RE: PH Blog: boom and bust?
Discussion
Podie said:
Years ago, the missus and I nearly bought a 246 Dino.
We thought about it, came back the next day and it had sold.
It was up for £50k.
I remember one for sale in the 80s for just over £30k and telling my dad it would be a great investment. Funnily enough I remind him of that from time to time!We thought about it, came back the next day and it had sold.
It was up for £50k.
You've got to remember that prices are dictated by a whole range of factors - common sense, personal preference and subjectivity have no place in the market. I've been involved with RM and every RM sale since they came to Europe, and one thing is always true - the specific history of a car and its provenance are key, as is scarcity. Looks/sexiness come into it. Chris cites GT2 vs 959 - but 959s have never been loved as 'lookers' and that holds them back as much as anything else. Secondly, restoration costs - Dino's are notoriously expensive to restore - and the best restoration services become enormously expensive. Dino's are - objectively - very good looking cars and their comparative lack of performance is almost irrelevant. But buy a cheap one and it'll cost you dear. If you bought an £80,000 Dino, to restore it to the condition of the car we had in the sale would cost you another £200K and a lot of aggravation. It's easier to just front up the £200K now and buy the perfect car. It's just a fact. The same for DB Astons - go and ask the leading restorers for the cost of doing up your ropey old DB5, and you might as well look at re mortgaging. Same is true at the other end of the market - sure, you can buy a Morris Minor for £1000 - but if you want it mint, budget for an £7K restoration. Just go and buy a £6K Minor and have done with it.
king grand.It seems to me a matter of crushing inevitability that the market will collapse. I say this for the following reasons:
1. Too many people are explaining with conviction that the market will not collapse.
2. The increase in prices has been very rapid without any corresponding increase in the number of buyers or the availability of money or a decrease in the supply of vehicles (if anything, supply is greater than ever before).
3. True car enthusiasts--as distinct from people with a passing interest in cars--are relatively few in number. True car enthusiasts who are have six-figure sums at their disposal are extremely few in number. The core value of these cars depends upon their appeal to true car enthusiasts. That is what singles them out as special. The market is not being driven by true car enthusiasts, however: it is being driven by investors for whom the purchase is a speculative investment that just happens to be a car. Thus price has become separated from core value and is founded on speculation which, as we all know, means nothing.
The giveaway is the Daytona at £319,200.
1. Too many people are explaining with conviction that the market will not collapse.
2. The increase in prices has been very rapid without any corresponding increase in the number of buyers or the availability of money or a decrease in the supply of vehicles (if anything, supply is greater than ever before).
3. True car enthusiasts--as distinct from people with a passing interest in cars--are relatively few in number. True car enthusiasts who are have six-figure sums at their disposal are extremely few in number. The core value of these cars depends upon their appeal to true car enthusiasts. That is what singles them out as special. The market is not being driven by true car enthusiasts, however: it is being driven by investors for whom the purchase is a speculative investment that just happens to be a car. Thus price has become separated from core value and is founded on speculation which, as we all know, means nothing.
The giveaway is the Daytona at £319,200.
Well, it's a lot of factors - the complexity of the car - an interestingly, a Dino is a more complicated restoration than a lot of other Ferraris - but the main factor is the cost that the specialists can command. A minor can be done satisfactorily by a competent, local restorer at a pretty cheap hourly rate, all the bits are dirt cheap - you can probably by a cylinder head for £100, and the finish people are looking for in a Minor is fairly simple. Ferrari specialists are in a different universe from an hourly rate perspective. I know a guy who recently gave his (fairly mint) Daytona to a well known marque specialist, asking them to 'go over it, put a few things right, give it a tune up, and generally get it ready for a road rally he was participating in'. He was presented with a £60K bill for that work.....I'm not saying it's right or even justifiable - it's just the way it is. Having said that, my father had a pre-war BMW 328 sports car re-sprayed by Europe's leading specialists in pre-war BMWs, about 20 years ago. The stripping of the old paint, the panel beating, lead filling, spray work and re-fitting cost £20K - that was 20 years ago - and that was just a 'paint job'.
It's all a bloody shame and that is coming from someone who owns a few cars that have appreciated a lot. Personally I hope the arse drops out of the market. Cars are there for car people and should be seen, heard etc. I'm not saying investors don't use them, they probably do. But I'd rather see them in the care of genuine enthusiasts. Mainly though, I would like the market to crash to wash out the speculators and get prices back to 'non boom' time values.
I think it will happen at some point, prices don't go and up in perpetuity/indefinitely. As soon as people start arguing otherwise, that is when you can start to get excited about the opportunities on the horizon.
I'm going to sell my 288 GTO, because frankly its worth more to me now in cash than it is as a car. As a driving instrument it is woefully underwhelming when you think of the value. I cannot say the same for the F40. But I'm sure some might disagree. Good luck to them. I reckon it'll go up in value some more, but who cares. For the money I'll get for it, there will be plenty of opportunities. I'll take a Murcielago for starters. It's not an investment, it's not supposed to be. It's a car and ultimately I know I'll have a lot more fun in that and I won't have any niggling doubts everytime I use it about value or mileage. Rust even. Some people might be so financially bullet proof that they can use their 288 or whatever with carefree abandon and not worry about mileage or originality. To me, it shouldn't even be an issue and it puts me off those types of cars. Of course you can restore cars and that makes mileage irrelevant largely, but the cost is astronomical and will only get more so as specialists recognise the deep pockets of their clients as well as the value of the car itself. Two and two together and you get a very large bill.
I should add, Ilke driving. I'm not a collector, to me car collectors are no glorified stamp collectors. I really never aspired to be one of those. Cars should be about fun. To me this has become less and less so. I'm going the other way now and focusing on driving, also quite fancy a 308 carb. Again useable and you don't have to be precious about it. They are still sensible if you don't try and buy a concours one.
I think it will happen at some point, prices don't go and up in perpetuity/indefinitely. As soon as people start arguing otherwise, that is when you can start to get excited about the opportunities on the horizon.
I'm going to sell my 288 GTO, because frankly its worth more to me now in cash than it is as a car. As a driving instrument it is woefully underwhelming when you think of the value. I cannot say the same for the F40. But I'm sure some might disagree. Good luck to them. I reckon it'll go up in value some more, but who cares. For the money I'll get for it, there will be plenty of opportunities. I'll take a Murcielago for starters. It's not an investment, it's not supposed to be. It's a car and ultimately I know I'll have a lot more fun in that and I won't have any niggling doubts everytime I use it about value or mileage. Rust even. Some people might be so financially bullet proof that they can use their 288 or whatever with carefree abandon and not worry about mileage or originality. To me, it shouldn't even be an issue and it puts me off those types of cars. Of course you can restore cars and that makes mileage irrelevant largely, but the cost is astronomical and will only get more so as specialists recognise the deep pockets of their clients as well as the value of the car itself. Two and two together and you get a very large bill.
I should add, Ilke driving. I'm not a collector, to me car collectors are no glorified stamp collectors. I really never aspired to be one of those. Cars should be about fun. To me this has become less and less so. I'm going the other way now and focusing on driving, also quite fancy a 308 carb. Again useable and you don't have to be precious about it. They are still sensible if you don't try and buy a concours one.
sleep envy said:
Depends on the individual I guess but with all the rare aircooled RS stuff heading over there I doubt they'd do very many miles in them.
The chap I bought my 993 RS from had a collection of over 140 cars.
When he wanted to drive a particular car he'd phone up the guy who ran his garage.
The car was readied and delivered to him to pretty much anywhere in Europe.
That is other worldly. What do people like that do?!The chap I bought my 993 RS from had a collection of over 140 cars.
When he wanted to drive a particular car he'd phone up the guy who ran his garage.
The car was readied and delivered to him to pretty much anywhere in Europe.
When a 246 Dino showed up a couple of years ago at the annual Italian Car Show here in Vancouver, the crowds immediately forgot about the Murciélagos, 430s, 599s, Gallardos, Countaches, et al. It was so beautiful, so stunning, that the crowd was half-a-dozen deep for the remaining half hour I was there and it was impossible to get a clear picture of it if you wanted to.
It's because the 246 Dino (or the Muira, for example) makes the owner look not just like some rich bankster jerk (or a footballer like you English like to use as a derogatory owner type), but rather like a larger than life celebrity with impeccable style. It is worth every penny, if that's your goal.
Strange commentary from Chris Harris with regards to the values of the 993 GT2 and the 246 Dino. He comments on how production numbers should mean that the Dino isn't worth so much. Well, as for 993s, there's about 50,000 or so at least still kicking around, ready to be converted into a GT2 "tribute" any time. At a cost, of course, but at nowhere near the auction price of this one. Meanwhile, less than 5,000 Dinos were manufactured, with massive attrition due to rust and neglect. I doubt that half of them are still even on the road right now. And nobody can make a 246 tribute car in their garage.
It's because the 246 Dino (or the Muira, for example) makes the owner look not just like some rich bankster jerk (or a footballer like you English like to use as a derogatory owner type), but rather like a larger than life celebrity with impeccable style. It is worth every penny, if that's your goal.
Strange commentary from Chris Harris with regards to the values of the 993 GT2 and the 246 Dino. He comments on how production numbers should mean that the Dino isn't worth so much. Well, as for 993s, there's about 50,000 or so at least still kicking around, ready to be converted into a GT2 "tribute" any time. At a cost, of course, but at nowhere near the auction price of this one. Meanwhile, less than 5,000 Dinos were manufactured, with massive attrition due to rust and neglect. I doubt that half of them are still even on the road right now. And nobody can make a 246 tribute car in their garage.
Edited by Trevor M on Wednesday 7th November 15:21
LeoZwalf said:
That is other worldly. What do people like that do?!
Well central banks are "printing" trillions of dollars, pounds and euros, and interest rates are at near zero for the first time in 400 years.Do you really think they'd do that just for the likes of you and me? Link
With that extra cash sloshing around, what else to do with it?
Property? Well that still has a long way to fall to historic averages, and new houses can always be built.
Classic cars? They don't make them anymore. Supply is finite. Plus you can enjoy them while they rise in value.
Beefmeister said:
I think that the smart money would go on one of these right now:
http://classifieds.pistonheads.com/classifieds/use...
The Carrera GT is one of the last true driver's Supercars - n/a screaming V10, manual gearbox, stunning uncomplicated styling. Especially with the replacement being a techno-fest I think the CGT will start to rise in value even more than they are doing currently.
Get 'em while they're hot!
I must admit that, at first I wasn't a fan of the Lotus Europa / pseudo pickup truck styling when I first saw them in the magazine pictures. Those pictures were invariably without the roof pieces. With the roof on, they look much better, and the noise they make is nothing short of fantastic. There isn't an engine in the world that sounds like the Carrera GT.http://classifieds.pistonheads.com/classifieds/use...
The Carrera GT is one of the last true driver's Supercars - n/a screaming V10, manual gearbox, stunning uncomplicated styling. Especially with the replacement being a techno-fest I think the CGT will start to rise in value even more than they are doing currently.
Get 'em while they're hot!
There is a mediocre film called Fracture with Anthony Hopkins where his character drives a Carrera GT, and there are some gloriously unnecessary acceleration and throttle blipping in the first few minutes of the film. Find it!
I agree with the above poster. The Carrera GT is the swansong for the manually shifted, rwd, passive damped (waits to be corrected), and mechanically differentialled (waits to be corrected) hyper car.
pistolp said:
It's all a bloody shame and that is coming from someone who owns a few cars that have appreciated a lot. Personally I hope the arse drops out of the market. Cars are there for car people and should be seen, heard etc. I'm not saying investors don't use them, they probably do. But I'd rather see them in the care of genuine enthusiasts. Mainly though, I would like the market to crash to wash out the speculators and get prices back to 'non boom' time values.
I think it will happen at some point, prices don't go and up in perpetuity/indefinitely. As soon as people start arguing otherwise, that is when you can start to get excited about the opportunities on the horizon.
I'm going to sell my 288 GTO, because frankly its worth more to me now in cash than it is as a car. As a driving instrument it is woefully underwhelming when you think of the value. I cannot say the same for the F40. But I'm sure some might disagree. Good luck to them. I reckon it'll go up in value some more, but who cares. For the money I'll get for it, there will be plenty of opportunities. I'll take a Murcielago for starters. It's not an investment, it's not supposed to be. It's a car and ultimately I know I'll have a lot more fun in that and I won't have any niggling doubts everytime I use it about value or mileage. Rust even. Some people might be so financially bullet proof that they can use their 288 or whatever with carefree abandon and not worry about mileage or originality. To me, it shouldn't even be an issue and it puts me off those types of cars. Of course you can restore cars and that makes mileage irrelevant largely, but the cost is astronomical and will only get more so as specialists recognise the deep pockets of their clients as well as the value of the car itself. Two and two together and you get a very large bill.
I should add, Ilke driving. I'm not a collector, to me car collectors are no glorified stamp collectors. I really never aspired to be one of those. Cars should be about fun. To me this has become less and less so. I'm going the other way now and focusing on driving, also quite fancy a 308 carb. Again useable and you don't have to be precious about it. They are still sensible if you don't try and buy a concours one.
You could say that properties are for living in/businesses to function out of too on the same arguments and it is a great shame that people make so much money out of speculating in them (enough to buy 288 GTOs perhaps) whilst some people can't get onto the property ladder or find anywhere to run their business (but that would be sour grapes I think it will happen at some point, prices don't go and up in perpetuity/indefinitely. As soon as people start arguing otherwise, that is when you can start to get excited about the opportunities on the horizon.
I'm going to sell my 288 GTO, because frankly its worth more to me now in cash than it is as a car. As a driving instrument it is woefully underwhelming when you think of the value. I cannot say the same for the F40. But I'm sure some might disagree. Good luck to them. I reckon it'll go up in value some more, but who cares. For the money I'll get for it, there will be plenty of opportunities. I'll take a Murcielago for starters. It's not an investment, it's not supposed to be. It's a car and ultimately I know I'll have a lot more fun in that and I won't have any niggling doubts everytime I use it about value or mileage. Rust even. Some people might be so financially bullet proof that they can use their 288 or whatever with carefree abandon and not worry about mileage or originality. To me, it shouldn't even be an issue and it puts me off those types of cars. Of course you can restore cars and that makes mileage irrelevant largely, but the cost is astronomical and will only get more so as specialists recognise the deep pockets of their clients as well as the value of the car itself. Two and two together and you get a very large bill.
I should add, Ilke driving. I'm not a collector, to me car collectors are no glorified stamp collectors. I really never aspired to be one of those. Cars should be about fun. To me this has become less and less so. I'm going the other way now and focusing on driving, also quite fancy a 308 carb. Again useable and you don't have to be precious about it. They are still sensible if you don't try and buy a concours one.
)entirely tongue in cheek, I know the argument isn't really parallel because things are only worth what people think they are worth, I just looked at your profile to see some shots of the 288GTO, which is my all-time favourite car and I can sympathise with you not wanting to use it as it is just too special in a way
Edited by zebedee on Wednesday 7th November 15:27
pistolp said:
..
I should add, Ilke driving. I'm not a collector, to me car collectors are no glorified stamp collectors. I really never aspired to be one of those. Cars should be about fun. To me this has become less and less so. I'm going the other way now and focusing on driving, also quite fancy a 308 carb. Again useable and you don't have to be precious about it. They are still sensible if you don't try and buy a concours one.
That makes a lot of sense. I should add, Ilke driving. I'm not a collector, to me car collectors are no glorified stamp collectors. I really never aspired to be one of those. Cars should be about fun. To me this has become less and less so. I'm going the other way now and focusing on driving, also quite fancy a 308 carb. Again useable and you don't have to be precious about it. They are still sensible if you don't try and buy a concours one.
Have you driven a Dino, it is rubbish frankly? It is underpowered and prone to breaking down being a 60's car. Lovely steering and noise granted, but hardly inspiring to drive - all the more so once you've got over the looks and the nostalgia factor.
Let me put it another way. A man has two wives, one is a demon in the sack and the other is pretty to look at. Which one do you think he'll get bored of more quickly?
Also, you (unfortunately) can't compare a non original GT2 with an original one. 'Originality' and 'factory' are two words synonomous with value at the moment. There are a couple of hundred GT2's? Several thousand Dino's and the GT2 is of course more modern and therefore objectively a much better driving tool. I think that was his point. He's also a Porsche man through and through so there is bound to be some bias.
J
Let me put it another way. A man has two wives, one is a demon in the sack and the other is pretty to look at. Which one do you think he'll get bored of more quickly?
Also, you (unfortunately) can't compare a non original GT2 with an original one. 'Originality' and 'factory' are two words synonomous with value at the moment. There are a couple of hundred GT2's? Several thousand Dino's and the GT2 is of course more modern and therefore objectively a much better driving tool. I think that was his point. He's also a Porsche man through and through so there is bound to be some bias.
J
pistolp said:
Let me put it another way. A man has two wives, one is a demon in the sack and the other is pretty to look at. Which one do you think he'll get bored of more quickly?
Agreed, look what Hugh Grant did when married to Liz Hurley, Ashley Cole with Cheryl whatsername etc etc. Agree that looking good helps with owning a car, but for me it is all about the driving - would rather have a non-road legal exciting car and a race track than a car for posing about in but unable to do more than 60mph on the roads.(PS I can only assume that Liz and Cheryl are not demons in the sack, I have no first hand knowledge of this)
I went to the auction, looking to buy the Dayton, as it was the best looking one i have ever seen. I am an enthusiast, and want to have the cars i lusted over when i was a boy and can now afford, or rather can't afford, as it went for more than my maximum bid, but what it has done has enabled me to be able to properly restore an old daytona, yes i would like to have some 'profit' in it but more that that will be to have a piece of automotive art, something to be able to drive when (and if) the weather is nice, to drive accross europe do some mountian passes and tunnels. prices well i would rather have an old imaaculate daytona than a new car. if it depreciates so be it, if it appreciates great, but i think people are buying classics because they now can afford them like me, if i sold my daytona what else would i want to buy! 
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