No ICE from 2040?!?

Author
Discussion

67Dino

3,583 posts

105 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
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skinnyman said:
I currently drive a V8, as I like my noise, but when I decide to be a bit more sensible in 5-10yrs I'd more than happily have an EV. The range wouldn't be an issue for 99% of my journies, and hopefully pricing will become more sensible once more manufacturers get involved. At the minute the base spec Tesla 3 is rumoured to be around £30k, whereas look at something like the new Insignia, the top of the range model is mid 20's. If pricing gets sensible, I'd happily have one.
I'm with Skinnyman. It's cars I like, not necessary ICE ones: have a Tesla electric motor over a weedy ICE any day. Am sure in 50 years we'll have some great supercars, even if we still hanker after the noise of an old petrol engine, like we hanker after the delightful quirks of old cars now. Bring it on, I say.

MrOrange

2,035 posts

253 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
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As has been said before, the arrival of the car did not wipe out the horse, merely elevated to a hobby.

Most of the major manufacturers, including the premium ones listed here have been developing PHEV and/or BEV technology for years and have products to market, or soon will.

AM: Leccy Rapide
BMW: i3, i8, 330e, 530e, 740e
Porsche Panamera

Etc

Self-driving, on-demand, electric boxes to do the boring local transportation loop is a perfect solution, leaving long distance via specialist or mass transit. Sunday blatts away from towns and people can be where we’ll still see V8s, Caterhams, litre bikes and other such hobbies cars. They will be expensive, and be tightly restricted.

For second generation of this millennium, it will seem weird to go to a “petrol station” and fill up with a foul liquid that killed people and damaged the planet. I have been a petrolhead since the early 1970s, I am now a convert.

Of course, it does mean the death of the petrol-powered Golf R.

Ares

11,000 posts

120 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
quotequote all
MrOrange said:
As has been said before, the arrival of the car did not wipe out the horse, merely elevated to a hobby.

Most of the major manufacturers, including the premium ones listed here have been developing PHEV and/or BEV technology for years and have products to market, or soon will.

AM: Leccy Rapide
BMW: i3, i8, 330e, 530e, 740e
Porsche Panamera

Etc

Self-driving, on-demand, electric boxes to do the boring local transportation loop is a perfect solution, leaving long distance via specialist or mass transit. Sunday blatts away from towns and people can be where we’ll still see V8s, Caterhams, litre bikes and other such hobbies cars. They will be expensive, and be tightly restricted.

For second generation of this millennium, it will seem weird to go to a “petrol station” and fill up with a foul liquid that killed people and damaged the planet. I have been a petrolhead since the early 1970s, I am now a convert.

Of course, it does mean the death of the petrol-powered Golf R.
One of the hindrances to most of the cars you mention above is that they are hybrid, which means the weight of two power units.

We looked at a Panamera or Cayenne Hybrid very fleetingly, immediately put off by a huge weight penalty. Ditto with most hybrids.

suffolk009

5,401 posts

165 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
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I personally believe that electricity will be heavily pushed for cars/all transport and heating and cooking. In fact just about anything that you can currently use fossil fuels for.

And as everybody points out there's a tipping point of convenience when people will take it up on mass. I dont think it's so much about cost, because the cost of driving an EV will have to be at least as high in the long term as driving a regular car is at the moment.

What I think will change is the need for micro generation. It's plain crazy that having solar panels on your roof is still unusual. There's a company that is starting to make solar panels that look like slate roof tiles. That's not the way to go, but we do need something that looks a lot better than those hideously shiny panels that people bolt on. Once they're okay to look at and can be built in as the structure of the building, then all new builds will have them. If the cost/benefit reaches about 10 yr payoff, I'd even retrofit them. Then it's just a matter of more battery storage and low voltage circuits wired into the house. I mean like 12V wall plugs.

All this will hapen just as quickly as people removed gaslights from their houses and called in an electrician.

II expect it will mostly be in place long before 2040.

anonymous-user

54 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
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67Dino said:
A friend of mine is involved in RiverSimple, the first viable commercial hydrogen powered vehicle
The one thing the RiverSimple isn't is "commercially viable"!


It's a ridiculously impractical, short range, expensive toy, that uses a energy source that doesn't exist, and yet still needs batteries too work (because the fuel cell isn't dynamic).

Compare it to say my i3, a 5 seat, family car i drive TODAY (and has been out for 3 years).

Like a lot of projects, the Simple is a solution looking for a problem.

In about 3 to 5 years, you'll be able to walk into pretty much any show room of any major brand and drive out with a mid sized car, that does 300miles range, costs less than it does today. At that point, all those pipe dream projects claiming to the "the future" will evaporate........

MrOrange

2,035 posts

253 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
quotequote all
Agreed, batteries are heavy, so what.

PHEV is usually heavier than ICE alone, but all cars have got heavier over the years and with the extra electric power many PHEVs have more go than their conventional counterparts.

And, with the additional weight low down (lowering the overall CoG), it often improves the handling dynamics.

Of course, the benefits of most PHEV are that if driven on the average daily cycle with destination charging, they will use no petrol whatsoever.

Pure electric still has, IMHO, a range anxiety issue for a small percentage of journeys and mega-country crossing - the solution currently is PHEV or high-capacity/rapid-charge (ala Tesla).

Ares

11,000 posts

120 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
quotequote all
MrOrange said:
Agreed, batteries are heavy, so what.

PHEV is usually heavier than ICE alone, but all cars have got heavier over the years and with the extra electric power many PHEVs have more go than their conventional counterparts.

And, with the additional weight low down (lowering the overall CoG), it often improves the handling dynamics.

Of course, the benefits of most PHEV are that if driven on the average daily cycle with destination charging, they will use no petrol whatsoever.

Pure electric still has, IMHO, a range anxiety issue for a small percentage of journeys and mega-country crossing - the solution currently is PHEV or high-capacity/rapid-charge (ala Tesla).
For many people, weight is a non-issue, but for many, adding 15-20% to the kerb weight blunts every kind of performance, and most are a lot heavier than their similar powered siblings (certainly the case with the Porsches, and I think the BMW Hybrids)

That significant weight penalty isn't made up for with a marginal reduction in CoG either.

The one person that has got a Porsche Hybrid that I know is now bemoaning the fact, although he enjoys the £300/mth he saves in tax. His issue is that despite the fact that the electric range is just enough to get him to work and back, he never remembers to charge it, and to have it charging from the motor whilst running hits fuel economy so much it isn't worth it.

Teething problems for early generation cars, but it is an area that will hinder hybrid growth - full EV is more likely to be the bugger winner IMO, with Hybrid's left for the enthusiasts.

anonymous-user

54 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
quotequote all
I've got a funny feeling the hype around EV is going to fizzle out in the next 5 years. Hybrids will be the more obvious and logical choice.

These type of headlines that spark this type of knee jerk reaction responses of THIS IS HOW IT WILL PLAY OUT BECAUSE THIS IS HOW IT'S PLAYED OUT IN THE PAST are so fundamentally flawed it's beyond funny.

20 odd years down the line is nothing but mystic meg bullst.

Doesn't surprise me really. Coming from politicians....

anonymous-user

54 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
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DoubleTime said:
I've got a funny feeling the hype around EV is going to fizzle out in the next 5 years. Hybrids will be the more obvious and logical choice.
I've got more than a funny feeling, in fact i'm both quite sure of it and i'd stake my reputation on it, that the precise opposite is going to happen!

Hybrids are a stop gap. they are expensive to develop, are insanely complex (having all the bits of an ICE and an EV) and in the real world, only offer minor improvements in energy consumption (compared to a pure EV).

As soon as the cost of pure EVs falls (next generation will be the cross over point) people will be test driving those in the dealers, and so far, ime, no one who's driven the EV version of a car prefers the hybrid version (in mainstream passenger cars, rather than some low volume hyper performance car).

People will learn to put aside their range anxiety, will become used to perhaps hiring a longer range car the few times a year they need to do long journeys. IME, it takes less than a month of driving an EV to make just about any ICE car feel like yesterdays technology. (In the same way that in less than 5 years, it went from no one to having a smart phone to EVERYONE having one........)



anonymous-user

54 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
quotequote all
Max_Torque said:
I've got more than a funny feeling, in fact i'm both quite sure of it and i'd stake my reputation on it, that the precise opposite is going to happen!

Hybrids are a stop gap. they are expensive to develop, are insanely complex (having all the bits of an ICE and an EV) and in the real world, only offer minor improvements in energy consumption (compared to a pure EV).

As soon as the cost of pure EVs falls (next generation will be the cross over point) people will be test driving those in the dealers, and so far, ime, no one who's driven the EV version of a car prefers the hybrid version (in mainstream passenger cars, rather than some low volume hyper performance car).

People will learn to put aside their range anxiety, will become used to perhaps hiring a longer range car the few times a year they need to do long journeys. IME, it takes less than a month of driving an EV to make just about any ICE car feel like yesterdays technology. (In the same way that in less than 5 years, it went from no one to having a smart phone to EVERYONE having one........)
Let's meet back in 5 years and compare notes?

sorry, I missed the part where you compared smart phones to electric vehicles. Did you really just do that? I mean, seriously? It's as simple as that is it?


Edited by anonymous-user on Thursday 27th July 19:26

98elise

26,601 posts

161 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
quotequote all
Max_Torque said:
DoubleTime said:
I've got a funny feeling the hype around EV is going to fizzle out in the next 5 years. Hybrids will be the more obvious and logical choice.
I've got more than a funny feeling, in fact i'm both quite sure of it and i'd stake my reputation on it, that the precise opposite is going to happen!

Hybrids are a stop gap. they are expensive to develop, are insanely complex (having all the bits of an ICE and an EV) and in the real world, only offer minor improvements in energy consumption (compared to a pure EV).

As soon as the cost of pure EVs falls (next generation will be the cross over point) people will be test driving those in the dealers, and so far, ime, no one who's driven the EV version of a car prefers the hybrid version (in mainstream passenger cars, rather than some low volume hyper performance car).

People will learn to put aside their range anxiety, will become used to perhaps hiring a longer range car the few times a year they need to do long journeys. IME, it takes less than a month of driving an EV to make just about any ICE car feel like yesterdays technology. (In the same way that in less than 5 years, it went from no one to having a smart phone to EVERYONE having one........)
Agreed. I want a BEV on my drive because it's fundamentally a simple and reliable machine. I don't want or need hybrid tech taking up space and complicating the drivetrain. I'm completely happy to live with a reduced range.

Hybrids will be for people that absolutely must be able to drive many hundreds without stopping for a comfort break.

braddo

10,481 posts

188 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
quotequote all
DoubleTime said:
Max_Torque said:
I've got more than a funny feeling, in fact i'm both quite sure of it and i'd stake my reputation on it, that the precise opposite is going to happen!

Hybrids are a stop gap. they are expensive to develop, are insanely complex (having all the bits of an ICE and an EV) and in the real world, only offer minor improvements in energy consumption (compared to a pure EV).

As soon as the cost of pure EVs falls (next generation will be the cross over point) people will be test driving those in the dealers, and so far, ime, no one who's driven the EV version of a car prefers the hybrid version (in mainstream passenger cars, rather than some low volume hyper performance car).

People will learn to put aside their range anxiety, will become used to perhaps hiring a longer range car the few times a year they need to do long journeys. IME, it takes less than a month of driving an EV to make just about any ICE car feel like yesterdays technology. (In the same way that in less than 5 years, it went from no one to having a smart phone to EVERYONE having one........)
Let's meet back in 5 years and compare notes?

sorry, I missed the part where you compared smart phones to electric vehicles. Did you really just do that? I mean, seriously? It's as simple as that is it?
Why is it incomparable?
Even in pure automotive terms, think how fast the move to diesels was when they offered decent performance and lower running costs? The Mk4 Golf tdi and the BMW E46 320d led a very fast charge to diesel ubiquity.

Look at minicabs and Uber cars today - it feels like the VAST majority are a Prius because of their low running costs and reliability, something which probably took about 5 years to gather pace and happen.

Look at how rare manual gearboxes are becoming rare today since dual clutch gearboxes (and now really good torque converter autos) took hold in the last few years.

I can see the tipping point to electric cars happening very quickly. It's just a question of when that tipping point starts.

I'll still love ICE cars and electric vehicles won't be able to replace the tactility/noise/character/interaction that (good) old cars have. Who knows how it will work out in terms of being able to actually use ICE cars in 20 years....

Evanivitch

20,078 posts

122 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
quotequote all
Ali_T said:
Why are they so determined to focus on electric cars? We don't have enough lithium, we don't have the electricity infrastructure and we don't have any plans in place to improve either. Why isn't the focus on biofuel and hydrogen? Both can easily be introduced to the current infrastructure, remove the NOx problem and reduce or negate CO2?
Known lithium reserves were considered low because there wasn't the demand to drive exploration. In reality it's the 25th most abundant element in the earth's crust and economic reserves are growing constantly.

Biofuel takes away from food crops production. We don't have the capacity.

Hydrogen requires huge investment in energy, transportation and storage infrastructure. But it probably has a place in HGV futures.

An EV can be charged at any house, office or public building with very simple electrical installation. It doesn't have to be high voltage or current, a simple trickle charge will suffice for most people.

I charge at 10A for about 2-3 of my work day, and it gets me 35 miles in an Ampera. I charge in the depths of night at 16A and that also gets me to work on Electricity. That's not a major strain on any network.

Yes, faster charge tech is available, but people rarely need to charge at 32A at home or work, and if they do it's not for long. You could easily manage it to minimise peaks.

anonymous-user

54 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
quotequote all
braddo said:
DoubleTime said:
Max_Torque said:
I've got more than a funny feeling, in fact i'm both quite sure of it and i'd stake my reputation on it, that the precise opposite is going to happen!

Hybrids are a stop gap. they are expensive to develop, are insanely complex (having all the bits of an ICE and an EV) and in the real world, only offer minor improvements in energy consumption (compared to a pure EV).

As soon as the cost of pure EVs falls (next generation will be the cross over point) people will be test driving those in the dealers, and so far, ime, no one who's driven the EV version of a car prefers the hybrid version (in mainstream passenger cars, rather than some low volume hyper performance car).

People will learn to put aside their range anxiety, will become used to perhaps hiring a longer range car the few times a year they need to do long journeys. IME, it takes less than a month of driving an EV to make just about any ICE car feel like yesterdays technology. (In the same way that in less than 5 years, it went from no one to having a smart phone to EVERYONE having one........)
Let's meet back in 5 years and compare notes?

sorry, I missed the part where you compared smart phones to electric vehicles. Did you really just do that? I mean, seriously? It's as simple as that is it?
Why is it incomparable?
Even in pure automotive terms, think how fast the move to diesels was when they offered decent performance and lower running costs? The Mk4 Golf tdi and the BMW E46 320d led a very fast charge to diesel ubiquity.

Look at minicabs and Uber cars today - it feels like the VAST majority are a Prius because of their low running costs and reliability, something which probably took about 5 years to gather pace and happen.

Look at how rare manual gearboxes are becoming rare today since dual clutch gearboxes (and now really good torque converter autos) took hold in the last few years.

I can see the tipping point to electric cars happening very quickly. It's just a question of when that tipping point starts.

I'll still love ICE cars and electric vehicles won't be able to replace the tactility/noise/character/interaction that (good) old cars have. Who knows how it will work out in terms of being able to actually use ICE cars in 20 years....
Most cabs are desiels and have been for the past 15 years. There are about 3 prius in the cab line up at three brides last time I was there. Same with Brighton Central.

Comparing a gearbox with a disruptive technology on such a global scale as EV vs oil is, frankly, proving my point.

The main problem with the people in the UK is that they are so focused on what happens within the UK that they think it's worldwide.

Yes, China and India did recently "announce" that they intend to have EV by XXXX years. Utter st. I've been to and traveled India. There is zero chance they can implement such a optimistic plan in that time frame. Even without their dependency on oil, it would be futile.

And that's the mute point that most of the pro EV people are missing from their point of view.

Ready? The world relies on oil. It is heavily dependent on oil. The governments are DEEPLY ingrained with big oil, who are in turn deeply ingrained with those countries in the middle east and Africa.

40 years without a heavy dependency on oil? Not a chance. 100 years at the very least.

Peak oil hasn't been seen yet. The middle east can produce for 50 > 75 years at the very least and who knows what tech will uncover after that.

You underestimate the massive amount of backroom deals that are done regarding oil to keep the whole thing turning.

Evanivitch

20,078 posts

122 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
quotequote all
DoubleTime said:
You underestimate the massive amount of backroom deals that are done regarding oil to keep the whole thing turning.
Why would we willingly want to remain at the mercy of foreign exchange rates, protectionism and cartels to provide us with oil when we can decrease our reliance for little impact on day-to-day?

skylarking808

799 posts

86 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
quotequote all
My thoughts on the topic:

We have to import most of our electric as it is, or do we pay for Chinese nuclear power stations in the twenty year timescale?

We are heading towards batteries for everything - we then have to dispose of these things in landfill and further pollution.

Why c'ant the government look at lorry/train/airplane pollution at the same time?

I agree about the LPG being developed with the infrastructure we already have though, but it does not seem to be on many peoples radar.

mfmman

2,390 posts

183 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
quotequote all
skylarking808 said:
My thoughts on the topic:

We have to import most of our electric as it is, or do we pay for Chinese nuclear power stations in the twenty year timescale?

We are heading towards batteries for everything - we then have to dispose of these things in landfill and further pollution.

Why c'ant the government look at lorry/train/airplane pollution at the same time?

I agree about the LPG being developed with the infrastructure we already have though, but it does not seem to be on many peoples radar.
Could you clarify a few bits please

We have to import most of our electric as it is, or do we pay for Chinese nuclear power stations in the twenty year timescale? Do we? I think we import around 10% at the most? Or do you mean the raw material that 'powers' the power station?

We are heading towards batteries for everything - we then have to dispose of these things in landfill and further pollution. -- Not recyclable or suitable for alternate uses then?

Why can't the government look at lorry/train/airplane pollution at the same time? Aren't they?


Evanivitch

20,078 posts

122 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
quotequote all
skylarking808 said:
My thoughts on the topic:

We have to import most of our electric as it is, or do we pay for Chinese nuclear power stations in the twenty year timescale?

We are heading towards batteries for everything - we then have to dispose of these things in landfill and further pollution.

Why c'ant the government look at lorry/train/airplane pollution at the same time?

I agree about the LPG being developed with the infrastructure we already have though, but it does not seem to be on many peoples radar.
We don't import most our Electricity. We import most our energy, that includes oil and gas and coal. But Electricity we import and export.

Batteries can be recycled.

Cars are a huge part of the pollution in urban areas, vans also, HGVs less and planes and ships significantly less. This policy addresses localised pollution issues on a street level.

LPG still makes us dependant on imports from the middle East. Unless we push hard on fracking.

kambites

67,574 posts

221 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
quotequote all
Evanivitch said:
Cars are a huge part of the pollution in urban areas, vans also, HGVs less and planes and ships significantly less.
That does depend on the city. Southampton has shocking air quality and that's largely not because of the cars.

skylarking808

799 posts

86 months

Thursday 27th July 2017
quotequote all
I was of the understanding that peak use we had to get electric from abroad, although maybe wrong. Do we still have to import raw materials for power stations to use?

I suppose I am trying to highlight whether the UK owns the electric companies who seem to charge us customers an increasing amount for this..

Yep the pollution is focused on the inner cities, but the main routes seem to have lorries day and night using ICE tech. Seems daft not to have a fully thought out transport plan rather than just focus on cars/vans.