Electric cars, does everyone really think they are amazing.

[RobDickinson]

yep its possible, we'll have to see what they come up with. I think it'll need about 10 tons of battery per truck or so based on the 100d battery weight and epa distance etc

[Welshbeef]

RobDickinson said:

Aha like a 4 week rest stop?

Cars generally need very little energy to cruise at reasonable speeds and in cities can regen a lot of that back. A car probably needs what 40-50bhp to cruise at 70mph?


https://www.nap.edu/read/13288/chapter/7

"The 21st Century Truck Partnership (21CTP) has identified the areas of energy consumption for a typical Class 8 vehicle operating on a level road at a constant speed of 65 mph with a gross vehicle weight (GVW) of 80,000 lb. In this case, the engine losses are about 322 horsepower (hp)"

I remember reading something years ago about what bhp for 70mph and it was 30bhp - on a flat no strong headwind.
So these 600bhp RS6's are wasted...

[e30m3Mark]

Is this going to be like diesels, where the Government keeps pushing and quoting electric vehicles as being the future and a planet saving solution, right up to the point where we discover that actually it isn't as green as we're being led to believe? Maybe even an electric vehicle scrap page scheme?

[kambites]

e30m3Mark said:

Is this going to be like diesels, where the Government keeps pushing and quoting electric vehicles as being the future and a planet saving solution, right up to the point where we discover that actually it isn't as green as we're being led to believe? Maybe even an electric vehicle scrap page scheme?

It is of course possible but there are differences between EVs and diesels.

Actual environmentalists and scientists (as opposed to me-tooish politicians) were pretty much universally warning that diesels were going to produce horrific city-centre air quality if they were allowed to become the normal choice of personal transport in cities as soon as the government jumped on the MMGW bandwagon and started pushing them via favourable taxation. EVs are, amongst those who actually care about the issues in question, far more universally accepted as being better than what we have now.

Of course that's not to say something new wont come along which is better, or that there wont be political reasons to push for something else.

[kambites]

Welshbeef said:

I remember reading something years ago about what bhp for 70mph and it was 30bhp - on a flat no strong headwind.

Our old Punto which had about 50bhp a the wheels would do about 90mph on the flat so 30bhp for 70mph sounds about right.

[DonkeyApple]

DELETED: Comment made by a member who's account has been deleted.

And all despite all the evidence he needs to see that he is wrong is in his workshop, right in front of him. From his accounts that clearly show that almost no one has a need for LPG to the types of customer walking in twice a week.

[otolith]

Welshbeef said:

I remember reading something years ago about what bhp for 70mph and it was 30bhp - on a flat no strong headwind.

Will obviously vary with frontal area and drag coefficient, but that sounds about right.

[DonkeyApple]

otolith said:

DonkeyApple said:

But that level is not a substantial decline. Naphtha use is growing, kerosene is also. Gasoline and diesel will still be produced in excess amounts. Substantially so. It's the inconvenient truth for the eco argument as they don't have an answer and as evangelists they don't want to face this issue.

Are you sure that the demand is specifically for heavier fractions, and not just for cheap hydrocarbon feedstock which is surplus to fuel refining?

I'm merely observing that just because car fuel makes up a significant % of the commercial end product of a barrel of oil it doesn't mean that if we stop using car fuel we will stop refining oil. You might get a modest decline in demand as gasoline and diesel are no longer the key drivers in demand but we remain an oil economy and demand for fractions such as naptha and kerosene aren't falling but quite the opposite.

'According to the IEA, the projected 1.4m bbl/day expansion in crude demand in 2018 will be largely driven by rebounding industrial demand, with liquefied petroleum gases (LPG), including ethane, accounting for approximately 35% of the projected global demand increase, while gasoil and diesel will account for another 30%. Gasoline and jet kerosene will account for 17% and 12%, respectively, of the projected global growth.'

https://www.icis.com/resources/news/2017/06/14/101...

Ie there are two big elephants in the room for the eco lobby.

Firstly their belief that oil consumption will decline if we stop needing gasoline.

And secondly, what do we do with the gasoline fraction as it will still be being produced (it won't be being refined out into specific fuel types but it will obviously still be being distilled out) but we have no commercial use for it?

All I've asked on this thread among my fellow EV fans is why would anyone think oil refining is going to ease just because our cars run in electricity and what is the plan for all the excess gasoline that we will be left with as a waste product?

So far the only two responses have been: 'we will work something out' and 'you are SimonYorkshire!'.

All I can think of is that we'll just burn it in power stations but this obviously means building power stations that can operate on that fuel type and I don't what the efficiency rate would be compared to burning heavy oil?

[DonkeyApple]

e30m3Mark said:

Is this going to be like diesels, where the Government keeps pushing and quoting electric vehicles as being the future and a planet saving solution, right up to the point where we discover that actually it isn't as green as we're being led to believe? Maybe even an electric vehicle scrap page scheme?

Woa. You've jumped a big step there. It's hybrids first. Over the next two decades everyone will be switched to hybrids and then those will be discovered to be evil etc. Then we can move onto EVs. But in all likelihood by then the whole concept of energy consumption in general being evil will be well ensconced and so will the taxes on personal/household electricity and gas usage.

Very few households can self generate in the UK so an enviro tax on domestic gas and electricity is perfect. Not only does it cover the car but it's an easy sell to the electorate as it penalises scum in big houses. And it will deliver absolutely enormous VAT receipts and cash flows as millions of people rush to spend billions of GBP on energy efficient household appliances in order to save tens of GBP on the annual utility bills. Plus, the less society eventually begins consuming power the more you ratchet up the tax.

[pherlopolus]

DonkeyApple said:

I'm merely observing that just because car fuel makes up a significant % of the commercial end product of a barrel of oil it doesn't mean that if we stop using car fuel we will stop refining oil. You might get a modest decline in demand as gasoline and diesel are no longer the key drivers in demand but we remain an oil economy and demand for fractions such as naptha and kerosene aren't falling but quite the opposite.

'According to the IEA, the projected 1.4m bbl/day expansion in crude demand in 2018 will be largely driven by rebounding industrial demand, with liquefied petroleum gases (LPG), including ethane, accounting for approximately 35% of the projected global demand increase, while gasoil and diesel will account for another 30%. Gasoline and jet kerosene will account for 17% and 12%, respectively, of the projected global growth.'

https://www.icis.com/resources/news/2017/06/14/101...

Ie there are two big elephants in the room for the eco lobby.

Firstly their belief that oil consumption will decline if we stop needing gasoline.

And secondly, what do we do with the gasoline fraction as it will still be being produced (it won't be being refined out into specific fuel types but it will obviously still be being distilled out) but we have no commercial use for it?

All I've asked on this thread among my fellow EV fans is why would anyone think oil refining is going to ease just because our cars run in electricity and what is the plan for all the excess gasoline that we will be left with as a waste product?

So far the only two responses have been: 'we will work something out' and 'you are SimonYorkshire!'.

All I can think of is that we'll just burn it in power stations but this obviously means building power stations that can operate on that fuel type and I don't what the efficiency rate would be compared to burning heavy oil?

Probably used in the onsite power stations, or we just refine less, put the price up of the bits that are used (to cover the losses of not selling the petrol) and industry turns to other, now cheaper, renewable alternatives (like plastic bags not being made of plastic)

[RobDickinson]

we crack huge amounts of petrochemicals to make enough gasoline, it wont be an issue in the short or medium term

[DonkeyApple]

pherlopolus said:

Probably used in the onsite power stations, or we just refine less, put the price up of the bits that are used (to cover the losses of not selling the petrol) and industry turns to other, now cheaper, renewable alternatives (like plastic bags not being made of plastic)

It's not just plastic bags though is it? The whole human world is made of plastics. 8bln humans require pharmaceuticals. Air transport is ever growing.

Our foray into producing bio-fuels and bio long chain polymers wasn't exactly a raging success as we quickly realised that just for small amounts we needed to eradicate quite a few people and their livelihoods.

It is certainly insteresting to consider that almost half of a barrel of crude would become a waste product.

[GT119]

DonkeyApple said:

otolith said:

DonkeyApple said:

But that level is not a substantial decline. Naphtha use is growing, kerosene is also. Gasoline and diesel will still be produced in excess amounts. Substantially so. It's the inconvenient truth for the eco argument as they don't have an answer and as evangelists they don't want to face this issue.

Are you sure that the demand is specifically for heavier fractions, and not just for cheap hydrocarbon feedstock which is surplus to fuel refining?

I'm merely observing that just because car fuel makes up a significant % of the commercial end product of a barrel of oil it doesn't mean that if we stop using car fuel we will stop refining oil. You might get a modest decline in demand as gasoline and diesel are no longer the key drivers in demand but we remain an oil economy and demand for fractions such as naptha and kerosene aren't falling but quite the opposite.

'According to the IEA, the projected 1.4m bbl/day expansion in crude demand in 2018 will be largely driven by rebounding industrial demand, with liquefied petroleum gases (LPG), including ethane, accounting for approximately 35% of the projected global demand increase, while gasoil and diesel will account for another 30%. Gasoline and jet kerosene will account for 17% and 12%, respectively, of the projected global growth.'

https://www.icis.com/resources/news/2017/06/14/101...

Ie there are two big elephants in the room for the eco lobby.

Firstly their belief that oil consumption will decline if we stop needing gasoline.

And secondly, what do we do with the gasoline fraction as it will still be being produced (it won't be being refined out into specific fuel types but it will obviously still be being distilled out) but we have no commercial use for it?

All I've asked on this thread among my fellow EV fans is why would anyone think oil refining is going to ease just because our cars run in electricity and what is the plan for all the excess gasoline that we will be left with as a waste product?

So far the only two responses have been: 'we will work something out' and 'you are SimonYorkshire!'.

All I can think of is that we'll just burn it in power stations but this obviously means building power stations that can operate on that fuel type and I don't what the efficiency rate would be compared to burning heavy oil?

The oil and gas companies are confident that consumption will not decline.
They are expecting that any reduction in developed countries will be offset by rising consumption in the developing world.

[pherlopolus]

so the answer to the question about electric cars being amazing is, NO - because we won't know what to do with the spare petrol.

[DonkeyApple]

pherlopolus said:

so the answer to the question about electric cars being amazing is, NO - because we won't know what to do with the spare petrol.

I wasn't answering a question. I was asking one.

[danp]

DonkeyApple said:

Woa. You've jumped a big step there. It's hybrids first. Over the next two decades everyone will be switched to hybrids and then those will be discovered to be evil etc. Then we can move onto EVs. But in all likelihood by then the whole concept of energy consumption in general being evil will be well ensconced and so will the taxes on personal/household electricity and gas usage.

Very few households can self generate in the UK so an enviro tax on domestic gas and electricity is perfect. Not only does it cover the car but it's an easy sell to the electorate as it penalises scum in big houses. And it will deliver absolutely enormous VAT receipts and cash flows as millions of people rush to spend billions of GBP on energy efficient household appliances in order to save tens of GBP on the annual utility bills. Plus, the less society eventually begins consuming power the more you ratchet up the tax.

I don't think a big hike in tax on energy is an easy sell - think of the pensioners in fuel poverty! I can see VAT moving to 20% before too long tho'. But yes, the upsides for the Gov would be great as you say (lots of eco home improvements/ appliances spend)

Not sure if that or PAYG road pricing would be more palatable, OBR predicts a decline of 20% in fuel duty tax take by 2020/21 so perhaps this'll happen sooner than one might think.

[kambites]

Clearly it is a commercial necessity that the uses of different fractions of crude oil remain balanced, at least globally, but that's not quite the same as saying the usage of all fractions have to stay as they are now because most fractions can be used to produce many different things.

[kambites]

danp said:

Not sure if that or PAYG road pricing would be more palatable, OBR predicts a decline of 20% in fuel duty tax take by 2020/21 so perhaps this'll happen sooner than one might think.

I think it would be more palatable for the government simply because it would be far easier to target the costs at a particular demographic via ANPR.

[DonkeyApple]

danp said:

I don't think a big hike in tax on energy is an easy sell - think of the pensioners in fuel poverty! I can see VAT moving to 20% before too long tho'. But yes, the upsides for the Gov would be great as you say (lots of eco home improvements/ appliances spend)

Not sure if that or PAYG road pricing would be more palatable, OBR predicts a decline of 20% in fuel duty tax take by 2020/21 so perhaps this'll happen sooner than one might think.

I look at PAYG and suspect that it would be as efficient as ankle tags. . Plus, it was always reliant on Galileo which seems to be taking forever.

Pensioners in poverty is a political problem of today. By the time a general energy tax came into being the Millenials will be in power and the then pensioners will not only not have the political clout due to numbers that they have now but the ruling classes will not hold them in any respect. They didn't fight in any wars, they've destroyed the planet, they've stolen all the money, they are the ones who have forced Millenials to be homeless and to buy £25 artisan sandwiches and £72 Mohitos while spending what's left on Botox and slave made cheap clothing with expensive labels. . The animosity flowing from the younger generation at present does not suggest that they will not be still blaming the older generations when they come to power.

I think massive hikes on energy taxation are inevitable and will be an easy political sell. First it'll be a tiny fee to save kittens and everyone will just accept it. Then as it grows each Budget various lobby groups will force discounts to specialist groups etc.

But, this is Britain so we'll probably have both.

[Disco Infiltrator]

kambites said:

We'd be dead long before we actually "ran out of oil" as such, due to the rise in CO2 levels. The question is when it becomes non-viable to extract them, which will come down as much to government policy as engineering concerns.

Fear not, dude.

Climate Change is now a proven myth.