The Official F1 2023 silly season *contains speculation*

[C70R]

samoht said:

rallycross said:

Going many steps back what the hell were McLaren paying him that sort or salary anyway ? They have no money and he’s never come close to winning a championship .... a crazy deal

That's hindsight bias I think.

Wind the clock back to the start of the 2020 season when the deal was done. McLaren were just slogging out of years of backmarkery. They'd just finished in the top half of the table for the first time in five years. Their only experienced driver, the guy who had scored 96 of their 145 championship points in that 2019 season, lets them know he's off to Italy.

They need a talented and experienced driver to pair with rookie Lando. Max, Lewis and Charles are already taken. They'd already done Alonso, twice. Who do you get - Vettel, or the guy who made Vettel look slow when they were in identical machinery? The guy who'd only lost out to Max as a team-mate, and then only narrowly?


https://the-race.com/formula-1/mark-hughes-on-ricc...

Under the circumstances, McLaren needed a good experienced race-winning driver, and they didn't have a lot of options, so they had to pay top money for Ricciardo.

At the time, no-one was predicting he'd be shown up by Lando - most people anticipated the reverse would occur, if anything.

Sometimes in life you make a decision, and it's the best decision you could have made with the information you had at the time, but it still doesn't work out. st happens.
When that does happen, it's no use beating yourself up about it, just accept the situation, deal with it, and move on. Which is exactly what McLaren have done.

Couldn't have explained it better. When you look at the teammates that he's beaten comfortably, it's not a list of fast drivers at their peak...

[McAndy]

C70R said:

samoht said:

rallycross said:

Going many steps back what the hell were McLaren paying him that sort or salary anyway ? They have no money and he’s never come close to winning a championship .... a crazy deal

That's hindsight bias I think.

Wind the clock back to the start of the 2020 season when the deal was done. McLaren were just slogging out of years of backmarkery. They'd just finished in the top half of the table for the first time in five years. Their only experienced driver, the guy who had scored 96 of their 145 championship points in that 2019 season, lets them know he's off to Italy.

They need a talented and experienced driver to pair with rookie Lando. Max, Lewis and Charles are already taken. They'd already done Alonso, twice. Who do you get - Vettel, or the guy who made Vettel look slow when they were in identical machinery? The guy who'd only lost out to Max as a team-mate, and then only narrowly?


https://the-race.com/formula-1/mark-hughes-on-ricc...

Under the circumstances, McLaren needed a good experienced race-winning driver, and they didn't have a lot of options, so they had to pay top money for Ricciardo.

At the time, no-one was predicting he'd be shown up by Lando - most people anticipated the reverse would occur, if anything.

Sometimes in life you make a decision, and it's the best decision you could have made with the information you had at the time, but it still doesn't work out. st happens.
When that does happen, it's no use beating yourself up about it, just accept the situation, deal with it, and move on. Which is exactly what McLaren have done.

Couldn't have explained it better. When you look at the teammates that he's beaten comfortably, it's not a list of fast drivers at their peak...

A very useful graphic, thank you.

[cgt2]

I'm far less interested in yesterday's men than what Piastri will potentially do in a head to head with Norris. That is a really exciting prospect!

[cgt2]

samoht said:

At the time, no-one was predicting he'd be shown up by Lando - most people anticipated the reverse would occur, if anything.

Sounds like 2007 to me... same team too!

[PhilAsia]

cgt2 said:

I'm far less interested in yesterday's men than what Piastri will potentially do in a head to head with Norris. That is a really exciting prospect!

Me too! Piastri will make some inroads, but how much? I think Norris is a lot better than people give him credit. To my mind, Ric suffered as a result - maybe I will be proved wrong...

[Deesee]

The Alpines are quicker than the McLaren, and Norris has race pace better than both Alpine drivers. (Who are no slouches). Best driver not in a top car last two years.

Looks like Mick to Alpine next year too, Dani will drive for Hass (which will make drive to survive even more interesting).

[ch37]

Deesee said:

Looks like Mick to Alpine next year too, Dani will drive for Hass (which will make drive to survive even more interesting).

From the outside looking in I sense that Daniel would have a whole lot more fun going off to the US and doing whatever comes up there, but maybe he thinks he still has more to offer in F1 and Haas is a pretty reasonable seat these days.

The US loves him and he seems to love the country and spends a lot of time there.

[thegreenhell]

Nobody knows how Piastri will go in the McLaren, not even McLaren themselves. Past form in junior categories means nothing once you get to F1, and McLaren have a recent history of producing tricky cars that leave certain drivers totally lost. Ricciardo isn't the first driver to have his career aspirations destroyed in that team, and he won't be the last. It remains to be seen if Piastri can get on top of that car's handling, or if he'll just be the next in a long line of 'future world champions' who disappear as barely a footnote in F1 history.

[cgt2]

PhilAsia said:

Me too! Piastri will make some inroads, but how much? I think Norris is a lot better than people give him credit. To my mind, Ric suffered as a result - maybe I will be proved wrong...

No question Norris is absolutely top notch, as he has demonstrated. Precisely which is why it's such an interesting prospect.

I think all the evidence Piastri has shown to this point very much mirrors the top echelon of drivers. We will find out soon enough

[C70R]

jsf said:

Compared to F1, for a driver, every other series is simply lower level doing a job. F1 is the standout gig. The difference in quality and money is enormous. The only series that comes close in terms of engineering input and kudos is the works team prototype WEC, which have even less competitive cars than F1 these days and is still low on the pecking order by comparison.

Couldn't agree more. Almost every driver on the F1 grid has had success in a lower series. That, for the most part, is how they got there. "Serial loser" Bottas was a champion in multiple lower series before getting to F1, and it doesn't seem to have been enough to make him a superstar.

Even F2/GP2 has birthed such F1 failures as Maldonado, Grosjean, Vandoorne, Gasly and Palmer as series champions. So winning there is no guarantee of being good enough to be competitive in F1.

[LeoSayer]

samoht said:

That's hindsight bias I think.

Wind the clock back to the start of the 2020 season when the deal was done. McLaren were just slogging out of years of backmarkery. They'd just finished in the top half of the table for the first time in five years. Their only experienced driver, the guy who had scored 96 of their 145 championship points in that 2019 season, lets them know he's off to Italy.

They need a talented and experienced driver to pair with rookie Lando. Max, Lewis and Charles are already taken. They'd already done Alonso, twice. Who do you get - Vettel, or the guy who made Vettel look slow when they were in identical machinery? The guy who'd only lost out to Max as a team-mate, and then only narrowly?


https://the-race.com/formula-1/mark-hughes-on-ricc...

Under the circumstances, McLaren needed a good experienced race-winning driver, and they didn't have a lot of options, so they had to pay top money for Ricciardo.

At the time, no-one was predicting he'd be shown up by Lando - most people anticipated the reverse would occur, if anything.

Sometimes in life you make a decision, and it's the best decision you could have made with the information you had at the time, but it still doesn't work out. st happens.
When that does happen, it's no use beating yourself up about it, just accept the situation, deal with it, and move on. Which is exactly what McLaren have done.

That's such a great post. Stuff I sort of knew but couldn't never articulate so well.

It's still doesn't help me work out why st happened though.

Is Daniel suddenly not a fast driver any more? Unlikely

The McLaren just doesn't suit him? Possible but I always thought he was flexible to different cars and setups.

Daniel took his foot off the gas - Possibly. Maybe the realisation that he won't be a world champion has killed his desire.

Lando is the second coming - probably not. Was he faster than Sainz? We need another one of those charts please!

[andburg]

LeoSayer said:

That's such a great post. Stuff I sort of knew but couldn't never articulate so well.

It's still doesn't help me work out why st happened though.

Is Daniel suddenly not a fast driver any more? Unlikely

The McLaren just doesn't suit him? Possible but I always thought he was flexible to different cars and setups.

Daniel took his foot off the gas - Possibly. Maybe the realisation that he won't be a world champion has killed his desire.

Lando is the second coming - probably not. Was he faster than Sainz? We need another one of those charts please!

There is obviously a trait in the Mclaren his driving style doesn't suit and in 2 seasons hes not been able to adjust to it. the car behaviour will evolve but theyre not going to risk changing what works for Lando too much as hes getting the results.

Its almost like Red Bull, Max can drive it so the pace is there

[ajprice]

cgt2 said:

No question Norris is absolutely top notch, as he has demonstrated. Precisely which is why it's such an interesting prospect.

Norris did alright in 2019 v Sainz, and it was very close in 2020. If Mclaren find can improve the car, or another top team (Mercedes when Hamilton retires?) come knocking he'll be right up there.

[thegreenhell]

andburg said:

LeoSayer said:

That's such a great post. Stuff I sort of knew but couldn't never articulate so well.

It's still doesn't help me work out why st happened though.

Is Daniel suddenly not a fast driver any more? Unlikely

The McLaren just doesn't suit him? Possible but I always thought he was flexible to different cars and setups.

Daniel took his foot off the gas - Possibly. Maybe the realisation that he won't be a world champion has killed his desire.

Lando is the second coming - probably not. Was he faster than Sainz? We need another one of those charts please!

There is obviously a trait in the Mclaren his driving style doesn't suit and in 2 seasons hes not been able to adjust to it. the car behaviour will evolve but theyre not going to risk changing what works for Lando too much as hes getting the results.

Its almost like Red Bull, Max can drive it so the pace is there

There was an article on the-race.com recently about Stoffel Vandoorne's struggles at McLaren, and you could easily substitute Ricciardo into the same narrative. McLaren have a design philosophy that requires a very busy driving style that only seems to suit a driver who can hustle a car to the apex of a corner. Drivers with a more classical driving style seem to suffer with an instability in the first phase of the corner.

This is what Danny has been struggling with. Both Lando and Carlos have said the McLaren has peculiar traits that they don't like, but they were able to adapt and deal with it better.

Another thing with McLaren is that their facilities are not up to date with the latest tech in F1. They are still using the old Toyota wind tunnel in Cologne, which reportedly cannot simulate the full range of conditions they need. They are building a new one in Woking but it won't be fully online for another year yet. Their driver sim rig is also described as 'first-gen' and needs to be updated. Until they get their facilities updated and dialled in they aren't going to significantly improve their situation.

[samoht]

LeoSayer said:

It's still doesn't help me work out why st happened though.

Is Daniel suddenly not a fast driver any more? Unlikely

The McLaren just doesn't suit him? Possible but I always thought he was flexible to different cars and setups.

Daniel took his foot off the gas - Possibly. Maybe the realisation that he won't be a world champion has killed his desire.

Lando is the second coming - probably not. Was he faster than Sainz? We need another one of those charts please!

I agree that it's quite hard to understand why a driver who was successful at previous teams is now underperforming so notably.

The Mark Hughes article I linked above is the most/best insight I have into it, and has some details of Ricciardo's struggles.


I believe the problem is incompatibility between Danny Ric and the McLaren car. It seems that in general there isn't just one way to drive a car quickly, and so different drivers discover different approaches that work for them, trading off lateral vs longitudinal grip and speed at entry vs exit, for example. It just happens that the style Daniel developed, which worked with the cars he drove before, relies most on the areas the McLaren is weakest and fails to exploit its strengths.

Sounds like it may be to do with under vs oversteer and which end of the car is the limiting factor in corner speed.

It seems to be in a similar ballpark as the way Sebastian Vettel was so dominant in the blown-diffuser Red Bulls, but much more average in other machinery.

It's a hard thing to get the details of because it relates to vehicle dynamics, aero, tyres as well as the human physiology of different drivers. If it was easy to understand, McLaren and Daniel would either have fixed it, or decided it was unfixable, in less than one and a half years.

[andburg]

Cant remember where it was on youtube but i watched a video comparing Lewis and George and the differences. It boiled down to Hamilton braked earlier turned the car slower, carried more speed at the apex and was generally a gear higher. George braked later and harder then turned in sharper so he could straighten up and be on throttle earlier.

The merc obviously works both ways but another car may not

[HustleRussell]

I wonder how Piastri feels about having signed for Mclaren for 2023 now that he knows that he would've ended up at Alpine alongside Ocon- probably a more manageable car and team-mate.

[Mark-C]

HustleRussell said:

I wonder how Piastri feels about having signed for Mclaren for 2023 now that he knows that he would've ended up at Alpine alongside Ocon- probably a more manageable car and team-mate.

He's an F1 driver - he'll be confident he can drive the car and beat Lando ... it might not turn out to be true but he'll believe it to be true until it isn't. Happens to them all when they come into F1 and reality bites - the greats are the ones who's abilities really match their initial confidence.

Time will tell ..

[ajprice]

Mark-C said:

HustleRussell said:

I wonder how Piastri feels about having signed for Mclaren for 2023 now that he knows that he would've ended up at Alpine alongside Ocon- probably a more manageable car and team-mate.

He's an F1 driver - he'll be confident he can drive the car and beat Lando ... it might not turn out to be true but he'll believe it to be true until it isn't. Happens to them all when they come into F1 and reality bites - the greats are the ones who's abilities really match their initial confidence.

Time will tell ..

It's been said before here or one of the other F1 threads, the McLaren seems like the old Ducati MotoGP that only Stoner could ride, or the modern Honda that only Marquez could get the best from. The McLaren's characteristics might be something Norris and Sainz were used to, and Ricciardo couldn't handle. Vettel in the blown diffuser Red Bull cars got 4 championships, when they were banned and Ricciardo came in, Vettel wasn't the same level.

[thegreenhell]

Is Piastri still going to get his FP1 runs in the Alpine this year after all this kerfuffle, or are Alpine going to find a different rookie to run instead? Before this all blew up in Hungary he was scheduled to make his FP1 debut this weekend in Spa. I assume they've also put a stop to all his private testing they were doing in the old car.