RE: Tesla Full Self Driving: Time For Tea
Discussion
"*ding-dong*"
"Oh, hello, you're here. Did you manage to find a parking space? It's almost impossible in this neighbourhood around this time, you know."
"I didn't bother. I'm sure the car will find somewhere to put itself."
"Right. Would you like something to drink?"
"Yes, please. I could do with lots of hard liquor. I don't need to drive to get home, anyway."
"Oh, hello, you're here. Did you manage to find a parking space? It's almost impossible in this neighbourhood around this time, you know."
"I didn't bother. I'm sure the car will find somewhere to put itself."
"Right. Would you like something to drink?"
"Yes, please. I could do with lots of hard liquor. I don't need to drive to get home, anyway."
An announcement from someone with a history of hyperbole in his announcements & who is looking for more investment - making absolute statements with no concrete backup...
How can he be so absolute when 2020 is ahead of the timescale needed for legislative decisions / testing / etc. - I would be very surprised if you could buy a Tesla and drive it autonomously from London to Glasgow in 2020 - being able to do so in a controlled environment - yes, but really not as implied, nor exciting!
There are huge issues which are skimmed over - the industry seems to be one where as long as you make proclamations in black and white terms - even without any ability to support them, then the press are all over it... - emperor's new clothes?!
The biggest, unaddressed, issue is the arrogance of those in the industry which is geared towards making themselves money - that same arrogance which will be (and is) pushing the technology into production will be the reason for issues / accidents / deaths... we have already seen examples of autonomous technology getting it wrong (e.g. braking when spotting a car ahead on a bend, but on the other side of the road) - the thought of relying on the current state of technology is scary...
it is not difficult to present the technology looking impressive, showing the same thing while Mrs Miggins with Dementia wanders out into the road, while a dog chases a cat across the road, a small child follows his football out and behind you a police chase means that car is not going to stop before hitting you - now that is a little bit tougher! There are too many scenarios yet un-tested...
despite the claims, none of this is true AI - there is no intelligence in the system - it is simply learning case examples and building knowledge from previous patterns... if it was AI, you could push the car out with no knowledge bank and it would instantly react intelligently... the problem with this form of 'non-AI' is that if there is no experience on how to deal with a particular pattern / scenario, the machine can only opt for a default approach - which is going to be pull over and stop - nowhere near what a good driver could do - though possibly better than some bad - average drivers!
in summary - non news aimed at Elon Musk / Tesla looking good...
How can he be so absolute when 2020 is ahead of the timescale needed for legislative decisions / testing / etc. - I would be very surprised if you could buy a Tesla and drive it autonomously from London to Glasgow in 2020 - being able to do so in a controlled environment - yes, but really not as implied, nor exciting!
There are huge issues which are skimmed over - the industry seems to be one where as long as you make proclamations in black and white terms - even without any ability to support them, then the press are all over it... - emperor's new clothes?!
The biggest, unaddressed, issue is the arrogance of those in the industry which is geared towards making themselves money - that same arrogance which will be (and is) pushing the technology into production will be the reason for issues / accidents / deaths... we have already seen examples of autonomous technology getting it wrong (e.g. braking when spotting a car ahead on a bend, but on the other side of the road) - the thought of relying on the current state of technology is scary...
it is not difficult to present the technology looking impressive, showing the same thing while Mrs Miggins with Dementia wanders out into the road, while a dog chases a cat across the road, a small child follows his football out and behind you a police chase means that car is not going to stop before hitting you - now that is a little bit tougher! There are too many scenarios yet un-tested...
despite the claims, none of this is true AI - there is no intelligence in the system - it is simply learning case examples and building knowledge from previous patterns... if it was AI, you could push the car out with no knowledge bank and it would instantly react intelligently... the problem with this form of 'non-AI' is that if there is no experience on how to deal with a particular pattern / scenario, the machine can only opt for a default approach - which is going to be pull over and stop - nowhere near what a good driver could do - though possibly better than some bad - average drivers!
in summary - non news aimed at Elon Musk / Tesla looking good...
3795mpower said:
fblm said:
3795mpower said:
I know that’s a US highway but didn’t that thing just undertake a bunch of
Cars along the way ?
Both legal and totally normal on US highways.Cars along the way ?
If you are driving and change direction what makes it so difficult to look one way relative to the other, do people change lanes without looking in the UK secure in the knowledge nothing will be there because its a bit naughty ?
Should be legal over here, so like earlier the Aygo doing fifty in the outside lane doesn't have a 10 car tailback of frustrated drivers.
Dave Hedgehog said:
They are using their whole 'fleet' to teach their neural net, because of its size they have 100s of millions if not billions of miles of more data than any of their competitors, and the fleet is growing very quickly
Exactly. Musk is fifty moves ahead. Forget the headlines about Model 3 production snafus. Tesla is achieving sales volumes in the US that all other aspirant EV makers can only dream of; and his decision to eschew LIDAR and rely instead on machine learning will be key to their success in persuading regulators to allow increasing levels of automated driving on public roads. News: world first showing cutting edge technology in a $35k car that will revolutionise a $1 trillion industry.
PH Forum response: My mate Dave down the pub, he knows a software engineer bloke who says he would sooner set himself on fire than own or be a passenger in one of these $100k coffins!
J4CKO said:
Why ?
If you are driving and change direction what makes it so difficult to look one way relative to the other, do people change lanes without looking in the UK secure in the knowledge nothing will be there because its a bit naughty ?
Should be legal over here, so like earlier the Aygo doing fifty in the outside lane doesn't have a 10 car tailback of frustrated drivers.
Yep I’d love to see that adopted here as well as the way they effectively switch the traffic lights off between midnight and 6am so you can just treat the junctions as a giveaway. I drive to work at 4am and have to stop at quite a few traffic lights for no reason including some on empty roundabouts on the approach to Motorways. Would cut journey time and emissions and be cheap to implement.If you are driving and change direction what makes it so difficult to look one way relative to the other, do people change lanes without looking in the UK secure in the knowledge nothing will be there because its a bit naughty ?
Should be legal over here, so like earlier the Aygo doing fifty in the outside lane doesn't have a 10 car tailback of frustrated drivers.
yonex said:
Returning from Cornwall this weekend stopped at the services and scanned Autocar. Audi E-Tron vs the Model X (or whatever). Cheaper, ride and handling superior, better put together.
Tesla are screwed.
No massive Tesla fanboy but isnt the Audi still a fair way off production, can buy a Tesla right now, see loads of them daily.Tesla are screwed.
The mainstream manufacturers are definitely catching up after being caught napping though.
Harry H said:
The solution will be more and more sets of traffic lights to the point that even though we are being driven every journey will take twice as long.
The long term solution, and indeed plan, is that the cars will communicate with each other so they will create spaces and work as one not in competition with each other like human drivers do.tr3a said:
"*ding-dong*"
"Oh, hello, you're here. Did you manage to find a parking space? It's almost impossible in this neighbourhood around this time, you know."
"I didn't bother. I'm sure the car will find somewhere to put itself."
"Right. Would you like something to drink?"
"Yes, please. I could do with lots of hard liquor. I don't need to drive to get home, anyway."
That already exists, it's called a taxi. "Oh, hello, you're here. Did you manage to find a parking space? It's almost impossible in this neighbourhood around this time, you know."
"I didn't bother. I'm sure the car will find somewhere to put itself."
"Right. Would you like something to drink?"
"Yes, please. I could do with lots of hard liquor. I don't need to drive to get home, anyway."
Dave Hedgehog said:
Durzel said:
It's impressive tech but I feel like there's a lot more to be done before it truly befits its "autopilot" name.
Have you ever been driving and seen someone in the distance at a junction who you just have a vibe is going to pull out, or you're behind someone who you can see are not being observant enough - e.g. driving over roundabouts without hesitating, or showing poor observational / hazard perception skills? Sometimes you can be near to someone who you just feel is "an accident waiting to happen". You can get a good vibe about people's driving ability based on their road positioning and observation skills, and driving standards are all over the place on our roads.
I fail to see how automated systems like these will ever effectively "see" those dangers, that require you to adapt your own position, speed, etc in anticipation of something happening. It's all very well looking at physical objects on a radar but I feel like this only tells part of the story.
Granted some of the stuff Tesla have already done is worthy of praise, like the accident anticipation stuff which (I think?) is based on an analysis of how heavy cars in front are braking. Stuff that augments driver perception is definitely good for everyone. FSD though, in terms of beyond your car driving to you from inside a multi-storey, etc.. is a domain that I don't think is going to be cracked any time soon, and - ironically - is unlikely to be until such time that FSD cars are the dominant vehicle on the road. It sortof feels like a chicken and egg probem.
watch the full 2 hour video, what they are doing to teach their AI is massively impressive, when fully integrated there is very little it wont be able to cope withHave you ever been driving and seen someone in the distance at a junction who you just have a vibe is going to pull out, or you're behind someone who you can see are not being observant enough - e.g. driving over roundabouts without hesitating, or showing poor observational / hazard perception skills? Sometimes you can be near to someone who you just feel is "an accident waiting to happen". You can get a good vibe about people's driving ability based on their road positioning and observation skills, and driving standards are all over the place on our roads.
I fail to see how automated systems like these will ever effectively "see" those dangers, that require you to adapt your own position, speed, etc in anticipation of something happening. It's all very well looking at physical objects on a radar but I feel like this only tells part of the story.
Granted some of the stuff Tesla have already done is worthy of praise, like the accident anticipation stuff which (I think?) is based on an analysis of how heavy cars in front are braking. Stuff that augments driver perception is definitely good for everyone. FSD though, in terms of beyond your car driving to you from inside a multi-storey, etc.. is a domain that I don't think is going to be cracked any time soon, and - ironically - is unlikely to be until such time that FSD cars are the dominant vehicle on the road. It sortof feels like a chicken and egg probem.
They are using their whole 'fleet' to teach their neural net, because of its size they have 100s of millions if not billions of miles of more data than any of their competitors, and the fleet is growing very quickly
1. Bad drivers / accident waiting to happen. How to deal with this (from Tesla)? I'd play devils advocate, and say you know what, those f
kwits who've had st loads of accidents shouldn't be on the road to begin with. If they cant get their st together, take their license off them. Or, and here's a radical idea, FORCE them to use an autonomous car, because with their driving history, they've proven they cant be trusted.2. Seeing those dangers; yes, there are tell tale signs of bad driving, which may not have resulted in accidents yet. You don't want to be their first victim either, though. But what really makes you think that an autonomous car won't keep distance from one of these drivers, just the same as keeping distance from any other driver?
3. I'm massively in favour of autonomous cars, because there is a not insignificant section of society for whom transport is prohibitive. My wife is vision impaired, and not allowed to drive. Had she access to an autonomous car, then there are many aspects of her life that would be improved. Many things that other people perhaps take for granted, would all of a sudden become possible for her. In addition to this, my own life would be easier, because instead of there being just the one driver in our family of 4, and hence me driving for 4, perhaps having 2 vehicles in the family (one being autonomous), would halve my required driving.
I personally think its a great idea. If you don't want it, you still have years ahead of you where you don't have to uptake this. And think of the number of people that will not be killed; one may never know whether one of their own family members were destined to be a road traffic fatality, but for this technology...
J4CKO said:
No massive Tesla fanboy but isnt the Audi still a fair way off production, can buy a Tesla right now, see loads of them daily.
The mainstream manufacturers are definitely catching up after being caught napping though.
I-Pace is better in every way bar range, E-Tron the same. Tesla will just shrink back into a technology supplier as predicted by everyone. The Tesla range already looks dated to me, I'm no fan of either but i'd take the semi sane Audi styling over the unfinished blob model that Tesla seem to favour. The mainstream manufacturers are definitely catching up after being caught napping though.
I know nothing about this, therefore, I'm perfectly qualified to comment.
Is it not beyond the realms of possibility, in a relatively short time frame (15 years?) and with a competent government (!) to mandate that ALL vehicles on motorways be capable of full automation?
One could engage auto mode on the on ramp and disengage at one's exit.
Motorway driving has certain parameters that seem, to an ignoramous such as myself, ideally suited to mass automation.
Make it so.
Is it not beyond the realms of possibility, in a relatively short time frame (15 years?) and with a competent government (!) to mandate that ALL vehicles on motorways be capable of full automation?
One could engage auto mode on the on ramp and disengage at one's exit.
Motorway driving has certain parameters that seem, to an ignoramous such as myself, ideally suited to mass automation.
Make it so.
jmcc500 said:
I understood, from some guys developing self driving cars over here, that the Tesla approach not using LIDAR is fundamentally flawed, and that the safety case for LIDAR is pretty conclusive. Unfortunately LIDAR is not cheap!
I am sorry, I can’t remember the details but it was explained and it made sense. I would not put my life in the hands of a Tesla at the current time.
Apparently they have 2 CPUs inside the module that constantly double check and second guess each other. They also use stereoscopic vision to produce a similar point cloud as LiDAR. Ergo LiDAR is redundant (according to fanbois on Reddit). They also sensor fuse ultrasonics for near field and front/read radar.I am sorry, I can’t remember the details but it was explained and it made sense. I would not put my life in the hands of a Tesla at the current time.
I'm not so sure as I assume LiDAR can see equally as well in dark and/or poor conditions were "vision" is limited.
It's impressive stuff none the less. Not sure I'd put them way out front mind. Could we end up with a VHS Vs Betamax style battle for autonomous tech?
cognac1979 said:
I wonder how an autonomous would deal with meeting a combine harvester on a back road in summer when the hedges are overgrown. Try that one Elon! I would like an autonomous lift home from the pub though.
Thats a 99.999999 edge case, and the car doesnt need to know its a combine harvester just a large vehicle blocking the road. I used to think lidar would be essential but tesla make a convincing argument that its superfluous.
Also interesting point made yesterday is that every tesla made since 2016 has completely redundant systems (in terms of cpus, power, data etc) for autonomous driving, has been a lot of talk about cars requiring this and tesla didnt have it.
Also interesting point made yesterday is that every tesla made since 2016 has completely redundant systems (in terms of cpus, power, data etc) for autonomous driving, has been a lot of talk about cars requiring this and tesla didnt have it.
Gassing Station | General Gassing | Top of Page | What's New | My Stuff