Brexit, and car buying habits
Discussion
So how does Brexit change the motoring landscape?
Forget how you voted for a moment, and forget what you think is or isn't a good idea. Since this is a motoring discussion forum, how do people think the motoring landscape will change over the next few years?
My opinion?
- If duties rise on EU made cars, we'll see an increase in Japanese machinery. (Possibly Volvos, depending on how our trade relationship with Sweden gets set up?)
- Jaguar Land Rover will benefit from the weak pound for a few years, at least.
- We might see more Astras (made in Ellesmere Port, UK) compared to Focuses (made in Saarlouis, Germany) if we have to pay more to import cars.
- We might see a few more US built models, especially of non-US brands (Japanese brands, Mercedes Benz, BMW)
Any others?
Forget how you voted for a moment, and forget what you think is or isn't a good idea. Since this is a motoring discussion forum, how do people think the motoring landscape will change over the next few years?
My opinion?
- If duties rise on EU made cars, we'll see an increase in Japanese machinery. (Possibly Volvos, depending on how our trade relationship with Sweden gets set up?)
- Jaguar Land Rover will benefit from the weak pound for a few years, at least.
- We might see more Astras (made in Ellesmere Port, UK) compared to Focuses (made in Saarlouis, Germany) if we have to pay more to import cars.
- We might see a few more US built models, especially of non-US brands (Japanese brands, Mercedes Benz, BMW)
Any others?
Interesting.
Re your first point, Sweden is in the EU although of course not in the Euro. I doubt we'd have a different deal with Sweden to any other EU country.
Your second point seems right.
Your third points would be correct, should some sort of tariffs between the UK and EU arise. But it is not necessarily the case that any will (and hopefully they won't)
Point 4 depends on negotiating some sort of favourable trade deal with the US. Probably not going to happen very quickly.
Re your first point, Sweden is in the EU although of course not in the Euro. I doubt we'd have a different deal with Sweden to any other EU country.
Your second point seems right.
Your third points would be correct, should some sort of tariffs between the UK and EU arise. But it is not necessarily the case that any will (and hopefully they won't)
Point 4 depends on negotiating some sort of favourable trade deal with the US. Probably not going to happen very quickly.
In reality, probably relatively little change.
I'm hoping - as a remain voter - that the current economic doom and gloom is simply a knee-jerk reaction to uncertainty. The Euro is actually still considerably higher than it was many moons ago (versus the pound), although against the dollar it is grim.
Lotus are just about to re-enter the USA market, so that might be helpful to them. I think for some companies it might be a pain if you import from the EU - you'll need to have a bigger cash stockpile to cover any VAT being reclaimed.
I'm hoping - as a remain voter - that the current economic doom and gloom is simply a knee-jerk reaction to uncertainty. The Euro is actually still considerably higher than it was many moons ago (versus the pound), although against the dollar it is grim.
Lotus are just about to re-enter the USA market, so that might be helpful to them. I think for some companies it might be a pain if you import from the EU - you'll need to have a bigger cash stockpile to cover any VAT being reclaimed.
jayemm89 said:
Lotus are just about to re-enter the USA market, so that might be helpful to them. I think for some companies it might be a pain if you import from the EU - you'll need to have a bigger cash stockpile to cover any VAT being reclaimed.
Excellent point.What of car plants in the UK run by foreign companies? What they lose by not being in the single market they gain (for now) from a weak pound.
Is Bridgend's time building engines nearly up, if Ford's supply chain in/out of the EU now too complicated?
But...Other companies in the EU could in theory be asking for tariffs on Jags and LR cars in the future as an exit become nearer, making them more expensive to buy? It's Jaguar I would worry about as they don't sell a great many cars as it is and the competition is high in their segment market.
Long term there is a significant risk that when all the foreign-owned companies that currently manufacture most of the cars in the UK eg Nissan, have to decide where they are going to make their future models that they will look to do so in countries in the EU such that investment in UK factories will be run down.
Petrol prices will likely increase due to currency devaluation against dollars in which oil is obviously priced. Likely move to more fuel efficient although not diesel
More likely that uk cars may have tariffs imposed when imported into Europe
Mid term increase in interest rates to take increased inflation into hand - car finance more expensive
Greater uncertainty for individuals will delay big ticket car purchases
Components for uk assembled cars will get more expensive driving up uk domestic car prices
U.K. Will likely no longer have to follow block exemption ruling that warranty is not invalidated by independents although seems unlikely
On the plus side:
Prices of classic cars should cease to increase
More likely that uk cars may have tariffs imposed when imported into Europe
Mid term increase in interest rates to take increased inflation into hand - car finance more expensive
Greater uncertainty for individuals will delay big ticket car purchases
Components for uk assembled cars will get more expensive driving up uk domestic car prices
U.K. Will likely no longer have to follow block exemption ruling that warranty is not invalidated by independents although seems unlikely
On the plus side:
Prices of classic cars should cease to increase
blearyeyedboy said:
jayemm89 said:
Lotus are just about to re-enter the USA market, so that might be helpful to them. I think for some companies it might be a pain if you import from the EU - you'll need to have a bigger cash stockpile to cover any VAT being reclaimed.
Excellent point.What of car plants in the UK run by foreign companies? What they lose by not being in the single market they gain (for now) from a weak pound.
Is Bridgend's time building engines nearly up, if Ford's supply chain in/out of the EU now too complicated?
```=-09It depends on the what is negotiated on exit.
If we negotiate like Norway to be part of the economic trading area - then very little as it will be the same as now from a trading perspective. From a broader economic perspective this would be the best result. However, if we were to do this we would have to sign up to free movement of people as well. Given that for some Brexiters immigration is a big issue, I am not sure whether this will occur.
If we do something else, then tariffs may be imposed and then it is possible that the price of our cars would increase. For Jaguar, what could happen in this case is that the main office and potentially production would shift to Europe so impacting UK jobs but minimising the import tariffs put on Jaguar cars into Europe.
If we negotiate like Norway to be part of the economic trading area - then very little as it will be the same as now from a trading perspective. From a broader economic perspective this would be the best result. However, if we were to do this we would have to sign up to free movement of people as well. Given that for some Brexiters immigration is a big issue, I am not sure whether this will occur.
If we do something else, then tariffs may be imposed and then it is possible that the price of our cars would increase. For Jaguar, what could happen in this case is that the main office and potentially production would shift to Europe so impacting UK jobs but minimising the import tariffs put on Jaguar cars into Europe.
Nobody even knows what any terms and conditions are going to be yet for this divorce, so trying to read into it and predict what will happen to the UK car market is ridiculous. The only thing we can almost certainly assume is that the cars will still be built to meet EU type approval regulations, or what every they have to meet, so I suspect more of the same. Though by then there will probably a new fashion out of 5 wheeled, pickup coupe, trackday, off road, estate cars that run on panda st.
Willy Nilly said:
Nobody even knows what any terms and conditions are going to be yet for this divorce, so trying to read into it and predict what will happen to the UK car market is ridiculous.
So, you're saying it's in keeping with nearly every other thread on here? Clearly it's all speculation, but the same is true of other major media agencies right now. My intention is to spark a bit of friendly conversation, that's all.
New cars tend to be heavily taxed in countries where there is no local manufacture, such as Denmark.
Where a country builds cars it's in its interests not to stick high tariffs on imports for fear of triggering tit-for-tat tariffs in response.
However, bear in mind that American cars get a 10% duty slapped on them and you can see that UKs position in the brave new world is a long way from "risk free"! And remember why Honda, Nissan and Toyota all put their factories in UK....
Where a country builds cars it's in its interests not to stick high tariffs on imports for fear of triggering tit-for-tat tariffs in response.
However, bear in mind that American cars get a 10% duty slapped on them and you can see that UKs position in the brave new world is a long way from "risk free"! And remember why Honda, Nissan and Toyota all put their factories in UK....
LittleEnus said:
simonr100 said:
Yes, less Audis and less Volvos please!
Definitely less garish Mercedes please!!Gassing Station | General Gassing | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff