Why Mercedes Will Leave F1 Before 2021
Discussion
I really can not see Daimler considering a sale of HPP if only because the vast amount of proprietary IP that would transfer in such a sale.
The value of which will be an order of magnitude greater than any sale price particularly to another automotive manufacturer.
Mercades GP without an engine supply wouldn’t have any real value as a going concern to a private buyer or another automotive manufacturer.
TBH considering that ICE is now heading towards end of life for automotive manufacturers from an R&D perspective I just can not see another automotive manufacturer wanting buy Mercedes GP if they then had to develop a new PU or the marketing capital of running the car with a Mercedes PU and say a Geeley badge on the car.
Any Mercedes exit IMHO would see closure of the team and probably HPP as well.
The value of which will be an order of magnitude greater than any sale price particularly to another automotive manufacturer.
Mercades GP without an engine supply wouldn’t have any real value as a going concern to a private buyer or another automotive manufacturer.
TBH considering that ICE is now heading towards end of life for automotive manufacturers from an R&D perspective I just can not see another automotive manufacturer wanting buy Mercedes GP if they then had to develop a new PU or the marketing capital of running the car with a Mercedes PU and say a Geeley badge on the car.
Any Mercedes exit IMHO would see closure of the team and probably HPP as well.
TheDeuce said:
jsf said:
PGN said:
I reckon Mercedes will leave F1 at the end of 2020.
No chance.
Also, it's a 'forum' You're welcome and fully entitled to bring an opinion but it's simple good manners to also give a basis for such opinion.. I'm sure many of us are very interested to understand why Mercedes leaving at the height of their achievement is so unlikely that there is 'no chance' of it happening.
10126 Torino said:
TheDeuce said:
jsf said:
PGN said:
I reckon Mercedes will leave F1 at the end of 2020.
No chance.Also, it's a 'forum' You're welcome and fully entitled to bring an opinion but it's simple good manners to also give a basis for such opinion.. I'm sure many of us are very interested to understand why Mercedes leaving at the height of their achievement is so unlikely that there is 'no chance' of it happening.
I still don't think it's unlikely that Merc will pull out once the legendary 8th title is secured and on an all time high.
They only own 1/3 of the team at this stage as it is.
10126 Torino said:
TheDeuce said:
jsf said:
PGN said:
I reckon Mercedes will leave F1 at the end of 2020.
No chance.Also, it's a 'forum' You're welcome and fully entitled to bring an opinion but it's simple good manners to also give a basis for such opinion.. I'm sure many of us are very interested to understand why Mercedes leaving at the height of their achievement is so unlikely that there is 'no chance' of it happening.
I think the thing about predictions is that they are not facts. Opinions are great if they give rise to a discussion. I'm all for them.
However, bringing the up years later, possibly to gloat?, is really worrying. There's a lot of PH posters who are vulnerable here. Some of you lot out there must be feeling vulnerable.
I write for a living and when the Gangham Style video of Psy's was hitting a bit over 100,000, I used it as an example of a possible viral video. If only that sort of thing happened when I've predicted anything in F1.
I'll bite though. I reckon that Merc might well leave as a team in 2022, although they might well remain as an engine manufacturer.
However, bringing the up years later, possibly to gloat?, is really worrying. There's a lot of PH posters who are vulnerable here. Some of you lot out there must be feeling vulnerable.
I write for a living and when the Gangham Style video of Psy's was hitting a bit over 100,000, I used it as an example of a possible viral video. If only that sort of thing happened when I've predicted anything in F1.
I'll bite though. I reckon that Merc might well leave as a team in 2022, although they might well remain as an engine manufacturer.
Derek Smith said:
I think the thing about predictions is that they are not facts. Opinions are great if they give rise to a discussion. I'm all for them.
However, bringing the up years later, possibly to gloat?, is really worrying. There's a lot of PH posters who are vulnerable here. Some of you lot out there must be feeling vulnerable.
I write for a living and when the Gangham Style video of Psy's was hitting a bit over 100,000, I used it as an example of a possible viral video. If only that sort of thing happened when I've predicted anything in F1.
I'll bite though. I reckon that Merc might well leave as a team in 2022, although they might well remain as an engine manufacturer.
It's fine Derek, I only said it wasn't 'unlikely' they would leave once Lewis had wrapped up the records etc - which I don't think was unreasonable and nor was it an outright prediction.However, bringing the up years later, possibly to gloat?, is really worrying. There's a lot of PH posters who are vulnerable here. Some of you lot out there must be feeling vulnerable.
I write for a living and when the Gangham Style video of Psy's was hitting a bit over 100,000, I used it as an example of a possible viral video. If only that sort of thing happened when I've predicted anything in F1.
I'll bite though. I reckon that Merc might well leave as a team in 2022, although they might well remain as an engine manufacturer.
Ignoring the covid factor which has obviously shifted things around, I'd still broadly say the same now as I did back then and for the same reasons. Merc have to leave sometime don't they? Naturally they would be best to leave on a high - but it would be daft to leave before the records that are within their reach are smashed.
TheDeuce said:
It's fine Derek, I only said it wasn't 'unlikely' they would leave once Lewis had wrapped up the records etc - which I don't think was unreasonable and nor was it an outright prediction.
Ignoring the covid factor which has obviously shifted things around, I'd still broadly say the same now as I did back then and for the same reasons. Merc have to leave sometime don't they? Naturally they would be best to leave on a high - but it would be daft to leave before the records that are within their reach are smashed.
i think it will be a financial decision, and much as they might like to be the record holder for various things, if it doesn't bring in money, will they really bother?Ignoring the covid factor which has obviously shifted things around, I'd still broadly say the same now as I did back then and for the same reasons. Merc have to leave sometime don't they? Naturally they would be best to leave on a high - but it would be daft to leave before the records that are within their reach are smashed.
I don't think you can ignore the Covid influence on decisions, nor that they will be hurt in addition by brexit. Merc are in F1 as a form of advertising: brand awareness. At the moment, it can be justified economically as they will know the returns to the dollar. It is probably a close run thing, although I obviously don't know the figures, and am just reporting what I've read.
There is an anti-F1 faction on the board, mainly led by the unions they say. If profits are hit by Covid, it might well increase the faction's influence.
There's a new recession on the way, there's a new trading reality, there's new all the way. I think their F1 plans are vulnerable to the financial fallout from the new norm.
Nothing is predictable, apart from the fact that Merc will follow the money.
Derek Smith said:
i think it will be a financial decision, and much as they might like to be the record holder for various things, if it doesn't bring in money, will they really bother?
I don't think you can ignore the Covid influence on decisions, nor that they will be hurt in addition by brexit. Merc are in F1 as a form of advertising: brand awareness. At the moment, it can be justified economically as they will know the returns to the dollar. It is probably a close run thing, although I obviously don't know the figures, and am just reporting what I've read.
There is an anti-F1 faction on the board, mainly led by the unions they say. If profits are hit by Covid, it might well increase the faction's influence.
There's a new recession on the way, there's a new trading reality, there's new all the way. I think their F1 plans are vulnerable to the financial fallout from the new norm.
Nothing is predictable, apart from the fact that Merc will follow the money.
Agree Derek. They are in it for the profit that the sport brings not the sport itself. I don't think you can ignore the Covid influence on decisions, nor that they will be hurt in addition by brexit. Merc are in F1 as a form of advertising: brand awareness. At the moment, it can be justified economically as they will know the returns to the dollar. It is probably a close run thing, although I obviously don't know the figures, and am just reporting what I've read.
There is an anti-F1 faction on the board, mainly led by the unions they say. If profits are hit by Covid, it might well increase the faction's influence.
There's a new recession on the way, there's a new trading reality, there's new all the way. I think their F1 plans are vulnerable to the financial fallout from the new norm.
Nothing is predictable, apart from the fact that Merc will follow the money.
Something has to change in F1 in order to keep people interested. I read somewhere that since 2014 only twice has a team outside the top 3 won a race, which is simply not what the organisers want. Lewis has had his time, and for all his unreal talent/ability, it's someone else's turn now.
I'm almost certain that Mercedes and Lewis will leave as a manufacturer at the end of the year and INEOS will move in. They're not paying 300m to have a couple of stickers on that car, Ratcliffe is moving in to make INEOS the team name.
The valuable asset in all of this really is Lewis. At the end of this year his success as an 8x time champion is worth a fortune to himself, F1 and Mercedes, particularly in the US market. As long as Mercedes keep hold of him they don't need to be in F1 to make their money, not too dissimilar to Nike and Jordan.
I'm almost certain that Mercedes and Lewis will leave as a manufacturer at the end of the year and INEOS will move in. They're not paying 300m to have a couple of stickers on that car, Ratcliffe is moving in to make INEOS the team name.
The valuable asset in all of this really is Lewis. At the end of this year his success as an 8x time champion is worth a fortune to himself, F1 and Mercedes, particularly in the US market. As long as Mercedes keep hold of him they don't need to be in F1 to make their money, not too dissimilar to Nike and Jordan.
WantSagaris said:
Something has to change in F1 in order to keep people interested. I read somewhere that since 2014 only twice has a team outside the top 3 won a race, which is simply not what the organisers want. Lewis has had his time, and for all his unreal talent/ability, it's someone else's turn now.
I'm almost certain that Mercedes and Lewis will leave as a manufacturer at the end of the year and INEOS will move in. They're not paying 300m to have a couple of stickers on that car, Ratcliffe is moving in to make INEOS the team name.
The valuable asset in all of this really is Lewis. At the end of this year his success as an 8x time champion is worth a fortune to himself, F1 and Mercedes, particularly in the US market. As long as Mercedes keep hold of him they don't need to be in F1 to make their money, not too dissimilar to Nike and Jordan.
Why would Mercedes leave if thy can make the sport virtually cost neutral?I'm almost certain that Mercedes and Lewis will leave as a manufacturer at the end of the year and INEOS will move in. They're not paying 300m to have a couple of stickers on that car, Ratcliffe is moving in to make INEOS the team name.
The valuable asset in all of this really is Lewis. At the end of this year his success as an 8x time champion is worth a fortune to himself, F1 and Mercedes, particularly in the US market. As long as Mercedes keep hold of him they don't need to be in F1 to make their money, not too dissimilar to Nike and Jordan.
Remember reading somewhere when taking into account car sales, advertising, exposure from hamilton etc etc it only costs them about £40 million to go racing each year, with the new cost cap in place Mercedes could be going racing for ‘free’
What I do see happening is Mercedes separating out the Mercedes name and running it as the performance arm under AMG rather like what DS have done with Citroen in FE and Alpine in F1.
It keeps the eco mentalists happy and the branding ‘clean’ but also gives advertisement for the performance arm to petrol heads
The cost cap was pre Covid, and Mercedes don't need to be a constructor to exploit his success. He's already causing headaches with his salary demands and it doesn't look good when Merc have just layed off 000s.
Mercedes have to play the political game too. There needs to be change in F1 or it will go stale. 8 seasons of sweeping F1 can't continue for the good of the sport, and knowing their continued success is unwelcome, why continue? Pick your battles and stay as an engine supplier.
Again, why are INEOS buying 1/3 of the team?
Mercedes have to play the political game too. There needs to be change in F1 or it will go stale. 8 seasons of sweeping F1 can't continue for the good of the sport, and knowing their continued success is unwelcome, why continue? Pick your battles and stay as an engine supplier.
Again, why are INEOS buying 1/3 of the team?
WantSagaris said:
The cost cap was pre Covid, and Mercedes don't need to be a constructor to exploit his success. He's already causing headaches with his salary demands and it doesn't look good when Merc have just layed off 000s.
Mercedes have to play the political game too. There needs to be change in F1 or it will go stale. 8 seasons of sweeping F1 can't continue for the good of the sport, and knowing their continued success is unwelcome, why continue? Pick your battles and stay as an engine supplier.
Again, why are INEOS buying 1/3 of the team?
Don’t need to be a constructor? The change in the perception of Mercedes as a brand since 2012 says otherwise....it was the same when Renault sport were winning with Alonso, Audi when they were at Le Mans etc.Mercedes have to play the political game too. There needs to be change in F1 or it will go stale. 8 seasons of sweeping F1 can't continue for the good of the sport, and knowing their continued success is unwelcome, why continue? Pick your battles and stay as an engine supplier.
Again, why are INEOS buying 1/3 of the team?
No doubt ineos are in it for the long haul, but I still don’t see Mercedes leaving.
You’re entitled to your opinion of course, as am I.....but neither of us actually know
I'm not disputing how F1 has helped Mercedes, but from here on in its high likely to see diminishing returns. People like Wolf/Lewis want to move on with their lives and nothing lasts forever.
Nothing stopping Merc returning in the future of course. My conclusion is based on putting the pieces of the puzzle together and for me I just can't see Lewis continuing for definite, and more than likely Merc will reduce their involvement.
Nothing stopping Merc returning in the future of course. My conclusion is based on putting the pieces of the puzzle together and for me I just can't see Lewis continuing for definite, and more than likely Merc will reduce their involvement.
jsf said:
They are a consumer goods manufacturer Derek.
Both P&G and Merc make the same thing; profits. They have no other product, no other function.For P&G and Merc, the bottom line is return on investment. One cannot expect anything else. Further, there will be constraints in the years to come. Merc's markets are at risk. I think the UK were in the top three for exports. Pre brexit of course. China have problems. They will need to reduce costs.
If they start reducing their German workforce, the unions will, as they have in the past, make their feelings known and demand that first they reduce spending on F1. Remember that unions have representatives on the board, as many German companies do. They do this because it helps profits.
I don't know whether they will withdraw. Perhaps the costs ceiling might reduce the likelihood, although I believe it will reduce their chances of continuing their domination, and they don't want to be one of the pack. I've read that, despite the cost cutting target for F1's management, the 2022 chances are a significant investment, one that can only be justified if it spread over years.
You said ‘No chance’ to the suggestion that they might pack it in at the end of this season. That’s a big punt, given the constraints they will face in the next and subsequent seasons, and one that cannot be justified as anything can happen. Not only that, they, and other manufacturers, have upped sticks and left in the past.
Is it likely they’ll leave? I reckon a bit less than 50% chance. Is it likely they’ll still be on the grid as a manufacturer in five years? Ten? Who can judge?
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