RE: PH Blog: boom and bust?
Discussion
Talk of the 'fifth ever' E-Type not selling for its £120k reserve made me smile. I've just filmed this 40,000m, unrestored V12 E-Type that is currently up for sale for £110,000. As beautiful as it is, can it really be worth that much?
http://www.insignia-motor-yachting.tv/life-ashore-...
(Apologies for this being on my boat web site. Boatheads buy fancy cars too).
http://www.insignia-motor-yachting.tv/life-ashore-...
(Apologies for this being on my boat web site. Boatheads buy fancy cars too).
LeoZwalf said:
sleep envy said:
Depends on the individual I guess but with all the rare aircooled RS stuff heading over there I doubt they'd do very many miles in them.
The chap I bought my 993 RS from had a collection of over 140 cars.
When he wanted to drive a particular car he'd phone up the guy who ran his garage.
The car was readied and delivered to him to pretty much anywhere in Europe.
That is other worldly. What do people like that do?!The chap I bought my 993 RS from had a collection of over 140 cars.
When he wanted to drive a particular car he'd phone up the guy who ran his garage.
The car was readied and delivered to him to pretty much anywhere in Europe.
There's an ENORMOUS risk reading anything into car values at the moment - because one end of the market is in a flat-out decline whilst the other is spending more and more on evermore exotic kit.
A GT2 is a rare car - that it would increase in value is a given - how much is pretty variable tho, one thing's for sure, it won't remain worth £300-odd grand forever.
Veyrons are common because they were bought by a relatively small group of people who got sick of them pretty quickly. It's a bit like TVR - they had a relatively small pool of new owners who'd turn-over cars into a relatively small pool of pre-owned users and when either pool ran out of customers, the cars which were left over were generally unloved and unwanted and dragged down values across-the-board.
Veyrons are also highly unique and VERY expensive to run - someone looking for a Veyron will want a particular range of colour/specs and a car which has been well treat - anything outside that will drop like a stone and take everything else with it.
Put another way - highly trendy things go from being unattainable to unwanted with very little inbetween - they start at a premium and end with a concrete slab around their ankle.
Lesson learned? VW alledgedly made a loss on every Veyron and yet they made too many of them for them to retain any value - and that is the difficulty of 'hypercar' manufacture in a nutshell.
A GT2 is a rare car - that it would increase in value is a given - how much is pretty variable tho, one thing's for sure, it won't remain worth £300-odd grand forever.
Veyrons are common because they were bought by a relatively small group of people who got sick of them pretty quickly. It's a bit like TVR - they had a relatively small pool of new owners who'd turn-over cars into a relatively small pool of pre-owned users and when either pool ran out of customers, the cars which were left over were generally unloved and unwanted and dragged down values across-the-board.
Veyrons are also highly unique and VERY expensive to run - someone looking for a Veyron will want a particular range of colour/specs and a car which has been well treat - anything outside that will drop like a stone and take everything else with it.
Put another way - highly trendy things go from being unattainable to unwanted with very little inbetween - they start at a premium and end with a concrete slab around their ankle.
Lesson learned? VW alledgedly made a loss on every Veyron and yet they made too many of them for them to retain any value - and that is the difficulty of 'hypercar' manufacture in a nutshell.
suffolk009 said:
LeoZwalf said:
sleep envy said:
Depends on the individual I guess but with all the rare aircooled RS stuff heading over there I doubt they'd do very many miles in them.
The chap I bought my 993 RS from had a collection of over 140 cars.
When he wanted to drive a particular car he'd phone up the guy who ran his garage.
The car was readied and delivered to him to pretty much anywhere in Europe.
That is other worldly. What do people like that do?!The chap I bought my 993 RS from had a collection of over 140 cars.
When he wanted to drive a particular car he'd phone up the guy who ran his garage.
The car was readied and delivered to him to pretty much anywhere in Europe.
My next car will be electric plug one I guess , so nice to collect these cars , sure I remember a friend of my selling 2 of them at £74k a few years back , but as this is a clubsport it is the rareity that is the main reason . I bought my 64 RS for £24 k would I pay £80k for one , no.
Collectors markets are exactly that alas, like any other commodity , fortunately we still race our 993 GT2s as we love them for what they are to drive.
Collectors markets are exactly that alas, like any other commodity , fortunately we still race our 993 GT2s as we love them for what they are to drive.
Muppetracer said:
Well, it's a lot of factors - the complexity of the car - an interestingly, a Dino is a more complicated restoration than a lot of other Ferraris - but the main factor is the cost that the specialists can command. A minor can be done satisfactorily by a competent, local restorer at a pretty cheap hourly rate, all the bits are dirt cheap - you can probably by a cylinder head for £100, and the finish people are looking for in a Minor is fairly simple. Ferrari specialists are in a different universe from an hourly rate perspective. I know a guy who recently gave his (fairly mint) Daytona to a well known marque specialist, asking them to 'go over it, put a few things right, give it a tune up, and generally get it ready for a road rally he was participating in'. He was presented with a £60K bill for that work.....I'm not saying it's right or even justifiable - it's just the way it is. Having said that, my father had a pre-war BMW 328 sports car re-sprayed by Europe's leading specialists in pre-war BMWs, about 20 years ago. The stripping of the old paint, the panel beating, lead filling, spray work and re-fitting cost £20K - that was 20 years ago - and that was just a 'paint job'.
Although I think there is kidology involved (why do we charge £80/hour ? Because if we charged less, you'd feel we were skimping the work) some of this work is undoubtedly difficult and time is needed to source the bits / have them made in minute quantities. The £400,000 car stopped in the middle of nowhere by an arcing rotor arm that cost 50 pence to make is embarasing for any repairer. However, I have seen really top class repairs done by very skilled guys and they don't charge an arm and leg.They are always busy and they often do work for the 'top restorers' ! Using a 'marque specialist' (and you sometimes need to ask who appointed them....) works in other trades. You can get a Purdey gun rebarrelled by s gunsmith, using the correct spec barrels. The gun will shoot just as well as if done by Purdeys with "Purdey" barrels, made alongside the ones that were fitted. But it won't be a Purdey anymore.
Amusing to see the Dino featuring in this article. A good while ago a good Dino fetched £99k. Indeed a friend bought one at this exact price, then spend a further £35k sorting out cracked heads, block, crank etc. A year or so later, when the "market" colapsed it sold into Holland for £34k. I am sure there is a moral here somewhere...
will_ said:
It's a bubblel led by the 250GTO and "blue chip" cars.
We've been here before - when F40s changed hands for £1m+ (in the 1980s, when a decent London house was £100k).
Investors are quick to get in, but even quicker to get out.
I don't think we'll ever learn. 10-20 years time we'll all be back in the same situation as we are now... we probably could get rid of boom n bust, just as winky promised. People are just too money hungry for that to ever happen.We've been here before - when F40s changed hands for £1m+ (in the 1980s, when a decent London house was £100k).
Investors are quick to get in, but even quicker to get out.
405dogvan said:
There's an ENORMOUS risk reading anything into car values at the moment - because one end of the market is in a flat-out decline whilst the other is spending more and more on evermore exotic kit.
Good point - what is with that?I started a thread a few weeks ago asking the classic car forum if it was baby boomers retiring and this well-off bunch buying the car of their youth dreams etc. I now consider that quantitative easing could be having a bigger impact than I imagined. As with all high end real assets (Central London property, fine wine, race-horses(??) gold etc) cars, at the top end, have been massively inflated in times of, frankly, economic turmoil. Recessions (or stagflation) are not normal accompaniments for asset price bubbles are they?
jamespink said:
Amusing to see the Dino featuring in this article. A good while ago a good Dino fetched £99k. Indeed a friend bought one at this exact price, then spend a further £35k sorting out cracked heads, block, crank etc. A year or so later, when the "market" colapsed it sold into Holland for £34k. I am sure there is a moral here somewhere...
A wealthy mate bought a late 74 Dino GTS lime green!! in period in 78 for £8500 and traded it in later for a Lancia Beta for £5500.Dont forget a new 73 RS was £6500 Happy Days!!!!
The situation with the Veyron is not that unusual. Basically, its a low volume second hand car and still current enough not to be classic. Stating the obvious, the 993 has a cachet as the last aircooled Porsche and as as a Clubsport, has rarity on its side too. In the world of collecting and investment, which is basically what we're talking about, people will pay stupid money for rarity and provenance. Try buying a Comex Rolex Sea Dweller or a Red Sub as an example from another field. However, as long as there are sufficient numbers of equally irrational fellow collectors, it makes sense from an investment perspective. As long.... Personally, I would be concerned about the long term value of anything that relies on a finite and declining resource to make it function.
Couple of thoughts here...
Firstly, the 993 GT2 auction was a little fierce, there was one resting bid at mid-estimate (250k) and then a second (very punchy) bid from the phones at 280k. (Rest was premium etc). And it was all over. Just 2 bids and the second one was meant to win the auction. Audible surprise in the room. The car was in fabulous condition and you'll struggle to find a better one if you are a collector. But it was very much top $$$ paid though. All GT2 C/S are not worth this.
But away from the GT2, people are not allowing for a couple of factors: For example inflation both generally and in new car prices at the top end over the last few years. It wasn't long ago the flagship V12 Ferrari was 150k, now it's over 250k right? And secondly cars we now consider classic, like the 993 GT2, as Chris points out, can be looked after cheaply and will still be as reliable, if not more than some of the new options. AND they won't depreciate.
If they were the same money, would you opt for a new GT3 RS and accept it'll halve in value over the next 5yrs, or would you buy a '73 RS instead and expect it at least hold it's value? It won't cost anymore to run, nor will it be less reliable and in these heavily policed days (esp in Europe)there's a lot to be said for getting your kicks at a lower speed? A lot of guys would take the latter option and that's why the limited supply of good '73 RS's will trade at a premium to a new GT3 RS. And I think this potentially underpins the classic market. I'd be far more worried about heavy depreciation setting in on new cars first than real classics (which doesn't for me include the Dino!) at these prices, but I do see limited upside from here. I think this is simply inflation/money supply driven rather than a bubble at the moment.
All IMHO
Rick @pofg
Firstly, the 993 GT2 auction was a little fierce, there was one resting bid at mid-estimate (250k) and then a second (very punchy) bid from the phones at 280k. (Rest was premium etc). And it was all over. Just 2 bids and the second one was meant to win the auction. Audible surprise in the room. The car was in fabulous condition and you'll struggle to find a better one if you are a collector. But it was very much top $$$ paid though. All GT2 C/S are not worth this.
But away from the GT2, people are not allowing for a couple of factors: For example inflation both generally and in new car prices at the top end over the last few years. It wasn't long ago the flagship V12 Ferrari was 150k, now it's over 250k right? And secondly cars we now consider classic, like the 993 GT2, as Chris points out, can be looked after cheaply and will still be as reliable, if not more than some of the new options. AND they won't depreciate.
If they were the same money, would you opt for a new GT3 RS and accept it'll halve in value over the next 5yrs, or would you buy a '73 RS instead and expect it at least hold it's value? It won't cost anymore to run, nor will it be less reliable and in these heavily policed days (esp in Europe)there's a lot to be said for getting your kicks at a lower speed? A lot of guys would take the latter option and that's why the limited supply of good '73 RS's will trade at a premium to a new GT3 RS. And I think this potentially underpins the classic market. I'd be far more worried about heavy depreciation setting in on new cars first than real classics (which doesn't for me include the Dino!) at these prices, but I do see limited upside from here. I think this is simply inflation/money supply driven rather than a bubble at the moment.
All IMHO
Rick @pofg
Exactly. As with all these cars, try getting the dealer to buy it off you for anything even vaguely close to what you think its worth. A dealer might ask big money, but there is no risk if its not their money. We've been here before with the SOR issue.
It's the same with watches. I've got a red sub, bought it on the pretence that it's very nice and pretty special to boot. I tried to sell it back to a dealer lately, he didn't want it or want to offer as he said they had quite a few and demand had flattened a bit. Anything truly special you always want in stock.
The problem at the moment is everyone thinks that anything that's no longer in production must be a potential gold mine. Be it watches or cars. I think the only exception is the Toyota Corolla. At 35m units, I am yet to see an advert alluding to its black carpets, factory badges, good history and untouched original paint. Clearly there is still some logic, however scarce.
It's the same with watches. I've got a red sub, bought it on the pretence that it's very nice and pretty special to boot. I tried to sell it back to a dealer lately, he didn't want it or want to offer as he said they had quite a few and demand had flattened a bit. Anything truly special you always want in stock.
The problem at the moment is everyone thinks that anything that's no longer in production must be a potential gold mine. Be it watches or cars. I think the only exception is the Toyota Corolla. At 35m units, I am yet to see an advert alluding to its black carpets, factory badges, good history and untouched original paint. Clearly there is still some logic, however scarce.
Beefmeister said:
I think that the smart money would go on one of these right now:
http://classifieds.pistonheads.com/classifieds/use...
The Carrera GT is one of the last true driver's Supercars - n/a screaming V10, manual gearbox, stunning uncomplicated styling. Especially with the replacement being a techno-fest I think the CGT will start to rise in value even more than they are doing currently.
Get 'em while they're hot!
I think I'd do the same too, or an Enzo or Ford GThttp://classifieds.pistonheads.com/classifieds/use...
The Carrera GT is one of the last true driver's Supercars - n/a screaming V10, manual gearbox, stunning uncomplicated styling. Especially with the replacement being a techno-fest I think the CGT will start to rise in value even more than they are doing currently.
Get 'em while they're hot!
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