If the car industry were like the airline industry...
Discussion
Agreed, but I would think a large proportion of road deaths are ultimately human error.
The aviation industry spends an awful lot of time and money to reduce human error and have redundancy/backup to catch those errors. Even when you qualify as a pilot you still have to do regular refreshers/new subject training and then if you want to switch aircraft you need to type cert too.
We let the great unwashed drive on the roads with a minimum of tuition and never revisit or update that initial training.
The aviation industry spends an awful lot of time and money to reduce human error and have redundancy/backup to catch those errors. Even when you qualify as a pilot you still have to do regular refreshers/new subject training and then if you want to switch aircraft you need to type cert too.
We let the great unwashed drive on the roads with a minimum of tuition and never revisit or update that initial training.
Looking at the OP's question:
If the car industry had taken the same approach from the beginning, where every serious car accident was studied and measures put in place to prevent it happening again, what would cars and driving be like today?
There would be very few private car drivers. Those that did, would have their day extended due to the need to meticuloulsy inspect their vehicle, and record that inspection.
Most people would only be allowed to take buses, driven by people who had undergone stringent training.
If the car industry had taken the same approach from the beginning, where every serious car accident was studied and measures put in place to prevent it happening again, what would cars and driving be like today?
There would be very few private car drivers. Those that did, would have their day extended due to the need to meticuloulsy inspect their vehicle, and record that inspection.
Most people would only be allowed to take buses, driven by people who had undergone stringent training.
TwigtheWonderkid said:
Countdown said:
Condi said:
Pica-Pica said:
The car industry and airplane industry are very, very similar in terms of FMEAs.
They are? Why were so many Vauxhalls setting themselves on fire the other year? Ford Pinto's had a appalling safety record which Ford refused to recognise, let alone fix. There are numerous models with known failure points; some are fixed under warranty, many are not.
Maybe internally the failure models are similar, but publicly do the car industry do anywhere near as much to look after their products and admit problems?
(by plane crash I mean an all lives lost jet or similar. I know there are minor plane crashes on a regular basis, with no loss of life).
UK road travel was 328.1bn vehicle miles / 528bn vehicle kms in 2018:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-set...
Deaths are, what, 1770 per year?
That makes it 1 death per 185,310,734.46 miles of vehicle travel.
If we assume average vehicle occupancy of, what, 1.2 (??) then that gives 1 death per 154,425,611.66 miles travelled.
If we assume 8k miles per year as the average distance travelled (which might actually be 5k miles, I can't remember) then that gives 19303.2 years before your first fatal accident.
I don't know how you'd slice the aviation statistics - flights leaving the UK only? Flights arriving and leaving? UK-registered airline companies only? UK-registered aircraft only?
The latter has accident statistics in TSGB0214a:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-set...
which shows 21 fatalities in 2017 across all UK-registered aircraft undertaking all activities within UK airspace, with another 1 each for UK craft in foreign airspace and foreign craft in UK airspace, so 23 in all..
Table TSGB0213 has British Airways as flying 42.6m passengers travelling 144.5bn km but I'm struggling to find any other airline info or an overall summary of passenger kms for UK-registered aircraft.
Using those figures, that gives 3392 km / 2120 miles per BA passenger.
If we use 23 fatalities over 144bn km, that's 1 death per 6,282,608,695.65 km or 3,926,630,434.78 miles.
If the average of 2120 miles air travel per year per passenger is applied to that, it's 1,852,184 years between being involved in a fatal air accident.
If we work on the basis that all the other UK-registered airlines' travel adds up to the BA distance travelled, that would double the passenger kms but the deaths would remain the same, which would therefore double the distances / times above.
On either basis, deaths per unit of distance travelled by air would seem an order of magnitude lower than road travel, but then distances travelled are much higher per unit of time and air travel is (for most people) a once- or twice-yearly event, as compared to a daily event for car travel for many people, so exposure to risk would seem much lower.
Additionally, the road fatalities do of course include those outside the vehicle involved, so it's not just a case of counting those doing the travelling by road - we'd also have to include distances and/or time for those walking or cycling, which would likely increase the distance travelled / time between fatalities.
So, er, TL:DR would be 'it seems complicated'... lol
Edited by RSTurboPaul on Sunday 21st July 21:30
DoubleD said:
You would be forced to walk past rows of perfume and designer sunglasses before you were allowed to get in the car.
On the upside you would have a giant Toblerone with you when the M25 was brought to a complete standstill for many hours / days because someone had been flying a drone nearby... allegedly. 
TheDrBrian said:
durbster said:
My guess:
- Autonomous cars would now be prevalent
Autopilot doesn't quite work how you think it does.- Autonomous cars would now be prevalent
Crafty_ said:
Agreed, but I would think a large proportion of road deaths are ultimately human error.
I think investigations would quickly determine that human error is the main cause of car problems, therefore efforts to automate as much as possible would have happened much sooner.
It would be much, much more difficult to get, and retain a driving license. You would have to pass a stringent medical examination and psychometric tests before getting a licence, and then again every year to retain it.
The driving test would be much, much more demanding and would include dealing with emergency situations in a simulator, and the threshold for passing it would be very high. You would also be re-tested every year.
The vast majority of the population would not be capable of passing all of the required tests to qualify for a license.
The driving test would be much, much more demanding and would include dealing with emergency situations in a simulator, and the threshold for passing it would be very high. You would also be re-tested every year.
The vast majority of the population would not be capable of passing all of the required tests to qualify for a license.
The fare will be listed at £19.99 but by the time all the extras have been added the fare will be £199.99.
Then you'd be charged £7.50 for entering car port properly on foot instead of using public transport.
You would have to queue for an hour before being strip searched and interrogated before being allowed through to car side.
Then a mile walk through 10 acres of perfume stores would be compulsory.
After at least an hours delay standing in the priority boarding queue (4 times longer than the normal boarding queue) you would be allowed to board the car.
It will be a Fiat Punto with modified seating to take 16 passengers.
You'll have to share the armrest with the obese passenger squashed in next to you.
You'll have to put up with the passenger sitting behind you randomly rattling the back of your seat for no apparent reason.
No seating adjustment will be possible, and If you are over 6 feet tall you'll have to sit in the stress position for the duration of your journey.
No personal refreshments will be allowed, minimum charge £5 for £250ml of water bought whilst in the car.
Through flow ventilation is not allowed, to save the carline a few pence on each flight, you will have to breathe recycled exhaust fumes.
You'll have head ache and back ache on your arrival, and exactly 3 days later a stinking cold will arrive, that will last for a further 2 weeks.
Then you'll have to do it all again 2 weeks later. The main difference will be that the return drive is guaranteed be delayed for 5 hours minimum.
.
Then you'd be charged £7.50 for entering car port properly on foot instead of using public transport.
You would have to queue for an hour before being strip searched and interrogated before being allowed through to car side.
Then a mile walk through 10 acres of perfume stores would be compulsory.
After at least an hours delay standing in the priority boarding queue (4 times longer than the normal boarding queue) you would be allowed to board the car.
It will be a Fiat Punto with modified seating to take 16 passengers.
You'll have to share the armrest with the obese passenger squashed in next to you.
You'll have to put up with the passenger sitting behind you randomly rattling the back of your seat for no apparent reason.
No seating adjustment will be possible, and If you are over 6 feet tall you'll have to sit in the stress position for the duration of your journey.
No personal refreshments will be allowed, minimum charge £5 for £250ml of water bought whilst in the car.
Through flow ventilation is not allowed, to save the carline a few pence on each flight, you will have to breathe recycled exhaust fumes.
You'll have head ache and back ache on your arrival, and exactly 3 days later a stinking cold will arrive, that will last for a further 2 weeks.
Then you'll have to do it all again 2 weeks later. The main difference will be that the return drive is guaranteed be delayed for 5 hours minimum.
.
I work in aerospace, and given the stuff I see behind the scenes, I'd wager the following:
Extremely strict safety regulations. Mandatory servicing every 5000 miles or 3 months (whatever's first), MOTs every 6 months, tyre tread depth limits of 3mm.
Every car designed with a backup ECU and wiring. A separate reserve fuel tank for emergencies. A requirement to carry a full servicing kit everywhere you go.
Mandatory pre- and post-driving checks. You are required to write in your service book every time you drive the car - mileage and time at start, mileage and time at end, rough journey plan, and anything you think needs looking at (e.g. noted a buzz from rear left speaker, recommend replacement)
Whenever you send the car in for a service (every 3 months), it ends up with much more work needed than you thought. You can't refuse. It'll cost about £2000 each time.
Cars will be sold at normal cost but will come with overinflated "service" plans - either you pay £1500 per month for your service plan, or you gamble that one of your 4 services per year won't cost more than £4500. If you go for the latter option you'll be presented with some form of bill that easily beats that.
Taxis will be even more heavily regulated and probably charge £100 per mile.
With all that said, the roads will be nice and empty!
Extremely strict safety regulations. Mandatory servicing every 5000 miles or 3 months (whatever's first), MOTs every 6 months, tyre tread depth limits of 3mm.
Every car designed with a backup ECU and wiring. A separate reserve fuel tank for emergencies. A requirement to carry a full servicing kit everywhere you go.
Mandatory pre- and post-driving checks. You are required to write in your service book every time you drive the car - mileage and time at start, mileage and time at end, rough journey plan, and anything you think needs looking at (e.g. noted a buzz from rear left speaker, recommend replacement)
Whenever you send the car in for a service (every 3 months), it ends up with much more work needed than you thought. You can't refuse. It'll cost about £2000 each time.
Cars will be sold at normal cost but will come with overinflated "service" plans - either you pay £1500 per month for your service plan, or you gamble that one of your 4 services per year won't cost more than £4500. If you go for the latter option you'll be presented with some form of bill that easily beats that.
Taxis will be even more heavily regulated and probably charge £100 per mile.
With all that said, the roads will be nice and empty!
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