RE: Tesla Roadster: 'Quickest car in the world'
Discussion
8V085 said:
WestyCarl said:
fblm said:
Nanook said:
It's not?
f
k, I didn't realise that.
In that case, it's obvious to all that Tesla are fked. I mean, our man here even compared it to a bus crashing, instead of making any attempt to actually back up what he was saying, so it must be true!
Laugh away, Musk isn't. In August they had 5bn in cash. By the end of q3 they had 3bn and change. During q3 they made 220 model 3's. You don't need a maths gcse to figure out that at that burn rate if the model 3 is further delayed and the cash doesn't start pouring in fast that they could easily run out of cash. They also have 1.4bn in debt coming due in 2018. Their last bond, issued in August is already trading under water so the next option is likely another share issue. Of course if they get on top of what Musk himself describes as production hell then they're golden. $40bn if.f
k, I didn't realise that. In that case, it's obvious to all that Tesla are f
ked. I mean, our man here even compared it to a bus crashing, instead of making any attempt to actually back up what he was saying, so it must be true!PS The Auto industry works in such way that companies that run out of cash disappear from the surface of the earth. Or they get purchased for pennies on a dollar by those who have money in the bank or access to financing facilities.
WestyCarl said:
8V085 said:
WestyCarl said:
fblm said:
Nanook said:
It's not?
fk, I didn't realise that.
In that case, it's obvious to all that Tesla are fked. I mean, our man here even compared it to a bus crashing, instead of making any attempt to actually back up what he was saying, so it must be true!
Laugh away, Musk isn't. In August they had 5bn in cash. By the end of q3 they had 3bn and change. During q3 they made 220 model 3's. You don't need a maths gcse to figure out that at that burn rate if the model 3 is further delayed and the cash doesn't start pouring in fast that they could easily run out of cash. They also have 1.4bn in debt coming due in 2018. Their last bond, issued in August is already trading under water so the next option is likely another share issue. Of course if they get on top of what Musk himself describes as production hell then they're golden. $40bn if.f
k, I didn't realise that. In that case, it's obvious to all that Tesla are f
ked. I mean, our man here even compared it to a bus crashing, instead of making any attempt to actually back up what he was saying, so it must be true!PS The Auto industry works in such way that companies that run out of cash disappear from the surface of the earth. Or they get purchased for pennies on a dollar by those who have money in the bank or access to financing facilities.
Reuters:Tesla's unfettered ambition will drain finances.
Part of the Reuters article said:
Tesla spent $1.1 billion on its auto business in the third quarter, and expects expenses of $1 billion in the current one. It had about $3.5 billion in cash and cash equivalents as of Sept. 30.
At the current cash-burn rate, it would likely be down to about $1 billion in cash by the end of the first quarter.
“In essence, all last night’s event did was add to Elon Musk’s shopping list of things he needs to spend money on at a time when the company is having difficulty making its base vehicle (Model 3),” said Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne.
At the current cash-burn rate, it would likely be down to about $1 billion in cash by the end of the first quarter.
“In essence, all last night’s event did was add to Elon Musk’s shopping list of things he needs to spend money on at a time when the company is having difficulty making its base vehicle (Model 3),” said Cowen analyst Jeffrey Osborne.
8V085 said:
WestyCarl said:
8V085 said:
WestyCarl said:
fblm said:
Nanook said:
It's not?
fk, I didn't realise that.
In that case, it's obvious to all that Tesla are fked. I mean, our man here even compared it to a bus crashing, instead of making any attempt to actually back up what he was saying, so it must be true!
Laugh away, Musk isn't. In August they had 5bn in cash. By the end of q3 they had 3bn and change. During q3 they made 220 model 3's. You don't need a maths gcse to figure out that at that burn rate if the model 3 is further delayed and the cash doesn't start pouring in fast that they could easily run out of cash. They also have 1.4bn in debt coming due in 2018. Their last bond, issued in August is already trading under water so the next option is likely another share issue. Of course if they get on top of what Musk himself describes as production hell then they're golden. $40bn if.f
k, I didn't realise that. In that case, it's obvious to all that Tesla are f
ked. I mean, our man here even compared it to a bus crashing, instead of making any attempt to actually back up what he was saying, so it must be true!PS The Auto industry works in such way that companies that run out of cash disappear from the surface of the earth. Or they get purchased for pennies on a dollar by those who have money in the bank or access to financing facilities.
Tesla have problems at the moment, some are of their own making and some are due to the model 3 success. However they have a potential order bank of maybe $15bn.
What happened to Saab (and many others) is they make a huge investment, don't get close to sales projections and run out of money. Tesla is in a completely different position.
Making cars is a much easier problem to solve than getting the market to accept the car and orders.
WestyCarl said:
What happened to Saab (and many others) is they make a huge investment, don't get close to sales projections and run out of money.
Saab went under because they lacked funding which stopped them from fully resuming production. They simply run out of money when they were ramping up a reset under new ownership. They were then blocked by GM from obtaining funding from Chinese investors.
WestyCarl said:
Tesla is in a completely different position.
Is it? Tesla will go under if they run out of money - similar to Saab. It's all about cash and cash flow. Orders on book are a future projection of revenue streams, not a revenue stream. Unless all those who placed a deposit were willing to convert into full sales months/years ahead of delivery (you'd be crazy to do it but hype is strong with this one).It makes me laugh how the hype surrounding Tesla turns people into zombies thinking that their master is able to defy the basic laws of cash management.
I have an idea how to help Tesla, Model 3 should come with some sort of extra feature - special doors that roll into the roof and then hide in the front boot. Or maybe wheels that are spherical - i.e. something that has never been tried, is a huge risk and will eat cash but is obviously crucial to make an electric vehicle.
8V085 said:
WestyCarl said:
What happened to Saab (and many others) is they make a huge investment, don't get close to sales projections and run out of money.
Saab went under because they lacked funding which stopped them from fully resuming production. They simply run out of money when they were ramping up a reset under new ownership. They were then blocked by GM from obtaining funding from Chinese investors.
WestyCarl said:
Tesla is in a completely different position.
Is it? Tesla will go under if they run out of money - similar to Saab. It's all about cash and cash flow. Orders on book are a future projection of revenue streams, not a revenue stream. Unless all those who placed a deposit were willing to convert into full sales months/years ahead of delivery (you'd be crazy to do it but hype is strong with this one).It makes me laugh how the hype surrounding Tesla turns people into zombies thinking that their master is able to defy the basic laws of cash management.
I have an idea how to help Tesla, Model 3 should come with some sort of extra feature - special doors that roll into the roof and then hide in the front boot. Or maybe wheels that are spherical - i.e. something that has never been tried, is a huge risk and will eat cash but is obviously crucial to make an electric vehicle.
Compare this to the rumored 500k deposits for the model 3, even if only half materialise it's significant future revenue.
Off course investors and customers are impatient, but having read a rough idea of what the production issues are I'm guessing Tesla production will be significantly ramping up 1st qtr 2018.
I'm no Tesla "zombie" (don't own one or will ever I doubt) it just makes me laugh when people take a snapshot of the current business (at an automakers worst position in the cash flow cycle), and extrapolate it forward with no adjustments and pronounce Tesla likely to die.
Off course if they carry on selling virtually nothing for the next 8/10 months they will die, but that's probably the same for most young companies with new products and highly unlikely to happen.
epom said:
The cars that are on the market (not the ones in the owners head) are they actually any good?
As genuine day to day car, do they do the trick ?
The model s is excellent I was very impressed with it as a car. Not spent time in equivalent competition though. Quiet fast really comfortable. As genuine day to day car, do they do the trick ?
Max_Torque said:
So. Tesla go bust tomorrow.
And on Monday, they will either:
1) be bailed out by the US government (as per GM etc)
or
2) Be snapped up by GM or Ford for cents in the dollar
And on Tuesday, they will be back in business. The only difference might be the sign above the front door......
That will depend on what value is in the business.And on Monday, they will either:
1) be bailed out by the US government (as per GM etc)
or
2) Be snapped up by GM or Ford for cents in the dollar
And on Tuesday, they will be back in business. The only difference might be the sign above the front door......
If they have made a fundamental error in the design of their production line which means even with the debt written off they will still lose money making a car, they may just bin the whole thing and just buy the IP, if that has any value to the big players.
Re: the "Tesla will fail" / "No they won't" discussion: Tesla's recently issued 8 year bond is trading at around 6% yield - very roughly about 4% above US treasuries (typically viewed as having no risk). Assuming a 1/3 recovery value for the bond if Tesla dies - then the market thinks Tesla has, averaged over the next 8 years, about a 6% chance per year of going under. No black and white here, just an estimate of likely outcomes - with millions being bet on it.
epom said:
The cars that are on the market (not the ones in the owners head) are they actually any good?
As genuine day to day car, do they do the trick ?
As transport (note not driving) imo the S is pretty good if you can tolerate the low rent interior given the price of the car. Whether that translates to being able to make a decent and fun sports car however is quite another thing.As genuine day to day car, do they do the trick ?
WestyCarl said:
Saab got no investment because Sales went from roughly 2000: 133k units 2008: 95k units, 2009: 21k units. It's not surprising nobody would prop them up.
You need to stop twisting the truth to fit your agenda. Read until it clicks: Saab had willing Chinese investors who were blocked by GM. Demand had nothing to do with it.WestyCarl said:
Compare this to the rumored 500k deposits for the model 3, even if only half materialise it's significant future revenue.
Same as with Saab, to make cars Tesla need cash, now not in the future. Until they turn these bookings into actual orders which will convert into revenue streams and cash these 500k deposits mean nothing. And to turn them into orders they need cash (now) and the bigger the delays the slimmer are the chances since the burn rate is pretty constant - that's the catch 22.Top gear with some reasoned thoughts on the roadster and truck.
https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/heres-wh...
https://www.topgear.com/car-news/electric/heres-wh...
isaldiri said:
As transport (note not driving) imo the S is pretty good if you can tolerate the low rent interior given the price of the car. Whether that translates to being able to make a decent and fun sports car however is quite another thing.
Relatively low volume expensive sports car is a piece of piss compared to succeeding with the model 3. That’s what will determine their fate, the roadster is largely irrelevant. otolith said:
Relatively low volume expensive sports car is a piece of piss compared to succeeding with the model 3. That’s what will determine their fate, the roadster is largely irrelevant.
I was more talking about what the roaster might be to drive, not it's impact on Tesla's financials.Gassing Station | General Gassing | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff