Making money from shares/election - stupidly easy??

Making money from shares/election - stupidly easy??

Author
Discussion

Frimley111R

Original Poster:

15,662 posts

234 months

Friday 13th December 2019
quotequote all
Listening to the news today it said shares in major corporates jumped after the election. Given that it was a foregone conclusion who would win, was this the easiest way to make money ever?

orangesrule

1,433 posts

148 months

Friday 13th December 2019
quotequote all
I wouldn't have said it was a forgone conclusion. I was surprised with the weight of the result. There is still a gamble to be had.

BaldOldMan

4,650 posts

64 months

Friday 13th December 2019
quotequote all
If it was really a foregone conclusion, then prices would not have moved.....

It wasn't just the win, but also the size of the majority - the markets generally like stability.

shopper150

1,576 posts

194 months

Friday 13th December 2019
quotequote all
Was Trump winning a foregone conclusion?
Was the Brexit referendum result a foregone conclusion?

I think the foregone conclusion for both of those votes was different from the final result.

Benbay001

5,795 posts

157 months

Friday 13th December 2019
quotequote all
FFS Frimley.

Couldnt you have posted this yesterday? If i knew the result was a foregone conclusion i could have made a mint.

Simpo Two

85,422 posts

265 months

Friday 13th December 2019
quotequote all
I foresaw a Boris win and put some money on the gaming table accordingly. But I was staggered at the majority; when I first saw the numbers I thought I'd tuned into a liberal 'comedy' satire! Today I have enjoyed watching the news for the first time in months.

Sheepshanks

32,763 posts

119 months

Friday 13th December 2019
quotequote all
BaldOldMan said:
If it was really a foregone conclusion, then prices would not have moved.....
They'd probably have gone down - buy on the rumour, sell on the news.

TCX

1,976 posts

55 months

Friday 13th December 2019
quotequote all
Nope made more on Thursday there was sharp early fall in shares I follow then strong pm,any rise this morning would've had to be in overnight so bit of damp squib imho

Jon39

12,826 posts

143 months

Saturday 14th December 2019
quotequote all

Certain sectors did move significantly eg. including those under threat of nationalisation, but the Pound increased in value following the election result, so some major corporates (internationals) took a profits currency hit and did not have share price increases.
So much for broad brush news reports.




Edited by Jon39 on Saturday 14th December 20:43

Skyedriver

17,854 posts

282 months

Sunday 15th December 2019
quotequote all
Jon39 said:

Certain sectors did move significantly eg. including those under threat of nationalisation, but the Pound increased in value following the election result, so some major corporates (internationals) took a profits currency hit and did not have share price increases.
So much for broad brush news reports.




Edited by Jon39 on Saturday 14th December 20:43
^^this^^


Some of collection increased by really good amounts (e.g. RMG/BT/PSN) but others (BP/RDSB) dropped)
I could have made good bit of profit on Friday early on by selling my PSN then buying it back when it settled but having sat for 15 hours at a Polling Station on the Thursday then watched a good bit of the early results prog, I was pretty well brain numb.

Had a bad week really, saw the pre open news on Ted Baker, shares immediately dropped to mid £200s decided worth a go. HL wouldn't let me access. Eventually got a chance at about 312, decided not worth it as it would probably fall back again, Nope went up to about 340....

Jon39

12,826 posts

143 months

Sunday 15th December 2019
quotequote all

Skyedriver said:
Some of collection increased by really good amounts (e.g. RMG/BT/PSN) but others (BP/RDSB) dropped)
I could have made good bit of profit on Friday early on by selling my PSN then buying it back when it settled but having sat for 15 hours at a Polling Station on the Thursday then watched a good bit of the early results prog, I was pretty well brain numb.

Had a bad week really, saw the pre open news on Ted Baker, shares immediately dropped to mid £200s decided worth a go. HL wouldn't let me access. Eventually got a chance at about 312, decided not worth it as it would probably fall back again, Nope went up to about 340....

I have often wondered whether on average, short-term buying and selling produces better investment returns than long-term holdings?
Slightly off topic, which is about making money from a short-term opportunity, but perhaps this is a related aspect.

You refer to in/out opportunities Skyedriver, so if you keep detailed records of your trading, you might be able to enlighten me about the performance differences.

Except for an initial period of short-term dealings, I have always been a long-term investor.
If you wish to compare, then my 31 year annual average is +12.23% including dividends (year end 2018).
So far the 2019 performance is +16.41%, with a total dividends increase this year of 3.62%.
Holdings have always mostly been big FTSE 100 internationals, many of which have not had any dividend increases during recent years.
I have had zero transaction costs this year.

How does short-term trading compare on an annual measurement basis ?





Edited by Jon39 on Sunday 15th December 13:06

Cheib

23,248 posts

175 months

Sunday 15th December 2019
quotequote all
Frimley111R said:
Listening to the news today it said shares in major corporates jumped after the election. Given that it was a foregone conclusion who would win, was this the easiest way to make money ever?
It was a bifurcated trade/risk.....yes if you were long certain shares/FTSE you made a decent amount of money but I think the downside risk was much greater....I’d say you’d have lost twice as much and in some case probably more.

It’s also a trade where most people who could afford to make money out of it by being long stock markets are also probably higher rate taxpayers so we’re effectively “in the trade” because just by Boris winning they will be paying less tax etc.

Now I’m a higher rate tax payer and yes made money out of the market moves because of long term investments but was definitely doubling up.

NickCQ

5,392 posts

96 months

Sunday 15th December 2019
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Jon39 said:
How does short-term trading compare on an annual measurement basis ?
My suspicion is that retail investors usually get such bad execution (costs+bid/ask) that they are fighting with at least one hand tied behind their back.


anonymous-user

54 months

Sunday 15th December 2019
quotequote all
Such eloquence, and packed with helpful tips for others to follow.

Edit: The previous post was subsequently removed.

Edited by anonymous-user on Monday 16th December 10:14

Benbay001

5,795 posts

157 months

Sunday 15th December 2019
quotequote all
Yes, i definitely feel like im missing some incredible knowledge by not being able to speak the lingo.

Simpo Two

85,422 posts

265 months

Sunday 15th December 2019
quotequote all
Tales of making a grand a day are only meaningful if you know the sum invested! Percentage would be more useful.

Cheib

23,248 posts

175 months

Sunday 15th December 2019
quotequote all
Day/Momentum trading is hugely difficult to make money out of...I don’t and wouldn’t do it. Sat/worked on a trading floor for twenty five years....taking risk myself for a few year and then managing others as well.

Key to successful investing/trading is discipline. Human nature is to realise profits and run losses i,e, people are quick to take a 10% profit but generally wait for a 10% loss to come back onside...or lose less.

Your advantage as an individual investor over almost all professional traders/investors is that you can take long term views over six to twelve months based on fundamentals. Every professional has much shorter horizons than that. That’s what I try and do.

Benbay001

5,795 posts

157 months

Monday 16th December 2019
quotequote all
Benbay001 said:
Yes, i definitely feel like im missing some incredible knowledge by not being able to speak the lingo.
The post vanished frown

NRS

22,167 posts

201 months

Monday 16th December 2019
quotequote all
Was there not a post on here a few months back saying it was a sure win on the market going down for the election, as if Labour won then the economic policies would be suicide, and if the Conservatives won then Brexit would happen and so be bad economically too?

Skyedriver

17,854 posts

282 months

Monday 16th December 2019
quotequote all
Jon39 said:

Skyedriver said:
Some of collection increased by really good amounts (e.g. RMG/BT/PSN) but others (BP/RDSB) dropped)
I could have made good bit of profit on Friday early on by selling my PSN then buying it back when it settled but having sat for 15 hours at a Polling Station on the Thursday then watched a good bit of the early results prog, I was pretty well brain numb.

Had a bad week really, saw the pre open news on Ted Baker, shares immediately dropped to mid £200s decided worth a go. HL wouldn't let me access. Eventually got a chance at about 312, decided not worth it as it would probably fall back again, Nope went up to about 340....

I have often wondered whether on average, short-term buying and selling produces better investment returns than long-term holdings?
Slightly off topic, which is about making money from a short-term opportunity, but perhaps this is a related aspect.

You refer to in/out opportunities Skyedriver, so if you keep detailed records of your trading, you might be able to enlighten me about the performance differences.

Except for an initial period of short-term dealings, I have always been a long-term investor.
If you wish to compare, then my 31 year annual average is +12.23% including dividends (year end 2018).
So far the 2019 performance is +16.41%, with a total dividends increase this year of 3.62%.
Holdings have always mostly been big FTSE 100 internationals, many of which have not had any dividend increases during recent years.
I have had zero transaction costs this year.

How does short-term trading compare on an annual measurement basis ?

Edited by Jon39 on Sunday 15th December 13:06
don't do enough to really comment, have a few longer term (divi) type and occasionally pick up a shorter term one, some go up, some don't initially some don't ever.......
Most of my investments (SIPP & ISA) are in funds not individual shares