Classic Car Prices - Waiting For The Crash
Discussion
V8RX7 said:
The only good news with these booms is that cars that might otherwise have been scrapped or left deteriorating have had thousands spent restoring them.
Thought this to be a bit cynical at first, but realising stuff like e.g. lowly but lovely Porsche 912s being saved... Think you are onto something. Just need to make sure I have a bit of cash and space once the bubble inevitably bursts...I know of someone that said they always wanted a Testarossa in the late 80's but could not justify paying the prices being asked at the time. About 10 years ago he achieved his dream and brought one for less than £30k which he kept until about 18 months ago when he sold it for over £100k with the proceeds going towards a very nice 458.
He says the Testarossa was not great to drive, costly to maintain so what was the point in having it when for not a lot more he could have a modern useable car, a bit like having a Sega Megadrive when you can have a PS4. I guess it's just a matter of time until people buying £40,000 Novas realise this.
He says the Testarossa was not great to drive, costly to maintain so what was the point in having it when for not a lot more he could have a modern useable car, a bit like having a Sega Megadrive when you can have a PS4. I guess it's just a matter of time until people buying £40,000 Novas realise this.
jonah35 said:
The older pre 1970 stuff is slowing down
The 1990s and early 2000s stuff is heating up
Impreza p1s are appreciating by £1k per month at present and so are Evo 6 Makinens
That makes sense to me .. The 1990s and early 2000s stuff is heating up
Impreza p1s are appreciating by £1k per month at present and so are Evo 6 Makinens
I have very little interest in "old " cars
As I grew up in the 70's and started driving in the early 80's those are the cars I grew up with and the 90's and 00's stuff I couldn't afford ...
Now with a little spare cash for a classic I'd have no interest in a bullnose Morris .. but something "modern classic" suits me just fine
flibbage0 said:
I don't think these cars from the late 90's to early to mid 2000's will depreciate, they have something the newer cars apparently don't:
- Timeless looks
- Great Steering feel
- Manual Gearbox
- Many of them are naturally aspirated
Yes, but all cars aren't created equal. Two examples from 1993 - 1 1971 Beetle 1200, excellent condition, £3250, 2 1970 Porsche 911T, 2.2 litre RHD, not immaculate but presentable, £4995. The secret is to find today's Porsche and not today's Beetle - Timeless looks
- Great Steering feel
- Manual Gearbox
- Many of them are naturally aspirated
People buy for lots of reasons...
This year I have:
- sold a classic Landrover 2a - yes they are going up in price, but it was sitting in a barn not being used - far too uncomfortable to drive!
- bought a soft dash class RR - to replace the series 2a - far more comfortable, also gradually going up in value - but will be used properly - rolling restoration
- bought an e39 M5 - going up in value slowly - so will be used, but will hopefully retain much of its value, so even if it doesn't make any money, it will avoid the costs of leasing / depreciation / etc. in a more modern car
so - none of that is speculation, but they are purchases with one eye on values to minimise cost...
if anyone would like to offer me silly money for a classic I would sell it - but while they will be respected and looked after they will also be enjoyed for what they are and what they are designed to do...
This year I have:
- sold a classic Landrover 2a - yes they are going up in price, but it was sitting in a barn not being used - far too uncomfortable to drive!
- bought a soft dash class RR - to replace the series 2a - far more comfortable, also gradually going up in value - but will be used properly - rolling restoration
- bought an e39 M5 - going up in value slowly - so will be used, but will hopefully retain much of its value, so even if it doesn't make any money, it will avoid the costs of leasing / depreciation / etc. in a more modern car
so - none of that is speculation, but they are purchases with one eye on values to minimise cost...
if anyone would like to offer me silly money for a classic I would sell it - but while they will be respected and looked after they will also be enjoyed for what they are and what they are designed to do...
I have similar views to the OP (not similar deep pockets!), it is hard to accept the car you sold that's now older and in some cases no more loved/restored is now far more expensive and for really no good reason, even supply sometimes hasn't dropped.
I've seen it first hand (but in relatively minor % terms) with Mkiv Supra's and it has a knock on effect with used parts prices too. There is in general the very typical depreciation curve of anything with any desirability whatsoever, the pretty steep drop of all new cars the plateau (and this can be a short or long time depending on desirability and economic conditions) and then the inevitable rise (even say a Skoda Rapid will in time climb well above what it once could be had for) so it's nothing new, apart from perhaps the extreme multiples being seen.
The biggest shame is that as others have said they tend to be seen/driven less and less because suddenly even the regular owners who had them through the plateau period start to worry about their value rising.
I sold some Supra's at prices that now make me wince a bit but I still have one and it's gone up in value but in all honesty I preferred the plateau days when I could chop and change for more modest sums, spare parts were cheap and relatively plentiful. With the new prices (even if they hold up long term) it makes a swap more risky and also owners that might have been wavering on selling suddenly just hold, because they obviously like the car to a point and 'might as well' as it's going up in value. This sentiment can then restrict supply and you can get a circular effect where anyone who does decide to sell a nice one demands top (at the time) money and the next might bump it a bit again etc. But then I end up sitting there looking as a die hard Supra fan going 'I wouldn't buy that at that price' but lots of that is down to the many years of plateau prices making me set in my ways.
I've seen it first hand (but in relatively minor % terms) with Mkiv Supra's and it has a knock on effect with used parts prices too. There is in general the very typical depreciation curve of anything with any desirability whatsoever, the pretty steep drop of all new cars the plateau (and this can be a short or long time depending on desirability and economic conditions) and then the inevitable rise (even say a Skoda Rapid will in time climb well above what it once could be had for) so it's nothing new, apart from perhaps the extreme multiples being seen.
The biggest shame is that as others have said they tend to be seen/driven less and less because suddenly even the regular owners who had them through the plateau period start to worry about their value rising.
I sold some Supra's at prices that now make me wince a bit but I still have one and it's gone up in value but in all honesty I preferred the plateau days when I could chop and change for more modest sums, spare parts were cheap and relatively plentiful. With the new prices (even if they hold up long term) it makes a swap more risky and also owners that might have been wavering on selling suddenly just hold, because they obviously like the car to a point and 'might as well' as it's going up in value. This sentiment can then restrict supply and you can get a circular effect where anyone who does decide to sell a nice one demands top (at the time) money and the next might bump it a bit again etc. But then I end up sitting there looking as a die hard Supra fan going 'I wouldn't buy that at that price' but lots of that is down to the many years of plateau prices making me set in my ways.
I'm 29.
There are quite a few lads my age now buying the cars they had on their walls as kids, GLOBALLY.
GTRs, 964s, NSX, Evo 6 TME, Impreza P1...
These are only going up, why? 25 year USA imports AND 30 year olds who can afford to buy them now.
If i wasn't trying to beat the inevitable interest rate rise by overpaying my house, I'd be snapping up Evo 6 Mak's and Pulsar GTI-R, as the USA didn't get them... There are guys in the states who yearned for these cars as kids, they played Gran Turismo, and now they have a chance at owning "Godzilla" or whatever.
Wheras the old money is buying up the classics as a way to bypass inheritance tax etc.
I have more chance now in buying an affordable Dolomite Sprint that I wanted than the R32/33/34 GTRs that were on my wall.
There are quite a few lads my age now buying the cars they had on their walls as kids, GLOBALLY.
GTRs, 964s, NSX, Evo 6 TME, Impreza P1...
These are only going up, why? 25 year USA imports AND 30 year olds who can afford to buy them now.
If i wasn't trying to beat the inevitable interest rate rise by overpaying my house, I'd be snapping up Evo 6 Mak's and Pulsar GTI-R, as the USA didn't get them... There are guys in the states who yearned for these cars as kids, they played Gran Turismo, and now they have a chance at owning "Godzilla" or whatever.
Wheras the old money is buying up the classics as a way to bypass inheritance tax etc.
I have more chance now in buying an affordable Dolomite Sprint that I wanted than the R32/33/34 GTRs that were on my wall.
Can't see a 2005 360 Spider for £115000 as an investment.
People forking out big bucks for one of these like to get a new model... And I don't know what it is but I think Ferarris in the 20 year old region can look a bit taccy, not classic like an aston martin. Those blocky 1980s ferraris are horrendous.
People forking out big bucks for one of these like to get a new model... And I don't know what it is but I think Ferarris in the 20 year old region can look a bit taccy, not classic like an aston martin. Those blocky 1980s ferraris are horrendous.
Justin Case said:
Yes, but all cars aren't created equal. Two examples from 1993 - 1 1971 Beetle 1200, excellent condition, £3250, 2 1970 Porsche 911T, 2.2 litre RHD, not immaculate but presentable, £4995. The secret is to find today's Porsche and not today's Beetle
that Beetle could be 10/15k+ too (you did say excellent condition, and it would be a bubble price for sure)911T could be 30/35k
Porsche will have had greater costs in last 25yrs too.
neither would be good investments with all costs rolled in. Investment wise you need to be over £1m (arbitrary figure). Below that it has to be mostly about the enjoyment supported with man maths.
98JA said:
...............2005 360 Spider. Manual car, red with cream, 12000 miles... as good as it gets but £115000
........................sold my 04 360 Spider F1 @ 22000 miles from memory in 2011 for £50k, and was happy with that as was being offered early £40s in the trade
Prices of Ferrari 360 appear to have dropped a lot in last 9 months. From memory they were around £65K last March minimum. Autotrader have a few cars between £45K to £65K.........................sold my 04 360 Spider F1 @ 22000 miles from memory in 2011 for £50k, and was happy with that as was being offered early £40s in the trade
For your specific example there is a 13K miles car (manual description dubious though) at an official Ferrari dealer for £88K, being 23% cheaper without haggling.
Look up many of the cars that have populated should I but as an investment type threads over the years and most seem to be falling. There has been no recession for almost ten years and interest rates are still low. Therefore, would argue the downside risk is high for prices of this asset class and the price softening could develop into a much greater reduction.
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