Brexit will change the mix of cars sold in the UK.

[Troubleatmill]

otolith said:

There is demand for cars. If the only cars you can buy are EVs, there is demand for EVs.

Trabant, Lada, FSO and Yugo being cases in point.

[otolith]

Troubleatmill said:

otolith said:

There is demand for cars. If the only cars you can buy are EVs, there is demand for EVs.

Trabant, Lada, FSO and Yugo being cases in point.

Indeed. Also, the continuing demand amongst Western consumers for ground-based cars even though the long promised flying ones have failed to turn up.

[Terminator X]

otolith said:

Terminator X said:

As someone else posted above, cars need to be zero CO2 by 2040 so the industry will need to massively change over the next 20 years whether in or out of the EU.

"The current Road to Zero strategy aims to see between 50% and 70% of new car sales, and up to 40% of van sales, being “ultra-low emission” by 2030, with only sales of “effectively zero emissions” vehicles by 2040."

Imho the industry will be in chaos during this period as EV demand is not there, yet the manufacturers are forced to build EV.

There is demand for cars. If the only cars you can buy are EVs, there is demand for EVs.

EV only is in the long term and re demand, people can simply keep what they have and not buy an EV.

Govt are attempting to prop EV up at the moment with the low BIK (zero this year then 1% and 2% years after that) thus "encouraging" business users to switch over. Afaik fleet vehicles make up 50% ish of sales so that may help of course assuming businesses can afford to buy them vs ICE which still appears more cost effective RRP vs RRP.

I still maintain that this is / will be a chaotic period for the manufacturers.

TX.

[p4cks]

There's gonna be fewer Jimnys that's for certain

[otolith]

Terminator X said:

otolith said:

Terminator X said:

As someone else posted above, cars need to be zero CO2 by 2040 so the industry will need to massively change over the next 20 years whether in or out of the EU.

"The current Road to Zero strategy aims to see between 50% and 70% of new car sales, and up to 40% of van sales, being “ultra-low emission” by 2030, with only sales of “effectively zero emissions” vehicles by 2040."

Imho the industry will be in chaos during this period as EV demand is not there, yet the manufacturers are forced to build EV.

There is demand for cars. If the only cars you can buy are EVs, there is demand for EVs.

EV only is in the long term and re demand, people can simply keep what they have and not buy an EV.

Most new cars are run on fixed term PCP or lease.

When they have a choice of taking on another PCP or lease on an EV, extending their lease to continue paying to run a car with an old number plate, coughing up the balloon payment that they do not have or going looking for something secondhand, we'll see how much they really care about having a dyno-burner vs having a newer car than the neighbours.

Terminator X said:

I still maintain that this is / will be a chaotic period for the manufacturers.

If it is, that's tough titty really - this has been on the cards long enough that any which have not seen it coming deserve to go under.

[321boost]

irocfan said:

Apologies, I was thinking of the new car merry-go-round.

It strikes me as being incredibly wasteful to get a new (ie 1st owner) car every 2/3 years, surely it's more ecologically sound to get a car and keep it for a longer period (may even until it sts itself and stops working?). It strikes me that these days a car is 'old' if it's past 2012 or so (or maybe that's just the SE?)

As mentioned on here previously: nearly every other new car is (seems to be) an suv of some type or another which, one might imagine, is another environmental dead-end.

Edited by irocfan on Thursday 23 January 17:39

Well I see the every 2-3 year brand new car thing in a positive light. Use it for 2-3 years then leave it for me to buy it at a heavily depreciated price and I’ll run all of them to the ground for you.

[321boost]

df76 said:

Time to get used to it. By 2040 it will be zero g/km (although might quicker than that in the post Brexit world).

I’d rather not get used to it. I’m hopeful, I think this kind of thing happened in the US very early on and the manufacturers de-tuned their big engines. This kind of thing is happening in most of the world yet the manufacturers keep producing powerful cars. They’ve some other tricks up their sleeves such as super credits, some leeway for just developing innovative solutions and perhaps dual alternative fueled cars that run on LPG or Bioethanol and petrol (realise petrol pumps have been putting ‘E5’, I think something might be changing). Although I haven’t looked at all this in a great detail but if my understanding is correct then we have another 10-15 years of petrol cars left which is fine for me. I’ve already thoroughly enjoyed 4,5,6,8,10,12 cylinder engines, made the most of it

OR these foolish politicians will end up killing jobs and a fair bit of the industry therefore there won’t be companies and employed people left to pay the fines, so they lose

Edited by 321boost on Friday 24th January 15:15

Edited by 321boost on Friday 24th January 15:16

[Olivergt]

Suzuki are making changes.

https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&...

Wonder who is next?

I'm going to see if I can get the averages for each manufacturer to see who is likely to be most affected.

[braddo]

otolith said:

Terminator X said:

I still maintain that this is / will be a chaotic period for the manufacturers.

If it is, that's tough titty really - this has been on the cards long enough that any which have not seen it coming deserve to go under.

Something that has struck me since about Christmas is a TV advertising onslaught from manufacturers for their hybrid and EV products. The beginning of 2020 feels like a pivotal moment, where perhaps manufacturers having been holding off as long as they could but now they're all going to be pushing their hybrid/EV products (and a much bigger range of them) from now on.

But stuff like Land Rover and Aston Martin might really struggle. Lotus too (unless they can be considered with Volvo under the Geely umbrella?). I presume Bentley and Rolls are OK as part of the VAG and BMW fleets.

[irocfan]

braddo said:

But stuff like Land Rover and Aston Martin might really struggle. Lotus too (unless they can be considered with Volvo under the Geely umbrella?). I presume Bentley and Rolls are OK as part of the VAG and BMW fleets.

but according to what's been said earlier it would appear that Roll, Bentley, AM and (probably) Lotus won't be able to sell ANY cars in the UK due to corporate emissions levels....

[Blib]

JD said:

For an idea of how much of a problem this is for the big manufacturers:

https://www.paconsulting.com/insights/2019/co2-emi...

Jaguar Land Rover currently facing a potential fine of 400% of their profit.....

Wow. We are sacrificing huge industries here.

Still, it's a great way for government to raid many billions from car manufacturers.

Set impossibly difficult targets. Afix huge fines for failure, then take in the money.

Job jobbed!!!!

[321boost]

Blib said:

Wow. We are sacrificing huge industries here.

Still, it's a great way for government to raid many billions from car manufacturers.

Set impossibly difficult targets. Afix huge fines for failure, then take in the money.

Job jobbed!!!!

I believe this is the end goal i.e induce failure and take in the fines but they seem to be going so aggressively that in 10 years they might not have anything to collect the fines from

[otolith]

irocfan said:

braddo said:

But stuff like Land Rover and Aston Martin might really struggle. Lotus too (unless they can be considered with Volvo under the Geely umbrella?). I presume Bentley and Rolls are OK as part of the VAG and BMW fleets.

but according to what's been said earlier it would appear that Roll, Bentley, AM and (probably) Lotus won't be able to sell ANY cars in the UK due to corporate emissions levels....

There are exemptions for low volume manufacturers, and the option of pooling which would allow Volvo/Lotus.

EU said:

Derogations and exemptions

Manufacturers responsible for fewer than 300 000 new passenger cars registered in the EU in a given year may benefit from exemptions or derogations.

More specifically:

• Manufacturers responsible for between 10 000 and 300 000 cars registered per year (“niche” manufacturers) can apply for a derogation target for the years 2012-2019 equal to a 25% reduction from their 2007 average emissions, and a derogation target from 2020 on of a 45% reduction from the 2007 level.
• Manufacturers responsible for between 1 000 and 10 000 cars registered per year (“small volume” manufacturers) can propose their own derogation target, which has to be approved by the Commission based on the criteria set in the Regulation.
• Manufacturers responsible for fewer than 1 000 cars registered per year are exempted from meeting a specific emissions target, unless they voluntarily apply for a derogation target.

https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehi...

Lotus (and Alpina, and MG) has applied for this and been granted it.

https://circabc.europa.eu/webdav/CircaBC/Climate%2...

Lotus's target for 2017-2021 inclusive is 225g/km.

Their current cars are;

Elise - 174-177 g/km
Exige - 225-230 g/km
Evora - 239-248 g/km

[321boost]

otolith said:

https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehi...

Lotus (and Alpina, and MG) has applied for this and been granted it.

https://circabc.europa.eu/webdav/CircaBC/Climate%2...

Lotus's target for 2017-2021 inclusive is 225g/km.

Their current cars are;

Elise - 174-177 g/km
Exige - 225-230 g/km
Evora - 239-248 g/km

Great! So these guys can make us some big powerful engined cars. I don’t care who the manufacturer is if it’s got 10 cylinders burning petrol and don’t care what the emissions are either

[DonkeyApple]

Olivergt said:

Big changes coming next year when manufacturers have to have an average CO2 figure for cars sold in the UK of 95gm, they are currently running at 127gm, but get away with it, because the rest of the EU is included when working out the average. Next year the UK will be on it's own when calculating the average.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/cars-co2...

However you look at it, it will either mean less models for sale or higher prices for the higher polluting models.

We will remain aligned.

What will change is that we will sign a deal giving the Chinese access to our market so just as we saw Ladas hitting the streets in the 80s we will be getting Chinese cars.

Consumers will also have reduced access to debt so we can expect a reduction in the number of German cars and an increase in French and Asian etc.

Any trade deal will involve granting open access to consumers so maybe we’ll even see Mahindras on the street.

[meatballs]

braddo said:

Olivergt said:

Agreed.

Taxes are aimed at your "Ability to pollute" not your "Actual pollution". Until this mindset changes, we are going to fail to reduce CO2.

Why should someone pay heavily for having a 500g/km car if they only drive 1,000 miles a year. When repmobile man in his Mondeo doing 30k miles a year gets let off because his car only does 80g/km, when in reality he is polluting a lot more.

Sorry to quote again, but bear in mind the first person is paying a few hundred quid more in VED per year, while Mondeo man is forking out over £4k in fuel of which £2-3k is tax? I'm not sure he is getting let off!!

The first person pays just as much proportionately tax on any fuel they use too.

Taxing the problem at the source has a potential triple whammy:

• More efficient cars are more desirable because they save you money on fuel. Better uptake of EV and hybrids. I think this is true for many already, my daily gives good mileage and was one of the biggest factors in my purchase.
• Even in a fuel efficient car it pushes you to think whether the journey is necessary.
• Ring fence any fuel tax into environmental fund/carbon offsetting/etc

It would be so deeply unpopular with voters that it would never happen, haulage firms would protest and there would be some low paid individuals that get screwed on commute costs etc, but it's the logical approach (imo).

[jamoor]

321boost said:

otolith said:

https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/transport/vehi...

Lotus (and Alpina, and MG) has applied for this and been granted it.

https://circabc.europa.eu/webdav/CircaBC/Climate%2...

Lotus's target for 2017-2021 inclusive is 225g/km.

Their current cars are;

Elise - 174-177 g/km
Exige - 225-230 g/km
Evora - 239-248 g/km

Great! So these guys can make us some big powerful engined cars. I don’t care who the manufacturer is if it’s got 10 cylinders burning petrol and don’t care what the emissions are either

They will become a victim of their own success though

[powerstroke]

Butter Face said:

Pappyjohn said:

[

Kind of defeats the whole object of trying to save the planet if other countries are gonna buy whatever they want anyway.

Well yes, take one look at India and it's enough to put you off even trying.

But every step helps etc etc

Sure it helps I feel great !!! who cares about what China and India are doing as long as we are doing the right thing and setting a good example , wadya mean we will go bust and become one of China's investments ..!!!

[wisbech]

DonkeyApple said:

We will remain aligned.

What will change is that we will sign a deal giving the Chinese access to our market so just as we saw Ladas hitting the streets in the 80s we will be getting Chinese cars.

Consumers will also have reduced access to debt so we can expect a reduction in the number of German cars and an increase in French and Asian etc.

Any trade deal will involve granting open access to consumers so maybe we’ll even see Mahindras on the street.

Chinese stuff in Indonesia I have seen ain’t bad. Stuffed full of tech. Here in Australia they are starting to make inroads as the Koreans move upmarket (hire car place near me has refleeted with Chinese cars, and they are also selling in the commercial, as opposed to personal use, Ute/ pickup market)

Of course, many of the Korean and Japanese cars here (OZ) are built in Thailand and India.

Edited by wisbech on Saturday 25th January 00:31

[Fittster]

Ford Fiesta ST and Puma ST prices rise “due to Brexit”



Ford has substantially increased the prices of two of its most popular models for 2021, claiming that the rise is due to additional tariffs on components built outside the UK and EU.

According to UK price lists from December and January, the price of a Fiesta ST in ST-2 trim rose by £1455 at the start of this month. ST-3 and ST Edition models also went up by £1695, meaning the range now tops out at £28,770.

Also more expensive to buy this year is the recently launched Puma ST. That was available to order from September last year priced from £28,495, but this month that base price has increased to £30,415 with no equipment upgrades.

Speaking to Autocar, a Ford UK spokesman confirmed the rise was “all to do with Brexit pricing” because some of the engine components used in the production of both models are sourced from the US.

Those components push the two models over the allowable limit on what proportion of goods can be assembled from parts made outside of the UK and EU for tariff-free access. Known as ‘rules of origin’, it could mean a number of other UK models assembled in the EU from components made elsewhere become significantly more expensive.

https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry-news/f...