The Official F1 2021 silly season *contains speculation*

The Official F1 2021 silly season *contains speculation*

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Discussion

geeks

9,188 posts

139 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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Deesee said:
hehe

This would be fun..

rofl

usn90

1,419 posts

70 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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C350Akra said:
I disagree, Russell has done plenty to be worthy of the Mercedes seat. Don't forget he finished as 2018 champion in F2, ahead of Norris and Albon, Latifi was 9th.
Stoffel.V obliterated the field when he won F2 and look where he ended up....

Albons not exactly top shelf material either.

With Russel, most of the time he’s losing places at the start, and that’s starting at the back, he said himself he needs to work on this for this year.

Deesee

8,421 posts

83 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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C350Akra said:
I disagree, Russell has done plenty to be worthy of the Mercedes seat. Don't forget he finished as 2018 champion in F2, ahead of Norris and Albon, Latifi was 9th.
Yeh, but if we are looking at who beat who in the championship (more recently) and etc, Robert Kubica finished ahead in the WDC last yr, and Latifi is also ahead at present.

So on that basis I’d say to jump in and replace places 1/2 in the WDC would be a somewhat of a tall order when he’s finished behind two pay drivers in equal machinery.

Deesee

8,421 posts

83 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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Merc and Mc Merc

Never promoted

Quick Nick
Di Resta
Princess Pascal
Ocon

Following promises of a drive in the top team.

I can see Russell following the same pattern.

TheDeuce

21,579 posts

66 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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Deesee said:
C350Akra said:
I disagree, Russell has done plenty to be worthy of the Mercedes seat. Don't forget he finished as 2018 champion in F2, ahead of Norris and Albon, Latifi was 9th.
Yeh, but if we are looking at who beat who in the championship (more recently) and etc, Robert Kubica finished ahead in the WDC last yr, and Latifi is also ahead at present.

So on that basis I’d say to jump in and replace places 1/2 in the WDC would be a somewhat of a tall order when he’s finished behind two pay drivers in equal machinery.
Come on... In terms of Kubica it's quite plain that Russell is a better driver regardless of the extreme conditions that led he getting a totally unmerited point. In a car that was fast enough to actually 'earn' points, Russell would have wiped the floor with him last year! And this year he's also plainly outdriven Latifi.

He qualifies ahead and finishes races ahead.. No one would seriously rate Latifi or Kubica ahead of Russell, and using the 'stats' to demonstrate otherwise in this case is just laughable. You're better than that Deesee!

MiniMan64

16,930 posts

190 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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Am I the only one who thinks Russel has missed the boat?

Too many races trundling at the back, no seats open in midfield teams to move up to. I’d say his chance has passed.

TheInternet

4,717 posts

163 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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MiniMan64 said:
Am I the only one who thinks Russel has missed the boat?... I’d say his chance has passed.
22 year old George Russell?

MiniMan64

16,930 posts

190 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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TheInternet said:
MiniMan64 said:
Am I the only one who thinks Russel has missed the boat?... I’d say his chance has passed.
22 year old George Russell?
In F1 terms these days that’s getting on a bit without moving up.

Where do you see him going next?

TheDeuce

21,579 posts

66 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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MiniMan64 said:
Am I the only one who thinks Russel has missed the boat?

Too many races trundling at the back, no seats open in midfield teams to move up to. I’d say his chance has passed.
I don't think the staticians and decision makers look at solely a drivers points record etc. It's pretty clear that if you put any WDC in the Williams that the best they could do is beat their team mate... Maybe an occasional tussle with Seb this year. The car is such a limitation that the actual results become worthless in terms of ranking a driver. It is possible to hussle the car according to both Russell and Kubica, but it's weak aero means that pushing it is a risk.. So not exactly something that is optional given that a)points will still be very unlikely, b) the team can't seem to afford or produce spares fast enough to risk extra damage.

It is true that it's never 'good' to run around at the back, purely because the general viewer won't get excited about such a driver which does dent their commercial value to a team.

To Russells credit, the one thing he has managed to show despite the crappy car, is a high level of consistency and relatively few 'schoolboy errors' for his age. I think it's a little too soon to count him out. I'm sure he'll get at least one half decent chance before he's written off.

vaud

50,526 posts

155 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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TheDeuce said:
I don't think the staticians and decision makers look at solely a drivers points record etc.
Teams considering a major driver move will look for an array of data... both track data and estimates. I guess Merc can pressure Williams to release more data as well to judge Russell.

Team principals have a lot more than us to make a call.

TheDeuce

21,579 posts

66 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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vaud said:
TheDeuce said:
I don't think the staticians and decision makers look at solely a drivers points record etc.
Teams considering a major driver move will look for an array of data... both track data and estimates. I guess Merc can pressure Williams to release more data as well to judge Russell.

Team principals have a lot more than us to make a call.
Exactly. But even we could have sufficient data via live timing to calculate what % GR is ahead of team mates on an average fast lap etc. Most of what is needed is public. Williams could help by providing the telemetry, which I'm sure to the right pair of eyes would provide a deeper insight as to how he's driving up until the point at which he has to stop driving, and start managing the cars limitations. I'm going to guess that happens pretty soon whenever he starts to push..

Stan the Bat

8,929 posts

212 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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usn90 said:
C350Akra said:
I disagree, Russell has done plenty to be worthy of the Mercedes seat. Don't forget he finished as 2018 champion in F2, ahead of Norris and Albon, Latifi was 9th.
Stoffel.V obliterated the field when he won F2 and look where he ended up....

Albons not exactly top shelf material either.

With Russel, most of the time he’s losing places at the start, and that’s starting at the back, he said himself he needs to work on this for this year.
Albon wasn't the sort of material that I looked for on the top shelf. lick

Deesee

8,421 posts

83 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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TheDeuce said:
Come on... In terms of Kubica it's quite plain that Russell is a better driver regardless of the extreme conditions that led he getting a totally unmerited point. In a car that was fast enough to actually 'earn' points, Russell would have wiped the floor with him last year! And this year he's also plainly outdriven Latifi.

He qualifies ahead and finishes races ahead.. No one would seriously rate Latifi or Kubica ahead of Russell, and using the 'stats' to demonstrate otherwise in this case is just laughable. You're better than that Deesee!
But the WDC says different..

& in the sim a Williams Ticktum is quicker (too)..

Nothing would please me more than for Russell to get a drive in the upper midfield..

Any takers?? I’m all ears..

Racing Point, signed Vettel.. the other driver.. good luck

Mc Merc, signed Dani Ric.. Lando has more than held his own..(and possibly been signed by Toto)..

Renault, signed his lordship.. Gasly will follow.

So no, let’s look at the lower midfield..

Alpha T, hmm? (Perhaps) if they get rid of Dani K, and Albon.., Tsunoda more likely to follow..

Alfa, that’s taken, it’s Mick and Kimi for now..

Hass, well that’s a Renault flavour from 2025, (after the Russian flavour from 2021 with Mazipans dad buying it), no drive here..

Williams, are now run as a business rather than a hobby so looks like checo and Latifi in the interim..as they will pay the bills..

Front runners..

Ferrari, CLC and Carlos, that’s good for 3 seasons..

Red Bull, Max and Hulk (it’s done wink )..

Merc, Bottas + Lewis, Lewis will do 2 more yrs minimum.. & you don’t break up a winning team..



TheDeuce

21,579 posts

66 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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Deesee said:
TheDeuce said:
Come on... In terms of Kubica it's quite plain that Russell is a better driver regardless of the extreme conditions that led he getting a totally unmerited point. In a car that was fast enough to actually 'earn' points, Russell would have wiped the floor with him last year! And this year he's also plainly outdriven Latifi.

He qualifies ahead and finishes races ahead.. No one would seriously rate Latifi or Kubica ahead of Russell, and using the 'stats' to demonstrate otherwise in this case is just laughable. You're better than that Deesee!
But the WDC says different..

& in the sim a Williams Ticktum is quicker (too)..

Nothing would please me more than for Russell to get a drive in the upper midfield..

Any takers?? I’m all ears..

Racing Point, signed Vettel.. the other driver.. good luck

Mc Merc, signed Dani Ric.. Lando has more than held his own..(and possibly been signed by Toto)..

Renault, signed his lordship.. Gasly will follow.

So no, let’s look at the lower midfield..

Alpha T, hmm? (Perhaps) if they get rid of Dani K, and Albon.., Tsunoda more likely to follow..

Alfa, that’s taken, it’s Mick and Kimi for now..

Hass, well that’s a Renault flavour from 2025, (after the Russian flavour from 2021 with Mazipans dad buying it), no drive here..

Williams, are now run as a business rather than a hobby so looks like checo and Latifi in the interim..as they will pay the bills..

Front runners..

Ferrari, CLC and Carlos, that’s good for 3 seasons..

Red Bull, Max and Hulk (it’s done wink )..

Merc, Bottas + Lewis, Lewis will do 2 more yrs minimum.. & you don’t break up a winning team..
I'm not saying it's all rosy with regards to openings for Russell... I'm just making the point that him being beaten by entirely circumstantial WDC stats won't sway any future decisions in the slightest. On merit he's clearly bested both team mates. Anyone who can give him a better drive has a very decent chance of him continuing that trend.

Points are proof etc etc but only when the car concerned can fight for points, not occasionally happen upon a single point when everyone else has crashed off.

Deesee

8,421 posts

83 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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TheDeuce said:
I'm not saying it's all rosy with regards to openings for Russell... I'm just making the point that him being beaten by entirely circumstantial WDC stats won't sway any future decisions in the slightest. On merit he's clearly bested both team mates. Anyone who can give him a better drive has a very decent chance of him continuing that trend.

Points are proof etc etc but only when the car concerned can fight for points, not occasionally happen upon a single point when everyone else has crashed off.
There’s two teams slower than the Williams this year, the data shows this

He’s a decent qualifier, good one lap pace but should he have made Q2.. perhaps once or twice? he has not..

Race results he goes backwards, (and starts at the back of the grid)..

Kmag/Grosgean/Kimi/Giovinazzi are getting the better of him in a slower cars and scoring much needed WDC points over the season. (3/4 of these will not have a drive next year).

Running a tyre test and running decent times in it are one thing, in the thick of it of a season (or two) in a 300 + kilometres Grand Prix he’s come up short.. (30+ times).

This is the piranha club, the quick and the dead..


Nampahc Niloc

910 posts

78 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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What data shows that?

ch37

10,642 posts

221 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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Vandoorne has been used as a counterpoint to drivers coming up having performed well in lower formulae, but I still think he would have easily been a very decent F1 driver if circumstances didn't play out how they did. The team at that time, his teammate, none of that would have helped at all.

I know you make your own luck but timing is a big factor. Russell's trajectory could easily been that of LeClerc had the whole Rosberg/Bottas situation not happen when it did. If buts and maybes, but considering some of the drivers on the grid I think its hard to find a good angle to suggest that Russell doesn't deserve a midfield seat at the very least.

Regarding his race pace, I don't believe it can solely be driver error every single race. The car seems reasonable in Quali on low fuel so he/the car certainly has one lap pace in the right conditions, but as a race day car it consistently drops down behind those that it can out qualify (in Russell's hands). If they had two Latifi's we probably wouldn't even know that it's a car capable of some Q2s this season.

Edited by ch37 on Friday 23 October 20:55

TheDeuce

21,579 posts

66 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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Deesee said:
TheDeuce said:
I'm not saying it's all rosy with regards to openings for Russell... I'm just making the point that him being beaten by entirely circumstantial WDC stats won't sway any future decisions in the slightest. On merit he's clearly bested both team mates. Anyone who can give him a better drive has a very decent chance of him continuing that trend.

Points are proof etc etc but only when the car concerned can fight for points, not occasionally happen upon a single point when everyone else has crashed off.
There’s two teams slower than the Williams this year, the data shows this

He’s a decent qualifier, good one lap pace but should he have made Q2.. perhaps once or twice? he has not..

Race results he goes backwards, (and starts at the back of the grid)..

Kmag/Grosgean/Kimi/Giovinazzi are getting the better of him in a slower cars and scoring much needed WDC points over the season. (3/4 of these will not have a drive next year).

Running a tyre test and running decent times in it are one thing, in the thick of it of a season (or two) in a 300 + kilometres Grand Prix he’s come up short.. (30+ times).

This is the piranha club, the quick and the dead..
You're starting to make more sense now...

A characteristic of the Williams is crappy tyre management, it's an unpredictable car. So sure, in quali it's decent but through the course of a race according to both Russell and Kubica it's an unpredictable nightmare to pilot.

I'm not making excuses for him though, I fully accept that he may be missing some ingredients to actually progress if he gets a decent drive - I'm just saying we don't know yet.

And my main point was and remains that saying Kubica would be judged superior based on his circumstantial one point last year is just daft. No one considering signing Russell would say "hold on, Kubica scored more points in 2019, lets have him".. My point is that at the dead end of the grid the occasional freak result is not worthy of consideration. Anyone with a spare seat would look far deeper than such nonsense stats ahead of filling it.

Deesee

8,421 posts

83 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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Nampahc Niloc said:
What data shows that?
The GPS/lap delta data, it was shown in FP1 today.

TheDeuce

21,579 posts

66 months

Friday 23rd October 2020
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Deesee said:
Nampahc Niloc said:
What data shows that?
The GPS/lap delta data, it was shown in FP1 today.
We don't know what they were doing in FP, same as ever. Quali is as representative of a drivers speed as we can get - but that's also the car at it's prime, we have no real metric of how far each car deteriorates in terms of driveability through a race.. Race pace can perpetually be affected by other factors and how the car reacts to them for an extended period. You're good at the data following Deesee, but sometimes you have to get out of the numbers and consider what can't be calculated too! The Williams is an awful car with a stellar engine, of course it can punch above a little in quali but I really don't think it can manage tyres for a race distance or behave at all predictably around other cars.