The Official F1 2022 silly season *contains speculation*

[Deesee]

thegreenhell said:

Deesee said:

Dani gained 11 race positions from grid to flag, Esteban gained 29 net positions (9 at Sakhir) on classified finishes, only twice did he finish below his starting grid position.

It's easier to overtake when there are more cars starting ahead of you because you qualified badly. Ric had to do less overtaking to finish comfortably ahead of Ocon.

Im not sure easier is necessarily the correct term, but yes he would have had more 'opportunity' starting behind other cars that were closer in performance to the Renault, the Renault was at best the 5/6th best car on the grid last year, and perhaps in the 2nd half of the season they were closer matched to AT (7th), than say Racing Point (4th).

Dani drove great through the entire season IMO, between him Checo and Gasly they had unbelievable consistency through the entire season, I promise ill stop my semi constant ramblings about Ocon's second half of the 2020 season!

[TwentyFive]

I would think that Mercedes 2022 will be Hamilton and Russell. Then I imagine that once Lewis retires, Mercedes will swoop in for Verstappen.

I can't see Bottas going back to Williams as some suggest. He said himself recently that other motorsports are appealing to him so I wonder he will be off to go rallying like Kimi did?

Maybe Red Bull would look at Bottas? Multiple race winner, brings inside knowledge of Mercedes? Would play nicely alongside Max.

I presume the second Red Bull seat will come down to how Tsunoda performs. I suspect that Perez will get extended for another year into 2022 and will be kept on one year deals until Tsundoa is ready. Red Bull have moved drivers up at the wrong time too often now and the Perez signing confirms they know it.

[kambites]

TwentyFive said:

I would think that Mercedes 2022 will be Hamilton and Russell. Then I imagine that once Lewis retires, Mercedes will swoop in for Verstappen.

I don't think Mercedes would want Russell and Verstappen together for the same reason they've prefered to keep Bottas alongside Hamilton rather then replacing him with Russell already.

[TwentyFive]

kambites said:

TwentyFive said:

I would think that Mercedes 2022 will be Hamilton and Russell. Then I imagine that once Lewis retires, Mercedes will swoop in for Verstappen.

I don't think Mercedes would want Russell and Verstappen together for the same reason they've prefered to keep Bottas alongside Hamilton rather then replacing him with Russell already.

I understand why some may see it that way. My view comes from the logic that once Lewis leaves, it may well be better for Mercedes to have the one guy who is always right there with Hamilton on pace in their own car rather than a rival one. I think once Lewis departs, it may well become clear just how much difference he really made over a season and without that buffer Max will become a bigger problem for Mercedes than he already sometimes is.

I suspect Russell would have been in a Mercedes alongside Hamilton this year if Claire Williams hadn't been so firm on the Russell seeing out the 3 year deal. I think it was around Hungary time last season that it was all playing out? My grasp on it from reading between the lines was that Russell felt like Williams stopped him getting the move to Merc by enforcing the final year of his Williams contract.

It was no coincidence to me that just four short weeks after Russell said 'my future is in Claire's hands' that they announced Bottas for another year. I read that as Mercedes wanted Russell for 2021, Williams said no, so they switfly re-signed Bottas. Maybe I am way off but I felt that was the case at the time and still do. They were ready to swap them, but Williams spoiled the plan. They are not afraid of putting George with Lewis.

[EDLT]

Hamilton to Ferrari, for real this time.

[TheDeuce]

EDLT said:

Hamilton to Ferrari, for real this time.

Why would he want to do that, certainly ahead of seeing how good a job Mercedes make of the 22' car

Perhaps they could try the Claire Williams invite: "Come on drive for us Lewis, you must be bored of winning".

[resolve10]

I can't see Lewis taking a risk at this stage in his career. I think come 2022 he'll either be at Merc or on the sidelines.

If he did make a move, I reckon Red Bull or McLaren would be more likely destinations than Ferrari.

[TheDeuce]

resolve10 said:

I can't see Lewis taking a risk at this stage in his career. I think come 2022 he'll either be at Merc or on the sidelines.

If he did make a move, I reckon Red Bull or McLaren would be more likely destinations than Ferrari.

The obvious 22' choice is to stay at Merc - he can't possibly know who will make the best fist of the 22' challenger until it's on the track, but it's likely Merc will have done a top job - purely due to their budget and efforts towards the new spec for 2-3 years now. It's not a guarantee they'll have the best car still... but it's the sort of situation where it's safer to stick than fold.

Obviously if someone else does take a leap forward in 22, he might feel somewhat different about who he drives for in the 23' season... But realistically, he can probably walk in to just about any seat on the grid if he chooses - he doesn't need to think or worry about that now.

[resolve10]

TheDeuce said:

The obvious 22' choice is to stay at Merc - he can't possibly know who will make the best fist of the 22' challenger until it's on the track, but it's likely Merc will have done a top job - purely due to their budget and efforts towards the new spec for 2-3 years now. It's not a guarantee they'll have the best car still... but it's the sort of situation where it's safer to stick than fold.

Obviously if someone else does take a leap forward in 22, he might feel somewhat different about who he drives for in the 23' season... But realistically, he can probably walk in to just about any seat on the grid if he chooses - he doesn't need to think or worry about that now.

Yeah, I guess the question would be whether he would have the hunger at 38 to walk into a new team with a new car, new systems and new engineers. He wouldn't have anything to prove, unless he fancies winning a title with 3 different teams!

[TheDeuce]

resolve10 said:

Yeah, I guess the question would be whether he would have the hunger at 38 to walk into a new team with a new car, new systems and new engineers. He wouldn't have anything to prove, unless he fancies winning a title with 3 different teams!

That's about the size of it - it's fascinating to us to imagine what he 'might' do, but in all probability he'll stay at Merc until somewhere else outdoes their car. Why would he not? And beyond this season he's (likely) going to remain unbeaten for way past an age he could actually still compete in F1. He can walk anytime and very well may do.

I suspect we spend more time worrying about his future than he does! I have no problem believing him when he states he takes it one race, one season at a time. Makes complete sense to me..

[SpudLink]

EDLT said:

Hamilton to Ferrari, for real this time.

I would be less surprised if Vettel starts 2022 as reigning WDC.
Hamilton is NOT going to sign for Ferrari.

[vulture1]

SpudLink said:

EDLT said:

Hamilton to Ferrari, for real this time.

I would be less surprised if Vettel starts 2022 as reigning WDC.
Hamilton is NOT going to sign for Ferrari.

On that point of Vettel being mentioned on page 3 of this thread it shows now that he really is not considered one of the top tier drivers.

[TwentyFive]

vulture1 said:

On that point of Vettel being mentioned on page 3 of this thread it shows now that he really is not considered one of the top tier drivers.

I think that's more down to the fact that he is already signed up for 2022, so is unlikely to be a player in the market unless something changes.

[Deesee]

3rd most successful driver of all time not top tier..?

[SpudLink]

vulture1 said:

On that point of Vettel being mentioned on page 3 of this thread it shows now that he really is not considered one of the top tier drivers.

Deesee said:

3rd most successful driver of all time not top tier..?

I’ve emphasised the word ‘now’ in vulture1‘s comment.
Vettel was certainly considered top tier by many people (not all) for many years. But now that isn’t the overriding view of where he is in the pecking order.

[Deesee]

SpudLink said:

vulture1 said:

On that point of Vettel being mentioned on page 3 of this thread it shows now that he really is not considered one of the top tier drivers.

Deesee said:

3rd most successful driver of all time not top tier..?

I’ve emphasised the word ‘now’ in vulture1‘s comment.
Vettel was certainly considered top tier by many people (not all) for many years. But now that isn’t the overriding view of where he is in the pecking order.

Ok, devil’s advocate, I’d say he’s top 5 on the grid presently, where’s the overriding view of where Seb is then?

[HustleRussell]

Deesee said:

Ok, devil’s advocate, I’d say he’s top 5 on the grid presently, where’s the overriding view of where Seb is then?

It is obviously tough to argue that he’s top 5 on the grid presently based on last year alone, and you have to bear in mind that many people will tend to do just that.

Even experienced pundits can be heard to say that “you’re only as good as your last race”, so it depends on to what extent you subscribe to that view.

The very top drivers simply don’t wilt the way that Vettel does when things aren’t going his way.

For the removal of any ambiguity I would say that Vettel is no better than 4th best driver presently. I do not believe he is better than Alonso or Hamilton, I am increasingly certain that Verstappen also is better, and a strong case can be made for Ricciardo.

[Deesee]

HustleRussell said:

Deesee said:

Ok, devil’s advocate, I’d say he’s top 5 on the grid presently, where’s the overriding view of where Seb is then?

It is obviously tough to argue that he’s top 5 on the grid presently based on last year alone, and you have to bear in mind that many people will tend to do just that.

Even experienced pundits can be heard to say that “you’re only as good as your last race”, so it depends on to what extent you subscribe to that view.

The very top drivers simply don’t wilt the way that Vettel does when things aren’t going his way.

For the removal of any ambiguity I would say that Vettel is no better than 4th best driver presently. I do not believe he is better than Alonso or Hamilton, I am increasingly certain that Verstappen also is better, and a strong case can be made for Ricciardo.

Agreed with LH, FA, and the ascension of MV (even of Quali performance alone).

CLC makes up my 5.

With a very strong tier 1.5 of Dani, Checo and Sainz.

Seb was certainly switched off last year.

[TwentyFive]

Deesee said:

Ok, devil’s advocate, I’d say he’s top 5 on the grid presently, where’s the overriding view of where Seb is then?

In my view he is probably 6th or at worst 8th.

Hamilton, Verstappen, Ricciardo, Alonso, Leclerc would be ahead of him for me.

two of those five also beat him as direct teammates.

Perez/Sainz could also arguably claim to be ahead of Seb too.

[Deesee]

TwentyFive said:

Deesee said:

Ok, devil’s advocate, I’d say he’s top 5 on the grid presently, where’s the overriding view of where Seb is then?

In my view he is probably 6th or at worst 8th.

Hamilton, Verstappen, Ricciardo, Alonso, Leclerc would be ahead of him for me.

two of those five also beat him as direct teammates.

Perez/Sainz could also arguably claim to be ahead of Seb too.

The thing with Dani, I still can’t fathom walking away from a top team at your best years, (I understand the money), I don’t think he will ever get another top drive, he had a great 2020 and is a great driver, but unless there’s some seismic change in the balance of the grid and McLaren having a ‘dominant’ car grabbing 2/3 podiums a year is the best he can do now & he would do that in the Renault or the McLaren IMO.