E46 M3 CSL and others falling in price....
Discussion
rubystone said:
Yipper said:
Select parts of the UK car market have been rising in price since ~2011, so it is no surprise to see some models taking a breather after ~6 years of upswing.
What's more, the US / UK stockmarkets are peaking, and UK interest rates are about to rise in the next few weeks.
The question now is whether cars have become like the housing market. Pause for a year or two, and then start rising again after Brexit talks are done.
I guarantee U.K. interest rates are not going to rise in the next few weeks. Who has been feeding you this crap? Certainly not Carney!What's more, the US / UK stockmarkets are peaking, and UK interest rates are about to rise in the next few weeks.
The question now is whether cars have become like the housing market. Pause for a year or two, and then start rising again after Brexit talks are done.
The situation has changed significantly in the past few days.
The BoE is currently split almost 50-50 on interest rates, at least one key member is now publicly saying a rate rise is needed, inflation is at its highest level for years, and de-immigration from Brexit is starting to tighten the labour market and increase wages.
An interest rate rise is on the way in the Aug to Nov 2017 window.
If i can cut through his overly complex, jargon filled response hes saying that car investment is not a standard asset class and therefore doesn't follow normal investment rules.
If this is what hes saying, i say its irrelevant. Cars are hanging around, prices are slightly depressed and rates will go up in/by 2018.
Some will not want to get wet and will start to 'dump' stock on the market making the situation worse.
Happy to be reminded of this, in 18 months time.
If this is what hes saying, i say its irrelevant. Cars are hanging around, prices are slightly depressed and rates will go up in/by 2018.
Some will not want to get wet and will start to 'dump' stock on the market making the situation worse.
Happy to be reminded of this, in 18 months time.
VonSenger said:
If i can cut through his overly complex, jargon filled response hes saying that car investment is not a standard asset class and therefore doesn't follow normal investment rules.
If this is what hes saying, i say its irrelevant. Cars are hanging around, prices are slightly depressed and rates will go up in/by 2018.
Some will not want to get wet and will start to 'dump' stock on the market making the situation worse.
Happy to be reminded of this, in 18 months time.
It's not jargon filled, it's basic risk management. How significant the asset firesale (shortening your sentences) will be, is open to debate. I suspect certain cars are going to get spanked. A 0.25 to 0.5 increase in rates over the next 18 to 24 months won't get investors out of cars, monies still cheap. Sentiment will, and that's driven in part by overly optimistic valuations.If this is what hes saying, i say its irrelevant. Cars are hanging around, prices are slightly depressed and rates will go up in/by 2018.
Some will not want to get wet and will start to 'dump' stock on the market making the situation worse.
Happy to be reminded of this, in 18 months time.
As for Yippers nonsense the MPC June vote was 5-3 to hold rates, which is not 50% (62.5 vs. 37.5%).
s m said:
lord trumpton said:
It is madness really the way some cars rocket in 'value'
Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.
In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.
It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years
According to the experts on here you should be able to buy it for £8k again ( or one similar ) in a matter of months......Back in 2010 I bought an Imola red Z3M coupe for £8k - spent time and money making it mint and when I sold it then I got around £12k and thought I'd done well. I'd said at the time to the chap who bought it to give me a call when he sold it.
In 2015 he offered it back to me for £20k and I turned it down.
It sold again recently for £28k and increase of 350% in 5 years
Of course, there's a thread every few months saying this so bide your time
I'm currently looking at putting my V8 Vantage (2007) up for sale and have been watching the market closely. It sits in the ~£30-33k sector of the market for them which hasn't really moved in 5 years or so. Watching the market carefully, cars similar to mine both private and trade have been hanging around/prices steadily decreasing recently. There are even a few cars below the magical £30k price floor. When I bought mine the decent cars were moving on fairly quickly and none were advertised under £30k.
I don't think vantages are directly related to the wider bubble, certainly not appreciating like ferrari's/porsche's, but I think there are some good reasons for the recent slowdown. The great unknowns of brexit, the recent election result/weak government/possibility of another GE in the autumn with a real possibility of Corbyn being PM mean that the sort of person that has £30k cash to privately buy a sports car would be wise to hold off. I reckon they're likely to be the sort of person that labour's tax pledges and brexit related economic downturn would directly impact. That goes for similar cars in a similar price bracket.
Something else I've spotted is better examples of older models starting to overtake the lower end of newer improved models. E46 vs E92 M3's are a good example, even though the E46 is supposed to be a purer drive I would have difficulty buying one for the same money as a much newer, faster car. Same for DB7 vs V8 Vantages - DB7's used to be in the late teens £ but now good ones are overtaking cheaper v8's, which are a more modern and superior car. As we're talking about standard production cars here surely that can't continue forever!?
I don't think vantages are directly related to the wider bubble, certainly not appreciating like ferrari's/porsche's, but I think there are some good reasons for the recent slowdown. The great unknowns of brexit, the recent election result/weak government/possibility of another GE in the autumn with a real possibility of Corbyn being PM mean that the sort of person that has £30k cash to privately buy a sports car would be wise to hold off. I reckon they're likely to be the sort of person that labour's tax pledges and brexit related economic downturn would directly impact. That goes for similar cars in a similar price bracket.
Something else I've spotted is better examples of older models starting to overtake the lower end of newer improved models. E46 vs E92 M3's are a good example, even though the E46 is supposed to be a purer drive I would have difficulty buying one for the same money as a much newer, faster car. Same for DB7 vs V8 Vantages - DB7's used to be in the late teens £ but now good ones are overtaking cheaper v8's, which are a more modern and superior car. As we're talking about standard production cars here surely that can't continue forever!?
Edited by Shrimpvende on Sunday 25th June 18:13
5-3 says a lot. Especially when it's almost always been unanimous over recent years.
How much will it effect the car bubble? Only time will tell, but I've noticed a massive difference over the past 12 months. And long may it continue.
Will we see 355's for sub £50k next year? Unlikely but you'll certainly see a slowdown in the recent nonsense. 30k for a z3m, i mean seriously wtf???? They weren't particularly good when new and nothing has changed other than the speculators driving prices up.
I sold my csl for 37k, was it worth that? No way, in fact i replaced it with a perfectly capable, better, track prepped e46 m3. Only reason i saw in keeping it was the price rise. But i was realistic, modding it for track and keeping it on the road/track was going to negate any increases. Which is why most, up until recently have been stored away.
And thats what gets my goat, i hope its a wet, smelly downpour for those that have removed cars out of teach of true enthusiasts.
How much will it effect the car bubble? Only time will tell, but I've noticed a massive difference over the past 12 months. And long may it continue.
Will we see 355's for sub £50k next year? Unlikely but you'll certainly see a slowdown in the recent nonsense. 30k for a z3m, i mean seriously wtf???? They weren't particularly good when new and nothing has changed other than the speculators driving prices up.
I sold my csl for 37k, was it worth that? No way, in fact i replaced it with a perfectly capable, better, track prepped e46 m3. Only reason i saw in keeping it was the price rise. But i was realistic, modding it for track and keeping it on the road/track was going to negate any increases. Which is why most, up until recently have been stored away.
And thats what gets my goat, i hope its a wet, smelly downpour for those that have removed cars out of teach of true enthusiasts.
I've never really understood why depreciation is perceived to be the privilege of the motoring enthusiast and appreciation is attributed to hated "investors".
I think that many enthusiasts are actually the one accessing cheap money/pulling their money out of savings accounts and piling it into cars.
I'm not sure people lurking vulture like on the sidelines are any better or worse than the 'speculators'. It's just the are both willing prices in a different direction
I think that many enthusiasts are actually the one accessing cheap money/pulling their money out of savings accounts and piling it into cars.
I'm not sure people lurking vulture like on the sidelines are any better or worse than the 'speculators'. It's just the are both willing prices in a different direction
Shrimpvende said:
I'm currently looking at putting my V8 Vantage (2007) up for sale and have been watching the market closely. It sits in the ~£30-33k sector of the market for them which hasn't really moved in 5 years or so. Watching the market carefully, cars similar to mine both private and trade have been hanging around/prices steadily decreasing recently. There are even a few cars below the magical £30k price floor. When I bought mine the decent cars were moving on fairly quickly and none were advertised under £30k.
I don't think vantages are directly related to the wider bubble, certainly not appreciating like ferrari's/porsche's, but I think there are some good reasons for the recent slowdown. The great unknowns of brexit, the recent election result/weak government/possibility of another GE in the autumn with a real possibility of Corbyn being PM mean that the sort of person that has £30k cash to privately buy a sports car would be wise to hold off. I reckon they're likely to be the sort of person that labour's tax pledges and brexit related economic downturn would directly impact. That goes for similar cars in a similar price bracket.
Something else I've spotted is better examples of older models starting to overtake the lower end of newer improved models. E46 vs E92 M3's are a good example, even though the E46 is supposed to be a purer drive I would have difficulty buying one for the same money as a much newer, faster car. Same for DB7 vs V8 Vantages - DB7's used to be in the late teens £ but now good ones are overtaking cheaper v8's, which are a more modern and superior car. As we're talking about standard production cars here surely that can't continue forever!?
But the thing is, often the newer car is not the better one anymore.I don't think vantages are directly related to the wider bubble, certainly not appreciating like ferrari's/porsche's, but I think there are some good reasons for the recent slowdown. The great unknowns of brexit, the recent election result/weak government/possibility of another GE in the autumn with a real possibility of Corbyn being PM mean that the sort of person that has £30k cash to privately buy a sports car would be wise to hold off. I reckon they're likely to be the sort of person that labour's tax pledges and brexit related economic downturn would directly impact. That goes for similar cars in a similar price bracket.
Something else I've spotted is better examples of older models starting to overtake the lower end of newer improved models. E46 vs E92 M3's are a good example, even though the E46 is supposed to be a purer drive I would have difficulty buying one for the same money as a much newer, faster car. Same for DB7 vs V8 Vantages - DB7's used to be in the late teens £ but now good ones are overtaking cheaper v8's, which are a more modern and superior car. As we're talking about standard production cars here surely that can't continue forever!?
Edited by Shrimpvende on Sunday 25th June 18:13
Shrimpvende said:
I'm currently looking at putting my V8 Vantage (2007) up for sale and have been watching the market closely. It sits in the ~£30-33k sector of the market for them which hasn't really moved in 5 years or so. Watching the market carefully, cars similar to mine both private and trade have been hanging around/prices steadily decreasing recently. There are even a few cars below the magical £30k price floor. When I bought mine the decent cars were moving on fairly quickly and none were advertised under £30k.
I don't think vantages are directly related to the wider bubble, certainly not appreciating like ferrari's/porsche's, but I think there are some good reasons for the recent slowdown. The great unknowns of brexit, the recent election result/weak government/possibility of another GE in the autumn with a real possibility of Corbyn being PM mean that the sort of person that has £30k cash to privately buy a sports car would be wise to hold off. I reckon they're likely to be the sort of person that labour's tax pledges and brexit related economic downturn would directly impact. That goes for similar cars in a similar price bracket.
Something else I've spotted is better examples of older models starting to overtake the lower end of newer improved models. E46 vs E92 M3's are a good example, even though the E46 is supposed to be a purer drive I would have difficulty buying one for the same money as a much newer, faster car. Same for DB7 vs V8 Vantages - DB7's used to be in the late teens £ but now good ones are overtaking cheaper v8's, which are a more modern and superior car. As we're talking about standard production cars here surely that can't continue forever!?
You can't compare a V8 Vantage with a DB7. Or rather you can, because they're made by the same manufacturer, but that's where it stops. I don't think vantages are directly related to the wider bubble, certainly not appreciating like ferrari's/porsche's, but I think there are some good reasons for the recent slowdown. The great unknowns of brexit, the recent election result/weak government/possibility of another GE in the autumn with a real possibility of Corbyn being PM mean that the sort of person that has £30k cash to privately buy a sports car would be wise to hold off. I reckon they're likely to be the sort of person that labour's tax pledges and brexit related economic downturn would directly impact. That goes for similar cars in a similar price bracket.
Something else I've spotted is better examples of older models starting to overtake the lower end of newer improved models. E46 vs E92 M3's are a good example, even though the E46 is supposed to be a purer drive I would have difficulty buying one for the same money as a much newer, faster car. Same for DB7 vs V8 Vantages - DB7's used to be in the late teens £ but now good ones are overtaking cheaper v8's, which are a more modern and superior car. As we're talking about standard production cars here surely that can't continue forever!?
Edited by anonymous-user on Sunday 25th June 18:13
A DB7 is a 'better car' in every way than a DB6.
Which would you rather have?
I'm not suggesting for a minute that the 7 will be held in such a high regard than the previous DB models but it did save Aston (which car didn't, I suppose) and whilst it was mainly Jag sourced is that such a bad thing? It's rare compared to the 2005 V8 Vantage - they produced more of that in one year than the total span of the DB7. The only let down is how close the DB9 and Vantage is in correlation to the 7 in terms of price, of course you're going to consider the newer two, but history may decide that the DB7 is worth having, remember it was once hailed as the most beautiful car in the world..
And let us not forget the Cygnet. Apparently this Toyota hatchback with a leather gear lever and an Aston badge glued just so is worth £30k? Really? It seems rarity really is worth something then.
Ferrari is a different matter. I don't think we'll see swathes of money wiped from them - both at the bottom and top of the ranges - but when you have folk asking £40k+ for a Mondial, unarguably the worst Ferrari in terms of looks and image, (which was once not that long ago a £15k car) it's time to question where the market really is IMO.
CS Garth said:
I've never really understood why depreciation is perceived to be the privilege of the motoring enthusiast and appreciation is attributed to hated "investors".
I think that many enthusiasts are actually the one accessing cheap money/pulling their money out of savings accounts and piling it into cars.
I'm not sure people lurking vulture like on the sidelines are any better or worse than the 'speculators'. It's just the are both willing prices in a different direction
I think some definitely are enthusiasts. But i don't think most are. I think that many enthusiasts are actually the one accessing cheap money/pulling their money out of savings accounts and piling it into cars.
I'm not sure people lurking vulture like on the sidelines are any better or worse than the 'speculators'. It's just the are both willing prices in a different direction
Im not in a position to benefit as I'm swamped with school fees for the next decade, but i know some true enthusiasts who are totally locked out of stuff they hanker after.
Seems a little unfair. But i suppose life is unfair.
DanielSan said:
LP670 said:
A market crash cant come soon enough as far as im concerned, mainly because im sick of hearing people talking about cars as an investment rather than the enjoyment they give.
This, this, this and this!I'm fed up that all the aspirational cars from my younger days are so far out of reach now, and I am not talking about exotic stuff but cars like Golf GTI MK2 16 valve, Corrado VR6, hot Peugeots....
I look for value now and cars that are cheap to buy and enjoy....top of my list would be stuff like Ford Pumas and even Mazda RX8s, if I was looking for a toy.....cheap as chips and great fun to drive.
Market looks like is slowing in the US too, I was watching YouTube earlier and Rob Ferretti was saying GT3 prices were back down to list with no miles on them and they weren't shifting. He saw it as a buying opportunity, I would see it as a wait and see. But he owns quite a few supercars so perhaps has one eye on his asset value.
Hi end (Daytona etc) dealer I know says prices are going to have to get lower for sales to pick up.
Been wrong too many times to predict anything myself.
Hope there is a correction though as see my favourite ex car being a Clio V6 Phase 1 at 16k max for a good one and not current prices.
But what do I know? Always call it wrong.
Been wrong too many times to predict anything myself.
Hope there is a correction though as see my favourite ex car being a Clio V6 Phase 1 at 16k max for a good one and not current prices.
But what do I know? Always call it wrong.
It seems clear that we're reaching or have reached the top of the market.
People watch auctions with interest and all of a sudden, everybody says "I'd sell mine for that".
In the PH classifieds there are:
13 Ferrari F40s
26 Honda NSXs
12 E30 M3s
If you have followed the PH classifieds like I have, you'll know that these are big numbers.
In any case, I'd expect the rare stuff to weather the storm (but sales will stagnate a bit) and the price of more ordinary stuff will fall. If you're willing to hold on, there will be another bubble along soon enough.
Thomas
People watch auctions with interest and all of a sudden, everybody says "I'd sell mine for that".
In the PH classifieds there are:
13 Ferrari F40s
26 Honda NSXs
12 E30 M3s
If you have followed the PH classifieds like I have, you'll know that these are big numbers.
In any case, I'd expect the rare stuff to weather the storm (but sales will stagnate a bit) and the price of more ordinary stuff will fall. If you're willing to hold on, there will be another bubble along soon enough.
Thomas
greenarrow said:
And I agree too!!
I'm fed up that all the aspirational cars from my younger days are so far out of reach now, and I am not talking about exotic stuff but cars like Golf GTI MK2 16 valve, Corrado VR6, hot Peugeots....
I look for value now and cars that are cheap to buy and enjoy....top of my list would be stuff like Ford Pumas and even Mazda RX8s, if I was looking for a toy.....cheap as chips and great fun to drive.
Surely all of those things are still within reach for a driveable example that can be brought up to scratch over a year - 3k for a Golf or 205/309/306 and 5k for a Corrado.......unless you want an excellent garage queen?I'm fed up that all the aspirational cars from my younger days are so far out of reach now, and I am not talking about exotic stuff but cars like Golf GTI MK2 16 valve, Corrado VR6, hot Peugeots....
I look for value now and cars that are cheap to buy and enjoy....top of my list would be stuff like Ford Pumas and even Mazda RX8s, if I was looking for a toy.....cheap as chips and great fun to drive.
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