Brexit will change the mix of cars sold in the UK.

[Terminator X]

Olivergt said:

Big changes coming next year when manufacturers have to have an average CO2 figure for cars sold in the UK of 95gm, they are currently running at 127gm, but get away with it, because the rest of the EU is included when working out the average. Next year the UK will be on it's own when calculating the average.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/cars-co2...

However you look at it, it will either mean less models for sale or higher prices for the higher polluting models.

Why can't the UK tell the EU to fk off and invent our own rules or is this where you reveal gleefully that "yes YOU voted for it!" ...

TX.

[kambites]

Terminator X said:

Why can't the UK tell the EU to fk off and invent our own rules or is this where you reveal gleefully that "yes YOU voted for it!" ...

TX.

I think one of the government's commitments when it was busy telling all sorts of stories about how great Brexit would be, was that it would keep environmental standards at least in line with the EU's. Whilst I'm sure they'll ultimately break that commitment, it's probably a bit early to do it now.

Besides, if the UK government has any serious intention of keeping any car manufacturing int he UK, it needs to give companies a vested interest in setting up their EV production facilities here.

[df76]

Terminator X said:

Olivergt said:

Big changes coming next year when manufacturers have to have an average CO2 figure for cars sold in the UK of 95gm, they are currently running at 127gm, but get away with it, because the rest of the EU is included when working out the average. Next year the UK will be on it's own when calculating the average.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/cars-co2...

However you look at it, it will either mean less models for sale or higher prices for the higher polluting models.

Why can't the UK tell the EU to fk off and invent our own rules or is this where you reveal gleefully that "yes YOU voted for it!" ...

TX.

Correct, we did vote for it. No manufacturer would produce an engine spec just for the UK market, and as per the post above we can no longer share our higher emissions with our European neighbours. So we have to manage the impact of having much lower emission limits.

It is likely that some manufacturers will start to limit the car types for sale in the UK, basically to drag the averages down asap.

[otolith]

Fittster said:

Ford Fiesta ST and Puma ST prices rise “due to Brexit”

Yeah. But blue passports.

[jamoor]

df76 said:

Correct, we did vote for it. No manufacturer would produce an engine spec just for the UK market, and as per the post above we can no longer share our higher emissions with our European neighbours. So we have to manage the impact of having much lower emission limits.

It is likely that some manufacturers will start to limit the car types for sale in the UK, basically to drag the averages down asap.

You say this but I’ve heard of California spec vehicles in the past.

I’m not sure what that means exactly

[wisbech]

jamoor said:

You say this but I’ve heard of California spec vehicles in the past.

I’m not sure what that means exactly

A lot of regulation is at state level, not federal, in the US. But de facto California tends to set the standard, as they are the strictest and the richest. So rather than Ford making a different vehicle for California vs Kansas say, they design the car to pass California specs, and sell the same in Kansas.

[B'stard Child]

Fittster said:

Ford Fiesta ST and Puma ST prices rise “due to Brexit”<snip>

Just a question - exactly how many old threads are you planning on bumping to the top with your "latest news"

I mean should I avoid PH for a week or a month or maybe the next decade?

[df76]

wisbech said:

jamoor said:

You say this but I’ve heard of California spec vehicles in the past.

I’m not sure what that means exactly

A lot of regulation is at state level, not federal, in the US. But de facto California tends to set the standard, as they are the strictest and the richest. So rather than Ford making a different vehicle for California vs Kansas say, they design the car to pass California specs, and sell the same in Kansas.

That's the way I understand it as well. I believe that the California influence is actually wider than just the States, and can dictate engine development strategy on a much wider scale. The UK lower limits could also influence the European strategy for some, but we would never have our own engine specifications for such a small market (they just won't sell it).

[DonkeyApple]

jamoor said:

df76 said:

Correct, we did vote for it. No manufacturer would produce an engine spec just for the UK market, and as per the post above we can no longer share our higher emissions with our European neighbours. So we have to manage the impact of having much lower emission limits.

It is likely that some manufacturers will start to limit the car types for sale in the UK, basically to drag the averages down asap.

You say this but I’ve heard of California spec vehicles in the past.

I’m not sure what that means exactly

Traditionally it was about taking an existing product and adding those comical bumpers and big catalytic converters.

I'm sure it's more complex than that these days but conversely, it's not hard to give engines different tunes for different regulations.

What's important for people to appreciate is that the EU was tempering the UK's aggressive direction on regulation. Of the 27 member states we were one of the most aggressive pushers of tightening legislation. So firstly, all global regulation is and has been for over two decades working on converging not moving apart so in really simple terms the UK is never going to deviate away from EU regs in the direction some people seem to be thinking. but secondly and much more importantly, there are no longer 26 other groups to temper the lunacy of a group of British people from the Regions who now live on taxpayer benefits and large corporate payments in central London and have an image genetic need to believe that their life choice is superior to all the stupid people they left behind in the Regions and to do whatever it takes to force improvements on these people.

It doesn't matter whether someone voted leave or remain. What's important for everyone to understand is the following:

There is now no group of 26 States to limit the insanity of the type of Briton who is drawn to Westminster. No significant body to stand in the way of anybof their policies and to force rational debate.

Britain was the leader of some of the most aggressive policies within the EU. We weren't the laissez faire body of rational logic. We were a group of zealots desperately wanting to force a better life on its minions.

Everything is going to be a little more expensive.

Immigrations won't stop. It just won't be white Europeans coming in but cheap labour imported from South America, Africa and Asia as part of trade deals.

Same with goods. Fords are mostly made in Germany, certainly the EU. The cost of bringing them in has increased. Do the price rises represent the real cost increase or is Brexit going to be the excuse for every business to raise prices? Well, it's obviously going to be the latter. Any business with any sense will leap on the opportunity to raise margins and blame Brexit. But goods like cars will be central within important trade deals.

It is almost a given that the Ford Fiesta will he toppled as the UKs most popular car by a Chinese product this decade. German manufacturing cannot compete against Chinese which is why the EU has been putting up barriers to the Chinese automotive industry but China's entire intent with their state subsidised manufacturing industry is to export beyond Asia and the trade deal with the UK will include open access to our car market.

If there is any relaxation of vehicle regulations it'll be to allow easier access for such products. Afterall, one of the core drivers within the EU for ever tightening car regulation has been anti competition from cheaper Asian products. Continued tightening of regulation is a robust tool for locking out price competition.

As I ramble, the other consideration is to ask what has changed post Brexit for Asian car manufacturers? Do Koreannor Japanese manufacturers now have greater hurdles to get their products into UK shop floors? Nothing has really changed for them. Conversely all the European manufacturers such as Ford, Vauxhall, VW, BMW, Mercedes, Renault, Peaugeot etc do now have higher costs even if it is just in terms of time to get goods across the Channel. They also have their route to the UK controlled almost completely by the French who can close or stall any element of the transportnof goods from the EU to the UK at a whim more than ever plus with greater incentives to do so.

That alone suggests that over time the cheaper cars and debt from Asia will take market share in the UK from the European manufacturers. At the higher end people will probably just have to pay the higher cost as there isn't much competition to EU manufacturing.

But most of remember when Ladas and Skodas suddenly appeared in the 80s at the bottom end of the market. That was as a result of a trade deal and the same will be for Chinese cars. We will suddenly notice imports direct from Chinese factories on our roads this decade but unlike back in the 80s these will be good products and without the comedy or stigma and they'll take a big chunk of market share, pretty much defined by how much they want to discount to carve out that share.

And of course, we have the 2035 EV target which will skew change very strongly towards Chinese cars as China is the largest manufacturer of EVs on the planet and it dwarfs anything everyone else is doing combined and can bring far greater pricing power to bear. They will hugely dominate the bottom end of the UK EV market by 2035.

[wisbech]

Agree with the above. The UK is much greener than most of the EU (Scandi's excepted) We were the first to go with APD to try and reduce flying (the 1944 Chicago Treaty on aviation means we can't tax international aviation fuel, APD is a workaround) Heathrow has the strictest noise limits of any big airport.

And a lot of immigration is family immigration (i.e. marrying foreigners) that Brexit will have no impact on (apart from closing the Surinder Singh route)

[DonkeyApple]

wisbech said:

Agree with the above. The UK is much greener than most of the EU (Scandi's excepted) We were the first to go with APD to try and reduce flying (the 1944 Chicago Treaty on aviation means we can't tax international aviation fuel, APD is a workaround) Heathrow has the strictest noise limits of any big airport.

And a lot of immigration is family immigration (i.e. marrying foreigners) that Brexit will have no impact on (apart from closing the Surinder Singh route)

That's the thing. With regards to the environment, Westminster is no longer to held back by the Southern European states. As car people we will have taken onboard more swiftly the real implication of Westminster's pulling forward of the EV change to be ahead of the EU for what it is, the first of what will be the general trend of tightening, not loosening of regulation.

For over 1000 years the UK has always been the most regulated nation in Europe and leaving the EU that inhibited that has released us to return to this trend.

[Olivergt]

Terminator X said:

Olivergt said:

Big changes coming next year when manufacturers have to have an average CO2 figure for cars sold in the UK of 95gm, they are currently running at 127gm, but get away with it, because the rest of the EU is included when working out the average. Next year the UK will be on it's own when calculating the average.

https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/cars-co2...

However you look at it, it will either mean less models for sale or higher prices for the higher polluting models.

Why can't the UK tell the EU to fk off and invent our own rules or is this where you reveal gleefully that "yes YOU voted for it!" ...

TX.

It can, the UK can do exactly that, have it's own rules and regulations and specs for cars.

The biggest problem with that is that they will only be able to sell them in the UK as they won't meet the EU rules and regulations.

So they can if they wish start making cars to 2 different specs, one for the UK only market, and one for the EU market.

Or, they can continue to follow EU rules and regulations, so they only need to manufacture to one spec.

I'm pretty certain I know what the manufacturers would want.

P.S. the above scenario applies to all products produced in the UK, if they want to sell to the EU they will have to meet EU standards. So the UK is absolutely free to define and implement it's own rules and regulation, but the reality is it will more than likely match the EU ones for the sake of being able to trade with the EU.

P.P.S. Now that the UK is out of the EU, they have to blindly follow the EU Rules and Regulations if they want to sell to the EU, previously they had a big influence and could steer the Rules and Regulations in their preferred direction.

[markcoopers]

So the pundits predicting a return to the old British Layland cars were not so far out. MG is Chinese and already at the lower price point with EV's and I suspect we will see other old brand names resurrected on the nose and bum of Chinese EV's. Perhaps a new Princess or Dolomite is not such a far flung dream anymore?

[DonkeyApple]

markcoopers said:

So the pundits predicting a return to the old British Layland cars were not so far out. MG is Chinese and already at the lower price point with EV's and I suspect we will see other old brand names resurrected on the nose and bum of Chinese EV's. Perhaps a new Princess or Dolomite is not such a far flung dream anymore?

Is it sensible automotive business to cater for a niche that's mostly in old people's homes?

[Olivergt]

Just found some interesting information on UK/EU Standards:

18. Manufacturing: After 1 January 2022, manufacturers will need to meet two different standards and will have to label products UKCA for the home market, and CE for those exported to the EU, adding costs to certification, manufacturing and stocking.

So more paperwork coming down the line, explicitly linked to Brexit.

This was taken from the following web site:

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/the-davis-downside-...

This also has some interesting commentary:

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2021/01/d...

[DonkeyApple]

Olivergt said:

Just found some interesting information on UK/EU Standards:

18. Manufacturing: After 1 January 2022, manufacturers will need to meet two different standards and will have to label products UKCA for the home market, and CE for those exported to the EU, adding costs to certification, manufacturing and stocking.

So more paperwork coming down the line, explicitly linked to Brexit.

This was taken from the following web site:

https://yorkshirebylines.co.uk/the-davis-downside-...

This also has some interesting commentary:

https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.com/2021/01/d...

There was always going to have to be two sets of paperwork as the whole event was about having two separate markets. This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone this late in the game, given it's the entire, fundamental premise of what this is about.

[powerstroke]

You defeatists assume the huge number of the population that enjoys the freedom and wealth that
Car ownership created is going to continue to
Vote for parties that lick the arses of the green lobby
Who are basically bonkers??

[NMNeil]

jamoor said:

You say this but I’ve heard of California spec vehicles in the past.

I’m not sure what that means exactly

The Federal EPA sets the maximum allowable exhaust emissions from cars and trucks, but the States can set their own limits provided they are stricter than Federal.
California has some of the strictest regulations, and they are rigorously enforced.
https://people.com/celebrity/jesse-james-fined-for...
And now the companies that are selling anything that can disable or delete emission control equipment are being held accountable.
https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-highlights-en...
But it may all be coming to an end in California.
https://www.gov.ca.gov/2020/09/23/governor-newsom-...

[sasha320]

Debaser said:

What happens if not enough people in the UK want to buy low CO2 cars? How will they get the average down?

That’s the point of the legislation.

[Olivergt]

sasha320 said:

Debaser said:

What happens if not enough people in the UK want to buy low CO2 cars? How will they get the average down?

That’s the point of the legislation.

The likely outcome will be the higher CO2 producing cars will increase in price to "encourage" people to buy lower CO2 cars.

The thing that Brexit added was:

Pre Brexit : The average CO2 was taken from the cars sold in the whole of the EU.
Post Brexit : The average is taken from the cars only sold in the UK.

The reason this is a problem is historiclly the UK bought quite a lot of high CO2 cars compared to countries like France, where a lot of low CO2 cars are purchased.