RE: Prior Convictions: Solving Lotus
Discussion
Max_Torque said:
er, nope. The "battery architecture" will be exactly as it is now, with a solid, stiff and sealed casing supporting modules that contain cells. Sure, the cell CHEMISTRY and specific energy density might be different, but the battery won't be.
There are at least three companies I know of working on fluid electrolytic fuel cells that work like batteries but refuel like a petrol tank. Then there are a bunch still working on hydrogen fuel cells and super capacitors. Both offer significant advantages over the current lithium cells, but have completely different packaging requirements. Even if you ignore the novel chemistries being developed, some of the lithium alternatives are offering half the packaging size which would make a huge difference to a sports car layout. Lithium has relatively poor density, high weight and slow recharge times. EVs at present have to be built around the battery. So building a platform around those pretty big limitations is a gamble. Lotus take something like a decade between new models on average. Do you think that's going to make it a good move for them to get in early when at least half their customers want a petrol engine with as many cylinders as possible? There is no early mover advantage to them.
It's different for manufacturers with at least half a dozen established models, but for a marque that pretty much lives and dies by each new model, the equation is not in favour of assuming EVs aren't going to radically change in the next few years.
Edited by Tuna on Wednesday 15th August 21:59
Tuna said:
There are at least three companies I know of working on fluid electrolytic fuel cells that work like batteries but refuel like a petrol tank.
.
OK a few small problems with that one:.
1) having something that works in the lab means nothing. No OE is going anywhere near it till you prove it works in practice
2) Where do you "refuel" these batteries? Unless they use gasoline or diesel, then there is NO infrastructure at all (way worse than for EV's which now have a rapidly growing charge network, and everyone has at least a socket at home that can charge their car
3)A fuel cell car still needs a (electrochemical) battery, otherwise the fuel cell has to be massively powerful, highly responsive, and yet can't provide a bi-directional energy path (so no regen)
All those "issues" means that production EVs are safe for many years to come in their current format, certainly more than the 3 years it'll take to get a new one into production!
I've seen the product plan for a large number of OE's, and those plans stretch to around 2025, and precisely none have any kind of alternate energy storage development built into them.
Don't get me wrong, for mainstream manufactures (who you make clear you deal with) it's a much easier equation to have a 'halo' model to prove to shareholders you're keeping up with Tesla.
I maintain though that a car company with only a couple of models and that relies almost completely on performance metrics to sell those cars, now is not the time to gamble on electric. Lotus has an engineering wing that's more than capable of keeping up with the state of the art, they don't need to put it into a road car until the time is right.
Oh, and for point two, the big deal with fluid electrolytic batteries is the 'charging station' just swaps charged fluid for discharged fluid. The total amount of electrolyte in the car stays the same, as does the total amount in the charging station. The charging station can then recharge the 'old' fluid from the car at leisure and pass it on to the next car.
All that means is a charging station looks a lot like an electric charge point with a couple of tanks on the back. In normal operation it's a closed loop system, so you don't need a new delivery network. There's a cost to installing them, but the benefit is fuelling times that can match or even beat petrol cars.
I maintain though that a car company with only a couple of models and that relies almost completely on performance metrics to sell those cars, now is not the time to gamble on electric. Lotus has an engineering wing that's more than capable of keeping up with the state of the art, they don't need to put it into a road car until the time is right.
Oh, and for point two, the big deal with fluid electrolytic batteries is the 'charging station' just swaps charged fluid for discharged fluid. The total amount of electrolyte in the car stays the same, as does the total amount in the charging station. The charging station can then recharge the 'old' fluid from the car at leisure and pass it on to the next car.
All that means is a charging station looks a lot like an electric charge point with a couple of tanks on the back. In normal operation it's a closed loop system, so you don't need a new delivery network. There's a cost to installing them, but the benefit is fuelling times that can match or even beat petrol cars.
MaxTorque said:
I've seen the product plan for a large number of OE's, and those plans stretch to around 2025, and precisely none have any kind of alternate energy storage development built into them.
And five years ago before Tesla came along, how many mentioned electric in their twenty year plan? The point is this market is being dictated by the disruptors, not the guys who predict business as usual. It's madness to think the disruption is just going to stop any time soon. Edited by Tuna on Wednesday 15th August 22:40
vernz said:
Plenty of mentions of Volvo parts finding their way into future Lotus models.
What about an AMG V8?
Geely now own the biggest single stake in Mercedes as well.
That branch of the business opens up a whole new world of opportunities.
That Geely own 9.7% of Daimler-Benz is a fact that had previously escaped me. And if they'll supply Aston with V8s (and notably V12s to Pagani!) then why shouldn't Lotus get them too?What about an AMG V8?
Geely now own the biggest single stake in Mercedes as well.
That branch of the business opens up a whole new world of opportunities.
suffolk009 said:
That Geely own 9.7% of Daimler-Benz is a fact that had previously escaped me. And if they'll supply Aston with V8s (and notably V12s to Pagani!) then why shouldn't Lotus get them too?
So there it is then......The New Esprit supercar. The Lotus Esprit 550 we'll call it. AMG supplied V8 550bhp. Various other Mercedes and Volvo parts and tech. All for about 125k and nicely under cutting a 540c McLaren.
Simples!!
And this afternoon I'm solving global warming.....
vernz said:
So there it is then......
The New Esprit supercar. The Lotus Esprit 550 we'll call it. AMG supplied V8 550bhp. Various other Mercedes and Volvo parts and tech. All for about 125k and nicely under cutting a 540c McLaren.
Simples!!
And this afternoon I'm solving global warming.....
Just fit it with decent air con and offer a convertible option then take the afternoon off. The New Esprit supercar. The Lotus Esprit 550 we'll call it. AMG supplied V8 550bhp. Various other Mercedes and Volvo parts and tech. All for about 125k and nicely under cutting a 540c McLaren.
Simples!!
And this afternoon I'm solving global warming.....
flowman said:
Improve quality. “Adding lightness” does not have to mean reducing quality. A well made, durable Lotus would be a very desirable car indeed.
That would be logical. However, the one thing the modern consumer society has told us over the last twenty years is that with luxury goods you need to strip out the quality, make the goods as cheaply as possible, set a price that makes the consumer believe it is valuable and then market the crap out of it in some moronic, pretentious manner that gets the debt monkey salivating. So many things have played into Lotus’s hands over the last two decades such as the downsizing to fewer pots, the consumer wanting to pay more for goods as this validates their desire and the consumer caring less and less about quality. But the one thing that Lotus has manifestly failed on is image. No one on the planet thinks that if they are associated with the Lotus badge they will be a better person with more people being impressed by them so no one is willing to borrow money to pay to be associated with that brand.
You take Porsche, Rolex or any of the big modern brands and you can do what you like under the bonnet, charge what you like but the person who rents one and then rocks up outside Southern Fried Chicken is going to be cruising away with an STD riddled skank leaving behind a gang of men who’s trousers are only being held up by the boner that you have given them in your Porsche badged vehicle. Turn up at your local Southern Fried Chicken in a Lotus and you’ll be able to park up, walk in, realise you’re not the sort of person who eats fried chicken, walk out and drive away with no one ever noticing you were there and without your car resembling a decorators radio.
Let’s not forget what happened to the last British car manufacturer who had failed to maintain a brand in the modern consumer market and was bought out by a large overseas firm that invested a lot of money. If Lotus don’t change their brand positioning to fit the modern world and so find modern consumers willing to finance chunky debt obligations in order to be seen with that brand then Lotus is just the next Rover.
DonkeyApple said:
You take Porsche, Rolex or any of the big modern brands and you can do what you like under the bonnet, charge what you like but the person who rents one and then rocks up outside Southern Fried Chicken is going to be cruising away with an STD riddled skank leaving behind a gang of men who’s trousers are only being held up by the boner that you have given them in your Porsche badged vehicle. Turn up at your local Southern Fried Chicken in a Lotus and you’ll be able to park up, walk in, realise you’re not the sort of person who eats fried chicken, walk out and drive away with no one ever noticing you were there and without your car resembling a decorators radio.
Comedy gold but so true...
unpc said:
DonkeyApple said:
You take Porsche, Rolex or any of the big modern brands and you can do what you like under the bonnet, charge what you like but the person who rents one and then rocks up outside Southern Fried Chicken is going to be cruising away with an STD riddled skank leaving behind a gang of men who’s trousers are only being held up by the boner that you have given them in your Porsche badged vehicle. Turn up at your local Southern Fried Chicken in a Lotus and you’ll be able to park up, walk in, realise you’re not the sort of person who eats fried chicken, walk out and drive away with no one ever noticing you were there and without your car resembling a decorators radio.
Comedy gold but so true...
Sebastian Tombs said:
Max_Torque said:
If Lotus started today on an EV sports car, the soonest they could get it to market would, realistically be 10 years ago in 2008.
Fixed that for you :-D
At best they will go hybrid along with the rear of the world and their governments so as to sell in major cities where most target consumers live.
Sebastian Tombs said:
Max_Torque said:
If Lotus started today on an EV sports car, the soonest they could get it to market would, realistically be 10 years ago in 2008.
Fixed that for you :-DA puka 'designed as an EV from the get go" sports car is a very different thing, and requires a completely new approach to the BIW as compared to the old extruded Elise chassis (designed to take a small, low cyl count engine transversely 'twix the rear wheels)
Much as I’d like to see it I can’t see them doing anything remotely comparable to the pile ‘em high sell ‘em cheap mx-5 (yours for under 17k and on 0% (or 199 down/199 month))
Most likely in the short term we’ll see some badge engineered Volvo SUVs and perhaps Polestars IMO (inc EV).
And longer term it’d be nice to see their take on the Alpine A110, perhaps they could hop into bed with Renault (in Caterhams place!) for the next version.
On the other hand perhaps I’m thinking way too small, if they do get 1.5 billion could that get them anywhere near McLarens stratosphere?
http://cars.mclaren.com/featured-articles/track22....
And how would they differentiate themselves? Will be fascinating to find out, at least they’ve not gone under!
Most likely in the short term we’ll see some badge engineered Volvo SUVs and perhaps Polestars IMO (inc EV).
And longer term it’d be nice to see their take on the Alpine A110, perhaps they could hop into bed with Renault (in Caterhams place!) for the next version.
On the other hand perhaps I’m thinking way too small, if they do get 1.5 billion could that get them anywhere near McLarens stratosphere?
http://cars.mclaren.com/featured-articles/track22....
And how would they differentiate themselves? Will be fascinating to find out, at least they’ve not gone under!
Edited by danp on Thursday 16th August 12:59
Tuna said:
unpc said:
DonkeyApple said:
You take Porsche, Rolex or any of the big modern brands and you can do what you like under the bonnet, charge what you like but the person who rents one and then rocks up outside Southern Fried Chicken is going to be cruising away with an STD riddled skank leaving behind a gang of men who’s trousers are only being held up by the boner that you have given them in your Porsche badged vehicle. Turn up at your local Southern Fried Chicken in a Lotus and you’ll be able to park up, walk in, realise you’re not the sort of person who eats fried chicken, walk out and drive away with no one ever noticing you were there and without your car resembling a decorators radio.
Comedy gold but so true...suffolk009 said:
Tuna said:
unpc said:
DonkeyApple said:
You take Porsche, Rolex or any of the big modern brands and you can do what you like under the bonnet, charge what you like but the person who rents one and then rocks up outside Southern Fried Chicken is going to be cruising away with an STD riddled skank leaving behind a gang of men who’s trousers are only being held up by the boner that you have given them in your Porsche badged vehicle. Turn up at your local Southern Fried Chicken in a Lotus and you’ll be able to park up, walk in, realise you’re not the sort of person who eats fried chicken, walk out and drive away with no one ever noticing you were there and without your car resembling a decorators radio.
Comedy gold but so true...suffolk009 said:
Well those are far points. But I think you're wrong about the Fried Chicken. The stuff you buy on the high street is often gross - so make it yourself with decent chicken. The trick is poach it in milk before egg and flouring it. Do it carefully and it can be absolutely delicious.
I think you may be wrong - I thought the trick was to use buttermilk?suffolk009 said:
Tuna said:
unpc said:
DonkeyApple said:
You take Porsche, Rolex or any of the big modern brands and you can do what you like under the bonnet, charge what you like but the person who rents one and then rocks up outside Southern Fried Chicken is going to be cruising away with an STD riddled skank leaving behind a gang of men who’s trousers are only being held up by the boner that you have given them in your Porsche badged vehicle. Turn up at your local Southern Fried Chicken in a Lotus and you’ll be able to park up, walk in, realise you’re not the sort of person who eats fried chicken, walk out and drive away with no one ever noticing you were there and without your car resembling a decorators radio.
Comedy gold but so true...
lol
about as valid as an argument that baseball is rounders
halt now Ye of Blighty who claim fried chicken as fab or foul
and instead take notice:
https://www.southernliving.com/food/whats-for-supp...
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