RE: Tesla Full Self Driving: Time For Tea
Discussion
kambites said:
Paul Dishman said:
... Once the tech works then it'll be made compulsory and that'll be the end of driving.
You are of course at liberty to believe whatever you want, but personally I think there's only a minute chance of that ever happening and zero chance of it happening within my lifetime. It’ll have a very limited effect on driving enthusiasts, they’ll just stick to classics. The biggest impact to enthusiasts would be that it would make the roads more pleasant to use by removing the most annoying road users, the ones that have no interest in driving.
Given that everyone want's their cars to be automatic this, and automatic that, self driving car will be hovered up by the masses.
Given the EU wants cars with GPS speed limiters on by 2022, this can only be the next step in the communist EU. Rule the people, know what they do and where they go at all times.
Given the EU wants cars with GPS speed limiters on by 2022, this can only be the next step in the communist EU. Rule the people, know what they do and where they go at all times.
It's impressive tech but I feel like there's a lot more to be done before it truly befits its "autopilot" name.
Have you ever been driving and seen someone in the distance at a junction who you just have a vibe is going to pull out, or you're behind someone who you can see are not being observant enough - e.g. driving over roundabouts without hesitating, or showing poor observational / hazard perception skills? Sometimes you can be near to someone who you just feel is "an accident waiting to happen". You can get a good vibe about people's driving ability based on their road positioning and observation skills, and driving standards are all over the place on our roads.
I fail to see how automated systems like these will ever effectively "see" those dangers, that require you to adapt your own position, speed, etc in anticipation of something happening. It's all very well looking at physical objects on a radar but I feel like this only tells part of the story.
Granted some of the stuff Tesla have already done is worthy of praise, like the accident anticipation stuff which (I think?) is based on an analysis of how heavy cars in front are braking. Stuff that augments driver perception is definitely good for everyone. FSD though, in terms of beyond your car driving to you from inside a multi-storey, etc.. is a domain that I don't think is going to be cracked any time soon, and - ironically - is unlikely to be until such time that FSD cars are the dominant vehicle on the road. It sortof feels like a chicken and egg probem.
Have you ever been driving and seen someone in the distance at a junction who you just have a vibe is going to pull out, or you're behind someone who you can see are not being observant enough - e.g. driving over roundabouts without hesitating, or showing poor observational / hazard perception skills? Sometimes you can be near to someone who you just feel is "an accident waiting to happen". You can get a good vibe about people's driving ability based on their road positioning and observation skills, and driving standards are all over the place on our roads.
I fail to see how automated systems like these will ever effectively "see" those dangers, that require you to adapt your own position, speed, etc in anticipation of something happening. It's all very well looking at physical objects on a radar but I feel like this only tells part of the story.
Granted some of the stuff Tesla have already done is worthy of praise, like the accident anticipation stuff which (I think?) is based on an analysis of how heavy cars in front are braking. Stuff that augments driver perception is definitely good for everyone. FSD though, in terms of beyond your car driving to you from inside a multi-storey, etc.. is a domain that I don't think is going to be cracked any time soon, and - ironically - is unlikely to be until such time that FSD cars are the dominant vehicle on the road. It sortof feels like a chicken and egg probem.
The trick Elon has pulled is every Tesla S X & 3 sold has been data logging to some degree 
Unlike everyone else running a small fleet of cars & test drivers etc. I've been saying it for a while, they are so far ahead of the competition.
Only last week I spotted a Red S navigating the busy streets of paris (some feat in itself as a driver!!) In what appeared to be autonomous mode.
Unlike everyone else running a small fleet of cars & test drivers etc. I've been saying it for a while, they are so far ahead of the competition.Only last week I spotted a Red S navigating the busy streets of paris (some feat in itself as a driver!!) In what appeared to be autonomous mode.
The biggest down side for me is that an autonomous car will never have the ability to ease it's way out of a busy junction.
Making eye contact with the oncoming driver and all that then sticking your nose in the gap. Autonomous cars will always err on the side of caution.
The solution will be more and more sets of traffic lights to the point that even though we are being driven every journey will take twice as long.
Making eye contact with the oncoming driver and all that then sticking your nose in the gap. Autonomous cars will always err on the side of caution.
The solution will be more and more sets of traffic lights to the point that even though we are being driven every journey will take twice as long.
kambites said:
There's no doubting that it's impressive but the problem with getting to full automation is that the difference between being able to do that 99 times out of 100, and being able to do it 100 times out of 100 is really quite significant.
very unlikely to ever happen, but also not necessary, if self driving cars halved the risk of being in accident over a human driver its a better choice, at 99% reduction to risk it would be foolish to not use it Paul Dishman said:
Some strange reactions posted above on a car enthusiasts forum. Personally I think the introduction of autonomous driving is a dystopian nightmare. Once the tech works then it'll be made compulsory and that'll be the end of driving.
100% this will happen. I don't think the actual banning of driving will be in our lifetimes though, so f
k it. Personally, if I could set a destination and press go, that would be 95% of my time spent in a car automated. Yes please. But for it to be truly effective and to reduce travel times and road congestion they need make motorway driving 100% autonomous. Remove the a
holes driving at 90+ (or just make everyone do 90, whatever works) and the dithers pissing around at 50 and watch as we all get where we're going on time, every time. Durzel said:
It's impressive tech but I feel like there's a lot more to be done before it truly befits its "autopilot" name.
Have you ever been driving and seen someone in the distance at a junction who you just have a vibe is going to pull out, or you're behind someone who you can see are not being observant enough - e.g. driving over roundabouts without hesitating, or showing poor observational / hazard perception skills? Sometimes you can be near to someone who you just feel is "an accident waiting to happen". You can get a good vibe about people's driving ability based on their road positioning and observation skills, and driving standards are all over the place on our roads.
I fail to see how automated systems like these will ever effectively "see" those dangers, that require you to adapt your own position, speed, etc in anticipation of something happening. It's all very well looking at physical objects on a radar but I feel like this only tells part of the story.
Granted some of the stuff Tesla have already done is worthy of praise, like the accident anticipation stuff which (I think?) is based on an analysis of how heavy cars in front are braking. Stuff that augments driver perception is definitely good for everyone. FSD though, in terms of beyond your car driving to you from inside a multi-storey, etc.. is a domain that I don't think is going to be cracked any time soon, and - ironically - is unlikely to be until such time that FSD cars are the dominant vehicle on the road. It sortof feels like a chicken and egg probem.
watch the full 2 hour video, what they are doing to teach their AI is massively impressive, when fully integrated there is very little it wont be able to cope withHave you ever been driving and seen someone in the distance at a junction who you just have a vibe is going to pull out, or you're behind someone who you can see are not being observant enough - e.g. driving over roundabouts without hesitating, or showing poor observational / hazard perception skills? Sometimes you can be near to someone who you just feel is "an accident waiting to happen". You can get a good vibe about people's driving ability based on their road positioning and observation skills, and driving standards are all over the place on our roads.
I fail to see how automated systems like these will ever effectively "see" those dangers, that require you to adapt your own position, speed, etc in anticipation of something happening. It's all very well looking at physical objects on a radar but I feel like this only tells part of the story.
Granted some of the stuff Tesla have already done is worthy of praise, like the accident anticipation stuff which (I think?) is based on an analysis of how heavy cars in front are braking. Stuff that augments driver perception is definitely good for everyone. FSD though, in terms of beyond your car driving to you from inside a multi-storey, etc.. is a domain that I don't think is going to be cracked any time soon, and - ironically - is unlikely to be until such time that FSD cars are the dominant vehicle on the road. It sortof feels like a chicken and egg probem.
They are using their whole 'fleet' to teach their neural net, because of its size they have 100s of millions if not billions of miles of more data than any of their competitors, and the fleet is growing very quickly
Fiesta1.0L said:
Daylight. Effectively zero traffic. Wide roads, good surface quality, clear markings. Known, chosen route.
This stuff is a decade away from deployment in most parts of the world.
This is also their video, under their conditions. They could hae 100 people controlling this, and a supercomputer in the back of the van following behind. It could be the 20th take of the video.
Tesla is out of money. Musk is about to do a placement so trying to pump the share price for all it's worth. Treat this with a gargntuan pinch of bull sh*t.
watch the full video, their AI is learning this stuff everywhere the cars are being driving, its even being taught about air borne cars lol This stuff is a decade away from deployment in most parts of the world.
This is also their video, under their conditions. They could hae 100 people controlling this, and a supercomputer in the back of the van following behind. It could be the 20th take of the video.
Tesla is out of money. Musk is about to do a placement so trying to pump the share price for all it's worth. Treat this with a gargntuan pinch of bull sh*t.
far more impressive than this clip is the car driving down a country lane predicting where the corners go spot on, even thou the driver can not see them
https://youtu.be/Ucp0TTmvqOE?t=4160
Paul Dishman said:
Some strange reactions posted above on a car enthusiasts forum. Personally I think the introduction of autonomous driving is a dystopian nightmare. Once the tech works then it'll be made compulsory and that'll be the end of driving.
A touch of hyperbole there, n'est pas?Does anyone enjoy commuting? There's one application off the top of my head that would be immeasurably improved by FSD. How about driving you home after a night on the tiles (assuming the tech really didn't need a driver by then, as you'd be drunk) ?
How many of us can say hand on heart that every time we go out for a drive that it is a fun filled adventure? I would suggest that most of the journeys that most people do are mundane.
The suggestion that this would "make manual driving illegal" is nonsense when you consider that unless the Government start subsidising car purchases there will always be people who can't afford the newer FSD cars, or own classic cars, etc. Have new cars forced classics that don't have airbags or require the driver to wear a seatbelt off the road? No.
Dave Hedgehog said:
Aka vanishing points or limit points, its an advanced driving techique that has been cleverly adapted. I understood, from some guys developing self driving cars over here, that the Tesla approach not using LIDAR is fundamentally flawed, and that the safety case for LIDAR is pretty conclusive. Unfortunately LIDAR is not cheap!
I am sorry, I can’t remember the details but it was explained and it made sense. I would not put my life in the hands of a Tesla at the current time.
I am sorry, I can’t remember the details but it was explained and it made sense. I would not put my life in the hands of a Tesla at the current time.
jmcc500 said:
I understood, from some guys developing self driving cars over here, that the Tesla approach not using LIDAR is fundamentally flawed, and that the safety case for LIDAR is pretty conclusive. Unfortunately LIDAR is not cheap!
I am sorry, I can’t remember the details but it was explained and it made sense. I would not put my life in the hands of a Tesla at the current time.
If you're developing using Lidar, you're bound to diss the other guy's system.I am sorry, I can’t remember the details but it was explained and it made sense. I would not put my life in the hands of a Tesla at the current time.
Here's a reasonably balanced piece on the pros and cons of visual and Lidar: https://www.autopilotreview.com/lidar-vs-cameras-s...
Fiesta1.0L said:
This is also their video, under their conditions. They could hae 100 people controlling this, and a supercomputer in the back of the van following behind. It could be the 20th take of the video.
The 'supercomputer' is a chip sat behind the glovebox. It's a very long watch but this video explains the tech by the people who designed and built it.The last hour is typical Musk. Wildly optimistic goals, timeframes and pricing. It left me unsure as to whether he is a pioneering genius or a deluded madman. That said, he does land rockets as a side gig.
He sees the future of transport as cars without pedals or steering wheels. Where when you're not using your car you can share it with others in the network as a robotaxi and earn an income from it.
Like him or loathe him he really is a forward thinker. Mainstream manufacturers still haven't caught up with Tesla of 2012. The stuff these guys are working on now was science fiction ten years ago.
jmcc500 said:
I understood, from some guys developing self driving cars over here, that the Tesla approach not using LIDAR is fundamentally flawed, and that the safety case for LIDAR is pretty conclusive. Unfortunately LIDAR is not cheap!
I am sorry, I can’t remember the details but it was explained and it made sense. I would not put my life in the hands of a Tesla at the current time.
Well done their live stream yesterday they made the entire case for LiDAR not being fit for purpose. One example being working out if an object in the road is a plastic bag or a tyre. Computer vision can do that. LiDAR can't. I am sorry, I can’t remember the details but it was explained and it made sense. I would not put my life in the hands of a Tesla at the current time.
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