Used car market is dead...?
Discussion
lord trumpton said:
Blown2CV said:
Max_Torque said:
Looking at the rows, and rows, and rows of nearly new stock in most car dealers, i think the used car market is going to die a death at some point, which means residuals will plummet, which will push up leasing costs, and the market will re-stabilise. How long that loop will take, er, no idea!
they always have rows of stock you dumbass, otherwise they have space not being used for anything which is clearly a cardinal sin in retail. Do you assume when you go into tesco that the rows and rows of apples mean that there is a 'obvious' apple crisis? 
vtchequers said:
CS Garth said:
Yipper said:
The whole UK economy has slowed, ahead of the General Election. People are pausing until they have certainty on the result and which way the Brexit negotiations will be headed.
Precisely - growth fell somewhat in the GDP figures last week. Whilst clearly Brexit isn't exclusively responsible anyone who denies it has contributed is deluded. Blown2CV said:
Max_Torque said:
Looking at the rows, and rows, and rows of nearly new stock in most car dealers, i think the used car market is going to die a death at some point, which means residuals will plummet, which will push up leasing costs, and the market will re-stabilise. How long that loop will take, er, no idea!
they always have rows of stock you dumbass, otherwise they have space not being used for anything which is clearly a cardinal sin in retail. Do you assume when you go into tesco that the rows and rows of apples mean that there is a 'obvious' apple crisis? The difference is the "nearly new" bit. Go on go look at the dealers stock lists. I've never seen so much nearly new metal. Sure dealers always have stock, but it's across a range of ages, giving them some protection from market idiosyncrasy, but right now, they are crammed to bursting with stock that in order to sell will have to be priced cheaper than you can get a new car (either finance or lease) and when they do that, the whole rest of the market follows it down. It's a viscous spiral, and i can see some dealers going bust because they simply have all there cash tied up in stock that crashes......
VGTICE said:
if I price a car and you think it's too dear that doesn't mean that it really is too expensive but that it's too expensive for you.
Its a price driven market, why would - for a common or garden car - anyone pay a private seller MORE than they can buy the same car off a franchised dealer for? THAT was my point. I didnt say YOUR car was incorrectly priced - i dont even know what it was - it could have been a niche market car or a car in high demand - i said "some chimps out there price their cars higher than i can get the same car off a franchised dealer.". Its not about being too expensive for me, its about being too expensive. Why would i pay more for a car that i can get cheaper at a main dealers?
Thats got nothing to do with being able to AFFORD a particular car - its common sense. Why pay more?
I'm more than happy to pay market value for a car. Not giving some chimp £500 more for a car for sale on his driveway than i can get one from a franchised dealer for doesnt mean i cant afford it.
VGTICE said:
Yet you kept arguing that I'm wrong
I'm not arguing "you're wrong" - i've no idea what you were selling. If i was buying something specialist it may well suit to pay more from a private buyer who knows the car intimately rather than something with no history on a used car lot.You're taking this as an EITHER / OR - its not!
VGTICE said:
and how smart you are by buying cars from mugs who sell themselves short.
You mean by walking in to a main dealers and buying the same car for less? Thats buying cars from mugs who sell themselves short is it??Really?
VGTICE said:
And now by taking the piss out of those who were saying that the BMW was 2k too dear and will never sell you're basically agreeing with my point of view. That's what makes you a hypocrite.
It WASNT too dear it WAS CORRECTLY PRICED @ £10K - It was CHEAPER than dealers were asking for the same car and was a decent enough carThe CORRECT PRICE is what the market is prepared to pay for a private sale non specialist car - your "argument" (for want of a better word) - is that people SHOULD pay more than that.
Had the O/P been asking £12K for it then yes, i'd have advised him he was asking too much and to consider dropping the price.
He WASNT.
This doesnt seem difficult.
Clearly you've been festering on it for a fortnight - have you thought about getting out more?
Edited by daemon on Sunday 21st May 16:59
What concerns me is a change in mindset
I know numerous people that are now leasing/pcp new cars where previously they used to buy used cars
They all say they would never have an used car again
As an example friend with a 6 yo BMW and an 8 yo Peugeot traded both, first for a renegade and the second for a fiesta
Just over a year into the fiesta garage rang and asked him if he wanted a new one .. no money down and same monthlies .. so the 15 plate became a 66 plate
He's delighted, no service no tyres ... says it's just like a phone contract !
Scary thing is his mindset seems to be becoming the norm
I think he is in for a shock down the line as are many others
I don't know what effect it will have on used market .. can't see it being positive in the long term
It sort of reminds me of the Irish property boom a decade ago where every Tom dick and paddy started building houses and buying to let .. all to people that didn't exist
I know loads including family that got badly burned
From the outside I see the same sort of bubble building in cars
After all you pay a fortune for a smartphone and two years later it's worth shag all and gets chucked in a drawer at home .. if people are seeing cars the same way I can't see it ending well at all
I know numerous people that are now leasing/pcp new cars where previously they used to buy used cars
They all say they would never have an used car again
As an example friend with a 6 yo BMW and an 8 yo Peugeot traded both, first for a renegade and the second for a fiesta
Just over a year into the fiesta garage rang and asked him if he wanted a new one .. no money down and same monthlies .. so the 15 plate became a 66 plate
He's delighted, no service no tyres ... says it's just like a phone contract !
Scary thing is his mindset seems to be becoming the norm
I think he is in for a shock down the line as are many others
I don't know what effect it will have on used market .. can't see it being positive in the long term
It sort of reminds me of the Irish property boom a decade ago where every Tom dick and paddy started building houses and buying to let .. all to people that didn't exist
I know loads including family that got badly burned
From the outside I see the same sort of bubble building in cars
After all you pay a fortune for a smartphone and two years later it's worth shag all and gets chucked in a drawer at home .. if people are seeing cars the same way I can't see it ending well at all
Earthdweller said:
What concerns me is a change in mindset
I know numerous people that are now leasing/pcp new cars where previously they used to buy used cars
They all say they would never have an used car again
As an example friend with a 6 yo BMW and an 8 yo Peugeot traded both, first for a renegade and the second for a fiesta
Just over a year into the fiesta garage rang and asked him if he wanted a new one .. no money down and same monthlies .. so the 15 plate became a 66 plate
He's delighted, no service no tyres ... says it's just like a phone contract !
Scary thing is his mindset seems to be becoming the norm
I think he is in for a shock down the line as are many others
I don't know what effect it will have on used market .. can't see it being positive in the long term
It sort of reminds me of the Irish property boom a decade ago where every Tom dick and paddy started building houses and buying to let .. all to people that didn't exist
I know loads including family that got badly burned
From the outside I see the same sort of bubble building in cars
After all you pay a fortune for a smartphone and two years later it's worth shag all and gets chucked in a drawer at home .. if people are seeing cars the same way I can't see it ending well at all
But the big difference is the sums of money involved and thus the impact on the financial stability of the country. This time it'll be the banks/finance companies taking a bath and not the taxpayer as the sums involved aren't big enough to trouble the enhanced solvency ratios.I know numerous people that are now leasing/pcp new cars where previously they used to buy used cars
They all say they would never have an used car again
As an example friend with a 6 yo BMW and an 8 yo Peugeot traded both, first for a renegade and the second for a fiesta
Just over a year into the fiesta garage rang and asked him if he wanted a new one .. no money down and same monthlies .. so the 15 plate became a 66 plate
He's delighted, no service no tyres ... says it's just like a phone contract !
Scary thing is his mindset seems to be becoming the norm
I think he is in for a shock down the line as are many others
I don't know what effect it will have on used market .. can't see it being positive in the long term
It sort of reminds me of the Irish property boom a decade ago where every Tom dick and paddy started building houses and buying to let .. all to people that didn't exist
I know loads including family that got badly burned
From the outside I see the same sort of bubble building in cars
After all you pay a fortune for a smartphone and two years later it's worth shag all and gets chucked in a drawer at home .. if people are seeing cars the same way I can't see it ending well at all
There will ALWAYS be people who want to own their own car rather than lease them.
So there will always be a used car market - it simply would be pointless to start scrapping all the cars from 2005-2012 as their lease deals are running out.
Also the argument between daemon and VG, sort your lives out, honestly.
So there will always be a used car market - it simply would be pointless to start scrapping all the cars from 2005-2012 as their lease deals are running out.
Also the argument between daemon and VG, sort your lives out, honestly.
Earthdweller said:
I think he is in for a shock down the line as are many others
I don't know what effect it will have on used market .. can't see it being positive in the long term
Where's the "shock" going to be - sudden large increase in monthly cost?I don't know what effect it will have on used market .. can't see it being positive in the long term
I don't see a massive problem - if the worst comes to the worst he can go back to having older cars. After all they'll be cheaper if the used market crashes.
ex1 said:
Wilmslowboy said:
Hell27 said:
Been watching this thread with interest - getting a new lease car in about 3 weeks so have just put my 5 series on the trader with 20 pictures. I was going to go down the WBAC route but figured I'd lose hundreds on the odd dent and scratch. We'll see how I get on - it's got a LOT of service history so ideally this will appeal.
might be worth trying https://www.tootle.co.uk/heard a few peeps had good results through it....
A waste of time with no interest or very poor offers.
Sheepshanks said:
Where's the "shock" going to be - sudden large increase in monthly cost?
I don't see a massive problem - if the worst comes to the worst he can go back to having older cars. After all they'll be cheaper if the used market crashes.
Indeed that is it .. but it's not just him it's thousands of others too, which is where the bubble is going to burst I don't see a massive problem - if the worst comes to the worst he can go back to having older cars. After all they'll be cheaper if the used market crashes.
So .. he had a BMW which he owned outright and traded it against the renegade for £8k and is now paying roughly £130-140pcm x48 on a Pcp
He believes that he will get his £8k back when he trades it for another one, however he is likely to lose all of that 8k over the balloon payment if indeed it is even worth the balloon payment !
He believes that he will walk back into the dealer and walk away with another one at the end of the pcp for £140 pcm
When he is asked for £500 pcm or £8k-9k in cash to continue I don't think he is going to be very pleased !
Ditto the Peugeot .. owned outright but prob only worth £500
He swooped the fiesta for an identical one .. his payments stayed the same but his term went from 24-48 months
He is convinced that he can swop again in 18 months and keep the same payments
My opinion is that he is deluded .. but has it been Miss-sold to him ?
Inflation is up . Interest rates are only going to go one way
So for him he has two cars that in a couple of years he won't be able to afford .. in isolation it's his tough
Multiplied by hundreds of thousands just like my mate and there is your problem
I can see why people do this, this week I need to take my Mercedes in to have the codes read to see whats up with the suspension, probably a pump and my sons Astra is being towed home today with a suspected ECU fault, both have become my problem, along with the faulty washing machine I now have in bits in the garage awaiting new carbon brushes.
All a pain in the arse and I am fairly practical so what chance does 19 year old girl stand with no mechanical skills, knowledge or aptitude, can see why that £140 a month Fiat 500 is attractive.
I spent £200 on suspension bits for the Merc last month to cure the creaking, plus hours of my time changing ball joints, needed a special tool, will need to stick the pump on or whatever else, got to take it in to have the codes read, got to sort the Astra sending the ECU off to get it fixed. Not saying older cars are necessarily unreliable but I cant make it someone elses problem, with a lease, always under warranty, everything is new and shouldn't need replacing.
Point being, it is perhaps more expensive but it smooths out the peaks and troughs of owning a car.
All a pain in the arse and I am fairly practical so what chance does 19 year old girl stand with no mechanical skills, knowledge or aptitude, can see why that £140 a month Fiat 500 is attractive.
I spent £200 on suspension bits for the Merc last month to cure the creaking, plus hours of my time changing ball joints, needed a special tool, will need to stick the pump on or whatever else, got to take it in to have the codes read, got to sort the Astra sending the ECU off to get it fixed. Not saying older cars are necessarily unreliable but I cant make it someone elses problem, with a lease, always under warranty, everything is new and shouldn't need replacing.
Point being, it is perhaps more expensive but it smooths out the peaks and troughs of owning a car.
J4CKO said:
I can see why people do this, this week I need to take my Mercedes in to have the codes read to see whats up with the suspension, probably a pump and my sons Astra is being towed home today with a suspected ECU fault, both have become my problem, along with the faulty washing machine I now have in bits in the garage awaiting new carbon brushes.
All a pain in the arse and I am fairly practical so what chance does 19 year old girl stand with no mechanical skills, knowledge or aptitude, can see why that £140 a month Fiat 500 is attractive.
I spent £200 on suspension bits for the Merc last month to cure the creaking, plus hours of my time changing ball joints, needed a special tool, will need to stick the pump on or whatever else, got to take it in to have the codes read, got to sort the Astra sending the ECU off to get it fixed. Not saying older cars are necessarily unreliable but I cant make it someone elses problem, with a lease, always under warranty, everything is new and shouldn't need replacing.
Point being, it is perhaps more expensive but it smooths out the peaks and troughs of owning a car.
It is very difficult to argue with this logic.....All a pain in the arse and I am fairly practical so what chance does 19 year old girl stand with no mechanical skills, knowledge or aptitude, can see why that £140 a month Fiat 500 is attractive.
I spent £200 on suspension bits for the Merc last month to cure the creaking, plus hours of my time changing ball joints, needed a special tool, will need to stick the pump on or whatever else, got to take it in to have the codes read, got to sort the Astra sending the ECU off to get it fixed. Not saying older cars are necessarily unreliable but I cant make it someone elses problem, with a lease, always under warranty, everything is new and shouldn't need replacing.
Point being, it is perhaps more expensive but it smooths out the peaks and troughs of owning a car.
I am a big fan of bangernomics (& of the old school mentality, it you dont have at least 70%, you can't afford it) but rates/PCP deals where they are, make it very difficult to argue against....
Worst case, when your deal comes to an end, you can;t renew & you have lost some money but by then 2nd hand market will be flooded & you pick yourself a banger - in short net-net, you haven't lost as much as one may have originally thought...
I fear that those (like myself) who don't really think with the short term mindset may turn out to be the losers (at least from the perspective of owning a car that you probably could/will never afford otherwise)....
Earthdweller said:
He believes that he will get his £8k back when he trades it for another one, however he is likely to lose all of that 8k over the balloon payment if indeed it is even worth the balloon payment !
He believes that he will walk back into the dealer and walk away with another one at the end of the pcp for £140 pcm
When he is asked for £500 pcm or £8k-9k in cash to continue I don't think he is going to be very pleased !
A lot of people do think they're going to get the deposit back - but it's not usually £8K!He believes that he will walk back into the dealer and walk away with another one at the end of the pcp for £140 pcm
When he is asked for £500 pcm or £8k-9k in cash to continue I don't think he is going to be very pleased !
It's likely that similar will happen as did on his Fiesta - except that he might have to add a bit of cash and pay a bit more per month. It's not going to be horrendous though - even starting from nothing a quick Google shows Renegades can be had for a couple of £K and £160/mth.
Sheepshanks said:
Earthdweller said:
He believes that he will get his £8k back when he trades it for another one, however he is likely to lose all of that 8k over the balloon payment if indeed it is even worth the balloon payment !
He believes that he will walk back into the dealer and walk away with another one at the end of the pcp for £140 pcm
When he is asked for £500 pcm or £8k-9k in cash to continue I don't think he is going to be very pleased !
A lot of people do think they're going to get the deposit back - but it's not usually £8K!He believes that he will walk back into the dealer and walk away with another one at the end of the pcp for £140 pcm
When he is asked for £500 pcm or £8k-9k in cash to continue I don't think he is going to be very pleased !
It's likely that similar will happen as did on his Fiesta - except that he might have to add a bit of cash and pay a bit more per month. It's not going to be horrendous though - even starting from nothing a quick Google shows Renegades can be had for a couple of £K and £160/mth.
It is amazing how many PCP's are mis-sold too, people still believe that they are going to get the MFV back to use as a deposit on the next car, it is basic maths, yet they don't grasp it, it is less prevalent now, but it still happens.
When we took over the garage that I know work in; 10 odd years ago, we spent a good few years regularly speaking to people who had been mis-sold their PCP, many sales people move around so tell people what they want to hear, get the sale knowing full well they won't be there in 3 years time to mop up the crap, again over the years this is less prevalent now.
Earthdweller said:
So for him he has two cars that in a couple of years he won't be able to afford .. in isolation it's his tough
Multiplied by hundreds of thousands just like my mate and there is your problem
Why wont he be able to afford them?Multiplied by hundreds of thousands just like my mate and there is your problem
At worst he'll just PCP / PCH whatever car is on "offer" - and there are plenty of offers about.
If push comes to shove he can revert back to buying an older car.
J4CKO said:
I can see why people do this, this week I need to take my Mercedes in to have the codes read to see whats up with the suspension, probably a pump and my sons Astra is being towed home today with a suspected ECU fault, both have become my problem, along with the faulty washing machine I now have in bits in the garage awaiting new carbon brushes.
All a pain in the arse and I am fairly practical so what chance does 19 year old girl stand with no mechanical skills, knowledge or aptitude, can see why that £140 a month Fiat 500 is attractive.
I spent £200 on suspension bits for the Merc last month to cure the creaking, plus hours of my time changing ball joints, needed a special tool, will need to stick the pump on or whatever else, got to take it in to have the codes read, got to sort the Astra sending the ECU off to get it fixed. Not saying older cars are necessarily unreliable but I cant make it someone elses problem, with a lease, always under warranty, everything is new and shouldn't need replacing.
Point being, it is perhaps more expensive but it smooths out the peaks and troughs of owning a car.
I'd a similar situation - i've been running an older car as a second car and most recently that was a Volvo S40 2.5T T5. Great car 225BHP, etc, etc.All a pain in the arse and I am fairly practical so what chance does 19 year old girl stand with no mechanical skills, knowledge or aptitude, can see why that £140 a month Fiat 500 is attractive.
I spent £200 on suspension bits for the Merc last month to cure the creaking, plus hours of my time changing ball joints, needed a special tool, will need to stick the pump on or whatever else, got to take it in to have the codes read, got to sort the Astra sending the ECU off to get it fixed. Not saying older cars are necessarily unreliable but I cant make it someone elses problem, with a lease, always under warranty, everything is new and shouldn't need replacing.
Point being, it is perhaps more expensive but it smooths out the peaks and troughs of owning a car.
It was off the road 6 weeks in total in the first 5 months of the year with two significant faults. Real ball ache awkward stuff that required a lot of chasing to sort out, worry that it couldnt be sorted out and specific (and expensive) parts from volvo and for one of them a trip to a Volvo specialist.
Then there was the 25mpg fuel habit, £300 a year road tax, etc, etc.
Just too much hassle to drive something older and "interesting" so i got rid.
Although i ended up buying a 2016 Passat TDI that i plan to run long term (60mpg and £20 road tax), it wouldnt have been hard to justify a PCH or PCP payment on a new car, just to get away from the hassle.
Earthdweller said:
What concerns me is a change in mindset
I know numerous people that are now leasing/pcp new cars where previously they used to buy used cars
They all say they would never have an used car again
As an example friend with a 6 yo BMW and an 8 yo Peugeot traded both, first for a renegade and the second for a fiesta
Just over a year into the fiesta garage rang and asked him if he wanted a new one .. no money down and same monthlies .. so the 15 plate became a 66 plate
He's delighted, no service no tyres ... says it's just like a phone contract !
Scary thing is his mindset seems to be becoming the norm
I think he is in for a shock down the line as are many others
I don't know what effect it will have on used market .. can't see it being positive in the long term
It sort of reminds me of the Irish property boom a decade ago where every Tom dick and paddy started building houses and buying to let .. all to people that didn't exist
I know loads including family that got badly burned
From the outside I see the same sort of bubble building in cars
After all you pay a fortune for a smartphone and two years later it's worth shag all and gets chucked in a drawer at home .. if people are seeing cars the same way I can't see it ending well at all
Your dead right, Its the greedy greasy financial institutions at it again stitching people up, but if your stupid enough then hell mend you. I know numerous people that are now leasing/pcp new cars where previously they used to buy used cars
They all say they would never have an used car again
As an example friend with a 6 yo BMW and an 8 yo Peugeot traded both, first for a renegade and the second for a fiesta
Just over a year into the fiesta garage rang and asked him if he wanted a new one .. no money down and same monthlies .. so the 15 plate became a 66 plate
He's delighted, no service no tyres ... says it's just like a phone contract !
Scary thing is his mindset seems to be becoming the norm
I think he is in for a shock down the line as are many others
I don't know what effect it will have on used market .. can't see it being positive in the long term
It sort of reminds me of the Irish property boom a decade ago where every Tom dick and paddy started building houses and buying to let .. all to people that didn't exist
I know loads including family that got badly burned
From the outside I see the same sort of bubble building in cars
After all you pay a fortune for a smartphone and two years later it's worth shag all and gets chucked in a drawer at home .. if people are seeing cars the same way I can't see it ending well at all
eatontrifles said:
ex1 said:
Wilmslowboy said:
Hell27 said:
Been watching this thread with interest - getting a new lease car in about 3 weeks so have just put my 5 series on the trader with 20 pictures. I was going to go down the WBAC route but figured I'd lose hundreds on the odd dent and scratch. We'll see how I get on - it's got a LOT of service history so ideally this will appeal.
might be worth trying https://www.tootle.co.uk/heard a few peeps had good results through it....
A waste of time with no interest or very poor offers.
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