E46 M3 CSL and others falling in price....
Discussion
Yipper said:
Select parts of the UK car market have been rising in price since ~2011, so it is no surprise to see some models taking a breather after ~6 years of upswing.
What's more, the US / UK stockmarkets are peaking, and UK interest rates are about to rise in the next few weeks.
The question now is whether cars have become like the housing market. Pause for a year or two, and then start rising again after Brexit talks are done.
Difference is you have to have a house a car is a luxury fundamental different market fundamentals especially whe sWhat's more, the US / UK stockmarkets are peaking, and UK interest rates are about to rise in the next few weeks.
The question now is whether cars have become like the housing market. Pause for a year or two, and then start rising again after Brexit talks are done.
t hits the fan. LP670 said:
A market crash cant come soon enough as far as im concerned, mainly because im sick of hearing people talking about cars as an investment rather than the enjoyment they give.
+ 1Just take 1 look at how many "investment/price/values" threads there are in the M Power forum at the moment, its completely destroying the car market for real enthusiasts who just want to drive.
Having seen a £50k Z3M coupe for sale I think it's about time. Some people will get stung, but there are also plenty of people who bought these sorts of cars when they were cheap and have made a mint. Not to mention it may encourage some people to get out there and drive these sorts of cars.
JakeT said:
Having seen a £50k Z3M coupe for sale I think it's about time. Some people will get stung, but there are also plenty of people who bought these sorts of cars when they were cheap and have made a mint. Not to mention it may encourage some people to get out there and drive these sorts of cars.
Isn't that the thing yes some losers but then conversltvloads of people have made a decent return and got out. Jonstar said:
LP670 said:
A market crash cant come soon enough as far as im concerned, mainly because im sick of hearing people talking about cars as an investment rather than the enjoyment they give.
+ 1Just take 1 look at how many "investment/price/values" threads there are in the M Power forum at the moment, its completely destroying the car market for real enthusiasts who just want to drive.
Just out of interest, how old are you all?
I'm 22 and remember when I was in college I was looking at the likes of Lancia Fulvia's and Alfa Romeo Guilias/GT Juniors etc and you could buy average usable conditioned ones for about £5000 and £12000 respectively... Flash forward to now when I'm out of my apprenticeship and am in a situation where I could buy one of those two cars if they stuck at their price from 2011ish, I find that I've been completely blown out of the water with the prices these two cars have rocketed up to. And obviously other cars have appreciated massively in the past 6 or so years aswell.
As I've been reading on forums like PHs for the past couple of years there have been loads of people saying that 'the bubble will burst' at some point but I've always been pessimistic about this happening as rather than seeing peaks and troughs in prices I've only ever seen prices increase to the point where my dream cars have doubled or even tripled in the space of about six years.
So how have you all seen the market react over the years? Does this happen every ten years or so? Or is it related to recessions/interest rates as another poster has said above?
Cheers, Sam
I'm 22 and remember when I was in college I was looking at the likes of Lancia Fulvia's and Alfa Romeo Guilias/GT Juniors etc and you could buy average usable conditioned ones for about £5000 and £12000 respectively... Flash forward to now when I'm out of my apprenticeship and am in a situation where I could buy one of those two cars if they stuck at their price from 2011ish, I find that I've been completely blown out of the water with the prices these two cars have rocketed up to. And obviously other cars have appreciated massively in the past 6 or so years aswell.
As I've been reading on forums like PHs for the past couple of years there have been loads of people saying that 'the bubble will burst' at some point but I've always been pessimistic about this happening as rather than seeing peaks and troughs in prices I've only ever seen prices increase to the point where my dream cars have doubled or even tripled in the space of about six years.
So how have you all seen the market react over the years? Does this happen every ten years or so? Or is it related to recessions/interest rates as another poster has said above?
Cheers, Sam
smm3008 said:
Just out of interest, how old are you all?
I'm 22 and remember when I was in college I was looking at the likes of Lancia Fulvia's and Alfa Romeo Guilias/GT Juniors etc and you could buy average usable conditioned ones for about £5000 and £12000 respectively... Flash forward to now when I'm out of my apprenticeship and am in a situation where I could buy one of those two cars if they stuck at their price from 2011ish, I find that I've been completely blown out of the water with the prices these two cars have rocketed up to. And obviously other cars have appreciated massively in the past 6 or so years aswell.
As I've been reading on forums like PHs for the past couple of years there have been loads of people saying that 'the bubble will burst' at some point but I've always been pessimistic about this happening as rather than seeing peaks and troughs in prices I've only ever seen prices increase to the point where my dream cars have doubled or even tripled in the space of about six years.
So how have you all seen the market react over the years? Does this happen every ten years or so? Or is it related to recessions/interest rates as another poster has said above?
Cheers, Sam
Firstly it's a luxery investment not a necessity so worst cars is its value is its way in cost. I'm 22 and remember when I was in college I was looking at the likes of Lancia Fulvia's and Alfa Romeo Guilias/GT Juniors etc and you could buy average usable conditioned ones for about £5000 and £12000 respectively... Flash forward to now when I'm out of my apprenticeship and am in a situation where I could buy one of those two cars if they stuck at their price from 2011ish, I find that I've been completely blown out of the water with the prices these two cars have rocketed up to. And obviously other cars have appreciated massively in the past 6 or so years aswell.
As I've been reading on forums like PHs for the past couple of years there have been loads of people saying that 'the bubble will burst' at some point but I've always been pessimistic about this happening as rather than seeing peaks and troughs in prices I've only ever seen prices increase to the point where my dream cars have doubled or even tripled in the space of about six years.
So how have you all seen the market react over the years? Does this happen every ten years or so? Or is it related to recessions/interest rates as another poster has said above?
Cheers, Sam
The crash in the early 90's was savage really brutal. Prices had been sky rocketing for years with F40's e types going nuts. Then suddenly confidence went from the market. People had to sell no one wanted to buy as noine knew where the floor of this crash was.
Stocks and shares look at the banks 2001-2009 gives you an idea.
However if you don't need to sell it's fine - but I don't buy that arguement if you don't need to sell but are in a falling market it's a chance to hop into a better exotic than you currently have.
My mate has bought a Porsche 997.1 GT3RS just recently at what many may consider top of the range prices (though cheaper than what some are asking).
Is it over valued? It's hard to say so when the car is simply so good on track. It doesn't sit well with me that it's probably £35k more than what it would have cost new but when you see what else the money gets you-I can't feel it isn't worth it. Drive one and you might see why they are worth it.
But it has inevitably made the rest of us start looking a other GT3s and to be honest there do seem to be some reasonably priced ones out there, especially as it's prime track day season and prices should be buoyant.
OK, the blu-de-islands 996.1 GT3 I did a pre purchase inspection is now up at over double what I could have got it for in 2010 but if it's overvalued now, it was probably undervalued back then.
If a nice 996 GT3 was around £50k now I think it'd be right, maybe a 997 GT3 at £70k and the RS models all £100k+? The thing is there have been the odd one in that price range over the last few months. OK they maybe aren't the most desirable specs but they are out there.
As for the M3csl, I think I sold mine with 33k on the clock for somewhere just below £25k back then (2009), nice cars but not £50k ones imho.
We drive the GT3RS on the track as much as we can-Oulton, Nürburgring and Spa so far this year. It would just be nice to see some more out there lapping...
Is it over valued? It's hard to say so when the car is simply so good on track. It doesn't sit well with me that it's probably £35k more than what it would have cost new but when you see what else the money gets you-I can't feel it isn't worth it. Drive one and you might see why they are worth it.
But it has inevitably made the rest of us start looking a other GT3s and to be honest there do seem to be some reasonably priced ones out there, especially as it's prime track day season and prices should be buoyant.
OK, the blu-de-islands 996.1 GT3 I did a pre purchase inspection is now up at over double what I could have got it for in 2010 but if it's overvalued now, it was probably undervalued back then.
If a nice 996 GT3 was around £50k now I think it'd be right, maybe a 997 GT3 at £70k and the RS models all £100k+? The thing is there have been the odd one in that price range over the last few months. OK they maybe aren't the most desirable specs but they are out there.
As for the M3csl, I think I sold mine with 33k on the clock for somewhere just below £25k back then (2009), nice cars but not £50k ones imho.
We drive the GT3RS on the track as much as we can-Oulton, Nürburgring and Spa so far this year. It would just be nice to see some more out there lapping...
smm3008 said:
Just out of interest, how old are you all?
I'm 22 and remember when I was in college I was looking at the likes of Lancia Fulvia's and Alfa Romeo Guilias/GT Juniors etc and you could buy average usable conditioned ones for about £5000 and £12000 respectively... Flash forward to now when I'm out of my apprenticeship and am in a situation where I could buy one of those two cars if they stuck at their price from 2011ish, I find that I've been completely blown out of the water with the prices these two cars have rocketed up to. And obviously other cars have appreciated massively in the past 6 or so years aswell.
As I've been reading on forums like PHs for the past couple of years there have been loads of people saying that 'the bubble will burst' at some point but I've always been pessimistic about this happening as rather than seeing peaks and troughs in prices I've only ever seen prices increase to the point where my dream cars have doubled or even tripled in the space of about six years.
So how have you all seen the market react over the years? Does this happen every ten years or so? Or is it related to recessions/interest rates as another poster has said above?
Cheers, Sam
Look at testarossa, 328 and countach values for the 80's bubble (caused by the stockmarket bubble and bonus frenzy), then the values collapsed - now they've been bid back up again. As other's have said, because they're being used as a financial instrument then people will try and cash out at the peak - but since the only buyers underpinning these speculative prices are other speculators then there are no buyers. so values will keep dropping until they hit prices 'real' enthusiasts are prepared to pay. The normal ferrari market had the 348 valued at 28-32k, and 512TR at 45-50 - so I doubt any true ferrari enthusiast is going to spend brand new 488 money on a TR - and serious collectors don't 'need' to buy and will sit it out until the market returns to normality.I'm 22 and remember when I was in college I was looking at the likes of Lancia Fulvia's and Alfa Romeo Guilias/GT Juniors etc and you could buy average usable conditioned ones for about £5000 and £12000 respectively... Flash forward to now when I'm out of my apprenticeship and am in a situation where I could buy one of those two cars if they stuck at their price from 2011ish, I find that I've been completely blown out of the water with the prices these two cars have rocketed up to. And obviously other cars have appreciated massively in the past 6 or so years aswell.
As I've been reading on forums like PHs for the past couple of years there have been loads of people saying that 'the bubble will burst' at some point but I've always been pessimistic about this happening as rather than seeing peaks and troughs in prices I've only ever seen prices increase to the point where my dream cars have doubled or even tripled in the space of about six years.
So how have you all seen the market react over the years? Does this happen every ten years or so? Or is it related to recessions/interest rates as another poster has said above?
Cheers, Sam
Unlike alot of asset classes these things have costly holding costs - insurance servicing, detailing that all need to be kept up to hold their value and are highly prone to massive changes in market desirability.
I think the low asset yields is driving irrational market exuberance - the ultimate price cap is the fact that if you can buy a brand new F12 for 300k, why would you pay more for a 512TR? - as a thing to drive as opposed to a store of value. - 600kfor a speciale aperta is just nonsense pricing - the car is neither rare or special enough to warrant that kind of premium given ferrari will do a 488 aperta, and there is a 430 - these are not 1 of handful GTO's with racing pedigree, they are tuned up stock cars with stickers and bodykits, and bidding up cars that were deemed terrible like the 348 just because they have the badge is a prime example of a asset bubble - at some point they'll want that cash back at which point the greater fool theory kicks in and you find your 348 is worth only what a true 348 is willing to pay. which historically was as low as 28k.
so yes I think it is cyclical driven by investors trying to find any assets they can get returns on due low interest rates and too much cash sloshing about. All it will really take is some tax changes and a change in sentiment and there will be a flight to liquidity.
LP670 said:
A market crash cant come soon enough as far as im concerned, mainly because im sick of hearing people talking about cars as an investment rather than the enjoyment they give.
+2.Over the past few years I've finally got to the position of being able to look to buy interesting cars upto around £30k, & pretty much all the models I desired 5 years ago have skyrocketed. This has flown down to all levels - even the under the radar relative ruinous bargains like the Maserati 4200 have become just too pricey/haven't depreciated sufficiently to take a punt.
smm3008 said:
Just out of interest, how old are you all?
I'm 22 and remember when I was in college I was looking at the likes of Lancia Fulvia's and Alfa Romeo Guilias/GT Juniors etc and you could buy average usable conditioned ones for about £5000 and £12000 respectively... Flash forward to now when I'm out of my apprenticeship and am in a situation where I could buy one of those two cars if they stuck at their price from 2011ish, I find that I've been completely blown out of the water with the prices these two cars have rocketed up to. And obviously other cars have appreciated massively in the past 6 or so years aswell.
I'm 25. At around 2010/2011 I had a massive 'To Own' list of usable modern classics that could have been had easily for sub £5000, but I was advised against shacking myself up with high insurance and running costs on a big modern classic whilst earning an apprentice wage , "Car don't make you money" and "They'll be plenty for cars once you're older and insurance is cheaper" where common comments by the older generation.I'm 22 and remember when I was in college I was looking at the likes of Lancia Fulvia's and Alfa Romeo Guilias/GT Juniors etc and you could buy average usable conditioned ones for about £5000 and £12000 respectively... Flash forward to now when I'm out of my apprenticeship and am in a situation where I could buy one of those two cars if they stuck at their price from 2011ish, I find that I've been completely blown out of the water with the prices these two cars have rocketed up to. And obviously other cars have appreciated massively in the past 6 or so years aswell.
Now I am of an age where I can afford the insurance and running costs, just about every single car I had ear marked to own has appreciated way out of my range to really be justifiable as a hobby/weekend car. Then to cap it off, interesting newer stuff then hasn't depreciated to fill the holes in the market. Values of 10-15 year old performance stuff is still broadly speaking the same as they were 3-5 years ago, even if they haven't been ear marked by speculators yet.
As someone who loves older cars, I find reading through the barge and classic 1-5k threads quite frankly depressing these days. The selection of cars have gotten much smaller, the examples roper and the genuine low mile, well looked after bargains effectively none extent, because they are quickly snapped up by dealers and sold up with a massive mark-up.
I've gone from a guy that would change his car every 3-6 months to a bloke that is actively hoarding his current fleet. Not because I love them and want to keep them forever, but because they I'd have to pay at least twice the sale value of each my cars to get something vaguely comparable. There is also the fear that exactly like the 205 GTIs and E30 BMWs I did own pre-bubble, prices will explode out of nowhere meaning that I'll never be able to justify buying another.
Who knows what will happen but one thing that has changed is that older cars are not made anymore and with new cars in general being bland, there will be a market for interesting older stuff.
If Sterling comes down, demand from other countries may increase e.g. HK. Lots of Elises went to mainland Europe when the Pound was weak, for instance.
If Sterling comes down, demand from other countries may increase e.g. HK. Lots of Elises went to mainland Europe when the Pound was weak, for instance.
SidewaysSi said:
Who knows what will happen but one thing that has changed is that older cars are not made anymore and with new cars in general being bland, there will be a market for interesting older stuff.
If Sterling comes down, demand from other countries may increase e.g. HK. Lots of Elises went to mainland Europe when the Pound was weak, for instance.
Supply restricted- well more and more are becoming "classics" apparently. If Sterling comes down, demand from other countries may increase e.g. HK. Lots of Elises went to mainland Europe when the Pound was weak, for instance.
Older ones granted.
However garage queens in the main for any big £
ging84 said:
History has taught us that when car markets crash, they crash hard and fast, and people always say this time will be different.
I suspect this time it could be different, it could crash faster than ever before thanks to the internet.
And i suspect the Porsche market could be hit hardest of them all. The rate that 964s increased in price was meteoric, could be the case that the quicker the rise the quicker the fall.I suspect this time it could be different, it could crash faster than ever before thanks to the internet.
Edited by LP670 on Saturday 24th June 22:52
Welshbeef said:
Yipper said:
Select parts of the UK car market have been rising in price since ~2011, so it is no surprise to see some models taking a breather after ~6 years of upswing.
What's more, the US / UK stockmarkets are peaking, and UK interest rates are about to rise in the next few weeks.
The question now is whether cars have become like the housing market. Pause for a year or two, and then start rising again after Brexit talks are done.
Difference is you have to have a house a car is a luxury fundamental different market fundamentals especially whe sWhat's more, the US / UK stockmarkets are peaking, and UK interest rates are about to rise in the next few weeks.
The question now is whether cars have become like the housing market. Pause for a year or two, and then start rising again after Brexit talks are done.
t hits the fan. It's difficult to know what to wish for as part of what makes owning performance cars realistic is the relatively flat depreciation.
It does seem to have reached fever pitch over the past 12m or so. Can't say I see many value propositions anymore whereas there were always some bits and pieces previously (VX220, Z3M Roadster, Clio Trophy spring to mind)
A rebasing, if it occurs, would hopefully just bring prices down in one hit and depreciation would continue to be flat. Might be able to get that R8 then!!
Similar to other posters I hankered after a 996 Turbo when I was younger. Back then £25k got a minter. Now I'm older, wiser and a little better off they have doubled and out of reach for now.
It does seem to have reached fever pitch over the past 12m or so. Can't say I see many value propositions anymore whereas there were always some bits and pieces previously (VX220, Z3M Roadster, Clio Trophy spring to mind)
A rebasing, if it occurs, would hopefully just bring prices down in one hit and depreciation would continue to be flat. Might be able to get that R8 then!!
Similar to other posters I hankered after a 996 Turbo when I was younger. Back then £25k got a minter. Now I'm older, wiser and a little better off they have doubled and out of reach for now.
I did notice the CSLs getting cheaper.
I bought a 205 and recently sold it for what I paid. I could have got more but wanted a quick sale.
However, servicing, keeping it and general deterioration didn't really make it a good investment. The more expensive they are, the more they cost.
I don't regret it because I bought it to drive, but I did have visions of it being worth more. I wouldn't put money in car as an investment
I bought a 205 and recently sold it for what I paid. I could have got more but wanted a quick sale.
However, servicing, keeping it and general deterioration didn't really make it a good investment. The more expensive they are, the more they cost.
I don't regret it because I bought it to drive, but I did have visions of it being worth more. I wouldn't put money in car as an investment
CrouchingWayne said:
It's difficult to know what to wish for as part of what makes owning performance cars realistic is the relatively flat depreciation.
It does seem to have reached fever pitch over the past 12m or so. Can't say I see many value propositions anymore whereas there were always some bits and pieces previously (VX220, Z3M Roadster, Clio Trophy spring to mind)
A rebasing, if it occurs, would hopefully just bring prices down in one hit and depreciation would continue to be flat. Might be able to get that R8 then!!
Similar to other posters I hankered after a 996 Turbo when I was younger. Back then £25k got a minter. Now I'm older, wiser and a little better off they have doubled and out of reach for now.
996 turbo's doubling in value might be an exaggeration.It does seem to have reached fever pitch over the past 12m or so. Can't say I see many value propositions anymore whereas there were always some bits and pieces previously (VX220, Z3M Roadster, Clio Trophy spring to mind)
A rebasing, if it occurs, would hopefully just bring prices down in one hit and depreciation would continue to be flat. Might be able to get that R8 then!!
Similar to other posters I hankered after a 996 Turbo when I was younger. Back then £25k got a minter. Now I'm older, wiser and a little better off they have doubled and out of reach for now.
I paid 29k, worth what, 39k.
I've easily spent that on it since 2013.
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