Valtteri Bottas at Mercedes

[Petrus1983]

Agreed Flooble - zero chance of a mid season change.

[Sandpit Steve]

Petrus1983 said:

My view may have already been mentioned - but my worry for VB is that until now LH has needed a team mate he can convincingly beat, the Mercedes has been so dominant over the last few years that’s all that was needed. This year maybe different - Lewis is almost certainly going to need a proper wingman as the Red Bulls are so close, and Ferrari/McLaren aren’t that far behind. Valtteri isn’t upto that role - and Lewis may regret not having a stronger guy in the 2nd seat this year.

I know it’s an unpopular view, but Lewis has a much better team mate than any of his competitors. Three podium finishes from five races. The two non-podium finishes were both DNFs, neither were his fault and one of them, last weekend, would have been another podium.

[Gad-Westy]

Petrus1983 said:

Agreed Flooble - zero chance of a mid season change.

I'm slightly more on the fence about this. It doesn't seem Merc's style at all but I don't think they've ever really been on the back foot so ever never had to make the tough decisions. Even when Ferrari were chomping at their heels, I think they still looked relatively comfortable. It's a big 'if' but if RB built up some sort of cushion in the CC, I don't think it's impossible that they would do something so drastic.

More likely though (using my crystal ball) is that we'll hit a few tracks that suit Merc a little better and they'll build up a little bit of a lead in the CC with VB generally finishing ahead of SP, doing just enough and normal service will resume.

[Muzzer79]

Gad-Westy said:

Petrus1983 said:

Agreed Flooble - zero chance of a mid season change.

I'm slightly more on the fence about this. It doesn't seem Merc's style at all but I don't think they've ever really been on the back foot so ever never had to make the tough decisions. Even when Ferrari were chomping at their heels, I think they still looked relatively comfortable. It's a big 'if' but if RB built up some sort of cushion in the CC, I don't think it's impossible that they would do something so drastic.

More likely though (using my crystal ball) is that we'll hit a few tracks that suit Merc a little better and they'll build up a little bit of a lead in the CC with VB generally finishing ahead of SP, doing just enough and normal service will resume.

Mercedes are not on the back foot now......before the most recent race (at a unique track) they were ahead in both championships.

Changing a driver mid-season is far more riskier than keeping the driver you have, unless that driver is binning it every race or finishing out of the points every race.

[Gad-Westy]

Muzzer79 said:

Gad-Westy said:

Petrus1983 said:

Agreed Flooble - zero chance of a mid season change.

I'm slightly more on the fence about this. It doesn't seem Merc's style at all but I don't think they've ever really been on the back foot so ever never had to make the tough decisions. Even when Ferrari were chomping at their heels, I think they still looked relatively comfortable. It's a big 'if' but if RB built up some sort of cushion in the CC, I don't think it's impossible that they would do something so drastic.

More likely though (using my crystal ball) is that we'll hit a few tracks that suit Merc a little better and they'll build up a little bit of a lead in the CC with VB generally finishing ahead of SP, doing just enough and normal service will resume.

Mercedes are not on the back foot now......before the most recent race (at a unique track) they were ahead in both championships.

Changing a driver mid-season is far more riskier than keeping the driver you have, unless that driver is binning it every race or finishing out of the points every race.

Well strictly speaking, they're on the back foot now. They're behind. But that wasn't really what I was getting it as it's early days for this season still. But we all assume they wouldn't do anything drastic because they never have. But they've never had to. Things might change.

[Jasandjules]

I can't help but feel that Bottas is out a the end of this season and Russel is in.. Certainly based upon some of the comments in the press (which of course we can not say for certain ((I won't say "for sure")) are true)

[Smollet]

Jasandjules said:

I can't help but feel that Bottas is out a the end of this season and Russel is in.. Certainly based upon some of the comments in the press (which of course we can not say for certain ((I won't say "for sure")) are true)

For sure

[Evanivitch]

Sandpit Steve said:

I know it’s an unpopular view, but Lewis has a much better team mate than any of his competitors. Three podium finishes from five races. The two non-podium finishes were both DNFs, neither were his fault and one of them, last weekend, would have been another podium.

I don't think it's an unpopular view, I think it's a pretty clear fact. VB has been unlucky already this season which only builds on much of the badluck he had in 2020. I know some of this is about race management and not always driving the car at the limit, but it does seem somewhat random events are always against him!

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/the-bad-luck-tha...

[Teddy Lop]

Evanivitch said:

I don't think it's an unpopular view, I think it's a pretty clear fact. VB has been unlucky already this season which only builds on much of the badluck he had in 2020. I know some of this is about race management and not always driving the car at the limit, but it does seem somewhat random events are always against him!

https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/the-bad-luck-tha...

Bad luck my perk backside. Sure there's some instances you can point to but Bottas lost the title through being comprehensively out driven. Lewis had the title with what 5 races to go, bottas didn't secure second from max until the last race, there was 5 race wins worth of points between them and with Lewis missing an event.

The most annoying aspect of leclercs issues last weekend was I was hoping to see a tussle at the front... With bottle you just knew it wasnt gonna happen.

[Evanivitch]

Teddy Lop said:

Bad luck my perk backside. Sure there's some instances you can point to but Bottas lost the title through being comprehensively out driven. Lewis had the title with what 5 races to go, bottas didn't secure second from max until the last race, there was 5 race wins worth of points between them and with Lewis missing an event.

The most annoying aspect of leclercs issues last weekend was I was hoping to see a tussle at the front... With bottle you just knew it wasnt gonna happen.

I'm not suggesting that Bottas would or should have won the championship, I know the article is written from that angle.

Only that Bottas' championship position (and his impact on Hamilton's rivals) throughout last season and already into this season has been impacted by rotten luck.

[anonymous-user]

I think all the while Mercedes were massively ahead of Red Bull and Lewis easily won the championship each year Bottas got away with it. Just by driving around and finishing, Bottas would get enough points so Mercedes won the constructors title as well.

We are currently in a situation where Max is leading the championship and Red Bull are leading the constructors title. Lewis has got a fight on his hands this season and Mercedes need a driver who can compete with Max and make life more difficult for him.

I am sure Lewis loves having a team mate who doesn't challenge him too hard, but as we have seen time and time again, this is no use when he is up against a driver like Max. Plus Max has seriously upped his game and no longer makes the stupid mistakes he used to make at the start of his career.

If Perez does a better job than Bottas of being the first Red Bull/Mercedes car to finish after Max and Lewis I can see the championship slipping away from Mercedes hands.

I think Mercedes would be crazy to keep Bottas next year over George.

[LaurasOtherHalf]

Doesn’t look like any main stream media are picking it up but the Russian commentator on F1 has tweeted that Bottas and Russel are to swap with Russel getting a two year deal at Mercedes.

Usual caveats on Russian tweets naturally!

[Mr Pointy]

LaurasOtherHalf said:

Doesn’t look like any main stream media are picking it up but the Russian commentator on F1 has tweeted that Bottas and Russel are to swap with Russel getting a two year deal at Mercedes.

Usual caveats on Russian tweets naturally!

I'm not sure why Bottas would agree to that unless he's getting an absolute barrowload of money to go from the almost-best to the almost-worst car on the grid.

[thegreenhell]

There's a major rules change coming next year, so nobody knows what he form book will be. Although it's likely that Mercedes will still be somewhere near the front, there is always the possibility of a team currently near the back making a major jump forwards.

Still, I think it would be premature for Bottas to sign for any non-works team this early in the silly season, when it's still possible that other seats could open up.

[ettore]

thegreenhell said:

There's a major rules change coming next year, so nobody knows what he form book will be. Although it's likely that Mercedes will still be somewhere near the front, there is always the possibility of a team currently near the back making a major jump forwards.

Still, I think it would be premature for Bottas to sign for any non-works team this early in the silly season, when it's still possible that other seats could open up.

How many other seats (that are materially better than Williams) will open up though? Ferrari, McLaren, Aston all done, Perez replacement highly unlikely, Alpine pretty much done, Alpha/ Alfa ?

[Muzzer79]

Joey Deacon said:

I think all the while Mercedes were massively ahead of Red Bull and Lewis easily won the championship each year Bottas got away with it. Just by driving around and finishing, Bottas would get enough points so Mercedes won the constructors title as well.

We are currently in a situation where Max is leading the championship and Red Bull are leading the constructors title. Lewis has got a fight on his hands this season and Mercedes need a driver who can compete with Max and make life more difficult for him.

I am sure Lewis loves having a team mate who doesn't challenge him too hard, but as we have seen time and time again, this is no use when he is up against a driver like Max. Plus Max has seriously upped his game and no longer makes the stupid mistakes he used to make at the start of his career.

If Perez does a better job than Bottas of being the first Red Bull/Mercedes car to finish after Max and Lewis I can see the championship slipping away from Mercedes hands.

I think Mercedes would be crazy to keep Bottas next year over George.

I think you're wrong.

Joey Deacon said:

I think all the while Mercedes were massively ahead of Red Bull and Lewis easily won the championship each year Bottas got away with it. Just by driving around and finishing, Bottas would get enough points so Mercedes won the constructors title as well.

"Got away with it?"
"Just driving around and finishing"

Bottas has driven 84 races for Mercedes. He has finished on the podium in nearly 60% of them. (His 7 x WDC team mate has a 77% record of podiums for the same period, with better reliability)

Joey Deacon said:

IMercedes need a driver who can compete with Max and make life more difficult for him.

No they don't.

They need a driver who can compete with Perez and pick up the pieces if Max and Lewis interfere with each other.

Joey Deacon said:

If Perez does a better job than Bottas of being the first Red Bull/Mercedes car to finish after Max and Lewis I can see the championship slipping away from Mercedes hands.

Indeed. However, Bottas was comfortably ahead of Perez up to Monaco, despite his crash in Imola, until the wheelnut thing - which is obviously not his fault.

There's nothing to say that he won't do the job for the rest of the year.

Joey Deacon said:

I think Mercedes would be crazy to keep Bottas next year over George.

FWIW, I would take George for next year too but only because they need to plan now for Hamilton's impending retirement.

Not because Bottas isn't performing - because in fact, he is.

[thegreenhell]

ettore said:

How many other seats (that are materially better than Williams) will open up though? Ferrari, McLaren, Aston all done, Perez replacement highly unlikely, Alpine pretty much done, Alpha/ Alfa ?

Bearing in mind this is silly season, so wild theories abound, I was specifically thinking of the following:

Aston Martin - if Vettel continues with his annus horribilis then he might decide to call it quits, or that decision might be made for him. Bottas, with all his Mercedes experience, would be a natural to plug straight into the Mercedes clone team.

Alpine - Ocon, IIRC, does not yet have a contract for next year. We know that Alonso is temperamental, and if he fails to get on top of Ocon and the car then he might yet decide that his comeback is fruitless. We also know that Renault/Alpine came very close to signing Bottas last year before signing Alonso, so he could be seen as a potential replacement for either.

Alfa Romeo - Raikonnen must surely be close to retirement soon. There are also strong rumours that Alfa will not continue their sponsorship with Sauber next year, freeing them up for a tie-in with another manufacturer. It is reported that Renault are looking for a sub team for their PU, so this would be a potential fit. Also, with Giovinazzi being a Ferrari driver, if they swapped to Renault then he could be out, whether Kimi retires or not.

It's still very early, and a lot could happen in the driver market before the end of the year.

[anonymous-user]

thegreenhell said:

Bearing in mind this is silly season, so wild theories abound, I was specifically thinking of the following:

Aston Martin - if Vettel continues with his annus horribilis then he might decide to call it quits, or that decision might be made for him. Bottas, with all his Mercedes experience, would be a natural to plug straight into the Mercedes clone team.

Alpine - Ocon, IIRC, does not yet have a contract for next year. We know that Alonso is temperamental, and if he fails to get on top of Ocon and the car then he might yet decide that his comeback is fruitless. We also know that Renault/Alpine came very close to signing Bottas last year before signing Alonso, so he could be seen as a potential replacement for either.

Alfa Romeo - Raikonnen must surely be close to retirement soon. There are also strong rumours that Alfa will not continue their sponsorship with Sauber next year, freeing them up for a tie-in with another manufacturer. It is reported that Renault are looking for a sub team for their PU, so this would be a potential fit. Also, with Giovinazzi being a Ferrari driver, if they swapped to Renault then he could be out, whether Kimi retires or not.

It's still very early, and a lot could happen in the driver market before the end of the year.

I agree, Raikonnen, Alonso and Vettel (In that order) are the drivers I least expect to see on the grid in 2022.

[nickfrog]

Joey Deacon said:

I agree, Raikonnen, Alonso and Vettel (In that order) are the drivers I least expect to see on the grid in 2022.

I would love to see Pourchaire take Raikonnen's seat. Move over grumpy old git.

[Teddy Lop]

thegreenhell said:

Bearing in mind this is silly season, so wild theories abound, I was specifically thinking of the following:

Aston Martin - if Vettel continues with his annus horribilis then he might decide to call it quits, or that decision might be made for him. Bottas, with all his Mercedes experience, would be a natural to plug straight into the Mercedes clone team.

Alpine - Ocon, IIRC, does not yet have a contract for next year. We know that Alonso is temperamental, and if he fails to get on top of Ocon and the car then he might yet decide that his comeback is fruitless. We also know that Renault/Alpine came very close to signing Bottas last year before signing Alonso, so he could be seen as a potential replacement for either.

Alfa Romeo - Raikonnen must surely be close to retirement soon. There are also strong rumours that Alfa will not continue their sponsorship with Sauber next year, freeing them up for a tie-in with another manufacturer. It is reported that Renault are looking for a sub team for their PU, so this would be a potential fit. Also, with Giovinazzi being a Ferrari driver, if they swapped to Renault then he could be out, whether Kimi retires or not.

It's still very early, and a lot could happen in the driver market before the end of the year.

Dunno about Aston, for my money bottas would derail the stroll jnr machine, I think he's better able to do this right now than vettel. It would say a lot about the team..

Alpine - it's Alonso. Anything could happen, for sure.

For all bottas faults he still has speed to eclipse Lewis on occasion and he's still had 3rd place at every event except when he's had misfortune. Given the quality of the fight in front of him on those occasions we should not dismiss his value to any team with ambitions of titles even if we fans would prefer someone more exciting... Never mind the perception that he's someone whose been inside the GOAT (team) and seen how it works. For that reason I wouldn't even rule out the no2 seat at RB.