Why Mercedes Will Leave F1 Before 2021
Discussion
farm said:
Has anyone thought what F1 would be like in 5/10/12 years when we haven't all drowned in an overheated world and still have enough oil left to run V8 or 10s and all the EV's are looking a bit silly
Have a look at formula E and that’s your answer in 10 years.Edited by farm on Tuesday 10th December 14:51
Let’s enjoy the crappy noise we have now as it will seem like heaven when F1 E arrives.
Soon after that the cars will be driverless and then EPH will be comparing the eras again.
So which is best, when cars had people inside (yes I know it’s hard to imagine but they really did have people inside, just like early vending machines) or the current Robo E F1.
If Hamilton wins the WDC again next year, that gives him 7 titles. If Merc withdraw at the end of the year then Hamilton will probably join Ferrari and may then win his 8th. Would Mercedes want to stop and allow that or would they rather Hamilton won the 8th with them?
Also, Ferrari have been in F1 for over 50 years and have never felt the need to sell up.
Also, Ferrari have been in F1 for over 50 years and have never felt the need to sell up.
EVs are a long way from being the new new 'normal' - at least 10 years, if not longer. Whilst they're certainly the future, it isn't the here and now and between now and then, manufacturers are keen to sell as many of their cars as they can regardless of the means of their propulsion. Many means are used to facilitate this, participation in competition being one of them.
FE provides what is at the moment, a relatively low-cost way to demonstrate technical prowess in EV but does not yet have the reach or impact of F1 (from a marketing perspective) so F1 remains a viable means of marketing for manufacturer participants.
Mercedes benefits hugely from F1 and that's unlikely to change for the foreseeable future. There's no financial pressure on them to pull out and no real ethical one either, given they are also involved in FE and F1 is itself making huge steps on the sustainability side of things.
The 2021 regs have the potential to reinvigorate wider interest in F1 and new interest in emerging markets around the world. Personally, I think it would be short sighted of Mercedes to deny themselves the benefits that would come from this - at least until such potential can be fully seen or not.
Let’s enjoy the crappy noise we have now as it will seem like heaven when F1 E arrives.
Soon after that the cars will be driverless and then EPH will be comparing the eras again.It is possible that F1 and FE will at some point merge. It is also possible that they won't with F1 reverting to full ICE with an ethanol-based fuel which is grown from crop as Indy Car has been doing since the 90s.
Either way, don't judge the FE of 10 years time on the FE of today. It will be a very different beast.
FE provides what is at the moment, a relatively low-cost way to demonstrate technical prowess in EV but does not yet have the reach or impact of F1 (from a marketing perspective) so F1 remains a viable means of marketing for manufacturer participants.
Mercedes benefits hugely from F1 and that's unlikely to change for the foreseeable future. There's no financial pressure on them to pull out and no real ethical one either, given they are also involved in FE and F1 is itself making huge steps on the sustainability side of things.
The 2021 regs have the potential to reinvigorate wider interest in F1 and new interest in emerging markets around the world. Personally, I think it would be short sighted of Mercedes to deny themselves the benefits that would come from this - at least until such potential can be fully seen or not.
Exige77 said:
farm said:
Has anyone thought what F1 would be like in 5/10/12 years when we haven't all drowned in an overheated world and still have enough oil left to run V8 or 10s and all the EV's are looking a bit silly
Have a look at formula E and that’s your answer in 10 years.Edited by farm on Tuesday 10th December 14:51
Let’s enjoy the crappy noise we have now as it will seem like heaven when F1 E arrives.
Soon after that the cars will be driverless and then EPH will be comparing the eras again.
Either way, don't judge the FE of 10 years time on the FE of today. It will be a very different beast.
farm said:
Has anyone thought what F1 would be like in 5/10/12 years when we haven't all drowned in an overheated world and still have enough oil left to run V8 or 10s and all the EV's are looking a bit silly
The truth is... the cell technology required to make an all electric car, isn't really available yet. When it is though, based on early working cells that are produced already, an electric F1 car could be vastly superior performance wise to what we have now. Faster acceleration, lighter, smaller... There are more than a few good reasons other than oil or the environment to choose electric power if yo want to make a car intended to be extremely fast around an F1 circuit.Edited by farm on Tuesday 10th December 14:51
farm said:
Has anyone thought what F1 would be like in 5/10/12 years when we haven't all drowned in an overheated world and still have enough oil left to run V8 or 10s and all the EV's are looking a bit silly
It's not about having enough oil left rather that there are far better uses for it. I expect all the kids in cities will be more than happy with all the EV's running around rather than fume belching ICE vehicles as currently.Kraken said:
It's not about having enough oil left rather that there are far better uses for it. I expect all the kids in cities will be more than happy with all the EV's running around rather than fume belching ICE vehicles as currently.
F1 have already confirmed that the 'next big push' in development will be in relation to the fuels, which makes sense IMO.If we end up with a more sustainable fuel then it can only be good for both F1 and the development of the road car in general.
It will probably mean less restriction on fuel flow and limits in the future with F1 (which can only be a good thing) and will offer a more convenient alternative to EV's for road cars
Mercedes have an excellent team, and vast resources to divert to getting a headstart on the 2021 car with plenty of spending before the budget cap kicks in.
Then the cap kicks in and nobody can spend enough to catch up
Yes 2021 is an unknown, but they didn't fluke their way into this winning car, assuming they stay in the sport they're likely to be just as formidable a force for the new rules and they have a lot of good people with a lot of experience of how a winning team was successful.
As also mentioned above, it is a business and F1 is a marketing expense. They'll still be getting good value for money, so I'd be surprised if they opted to pull out.
Then the cap kicks in and nobody can spend enough to catch up
Yes 2021 is an unknown, but they didn't fluke their way into this winning car, assuming they stay in the sport they're likely to be just as formidable a force for the new rules and they have a lot of good people with a lot of experience of how a winning team was successful.
As also mentioned above, it is a business and F1 is a marketing expense. They'll still be getting good value for money, so I'd be surprised if they opted to pull out.
Much will depend on their marketing department.
If Merc want to project concern for the environment, a desire to reduce emissions and be nice to cats, they might well feel that F1 is a blot on their image. Their EQ range might be late to the party, but they’ll probably go all out to market it as thinking of the children. At the moment they can suggest they race with hybrid power. That’s greenwashing of course, but that will not bother them, nor their dealers.
F1 will be supported in all probability but not if it compromises the corporate image. Wait for the signals. Project One was so last year, or rather the year before that.
A quick view of their site shows EQ, EQ Boost, PHEVs, EQC and probably more.
If Merc want to project concern for the environment, a desire to reduce emissions and be nice to cats, they might well feel that F1 is a blot on their image. Their EQ range might be late to the party, but they’ll probably go all out to market it as thinking of the children. At the moment they can suggest they race with hybrid power. That’s greenwashing of course, but that will not bother them, nor their dealers.
F1 will be supported in all probability but not if it compromises the corporate image. Wait for the signals. Project One was so last year, or rather the year before that.
A quick view of their site shows EQ, EQ Boost, PHEVs, EQC and probably more.
Can’t see why success would make an F1 team ‘quit whilst they’re ahead’ and they have ‘nothing left to prove’
Did Red Bull quit after their four titles?
Or Ferrari after Schumacher’s success?
Even if you’re not winning every week, F1 is an (arguably) great marketing tool. That’s why Ferrari stay in and companies like a Renault participate.
You don’t just quit once you’ve won, you quit when you can’t afford it or justify it...
Mercedes are pretty engrained in the sport at the moment, with huge investment in the factory, engine facility, etc. I can’t imagine who has the funds to pick that up for a sensible cost, even if they wanted to sell.
You need to remember that whilst it’s best for teams to sell when they’re winning, they virtually never do as buyers only want to buy when it’s cheap - i.e they’re losing!
Did Red Bull quit after their four titles?
Or Ferrari after Schumacher’s success?
Even if you’re not winning every week, F1 is an (arguably) great marketing tool. That’s why Ferrari stay in and companies like a Renault participate.
You don’t just quit once you’ve won, you quit when you can’t afford it or justify it...
Mercedes are pretty engrained in the sport at the moment, with huge investment in the factory, engine facility, etc. I can’t imagine who has the funds to pick that up for a sensible cost, even if they wanted to sell.
You need to remember that whilst it’s best for teams to sell when they’re winning, they virtually never do as buyers only want to buy when it’s cheap - i.e they’re losing!
I think they’ll stay. I don’t think they can have the mindset of why risk losing after this long winning streak, as if they had that mentality they wouldn’t have had this long winning streak in the first place. I reckon they’re in, and they intend to win. Maybe after the next ‘cycle’ they will leave, but I don’t think this time.
Exige77 said:
Have a look at formula E and that’s your answer in 10 years.
Let’s enjoy the crappy noise we have now as it will seem like heaven when F1 E arrives.
Soon after that the cars will be driverless and then EPH will be comparing the eras again.
So which is best, when cars had people inside (yes I know it’s hard to imagine but they really did have people inside, just like early vending machines) or the current Robo E F1.
Although... If it becomes like Wipeout then I could dig that ;-)Let’s enjoy the crappy noise we have now as it will seem like heaven when F1 E arrives.
Soon after that the cars will be driverless and then EPH will be comparing the eras again.
So which is best, when cars had people inside (yes I know it’s hard to imagine but they really did have people inside, just like early vending machines) or the current Robo E F1.
TheDeuce said:
The truth is... the cell technology required to make an all electric car, isn't really available yet. When it is though, based on early working cells that are produced already, an electric F1 car could be vastly superior performance wise to what we have now. Faster acceleration, lighter, smaller... There are more than a few good reasons other than oil or the environment to choose electric power if yo want to make a car intended to be extremely fast around an F1 circuit.
Faster acceleration yes, lighter not a chance, smaller is questionable, race distance would be nowhere closeI've spent the last 3yrs working in both FE and F1 on the technology involved and IMHO it's not close enough to threaten a full EV F1 within the next 10yrs
Unless a smart, inventive company magic's up an amazing unknown battery technology technology the only thing that will change in the next 10 will be the combustion side % of the PU will go down slightly and new green fuels will be developed.
If F1 goes all electric it will no longer have the racing credibility to be called F1
As for Mercedes staying in F1, I think their commitment will reduce in line with the new cost capped rules by downsizing the team to meet the new rules. Personally I would feel quite insecure if I worked there as teams like Mercedes, Ferrari and possibly Redbull will need to shed quite a few people
For me I would say 500-600 people are needed in an F1 team the extra people on top of this just allow everything to be done in a much finer detail which adds to improving the teams chances of winning but nothing to the show for the public
Edited by marine boy on Saturday 14th December 00:38
marine boy said:
TheDeuce said:
The truth is... the cell technology required to make an all electric car, isn't really available yet. When it is though, based on early working cells that are produced already, an electric F1 car could be vastly superior performance wise to what we have now. Faster acceleration, lighter, smaller... There are more than a few good reasons other than oil or the environment to choose electric power if yo want to make a car intended to be extremely fast around an F1 circuit.
Faster acceleration yes, lighter not a chance, smaller is questionable, race distance would be nowhere closeI've spent the last 3yrs working in both FE and F1 on the technology involved and IMHO it's not close enough to threaten a full EV F1 within the next 10yrs
Unless a smart, inventive company magic's up an amazing unknown battery technology technology the only thing that will change in the next 10 will be the combustion side % of the PU will go down slightly and new green fuels will be developed.
If F1 goes all electric it will no longer have the racing credibility to be called F1
Edited by marine boy on Saturday 14th December 00:38
When it is, faster, lighter, smaller and full GP distance will be possible.
The starting point of the technology will be a cell density of at least twice the current level, and at least one company is apparently on target to produce such cells for automotive use by 2023. Other working prototypes have been shown to deliver three times the energy density of what we have today.
Niether of us can claim to tell the future, but within ten years I'd be very surprised if cell technology capable of powering and improving an F1 car doesn't exist - even if it isn't chosen for F1 use in that timeframe and/or it's not generally available or cost effective for road cars initially.
marine boy said:
Think I'll leave this Mercedes thread so you can carry on telling people how much you know about stuff you've read off the internet 
Hopefully someone will continue with a post that is more in tune with the topic
I see.. It was ok for your good self to post to disagree with something I had said, but when I do it back you claim it's taking the thread off topic and that I'm misleading people. You then finish your demonstration of rudeness by suggesting you know where I get my knowledge from - which you don't.Hopefully someone will continue with a post that is more in tune with the topic
The future of electric in both motor sport and road cars has a great deal to do with any road car manufacturers future motor sport choices. It's impossible to discuss the likelihood of Mercedes staying beyond 2020 without considering how F1 may or may not continue to be aligned with their evolving brand image for the future. The fact that the thread went off a side road to consider the viability of an all electric F1 car itself, isn't all that surprising.
Megaflow said:
Exige77 said:
The cost of F1 to Mercedes is very small. After prize money and sponsorship I heard it costs them around $30/40M per season which is not huge for the exposure the brand gets.
I think it will be another 10 years before EVs become mainstream so it’s well worth continuing for one more set of rules.
After that, I can’t see any of the car companies continuing and budgets will become tiny,
Correct. One of the websites downloaded the accounts from companies house and did the analysis. The actual cash from German is 30-40m, I cant remember if it was GBP, USD or EUR. Which when factored against the world wide exposure it gets, must be consider bargain of the century.I think it will be another 10 years before EVs become mainstream so it’s well worth continuing for one more set of rules.
After that, I can’t see any of the car companies continuing and budgets will become tiny,
Now factor in a cost cap in 2021, if the team management are sensible, that’s a very small if, they net cost to Mercedes could be nothing.
In addition to this, HPPL had revenue of £195m, which comes from leasing costs of PU to MBGPL, Racing Point and Williams, and R&D contribution from Daimler AG. However, customer team PU costs are capped by the FIA at 12m per team per season.
This would make Daimler AG's total 2018 contribution (195+38-12-12) = £209m
If they sold off the team but remained as an engine supplier then they'd still bear most of those costs but without the glory of being a winning constructor, which would tie in with this:
Graveworm said:
The one thing they have said, for sure, is that, if they leave as a constructor, they will no longer supply engines to the customer teams.
However, we also know that they have committed to supply customer F1 engines to McLaren from 2021 until at least 2024, and Williams until 2025, so where does that leave them? If Daimler decide to quit F1 and sell the team, would they also be selling the HPPL business?thegreenhell said:
However, we also know that they have committed to supply customer F1 engines to McLaren from 2021 until at least 2024, and Williams until 2025, so where does that leave them? If Daimler decide to quit F1 and sell the team, would they also be selling the HPPL business?
I would assume so based on the fact they have said they would not supply the engines if they left. In any case, if they were to leave the most likely purchaser would be another automotive co looking to repeat their success, or at least enough of it to be the best performing car maker on the grid... To do that the team would need to have design control over their own PU's so any buyer would probably want the entire package that Mercedes have benefitted from.Can't think which auto maker would want to joing F1 right now though.. But if it were to replace Mercedes I can imagine a few would give it some thought.
thegreenhell said:
Megaflow said:
Exige77 said:
The cost of F1 to Mercedes is very small. After prize money and sponsorship I heard it costs them around $30/40M per season which is not huge for the exposure the brand gets.
I think it will be another 10 years before EVs become mainstream so it’s well worth continuing for one more set of rules.
After that, I can’t see any of the car companies continuing and budgets will become tiny,
Correct. One of the websites downloaded the accounts from companies house and did the analysis. The actual cash from German is 30-40m, I cant remember if it was GBP, USD or EUR. Which when factored against the world wide exposure it gets, must be consider bargain of the century.I think it will be another 10 years before EVs become mainstream so it’s well worth continuing for one more set of rules.
After that, I can’t see any of the car companies continuing and budgets will become tiny,
Now factor in a cost cap in 2021, if the team management are sensible, that’s a very small if, they net cost to Mercedes could be nothing.
In addition to this, HPPL had revenue of £195m, which comes from leasing costs of PU to MBGPL, Racing Point and Williams, and R&D contribution from Daimler AG. However, customer team PU costs are capped by the FIA at 12m per team per season.
This would make Daimler AG's total 2018 contribution (195+38-12-12) = £209m
If they sold off the team but remained as an engine supplier then they'd still bear most of those costs but without the glory of being a winning constructor, which would tie in with this:
Graveworm said:
The one thing they have said, for sure, is that, if they leave as a constructor, they will no longer supply engines to the customer teams.
However, we also know that they have committed to supply customer F1 engines to McLaren from 2021 until at least 2024, and Williams until 2025, so where does that leave them? If Daimler decide to quit F1 and sell the team, would they also be selling the HPPL business?Gassing Station | Formula 1 | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff