available - if so, I don't think Ferrari have much of an answer. Either way it's a Ferrari 2nd and Red Bull 3rd this season - but could be ominous for next season, which will be an evolution of this seasons cars and philosophies.

I see the order as:

Top car: Mercedes.

Runners up: Red Bull, Ferrari.

Midfield: Everyone else.

Back runner: Williams.

If Ferrari want to avoid embarrassment in 2020 I think they need to set their sights on not being beaten by Red Bull - more so than worry about competing directly with Mercedes. They are more likely to get beaten by Red Bull than they are likely to beat Mercedes..

anonymous-user

55 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
quotequote all
If Ferrari up their car performance by 0.5% and cut out the errors, they will be ahead. There isn't this gulf in class everyone assumes. In Bahrain, Canada and Austria they were faster than Mercedes and, for example, in France Bottas nearly lost his position at the end.

If they take the right development path they could easily have the momentum throughout the second half of the championship (though they're too far behind to win it, I think) and continue that into next year.

Derek Smith

45,672 posts

249 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
I see the order as:

Top car: Mercedes.

Runners up: Red Bull, Ferrari.

Midfield: Everyone else.

Back runner: Williams.
Lots of interesting comments in your post, but I'll mention this bit for now.

I don't think Merc are as far ahead as people like me thought. They trailed in Bakku as well as Austria.

Your comments on RB and Ferrari are spot on I think. It is a fascinating battle.

Midfield; it's the best season so far for the second string. Some really fascinating, and surprising, changes.

It is a great season, and it looks likely to get better.


Speed Badger

2,697 posts

118 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
quotequote all
Now Lando is staying for another year at McLaren I'm anticipating a top 6!

DanielSan

18,800 posts

168 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
quotequote all
I'm going to predict again a Merc 1-2 with LH winning and Mercedes saying all weekend how Ferrari are so fast and how they're struggling with made up problems again. Verstappen 3rd after Ferrari cock up yet again.

majordad

3,601 posts

198 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
quotequote all
Is the Porsche Supercup televised and where?

Hungrymc

6,669 posts

138 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
quotequote all
I think this is tough to call, I can't see there being a huge gap between Merc and Ferrari. Not expecting RB to be fully in the mix but after last time out, I don't know. Are we going to see the different traits of the cars make qualifying not a real reflection of race pace (or effectiveness at following / passing) ? I'm really, really unsure of how this will play out... Maybe I'm just talking it up in my own mind and the two Merc's will romp off into the distance.

Derek Smith

45,672 posts

249 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
quotequote all
TheDeuce said:
We know that when any F1 car is designed these days, certain compromises in the design philosophy are accepted in order that the final car is as good as possible at the maximum number of circuits. No matter how excellent the Mercedes is, there will be certain circuits where the faster and more slippery Ferrari will be a better tool - in theory at least, in reality Ferrari seem to find ways of scuppering the odds this season..

But overall, even without Ferrari's cock ups, the Mercedes seems like the far stronger car overall. It's superior most of the time, and in each area of performance it's at worse slightly off the Ferrari, and in most areas noticeably above.

For me the most interesting comparison is the Red Bull and the Ferrari. These two cars are really very different in philosophy, yet, ignoring Gasly, the cars/drivers have equivalent tally's of points. On paper the Red Bull should be nowhere near as fast around most circuits as the Ferrari, yet frequently we have Max keeping up or passing. Just how often have they been able to turn the wick up for (in race terms) an extended period? Quite often apparently.

Begs the question, that if if Red Bull/Honda are happy to inflict this strain on their PU and manage to do so without it giving up, just how much performance is yet to be reached on a permanent basis following the next major update?

In many ways, this is a development season for RB now. They will take third in WCC almost no matter what they push, break or have as penalties. So they can afford to prod the engine and gamble on glory over a DNF as a result. Crucially it will return the used PU's to Honda having been thoroughly 'tested' in the real world and they will be able to assess how much more power they can safely unleash in the future. Hopefully after the summer break we will see Red Bulls with more full time power available - if so, I don't think Ferrari have much of an answer. Either way it's a Ferrari 2nd and Red Bull 3rd this season - but could be ominous for next season, which will be an evolution of this seasons cars and philosophies.
To be fair, I think all teams could 'turn up the wick' for an occasional win, at least in their division. The Mercs seem to cruise after the first few laps. I do wonder how much of Bottas' poor performance is down to him switching off the engine rather than his intent. Rosberg arguably won the WDC on the strength of an engine blow up.

The Ferrari errors are bewildering, not to mention the reliability. Bloody Leclerk's failure in Bakku added pathos to the race, but little to Ferrari's points.

The important thing to note is that the season is not over yet. Remember Vettel's dig dyring the slowing down lap last year, when Ferrari beat 'them' in their own country? That added a certain frisson to his defeat in Germany by Hamilton starting 15th or so.



Edited by Derek Smith on Wednesday 10th July 11:46

Europa1

10,923 posts

189 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
quotequote all
Leclerc.

It's bloody Leclerc.

No sodding "k".

Leclerc!

Aaaaaarrrrrrrgggghhhh!

furious

And breathe.

Gazzab

21,098 posts

283 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
quotequote all
It will be a wet quali and the field will be mixed up a little. Will make for a good dry race with plenty of overtaking. Ferrari will mess up quali. McLaren won’t be as competitive. Renault will improve. Lewis will have a first corner incident and will come from the back of the field to come 4th. Verstappen 3rd, Bottas 2nd and Vettel 1st.

Gary29

4,160 posts

100 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
quotequote all
majordad said:
Is the Porsche Supercup televised and where?
Sky F1 normally.

exelero

1,890 posts

90 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
quotequote all
DanielSan said:
I'm going to predict again a Merc 1-2 with LH winning and Mercedes saying all weekend how Ferrari are so fast and how they're struggling with made up problems again. Verstappen 3rd after Ferrari cock up yet again.
This year they are participating in the Netflix documentary so, I guess we will see next February or so biggrin Can't wait to be fair

Graveworm

8,496 posts

72 months

Wednesday 10th July 2019
quotequote all
Derek Smith said:
The important thing to note is that the season is not over yet. Remember Vettel's dig dyring the slowing down lap last year, when Ferrari beat 'them' in their own country? That added a certain frisson to his defeat in Germany by Hamilton starting 15th or so.
It was not a great thing to say given the circumstances of how. "They" beat them.
LH coming second from last having been punted off by Kimmi might be more noteworthy.