RE: Porsche acquires stake in Rimac
Discussion
jjwilde said:
redroadster said:
Is there enough electric to go around ? Think not if millions turn to milk floats
Yes. The national grid actually recently released a pamphlet to explain they are more than capable of supplying that much electricity and that it won't require hundreds of new power stations or whatever guff people keep spouting.jjwilde said:
Yes. The national grid actually recently released a pamphlet to explain they are more than capable of supplying that much electricity and that it won't require hundreds of new power stations or whatever guff people keep spouting.
I think also something like the new solar roofs. If they could be integrated at the new build stage at a viable cost then as momentum takes traction it’s not hard to envisage the alleviation this could provide on the grid? I’m not sure of the science and numbers or how effective the latest solar is in the Uk climate. I was quite impressed with the Tesla roof tiles, they look like a normal roof!I read an old interview with Guy Martin and he said EVs we’re still “bulls
t” in that it’s pushing the fossil fuel burning up the stream to the power stations. “Mm” I thought, doesn’t sound a strong argument. To be fair to Guy he’s a big enthusiast of advancement and it was quite an old interview. . I’m a vocal detractor on EVs for various reasons but I try to remain objective rather than partisan. I can imagine individual cars consume relatively more carbon than the generation for electricity. Again, not sure of the realities. There’s a lot of false info. I suppose with solar roofs contributing it’s not hard to envisage a nett reduction in fossil fuel consumption
Like I said I’m a detractor of EVs for isolated reasons but I try to challenge myself and keep my mind open to make sure I’m not falling prey to insular thinking.
7795 said:
Tesla proved the concept and now they will be consigned to history; especially with Musk at the helm.
The big guys will move in, take over and cast Tesla and their products to the bin...
Tesla market cap is what 77bn? The big guys will move in, take over and cast Tesla and their products to the bin...
Porsche et AL al are currently where Tesla was in 2011 at best. Outside of jaguar they are a year or two away from putting cars in customer hands.
Aiming at where Tesla was best part of a decade ago.
Concept cars, no charging network, no battery factory.
I'm sure they will catch up. They are throwing tens of billions at it but it'll take them best part of 10 years to do it.
Even with all the tens of billions vag are spending their 2022 production targets are no better than what Tesla make today.
RobDickinson said:
Tesla market cap is what 77bn?
Porsche et AL al are currently where Tesla was in 2011 at best. Outside of jaguar they are a year or two away from putting cars in customer hands.
Aiming at where Tesla was best part of a decade ago.
Concept cars, no charging network, no battery factory.
I'm sure they will catch up. They are throwing tens of billions at it but it'll take them best part of 10 years to do it.
Even with all the tens of billions vag are spending their 2022 production targets are no better than what Tesla make today.
I disagree with the 10 year time frame (regardless of my own preferences of IC cars!). I appreciate the reality of AI development runs in fits and starts but AI is analgous as a whole with the EV thing. It you consider where we were 10 years before. And the experts say technological development runs exponentially so a rearward view is a shallow path than the future rate of progress.Porsche et AL al are currently where Tesla was in 2011 at best. Outside of jaguar they are a year or two away from putting cars in customer hands.
Aiming at where Tesla was best part of a decade ago.
Concept cars, no charging network, no battery factory.
I'm sure they will catch up. They are throwing tens of billions at it but it'll take them best part of 10 years to do it.
Even with all the tens of billions vag are spending their 2022 production targets are no better than what Tesla make today.
I think the technology will gather extreme momentum and adoption in the early 2020s. Bare in mind at the minute charging systems are largely proprietary with no universal adaptability. This won’t continue. Once the mess market lower consumer group of cars really start to gain traction the supporting unified infrastructure will parry up. Manufactuers like Porsche will throw everything into keeping up and by that point many obstacles will have been overcome for them.
Can’t believe I’m saying this being a staunch ICE fanatic but I can’t shy away from realities and lie about how I see the progress.
The rate of progress of technology is increasing.
Still takes time to build factories. Vag are the most ambitious of the European car makers investing up to 90bn
But their plans for production levels 2020-2022 are still pretty limited. By 2025 they will have scaled up but by then Tesla could likely have gigafactories in China and Europe too.
Regardless the threat to mass produced European ev's is mostly from Asia / China, it's an ideal time for China to muscle into this market and they are ramping very fast.
Doubt it'll worry Porsche too much but vag etc will be looking over their shoulder
Still takes time to build factories. Vag are the most ambitious of the European car makers investing up to 90bn
But their plans for production levels 2020-2022 are still pretty limited. By 2025 they will have scaled up but by then Tesla could likely have gigafactories in China and Europe too.
Regardless the threat to mass produced European ev's is mostly from Asia / China, it's an ideal time for China to muscle into this market and they are ramping very fast.
Doubt it'll worry Porsche too much but vag etc will be looking over their shoulder
RobDickinson said:
The rate of progress of technology is increasing.
Still takes time to build factories. Vag are the most ambitious of the European car makers investing up to 90bn
But their plans for production levels 2020-2022 are still pretty limited. By 2025 they will have scaled up but by then Tesla could likely have gigafactories in China and Europe too.
Regardless the threat to mass produced European ev's is mostly from Asia / China, it's an ideal time for China to muscle into this market and they are ramping very fast.
Doubt it'll worry Porsche too much but vag etc will be looking over their shoulder
I take your point there actually as I must admit I hadn’t read Vag or Porsche projections or desires for EV outputStill takes time to build factories. Vag are the most ambitious of the European car makers investing up to 90bn
But their plans for production levels 2020-2022 are still pretty limited. By 2025 they will have scaled up but by then Tesla could likely have gigafactories in China and Europe too.
Regardless the threat to mass produced European ev's is mostly from Asia / China, it's an ideal time for China to muscle into this market and they are ramping very fast.
Doubt it'll worry Porsche too much but vag etc will be looking over their shoulder
Buggyjam said:
I take your point there actually as I must admit I hadn’t read Vag or Porsche projections or desires for EV output
https://electrek.co/2018/01/31/vw-electric-car-production-zwickau-factory/1500 a day plans eventually ( 2020 or on), this would just about equal teslas current overall production , though we'll likely see 7000 model 3's a week before the end of the year.
Lots of stuff could happen, tesla could still go busy (but thats unlikely now), or struggle along at 5k a week, but given they are introducing the model Y march next year for production end of 2019 I dont see VW being ahead until 2022 at a minimum if everything goes right for them.
The model 3 battery pack/motor/powertrain is far ahead of the competition too, and their projected battery costs of $100 per kwh will let them move further down market etc
Again those numbers are pretty meaningless for Porsche who make relatively smaller number of cars (250k last year) they can splip in the high perf ev models in the top of the range (918, panamera, cayenne etc) as they go
GranCab said:
Egolon Musk has just shat himself ....
Why? Tesla has never set out to build supercars. It's mission wasto popularize the idea of electric cars. Musk started out selling to those
that would pay a premium for driving clean tech and moving the model
to popular market segments. The end goal has always been the Model 3
which isn't quite finished yet. Once production is at the level it should be,
Elon hopes that mass adoption of electrics will happen. Altriuistic to a point,
but also leaving Tesla at the top of the affordable and useful fully electric car
market and with the charging infrastructure to support it.
I think the Porsche/Rimac merger is a good thing but Porsche nor Rimac will sell cars
to the common man. It's simply not their market. Thus Elon wouldn't care but instead would
be glad that yet another manufacturer is chasing EV tech.
GranCab said:
The established European car manufacturers will wipe the floor with Tesla within the next 10 years - that's if Tesla hasn't imploded in the meantime.
Tesla has some serious issues to deal with if it wishes to remain viable.
I would imagine they will get bought, seems a shame to waste all that time and effort they just need someone who knows how to mass produce cars to control them. Tesla has some serious issues to deal with if it wishes to remain viable.
Wills2 said:
GranCab said:
The established European car manufacturers will wipe the floor with Tesla within the next 10 years - that's if Tesla hasn't imploded in the meantime.
Tesla has some serious issues to deal with if it wishes to remain viable.
I would imagine they will get bought, seems a shame to waste all that time and effort they just need someone who knows how to mass produce cars to control them. Tesla has some serious issues to deal with if it wishes to remain viable.
Essentially they have until the end of the year to get production running at sensible levels, should that happen their turnover will rise to meet their valuation.
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