No ICE from 2040?!?

[anonymous-user]

Even as a petrolhead can't say I have an issue with this. Technology moves on and we need to all move with it. Fossil fuels are running out and there is no question that ICEs do pollute. I am sure had the Internet existed 100 years ago people would have been bemoaning the demise of the horse, but such is life!

[plenty]

Salamura said:

What utter bks. It is ridiculous that politics is trying to drive technology, when it should be the other way around.

In some sectors, such as information technology, I'd agree whole-heartedly. Mobility, however, is a different matter. We can thank legislation for many of the safety features we now take for granted in cars. When lowering carbon emissions became a major pillar of public policy in the '90s, car manufacturers resisted heavily and continued to resist when aggressive emissions targets were set in the 00s - yet these targets have been met, catalytic converters have become ubiquituous, as has diesel. The reality is that if it were left to manufacturers progress would be much slower than is desirable, hence legislators do have a role to play.

[J4CKO]

cb1965 said:

Even as a petrolhead can't say I have an issue with this. Technology moves on and we need to all move with it. Fossil fuels are running out and there is no question that ICEs do pollute. I am sure had the Internet existed 100 years ago people would have been bemoaning the demise of the horse, but such is life!

That's the thing, they wont run out, peak oil has been and gone, supply is currently greater than the demand, they keep finding more and if by some miracle demand soars there are deposits in Oil Sands and various hard to get to get places, but its there, more would be found it is just not really needed now in the same amounts.

We had the Ice age, Iron age, Bronze age etc, maybe this was the Oil age, and we are passing into the Electric age ? or something similar ?

Just need to get to electric planes, but it either means batteries so heavy they cant take off or a 3000 mile plus long extension cable

[Salamura]

plenty said:

In some sectors, such as information technology, I'd agree whole-heartedly. Mobility, however, is a different matter. We can thank legislation for many of the safety features we now take for granted in cars. When lowering carbon emissions became a major pillar of public policy in the '90s, car manufacturers resisted heavily and continued to resist when aggressive emissions targets were set in the 00s - yet these targets have been met, catalytic converters have become ubiquituous, as has diesel. The reality is that if it were left to manufacturers progress would be much slower than is desirable, hence legislators do have a role to play.

And this is all good. But it's one thing to legislate an existing technology, and completely another to make rules and deadlines for technologies which might / might not exist by the time they want to implement them. And, like I said, this law is missing the fact that:

a) there is currently no viable alternative for clean energy production on a large scale, apart from nuclear
b) passenger cars are a drop in the ocean when it comes to air pollution

This law will solve nothing.

[covmutley]

There wont be a need to ban it. 90% of the market will be EV by 2040 I suspect. For everyday cars for mobility, EV is just better. Please note, im talking white goods cars here!

Petrol cars will become recreational, in the same way horses have.

EV Infrastructure will improve, range will improve.

My diesel octavia is being replaced by an i3 rex in September. I am expecting that the i3 will deal with 80-90% of my journeys on pure ev. Petrol REX will pick up 5% (longer journeys) and my wife xc60 will deal with the very infrequent very long trip.

I will no longer have to wait for my engine to warm up, I will no longer have to wait 10 minutes for the cabin to warm up. i3 is smoother, quieter, easier to drive (one foot driving), greener (low priority for me), much cheaper 'fuel' cost, quicker, less rattly.

[Uncle John]

covmutley said:

There wont be a need to ban it. 90% of the market will be EV by 2040 I suspect. For everyday cars for mobility, EV is just better. Please note, im talking white goods cars here!

Petrol cars will become recreational, in the same way horses have.

EV Infrastructure will improve, range will improve.

My diesel octavia is being replaced by an i3 rex in September. I am expecting that the i3 will deal with 80-90% of my journeys on pure ev. Petrol REX will pick up 5% (longer journeys) and my wife xc60 will deal with the very infrequent very long trip.

I will no longer have to wait for my engine to warm up, I will no longer have to wait 10 minutes for the cabin to warm up. i3 is smoother, quieter, easier to drive (one foot driving), greener (low priority for me), much cheaper 'fuel' cost, quicker, less rattly.

Yeah but your i3 REX looks like something from the Early Learning Centre.

[plenty]

Salamura said:

And this is all good. But it's one thing to legislate an existing technology, and completely another to make rules and deadlines for technologies which might / might not exist by the time they want to implement them. And, like I said, this law is missing the fact that:

a) there is currently no viable alternative for clean energy production on a large scale, apart from nuclear
b) passenger cars are a drop in the ocean when it comes to air pollution

Agreed on points (a) and (b). However today's announcement is not supposed to be about the "how". It's an aspiration, a statement of intent to grab headlines and provoke debate. If the reality truly proves to be impossible then actual policy nearer the date will adjust accordingly.

[covmutley]

Uncle John said:

Yeah but your i3 REX looks like something from the Early Learning Centre.

Your Mum

[PhantomPH]

covmutley said:

Uncle John said:

Yeah but your i3 REX looks like something from the Early Learning Centre.

Your Mum

The diff between REX and non is only 30km (I hate using km, but I am quoting from the site here!). 300km vs 330km. I might have been tempted to save myself £3k and ditch the REX...perhaps check a couple of extra options?

[Flibble]

Salamura said:

And this is all good. But it's one thing to legislate an existing technology, and completely another to make rules and deadlines for technologies which might / might not exist by the time they want to implement them. And, like I said, this law is missing the fact that:

a) there is currently no viable alternative for clean energy production on a large scale, apart from nuclear
b) passenger cars are a drop in the ocean when it comes to air pollution

This law will solve nothing.

It's not trying to solve all air pollution issues, it's trying to solve urban air quality, which is mostly caused by traffic (as power stations and factories have tended to move out of urban areas). The fact that there's no large scale clean generation isn't a factor since moving the emissions from city streets to out of town power plants is actually the goal here.

Passenger cars (and vans, and taxis) are a decent proportion of city emissions:

[Resolutionary]

Maybe I'm being naive, but won't there be an incredibly large tax deficit as a result of forced EV implementation?

Currently I believe hybrids, certain diesels and all EVs enjoy either very low or zero road tax, while I'd wager the majority of motorists (leisure / business / freight) are paying tax in vast quantities overall.

Furthermore, I wonder what will happen to all those hidden collections of cars which rarely see daylight anyway - the market for used petrol vehicles, especially ones with prestige or performance, has been slightly ridiculous of late. Will this change instigate the downward spiral of investment and speculation?

[austinsmirk]

I'm like a stuck record on this, but we bought a Nissan Leaf this year. For financial reasons really. rather than saving the planet

in a nutshell, as a second car for the wife and children running around duties, its genius. I'd always have one now.

Our diesel bill was £200 a mth, its now £65 diesel and about £15/£20 electric. The car is virtually paying for itself.

Plus if you follow the forums on them, they appear to be faultless. Now no ICE is achieving that.

[KobayashiMaru86]

covmutley said:

There wont be a need to ban it. 90% of the market will be EV by 2040 I suspect. For everyday cars for mobility, EV is just better. Please note, im talking white goods cars here!

Petrol cars will become recreational, in the same way horses have.

EV Infrastructure will improve, range will improve.

My diesel octavia is being replaced by an i3 rex in September. I am expecting that the i3 will deal with 80-90% of my journeys on pure ev. Petrol REX will pick up 5% (longer journeys) and my wife xc60 will deal with the very infrequent very long trip.

I will no longer have to wait for my engine to warm up, I will no longer have to wait 10 minutes for the cabin to warm up. i3 is smoother, quieter, easier to drive (one foot driving), greener (low priority for me), much cheaper 'fuel' cost, quicker, less rattly.

That's what I'm thinking. Cars and bikes will be for fun, much like horses are now. The car saved the horse and the eCar will save the petrol. Diesel cars can go and die though.

[J4CKO]

austinsmirk said:

I'm like a stuck record on this, but we bought a Nissan Leaf this year. For financial reasons really. rather than saving the planet

in a nutshell, as a second car for the wife and children running around duties, its genius. I'd always have one now.

Our diesel bill was £200 a mth, its now £65 diesel and about £15/£20 electric. The car is virtually paying for itself.

Plus if you follow the forums on them, they appear to be faultless. Now no ICE is achieving that.

Yes, this is where it becomes compelling and your friends, neighbours and us on here will realise the world wont end because we cant do 400 miles in a stretch in it, think I have done one journey this year where I couldn't use an EV easily.

As more get them and get a feel for them it will snowball, it will go from ignorance and ambivalence to shut up and take my money.

[AH33]

Uncle John said:

Yeah but your i3 REX looks like something from the Early Learning Centre.

[Ultrafunkula]

As EVs develope, manufacturers will realise that car design can change as well to suit smaller battery packs and wheel hub motors. vehicles can have a smaller footprint which means more space around them. Performance models may benefit from improved aerodynamics and more interesting design language.

There is no logical reason why EVs won't replace ICE powered vehicles in the future, it's all down to infrastructure costs and politics. There's also no reason why EVs shouldn't be every bit as exciting to drive as any other vehicle. I can't wait, personally, it's another step toward the technological singularity...

[warcalf]

I personally believe the government won't be able to completely ban petrol/diesel powered cars.

Too many people will revolt.

[austinsmirk]

J4CKO said:

austinsmirk said:

I'm like a stuck record on this, but we bought a Nissan Leaf this year. For financial reasons really. rather than saving the planet

in a nutshell, as a second car for the wife and children running around duties, its genius. I'd always have one now.

Our diesel bill was £200 a mth, its now £65 diesel and about £15/£20 electric. The car is virtually paying for itself.

Plus if you follow the forums on them, they appear to be faultless. Now no ICE is achieving that.

Yes, this is where it becomes compelling and your friends, neighbours and us on here will realise the world wont end because we cant do 400 miles in a stretch in it, think I have done one journey this year where I couldn't use an EV easily.

As more get them and get a feel for them it will snowball, it will go from ignorance and ambivalence to shut up and take my money.

sorry, to continue: the 30kwh we have doesn't do the acclaimed 155 miles on a charge. its 124 with everything running (my wife likes it toasty, so heated seats, heater, heated steering wheel)

some people are nudging over 130 miles. today I saw someone who'd got 150 out of one. but the new model is out soon, range will be over 200 miles on a charge.

lets be honest the vast majority of people will be fine on a 200 mile daily range. That's the crux of it.

however street charging/public/work charging is something else, but it'll come. Goodness knows I wouldn't fancy the hassle of living in a flat/terrace and finding a plug somewhere.

I do love not going to a petrol station though. Just plug in 2-3 times a week on a night. happy days. For us, it means no mental rushing to a petrol station for my wife in amongst the school/work/home runs.

End of the day, its a disposable white good. I don't care about driving dynamics and a 50/50 weight distribution and all that other fluff people talk about. Its an appliance for sitting in traffic in. And its extremely good at that. And that my friends is the reality of driving. Even if you are a driving god and powerfully built and can dominate the stairs.

[Murphy16]

Serious question for people to try answer, what happens to the petrol stations? And petrol car prices?

So it's 2040, i have my all electric commuter car and my vintage 350Z. For a while I'll still be able to fill up because looaads of people will still have them, however after time i assume they will all shut down? Will there be a point after that, maybe 10/15 years where petrol is scarce in this country?

[covmutley]

PhantomPH said:

The diff between REX and non is only 30km (I hate using km, but I am quoting from the site here!). 300km vs 330km. I might have been tempted to save myself £3k and ditch the REX...perhaps check a couple of extra options?

I think it is more than that. Adds 80 miles at expense of EV. But I can keep re-fuelling, with a short top up stop. So should be no range anxiety at all, whereas i dont trust the EV infrastructure enough currently.